Dublin - Metrolink (Swords to Charlemont only)

cgcsb · 04-07-2022 9:09pm

9.5bn seems very extreme. I wonder has the independent got the wrong end of the stick on this one. The article is so poorly written, I wouldn't be shocked if that's a complete fabrication or borrowed from some document that describes multiple projects. Are major newspapers letting bots write articles or something?

marno21 · 04-07-2022 9:14pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119290776#Comment_119290776

It says between 7.1bn and 12bn most places I’ve read. 9.5bn is the midpoint of the cost forecast range you’d imagine.

Though, some of the cost pressures that would make up that estimate will hopefully be somewhat moderated by then. Energy and steel for starters

[Deleted User] · 04-07-2022 9:19pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119290801#Comment_119290801

While optimism something meant to be celebrated these days I don't see costs falling any time soon and I'd wonder how much inflation they're accounting for. The "wisdom" right up until inflation shot up was that it wasn't going to happen.

Peregrine · 04-07-2022 9:24pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119290776#Comment_119290776

The figure is correct. Includes billions in potential overruns just in case. Final cost will change depending on material and labour costs.

ricimaki · 04-07-2022 11:07pm

As much as I would love to see this get approved and built, putting aside at least €7B, most likely €9B for a metro is not politically viable at the moment, even if its a few hundred million a year to start with. Rural TD's wont stand for this, even though it will likely still pay for itself in a relatively short length of time.

For reference, this is coming in at roughly 40% of the cost of Crossrail in London (£18.6B, €21.5B), a project of an entirely different scale...

I would hope that all TD's would look at the initial costings of metro north of ~€2bn back in 2010, and realise how much of a bargain that is now in hindsight. But... This is Ireland, and this project will likely get cabinet approval, another €250M thrown at it, and then delayed/indefinitely postponed for another few decades...

I wonder how much Dart Underground would cost today...

marno21 · 04-07-2022 11:24pm

This will be done as a PPP so the upfront cost will be limited. On that basis it’ll be a bit more fiscally palatable.

If Eamon Ryan’s genius 2:1 PT:roads ratio is adhered to my roads wish list stands a good chance of coming to life if this goes ahead.

Peregrine · 04-07-2022 11:31pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119291238#Comment_119291238

The preliminary business case already been approved by cabinet.

The final approval only needs to be given in 2024 after the railway order is approved and contracts are drawn up. They'll have a much better idea of costs and cost forecasts by then.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119291294#Comment_119291294

There will be very little spent on MetroLink between now and construction starting in 2025 in the next government's term. Maybe €100m or so on further design, procurement etc.

If your roads wish list comes in at €50m, you're in luck today.

Strumms · 04-07-2022 11:35pm

About six months ago I read that 240 million was spent on the metro.

not a single train has moved, not a single centimetre of track has been laid. Not a single spade has broken ground on a station.

yet not a single TD or minister can give any sort of credible explanation as to why, as to what went wrong, as to who or what persons made a bôllocks of it.

this is OUR money being pissed up against the wall.

OUR metro that is still almost 30 years later, still just drawings and ideas on pages on a computer.

there has to be A reason or reasons. Is nobody willing to provide that answer to taxpayers ?

considering WE are paying for this, it’s OURS ?

where is the accountability ?

strassenwo!f · 05-07-2022 12:08am

One of the projects which was often talked about in the days long ago, around 2005-2010, in relation to the metronorth project and the DART Underground, was the development of a second trunk S-Bahn line across central Munich - now being built - and in many ways similar to the DU plan (though much bigger, at about 12 km of tunnel).

I would certainly be very interested to know how the NTA were pricing the metrolink at 3 billion euro back in just 2018, yet it has jumped in such a short time to 9.5 billion euro.

Interesting too, to see that the German version of the Wikipedia article on Munich's second tunnel has been changed in just the last 64 hours to say this:

"On October 25, 2016, the financing agreement between the federal government, the Free State, the city and the railroad was signed. The symbolic start of construction took place on April 5, 2017.[3] Commissioning was initially planned for 2028, but is now calculated for 2037. At the start of construction, the total costs were estimated at just under 3.2 billion euros, including a risk buffer of just under 3.84 billion euros[4]; in the meantime, total costs of up to 7.2 billion euros are assumed."

(English translation courtesy of deepl.com).

The last bit, in bold, was added, as I say, in the last 64 hours or so, though no citation was given.

I lived in Germany for several years, and it would be a surprise to me if all of these city, State and Federal Government authorities were to work together on financing of a public transport project for so long, yet come up with such a wildly inaccurate figure for the final costs.

I mean, I know there's inflation, but...

72sheep · 05-07-2022 1:12am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119290010#Comment_119290010

€9.5Bn - as an initial quote - is an insult to the Irish people. They're even sending it to ABP for review - and that organisation could not have attracted any more unwanted attention if it tried! Oh and in the same article, the IT assures us that funding is secured to combat the 39 cases of Monkeypox. 39 cases...!!

Still as long as you attended the parade and waved flags then everything will surely be ok ;-)

MyLove4Satan · 05-07-2022 1:44am

Won't be built as they high balled the cost as an excuse to kill it off. Clear as day this is what is going on.

