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FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Summer 2022 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**
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Next weekend looking very warm to hot now on the ECM with temperatures across Ireland between 8 and 12C above normal. The cool spell from Tuesday to Thursday looks downgraded a bit with more in the way of warm weather with temperatures generally staying in the low 20s during the middle part of next week. Very difficult to access Wetterzentrale at the moment since the ECM 12z started rolling out, normally this happens in the winter whenever we see dream winter charts.
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Ouch looking hot when you arrive in Majorca glightning, doesn't look to drop below 20C during the night, but you must love the heat going in July 😀.
The plume of warm to hot air heading for Ireland around that weekend very much there from the ECM, not as prominent on the GFS but showing it briefly, the longer range GFS showing warm weather to continue after the weekend also but that is far off.
ECM stops at 12.00 Sun 17th but already showing it reaching 27C in places by then, this is only an indication of how warm it could get if it verifies, been showing it now though for quite a number of runs so looking very warm at least to hot. Dare I say there could be a heat event around that weekend?
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Next Sunday looks very warm to hot. Some extreme heat again for the UK. Ireland could see a 31 or 32C out of this. The operational isn't the hottest chart either, there are 5 other GFS members going warmer than the above for Ireland and the UK.
Many of the models now going for a 3 day warm to hot spell next Friday to Sunday with temperatures mid twenties widely and high twenties locally. If this does verify I hope there is some sun.
Post edited by Gonzo on6 -
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ECM has changed though, they are trading places. Showing the Atlantic breaking trough and that area of LP that earlier looked favorable to bring up Tropical airs only doing half the job 😁, now being charted to quickly link up with the Atlantic low, in fact latest run showing wetter then earlier runs, still showing being warm or very warm Sat but breaking down Sun into Mon.
But as ever early days, ECM went from hot to breaking down earlier, GFS went from average to hot so a few more twists and turns no doubt, still a chance of a warm to very warm day in the weekend but not sure which one.
Can see the stark difference between the GFS and ECM below.
Signs of the AZORES High building again from the ECM
Looking at the temperatures for Spain coming up and looks sizzling if not dangerously hot.
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GFS 18z is going for 30C in Cork next weekend, with the GFS models you can always add on and extra few degrees so this could techically get Cork to 33C and 44C north-east of London if it verified.
Edit: inland cork, not the city itself.
the spell of rain on Tuesday is also getting downgraded bigtime.
Post edited by Gonzo on4 -
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And just like that ECM back with warm to hot temperatures over next weekend with Sunday now being the main focus as the warmer day showing temperatures up to 28C on the latest run, the chart below is for 13.00 and next one is for 19.00 and showing 28C in the S / SE so would expect mid to high 20'S for large parts of the country going by this run not nailed down yet but something is afoot now that it is turning up more and more, would want to see a few runs showing this to become a bit more sure, Sat and Mon could see temps getting up t o 25C or so according to the 0Z.
GFS showing getting up to 31C and widespread 25C+ , not as outragouss as it first appeared given what the ECM is now showing too.
GFS show's up to 27C for Sat and another 30C for Mon and up to 25C for Tues.
The area of LP to the S is the key, now staying much lower around Biscay helping to guide in the warm plume of air.
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GFS 12z could deliver 33C in parts of Cork, Clare or Limerick next Sunday with widespread low 30s across the southern half of Ireland.
Icon not as hot but still hot.
GEM the coolest of the lot with warmth restricted to south eastern half of Ireland.
Interesting times ahead. I would dearly love our 33C record to be finally matched and beaten, if futher upgrades happen we could be looking at 34C, however this is almost a week away and what goes wrong will go wrong and we will end up probably mid to high twenties with a few places scraping 30C. For any of this to verify we need it to be clear unbroken gin blue skies and not a cloudfest. If we end up with too much cloud across the country forget about temperatures going much above 24C.
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UKMO keeps the warmth restricted to just one day (next Saturday) and looks more realistic compared to the GFS.
As of now all models are going for some very warm weather next weekend but the GFS definitely still the warmest and lasts for almost 3 days.
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