Convective/Thunderstorm Discussion: Summer 2022

Shallow LP with an occluded front to cross the country tomorrow with associated upper low . CAPE readings not great, maybe a couple of hundred J/kg and very skinny but with the upper cold pool and very decent DLS and some LLS available big embedded convective showers are possible and maybe some electrified in the midlands / E / N or thereabouts, maybe a few funnels also are possible I would think. slow moving pivoting system, maybe too messy and too much dense cloud for sparks, poor temperatures under the bulk of the cloud and rain, not bad in the SE, SW where it should get into the high teens.

Friday interest also and worth keeping an eye over the weekend to see if we get any imports from the UK as a Theta'W plume just about reaches the SE late Sat night Early Sun morning or so as the same upper low migrates again over Ireland aiding instability, will see.