Convective/Thunderstorm Discussion: Summer 2022
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Could get a storm anywhere I would think but quite isolated , chance of a storm definitely increasing in the Eastern half of the country and probably peaking more towards the coasts. Good chance of a few sizeable storms with heavy rain, might even get a bit of hail.
From ESTOFEX
... Ireland ...
Daytime driven LLCAPE increase with values up to 400 J/kg LLCAPE augment the temporal risk of a few funnel/short-lived tornadoes, but the general risk is too marginal for a broad level 1 area.
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Trough and the coldest of the associated upper airs would seem to pass over the W , NW and N .
Aided by LLS and DLS could lead to some isolated thunderstorms and heavy convective showers , a few funnels also maybe, a bit marginal perhaps in the messy set up with limited surface heating but with topography aiding lift might just pop off a few storms.
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From Dan Holley on Convective Weather. Interesting to see how this develops.
Day 2 Convective Outlook
VALID 06:00 UTC Tue 28 Jun 2022 - 05:59 UTC Wed 29 Jun 2022
ISSUED 20:12 UTC Mon 27 Jun 2022
ISSUED BY: Dan
Longwave upper trough will drift slowly eastwards across Ireland and western Britain on Tuesday, while a shortwave lifts northeastwards during Tuesday daytime. Strong mid/upper tropospheric flow will create a strongly-sheared environment, and as such there may be broken line segments on the rear side of the frontal rain that crosses Ireland during the morning hours. Forecast profiles appear to be very moist with weak instability, suggesting the lightning risk is rather low - but a brief spell of heavy rain/gusty winds will be possible. The front should clear reasonably quickly to allow sufficient heating of the residual moist airmass (dewpoints 11-14C) over Ireland, yielding 200-500 J/kg MLCAPE across central/northern areas. Bands of heavy showers will likely develop and migrate northeastwards during the afternoon and evening hours. Given modest instability and 30-50kts 0-6km shear, a few thunderstorms seem plausible - perhaps especially close to the north coast and then points offshore towards W Scotland. A couple of fairly active storms, with tops perhaps exceeding 21,000ft, may be possible given the magnitude of shear compensating for limited CAPE.
Winds appear fairly unidirectional throughout the profile, suggesting the potential for linear features that may train over similar areas, and also tending to limit the tornado risk - however, locally backed surface winds near the Ulster coast may provide an opportunity for some low-level rotation as convection approaches and moves offshore. The strongest cells may produce local gusts of 40-50mph and hail up to 1cm in diameter; the fast storm motion should limit the risk of surface water flooding - and so all in all this is deemed below SVR criteria (that said, where cells train over similar areas then this could produce some locally high rainfall totals).
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Cloudtops getting quite high in parts of the midlands at the moment with some very heavy showers around there now, moving east. Could be some sparks in the eastern half of the country in the next couple of hours. Checks CCTV at the house in Longford and there's a downpour there at the moment.
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