FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Summer 2022 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**
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31-05-2022 10:06pm#1
Mod Note
This thread is for posting/discussing/analyzing FI CHARTS ONLY i.e. Charts in the unreliable time frame, generally long range +T120 onward for Summer 2022.
If your post does not specifically relate to a Fantasy Island chart (extended long range charts) then it doesn't belong here - Off topic posts will be moved or deleted.
Thanks
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The past year has generally been dominated by areas of high pressure ridging over Ireland with generally warm and dry conditions. Autumn 2021 was unseasonably warm at times and very humid and often dry. Winter 2021/2022 was warm and a non eventful winter. We did have a few weeks of very wet conditions only to go back to dry and settled soon afterwards. Spring was generally warm and settled but May has been a shift to a more unsettled and cooler pattern as time went on. We ended the final day of Spring on a very chilly and dank note. Overall we've had almost a year of warmer than average temperatures and many settled months with only the odd interupption from the Atlantic with a few wet weeks scattered here and there.
How is the early part of Summer 2022 going to play out? At the moment there is alot of uncertainty about the weather after a few days time. The GFS has been fairly grim over the past week showing a fairly unsettled outlook for the first half of June. The other models aren't much better.
There is hope that we may begin to see an improvement for the second half of June with ridging from the Azores high and a lift up in temperatures to bring a sense of summer. We are currently in a relatively unsettled and cool pattern but things should begin to warm up slightly from this weekend and into next week. This weekend should be drier than recently but areas of low pressure may begin to bring back unsettled conditions into next week.
The GFS 12z keeps us generally unsettled as areas of high pressure tries to ridge towards us but never quiet makes it.
We generally look Atlantic driven over the coming 2 weeks with hints that maybe things might begin to settle down from mid month. I am hoping for a shift to warmer and drier conditons in the models by next week.
Post edited by Gonzo on13
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GFS ensemble for the next 2 weeks is as wet as i've ever seen for 'summer'.
I'm starting to get a real Summer of 2007 vibe from the latest set of charts/models. This is going to be a wet June. I think it's safe to say the year long relatively dry and warm pattern is well and truly over since the 3rd week of May and this looks like continuing well into June, possibly getting to the 3rd week of June.
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GFS 00z gives a slight hint towards things settling down at the very end of it's run. It stays very unsettled until June 18th and finally we get a ridge in from the Azores by the 20th. Some very small baby steps towards summer.
The CFS extended is also looking to build some warmth and high pressure around a similar time. It's worth noting this is very unreliable stuff.
I feel like it's mid winter and i'm back clutching at straws again wishing against the power of the Atlantic.
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A low to medium chance of a summer wind and rain storm in about a weeks time between 10th and 12th of June. This would bring very windy, cool and wet conditons to Ireland if it verifies.
ECM has it too but not as windy, just a very wet system crossing the country.
GEM has it too, could be quite windy and very wet.
Hopefully this passes more to our north and avoids us, but it's something to keep an eye on. Regardless we are in for a very unseasonal spell of weather which may feel quite autumnal over the next 7 to 14 days.
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This is probably an outlier but a surge of heat across Spain and France towards the end of the GFS run, gets the +28 uppers almost into the north of France and the +20 into south coast of England. Surface temperatures in France would widely get into the 40s with this. This is even warm enough to get surface temperatures beyond 21C into Ireland.
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GFS is starting to hint at an improving situation in the weather after a very dissapointing start to the summer so far. Up to a day or two ago, this coming weekend was looking like a washout but not it's not looking too bad and could stay mostly dry. Great news for those heading to the Duran Duran outdoor gig on Sunday.
A ridge of high pressure should keep us mostly dry from Sunday afternoon and much of next week is looking dry especially in southern and eastern areas.
Monday and Tuesday should stay dry throughout the country courtesy of that ridge. After Tuesday things get a bit uncertain in how settled we get or does the Atlantic roll in. Currently it's looking like the Atlantic may actually have a battle on it's hands with this high pressure. The GFS 6z keeps the ridge going over eastern, southern, south-western and central parts of the country.
The far north and north-west of the country may be more unsettled with Atlantic systems closeby to our north-west during Wednesday and Thursday. It remains to be seen if the high pressure will win and push these frontal systems away from the north-west or will the Atlantic win and topple over us resuming an unsettled pattern.
On This mornings models the high pressure wins the battle for a while and briefly introduces medium to signifcant levels of heat throughout the country next Saturday. For now I would still take this with a major bucket of salt. It wouldn't take much adjustment for these big lows in the Atlantic to cut us off from the warmth and sunshine.
Temperatures would reach mid to high 20s widely across the country next Saturday if this verified with a 30C possible for Shannon Airport. In reality we are unlikely to get this lucky and even if we do, this warm pulse of air won't last very long over us.
