Dublin - Metrolink (Swords to Charlemont only)

cgcsb · 24-06-2022 5:08pm

I've just heard that the department wants TII to undertake a full legal review of the project before submitting a railway order. Looks dead I'm afraid, 1000 cuts.

Hotblack Desiato · 24-06-2022 5:51pm

Never let a good crisis go to waste by not cancelling a major Dublin infrastructure project.

"We'd love to build it, but..." mica / Ukraine / inflation / housing. Take your pick.

yer man! · 25-06-2022 12:15am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119244522#Comment_119244522

What does a full legal review mean? The department is under Eamon Ryan's direction no? He can determine what is asked for and what is not.

JPup · 25-06-2022 12:32am

What department? What would the nature of the review be?

dublinman1990 · 25-06-2022 2:46am

Where is the official source for that information?

Is it from the Dublin Commuter Coalition or something as I cannot find it on Google so far. It sounds very concerning that this full legal review for ML would be done now when it's really close to having it's business case being approved by the cabinet.

If this project is going through a full legal review at this point in time; Do we have any indication of how long that will last before it's railway order being submitted to ABP?

EDIT: I have just found this on Twitter.

https://twitter.com/DublinCommuters/status/1539360466115387395?s=20&t=8fybHUazRmMOudS1__bU6A

It may shed an important light about this apparent legal review on ML if the RO has to submitted to go into the planning system.

cgcsb · 25-06-2022 7:52am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119246529#Comment_119246529

Perhaps he asked for it

cgcsb · 25-06-2022 7:55am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119246770#Comment_119246770

Hasn't been made public, information is from the NTA. A full legal review means whatever the solicitor they hire wants it to mean, so its in their interest to make months of work out of it.

Peregrine · 25-06-2022 9:36am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119244522#Comment_119244522

A legal review of the book of reference? This isn't new. It's a fairly standard process for railway order applications immediately before submission. It started two months ago.

MyLove4Satan · 26-06-2022 2:33am

The metro is not going to happen. That is what is means.

Peregrine · 26-06-2022 2:45am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119250832#Comment_119250832

Does that mean the Cork Line Level Crossings Project won't happen either?

We're like a week away from government approval. Lighten up.

spacetweek · 28-06-2022 2:00pm

Are you saying Cork Level Crossings already had and completed a legal review? (I didn't know)

cgcsb · 30-06-2022 8:42pm

I'm now hearing that the metrolink RO documents are poor. I know that they've had basically no constructive engagement with DART+ and BusConnects teams in terms of construction programme, which is crucial at Glasnevin and apparently they've told Irish Rail where to go on that front. They're now printing documents containing drawings of interfaces with very early drafts of bus connects. No serious market consultation has happened and the preliminary design documents are very weak, less than a dozen typical cross sections, completely insufficient utility diversion information etc. They're long way off a successful RO application. I get the sense metrolink is very much being ran by the wrong team, it's 90% ego and very little planning or construction experience.

In better news Bus Connects has 3 corridors in for planning and more to come. DART+ Maynooth line is gone to printers and ready to submit for RO by end of July.

cgcsb · 01-07-2022 7:22pm

I have more information as of today. Metrolink will delay their RO submission untill late September, the NTA are now also demanding that Irish Rail come to some legal agreement with metrolink/TII before submitting their RO for the Maynooth line. This may also delay the DART which was otherwise good to go at the end of July. That could now push to the end of August

Hotblack Desiato · 01-07-2022 9:25pm

As Michael Biehn said in The Terminator...

What year?

Peregrine · 02-07-2022 12:51am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119277508#Comment_119277508

It's been September for a while now, sadly. Since March, I think. They haven't said that publicly though. They will have to soon.

VeryOwl · 02-07-2022 10:33am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119278645#Comment_119278645

Every target and revised target has been missed and so will the September one.

CatInABox · 04-07-2022 5:06pm

https://twitter.com/DublinCommuters/status/1543985229580406784?t=4hAHQKAz2kOv8pfhr9y5Rw&s=19

Approved by cabinet today, apparently. About time.

donvito99 · 04-07-2022 5:12pm

9.5bn, wow.

loyatemu · 04-07-2022 5:15pm

€9.5bn!

Podge_irl · 04-07-2022 5:24pm

Probably be more than that by the end of it, but it would cost more to not build it in lost economic output.

cgcsb · 04-07-2022 5:26pm

Clearly a story written as a pretext for project cancellation. There is no way that €9.5bn will be paid for a single public transport project in this country. If policy changes to seriously deprioritising cars, a surface route could be delivered on all arterial routes for less money, journey times would be slightly longer than metro but I don't see how such a price tag can be justified when we have the road space, we just need to take it from cars and give it to PT and cycling.

marno21 · 04-07-2022 5:46pm

€9.5bn for a 19km partially underground tram is **** mental pricing. I can see there being big backlash at that price in the ever continuing rural vs urban debate.

It may be time for a greater debate in the western world about how much projects like this are costing. This is mental stuff at the end of the day.

Peregrine · 04-07-2022 5:48pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119289929#Comment_119289929

No, this is a post-NCH price tag with significant cost overruns built in and taking recent inflation into account. Arriving at these figures is why the business case review took a year. They're not lowballing it.

I would have preferred if they lowballed it.

mikeybhoy · 04-07-2022 6:06pm

Construction not beginning until 2031 and not finishing until 2034 is not good enough. Construction needs to start ASAP. When construction starts it will be likely be delayed further so pushing 2035/36. If they started in the next 2 years it could be complete by 2028/29 I'd say so why the delay.

Peregrine · 04-07-2022 6:14pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119290085#Comment_119290085

It'll start well before 2031.

Pete_Cavan · 04-07-2022 6:14pm

The article says "The metro will be built between 2031 and 2034, ministers will be told."

It then says "The procurement process is set to begin by 2026, which is expected to take at least two years and then it will take a further nine years to build the metro.".

The article seems a bit of a mess, better waiting for the actual info tomorrow.

Podge_irl · 04-07-2022 6:24pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119290020#Comment_119290020

We shall see, but given current inflation and the timescale of the project I'd still be surprised. I'd build it at twice the price so I don't care ultimately.

Podge_irl · 04-07-2022 6:25pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119290085#Comment_119290085

Built between 2031 and 2034 should be finished within those years I think? Its a terribly written article but procurement is already happening and shovels should be in the ground long, long before 2031 (and it would take far more than 3 years to build anyway).

prunudo · 04-07-2022 7:14pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119290085#Comment_119290085

Hopefully it means completed by then. Would imagine construction would take longer than 3 years. Yhink the port tunnel was 5 years.

gjim · 04-07-2022 9:01pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119290010#Comment_119290010

It's insane money. The fully-underground new metro lines in Paris cost less than half that per km.

Dropping the southern section to Sandyford has really screwed the project. The upgrade between Sandyford and Charlemont would have cost relatively little and pushed the overall cost per km into much saner territory.

cgcsb · 04-07-2022 9:09pm

9.5bn seems very extreme. I wonder has the independent got the wrong end of the stick on this one. The article is so poorly written, I wouldn't be shocked if that's a complete fabrication or borrowed from some document that describes multiple projects. Are major newspapers letting bots write articles or something?

marno21 · 04-07-2022 9:14pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119290776#Comment_119290776

It says between 7.1bn and 12bn most places I’ve read. 9.5bn is the midpoint of the cost forecast range you’d imagine.

Though, some of the cost pressures that would make up that estimate will hopefully be somewhat moderated by then. Energy and steel for starters

04-07-2022 9:19pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119290801#Comment_119290801

While optimism something meant to be celebrated these days I don't see costs falling any time soon and I'd wonder how much inflation they're accounting for. The "wisdom" right up until inflation shot up was that it wasn't going to happen.

Peregrine · 04-07-2022 9:24pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119290776#Comment_119290776

The figure is correct. Includes billions in potential overruns just in case. Final cost will change depending on material and labour costs.

ricimaki · 04-07-2022 11:07pm

As much as I would love to see this get approved and built, putting aside at least €7B, most likely €9B for a metro is not politically viable at the moment, even if its a few hundred million a year to start with. Rural TD's wont stand for this, even though it will likely still pay for itself in a relatively short length of time.

For reference, this is coming in at roughly 40% of the cost of Crossrail in London (£18.6B, €21.5B), a project of an entirely different scale...

I would hope that all TD's would look at the initial costings of metro north of ~€2bn back in 2010, and realise how much of a bargain that is now in hindsight. But... This is Ireland, and this project will likely get cabinet approval, another €250M thrown at it, and then delayed/indefinitely postponed for another few decades...

I wonder how much Dart Underground would cost today...

marno21 · 04-07-2022 11:24pm

This will be done as a PPP so the upfront cost will be limited. On that basis it’ll be a bit more fiscally palatable.

If Eamon Ryan’s genius 2:1 PT:roads ratio is adhered to my roads wish list stands a good chance of coming to life if this goes ahead.

Peregrine · 04-07-2022 11:31pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119291238#Comment_119291238

The preliminary business case already been approved by cabinet.

The final approval only needs to be given in 2024 after the railway order is approved and contracts are drawn up. They'll have a much better idea of costs and cost forecasts by then.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119291294#Comment_119291294

There will be very little spent on MetroLink between now and construction starting in 2025 in the next government's term. Maybe €100m or so on further design, procurement etc.

If your roads wish list comes in at €50m, you're in luck today.

Strumms · 04-07-2022 11:35pm

About six months ago I read that 240 million was spent on the metro.

not a single train has moved, not a single centimetre of track has been laid. Not a single spade has broken ground on a station.

yet not a single TD or minister can give any sort of credible explanation as to why, as to what went wrong, as to who or what persons made a bôllocks of it.

this is OUR money being pissed up against the wall.

OUR metro that is still almost 30 years later, still just drawings and ideas on pages on a computer.

there has to be A reason or reasons. Is nobody willing to provide that answer to taxpayers ?

considering WE are paying for this, it’s OURS ?

where is the accountability ?

strassenwo!f · 05-07-2022 12:08am

One of the projects which was often talked about in the days long ago, around 2005-2010, in relation to the metronorth project and the DART Underground, was the development of a second trunk S-Bahn line across central Munich - now being built - and in many ways similar to the DU plan (though much bigger, at about 12 km of tunnel).

I would certainly be very interested to know how the NTA were pricing the metrolink at 3 billion euro back in just 2018, yet it has jumped in such a short time to 9.5 billion euro.

Interesting too, to see that the German version of the Wikipedia article on Munich's second tunnel has been changed in just the last 64 hours to say this:

"On October 25, 2016, the financing agreement between the federal government, the Free State, the city and the railroad was signed. The symbolic start of construction took place on April 5, 2017.[3] Commissioning was initially planned for 2028, but is now calculated for 2037. At the start of construction, the total costs were estimated at just under 3.2 billion euros, including a risk buffer of just under 3.84 billion euros[4]; in the meantime, total costs of up to 7.2 billion euros are assumed."

(English translation courtesy of deepl.com).

The last bit, in bold, was added, as I say, in the last 64 hours or so, though no citation was given.

I lived in Germany for several years, and it would be a surprise to me if all of these city, State and Federal Government authorities were to work together on financing of a public transport project for so long, yet come up with such a wildly inaccurate figure for the final costs.

I mean, I know there's inflation, but...

72sheep · 05-07-2022 1:12am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119290010#Comment_119290010

€9.5Bn - as an initial quote - is an insult to the Irish people. They're even sending it to ABP for review - and that organisation could not have attracted any more unwanted attention if it tried! Oh and in the same article, the IT assures us that funding is secured to combat the 39 cases of Monkeypox. 39 cases...!!

Still as long as you attended the parade and waved flags then everything will surely be ok ;-)

MyLove4Satan · 05-07-2022 1:44am

Won't be built as they high balled the cost as an excuse to kill it off. Clear as day this is what is going on.

LuckyLloyd · 05-07-2022 7:58am

I run out of things to say, complaints to make. It will clearly never be built and by the time we realise the true cost of that inaction it will be too late.

Peregrine · 05-07-2022 8:33am

Announcement starting soon. Will include a lot of new material.

VonLuck · 05-07-2022 8:33am

Does anyone know anything about actually constructing a metro line? I certainly don't so I'm absolutely no position to comment on the cost. It may not be justified to compare it to other metros as there could be different complications here such as difficult ground conditions, passing beneath historic buildings, rerouting ancient services etc. etc.

It'd be nice to get some independent commentary from someone who knows what they're talking about before jumping up and down about the costs.

jd · 05-07-2022 9:00am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119291526#Comment_119291526

TII commissioned Bent Flyvbjerg to review the costings. He would have compared it to other mega-projects, and would have tried to factor out optimism bias.

http://wiki.doing-projects.org/index.php/Optimism_bias,_Strategic_Misinterpretation_and_Reference_Class_Forecasting_(RCF)

Pete_Cavan · 05-07-2022 9:23am

I wouldn't be surprised if the new cost estimate includes inflation at something close to 10% per year for the next 10 years. In reality, is unlikely to be constantly that high over the period and most contracts would be signed much sooner than 10 years at costs at that time. It will be interesting if they release a detailed breakdown of their estimate.

cgcsb · 05-07-2022 10:05am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119291771#Comment_119291771

I would say it's technically no different than anywhere else in Northern Europe. If anything its less complex because have no existing underground routes to weave through like in cities with long established metros. Also unlike other European capitals we have a lot of overhead services in suburban areas, so less underground conflicts. The electricity grid is less developed so maybe a few more substations than you would see in other countries. Also we'll have to import the machinery and the people where as much bigger markets like Germany or the UK have large domestic specialist construction markets.

The big cost is spiralling material and labour costs. This is happening everywhere

hinfeyg2 · 05-07-2022 10:15am

Anyone know if is there a plan to connect the Luas at the Glasnevin station? Or would the Luas connection be in town?

namloc1980 · 05-07-2022 10:17am

Can't see this going ahead at that cost. Expect a "ministerial review" in a few years once the RO is in place.

JohnnyChimpo · 05-07-2022 10:27am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119292155#Comment_119292155

Nope, they don't go anywhere near each other at that point, though the Glasnevin station will tie in with the rail lines coming in from the west and the Phoenix Park tunnel. Plenty more detail to be had on the Metrolink website about the Luas interchanges

Dublin - Metrolink (Swords to Charlemont only)

Comments