LuckyLloyd · 05-07-2022 7:58am

I run out of things to say, complaints to make. It will clearly never be built and by the time we realise the true cost of that inaction it will be too late.

Peregrine · 05-07-2022 8:33am

Announcement starting soon. Will include a lot of new material.

VonLuck · 05-07-2022 8:33am

Does anyone know anything about actually constructing a metro line? I certainly don't so I'm absolutely no position to comment on the cost. It may not be justified to compare it to other metros as there could be different complications here such as difficult ground conditions, passing beneath historic buildings, rerouting ancient services etc. etc.

It'd be nice to get some independent commentary from someone who knows what they're talking about before jumping up and down about the costs.

jd · 05-07-2022 9:00am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119291526#Comment_119291526

TII commissioned Bent Flyvbjerg to review the costings. He would have compared it to other mega-projects, and would have tried to factor out optimism bias.

http://wiki.doing-projects.org/index.php/Optimism_bias,_Strategic_Misinterpretation_and_Reference_Class_Forecasting_(RCF)

Pete_Cavan · 05-07-2022 9:23am

I wouldn't be surprised if the new cost estimate includes inflation at something close to 10% per year for the next 10 years. In reality, is unlikely to be constantly that high over the period and most contracts would be signed much sooner than 10 years at costs at that time. It will be interesting if they release a detailed breakdown of their estimate.

cgcsb · 05-07-2022 10:05am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119291771#Comment_119291771

I would say it's technically no different than anywhere else in Northern Europe. If anything its less complex because have no existing underground routes to weave through like in cities with long established metros. Also unlike other European capitals we have a lot of overhead services in suburban areas, so less underground conflicts. The electricity grid is less developed so maybe a few more substations than you would see in other countries. Also we'll have to import the machinery and the people where as much bigger markets like Germany or the UK have large domestic specialist construction markets.

The big cost is spiralling material and labour costs. This is happening everywhere

hinfeyg2 · 05-07-2022 10:15am

Anyone know if is there a plan to connect the Luas at the Glasnevin station? Or would the Luas connection be in town?

namloc1980 · 05-07-2022 10:17am

Can't see this going ahead at that cost. Expect a "ministerial review" in a few years once the RO is in place.

JohnnyChimpo · 05-07-2022 10:27am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119292155#Comment_119292155

Nope, they don't go anywhere near each other at that point, though the Glasnevin station will tie in with the rail lines coming in from the west and the Phoenix Park tunnel. Plenty more detail to be had on the Metrolink website about the Luas interchanges

hinfeyg2 · 05-07-2022 10:46am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119292202#Comment_119292202

Thanks

prunudo · 05-07-2022 11:34am

The longer this is dragged out the higher the cost. If it was built in the 80s it would be a fraction of what it will cost now. Equally if it goes for review and looked again in 2040 it will have escalated too. Either we want a metro capable to moving large volumes of people quickly and accept the high cost or we keep the status quo of disjointed public transport and over reliance on buses. If this gets stalled again we have no hope as a nation to move forward.

bennyineire · 05-07-2022 11:41am

Leo on Pat Kenny just stated Rail Way order to be lodged in September and "realistically" construction to start in 2025

Podge_irl · 05-07-2022 11:47am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119291526#Comment_119291526

The "high balled" cost was publicised at the same time that they gave cabinet approval so the logic of something that is supposedly clear as day makes no sense.

Peregrine · 05-07-2022 12:07pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119292585#Comment_119292585

That user only has one mode and it's "MetroLink will be cancelled".

Peregrine · 05-07-2022 12:09pm

New video

https://youtu.be/HswFOddyGvo

Hello 2D Person Below · 05-07-2022 12:20pm

Remarkably unambitious.

The rest of Europe had this stuff 40 years ago.

Those destinations times are abysmal.

20 minutes from the city centre of DUBLIN to the AIRPORT???

You get from London to Lille in 80.

1huge1 · 05-07-2022 12:24pm

Are you serious?

I thought the video was really impressive, most positive and confident I've felt about this project since before the crash.

If you are being serious, I don't know why you think comparing a high speed intercity line with a commuter line is realistic, a more reasonable comparison would be the new Heathrow branch of crossrail which takes 35mins to Paddington.

loyatemu · 05-07-2022 12:26pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119292750#Comment_119292750

you can't compare a high speed intercity line to a metro. There are 10 stops between SSG and the Airport, that accounts for a half of the running time.

timmyntc · 05-07-2022 12:29pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119292750#Comment_119292750

Metros goal is not a shuttle from city centre to airport, any connections to the airport are a bonus - the metro is principally about distributing people across the city. Sure you could go from South to North ends of the line in no time if you cut out all the stops in between!

As for ambition, well you said it yourself the rest of Europe already had this stuff ages ago - we do not. We do not have experience to draw on here, and cannot let the perfect be the enemy of the good. Get it built as quick as, you can add lines in future. The difference something like this would make is massive

Dublin - Metrolink (Swords to Charlemont only)

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