Convective/Thunderstorm Discussion: Summer 2022
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The GFS 6z looks fairly volatile for Ireland on Friday and lasting throughout next weekend and on the Monday. Might be worth keeping an eye on to see if these charts still verify in a few days time.
As this is so far out this will probably come to nothing as usual but we shall see.
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A combination of increased Theta-W , upper trough with associated cold pool , converging winds, lift from topography, upper and lower shear could produce some lightning up along the W coast tonight and maybe into the West. An interest to see if any big convection forms in the next few hours. One area of convection off the coast of Galway looks to be forming with increasing cold cloud top, it is moving into an area of converging winds so might form a storm. Will see.
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Upper cold pool in over Ireland tomorrow coinciding with increased diurnal heating in the afternoon, W- SW winds bringing the weather to the E ,N and NE of the country where convection might peak in the afternoon to produce a few thunderstorms. Big heavy local showers also.
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Have been keeping my eye on a large area of heavy rain that has been passing over Galway and Mayo and is now making its way into the North Midlands. No sparks from it at the moment but wonder if it'll pep up further as it makes its way across the country. