FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Summer 2022 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**
Comments
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ECM/GEM 12z are both fine and warm for next week with hints of a breakdown towards Friday.
Icon brings a cool breakdown as early as Tuesday afternoon.
Great uncertainty remains about next week. Will we have a breakdown on Monday but it could be Tuesday. It also could be late Thursday or sometime on Friday into Saturday. This needs another few days before we can be sure what way next week will go.
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Looks like a front moving down the country on Tuesday next, weakening as it goes from NW to SE, not as warm as the weekend but could still get up around 20 or so in places before the rain knocks it back a bit. A lot of dry weather for the rest of the week it would seem, some rain in the north of the country later in the week perhaps, fog might be a feature at times. Temperatures perhaps getting into the low 20's , signs that it could get quite warm widespread again towards the weekend into the mid 20s.
Both GFS and ECM look very similar, weekend of the 15 -17th one to watch with some very high temperatures projected for France and the UK, will we see into the high 20's for Ireland ? Looks like a plume of tropical sourced warm air heading our way perhaps, that shallow Low to our S at the end of the run has been showing up for a number of runs, could act in our favour for a blast of very warm weather and of course an extra interest to those that like to observe thunderstorms, a good bit off but has been a feature for a lot of runs now.
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A possible warm to very warm spike for next Friday and Saturday. Will need to be watched. For the Uk this could be excessive heat but for us it should be something much more manageable, around 23 to 26C possible over the Friday and Saturday.
Those temperatures look on the low side considering we have close to +20 uppers across the country but perhaps the briefness of it all limits the temperature potential. Still looks like next weekend will be fairly warm to very warm after a cooler interlude from Tuesday to Thursday next week.
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Next weekend looking very warm to hot now on the ECM with temperatures across Ireland between 8 and 12C above normal. The cool spell from Tuesday to Thursday looks downgraded a bit with more in the way of warm weather with temperatures generally staying in the low 20s during the middle part of next week. Very difficult to access Wetterzentrale at the moment since the ECM 12z started rolling out, normally this happens in the winter whenever we see dream winter charts.
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Ouch looking hot when you arrive in Majorca glightning, doesn't look to drop below 20C during the night, but you must love the heat going in July 😀.
The plume of warm to hot air heading for Ireland around that weekend very much there from the ECM, not as prominent on the GFS but showing it briefly, the longer range GFS showing warm weather to continue after the weekend also but that is far off.
ECM stops at 12.00 Sun 17th but already showing it reaching 27C in places by then, this is only an indication of how warm it could get if it verifies, been showing it now though for quite a number of runs so looking very warm at least to hot. Dare I say there could be a heat event around that weekend?
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Next Sunday looks very warm to hot. Some extreme heat again for the UK. Ireland could see a 31 or 32C out of this. The operational isn't the hottest chart either, there are 5 other GFS members going warmer than the above for Ireland and the UK.
Many of the models now going for a 3 day warm to hot spell next Friday to Sunday with temperatures mid twenties widely and high twenties locally. If this does verify I hope there is some sun.
Post edited by Gonzo on6 -
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ECM has changed though, they are trading places. Showing the Atlantic breaking trough and that area of LP that earlier looked favorable to bring up Tropical airs only doing half the job 😁, now being charted to quickly link up with the Atlantic low, in fact latest run showing wetter then earlier runs, still showing being warm or very warm Sat but breaking down Sun into Mon.
But as ever early days, ECM went from hot to breaking down earlier, GFS went from average to hot so a few more twists and turns no doubt, still a chance of a warm to very warm day in the weekend but not sure which one.
Can see the stark difference between the GFS and ECM below.
Signs of the AZORES High building again from the ECM
Looking at the temperatures for Spain coming up and looks sizzling if not dangerously hot.
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GFS 18z is going for 30C in Cork next weekend, with the GFS models you can always add on and extra few degrees so this could techically get Cork to 33C and 44C north-east of London if it verified.
Edit: inland cork, not the city itself.
the spell of rain on Tuesday is also getting downgraded bigtime.
Post edited by Gonzo on4