In terms of rainfall the next 10 days could be largely dry with most of the rain falling between now and Saturday night. There is a chance southern and eastern areas will remain fairly dry throughout the coming week.
From next Sunday the models suggest things will be turning signifcantly cooler again as the Atlantic wins the battle at the very end and we are instantly cut off from any warmth.
In the very extended range we open up the artic expressway with a direct notherly plunge, the sort of thing we dream about all winter and never get.
If this verified it would turn things very cool indeed and plenty of showers or rain as it isn't the dry northerly topplers we get in winter. This would be a snowmaker if it was November to March with those areas of low pressures d.
We finish up week 3 of June on a very cool and unsettled note.
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Difficult to determine how next weekend will pan out. Could be a case of 2 halves, warm and settled on Saturday and cold and wet on the Sunday. We will need a few more days before we know what will happen. From Sunday it looks mostly dry but the models do indicate things turning unsettled very quickly through next weekend as we get a sudden breakdown from very warm to cool and this could be potentially thundery as well.
From midweek temperatures will lift up, but there is alot of scatter involved in how warm or even hot it could get by Friday or Saturday. Thiswarm spell looks rather short lived maybe not lasting more than 2 or 3 days at most but we are looking at anything from low to medium level warmth up to high level.
let's see what this evenings ECM brings. ECM this morning was also very warm for next weekend but more high pressure orientated rather than plumey burst of short lived heat.
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Tonights ECM operational wasn't great for warmth next weekend, it does get warm but it's very short lived. However the various ECM runs are now showing some very warm to hot potential with many of the runs between +15 and +20C upper air temperature which if verified would get us into the high 20s at least. There are also cooler outliers which rollin the atlantic instead or bring down a cold northerly quickly. However the majority of the runs bring warmth low to mid level. Overall the ECM set of ensembles are warmer than the set of GFS charts.
GEM also going for very warm to hot temperatures next weekend. Several of the GEM members are going quite a deal warmer than the operational temperatures below with high 20s to low 30s a possibility.
The GFS pub run is rolling out and is having none of this warmth next weekend. Will we get heat next weekend or will it be a bust and we end up cool and possibly unsettled? Still a few more days to go on this one I feel.
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The models are bringing this warmth a bit earlier, possibly peaking on Friday (if it happens at all) and an increasingly unsettled and cool pattern for next weekend and beyond. Aside from a few hours yesterday this June has been a pigs ear so far so right now i'd happily take 1 very warm or hot day because once this 24 hour wonder is whisked away we look like we'll be back in the chilly and unsettled pattern which has dominated this June.
While these heat spike seem common as muck for England, particularly London, these are very rare indeed for Ireland and I'd like to see this actually come off for once.
Just for fun this mornings ECM ensemble graph has some crazy hot outliers which I feel are impossible to pull off in Ireland with the hottest one getting close to +25C. We rarely see uppers hotter than +15 in this country, not sure we've ever had a +20C on Irish soil during modern times.
If this heat spike does happen we are most likely to have a 24 hour window of uppers around +10 and not the oven like temperatures of the hot outliers on the ECM.
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The GFS 12z is almost an outlier. Gets Dublin to about 24C on the Thursday and Saturday and about 26C on the Friday. Get's London near 38C on the Saturday with parts of central France to about 42 or 43C. If it verified the thunderstorms on the Sunday over France would be quite something. The 12z also showing minor thunderstorm potential for Ireland and major stuff over the UK and France.
In reality we're looking at temperatures low 20s rather than the extreme hot outliers.
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ECM looks good for 3 days but when you check the temperature it's really only a 36 hour plume of warmth. The warmth get's going in the second half of Thursday afternoon low twenties.
and on Friday is stays until the evening and washed away by Saturday morning.
GEM restricts the warmth to just Friday and in the southern half of the country.
The Icon doens't get it to us at all at least on this mornings run.
GFS turns us warm on the Thursday and into Friday and Saturday.
Out of all these the GFS is the hottest, also the temperatures on the GFS are usually down by 2 to 3C during the summer. I highly doubt we will get the Saturday out of this, the cool air will have whisked the warmth away by then.
Tomorrow the models could look different again.
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The GFS 6z not great for warmth away from the far east and south, however the 00z was much warmer but an outlier.
ECM also not as widespread or warm as yesterdays runs.
Plenty of changes to come before we become certain of how warm it could get or if we're lining ourselves up for a complete bust instead. This mornings models looks to be more like a glancing blow of warmth.
The Icon is the only model not going for any warmth whatsoever for Ireland and the UK, instead it keeps the heat no further north than northern France and rolls in the Atlantic next Friday. The Icon was the only model which was correct before Christmas as it did not predict any cold spell while the other models ended up in total failure. I wonder is the Icon correct this time also.
Post edited by Gonzo on1
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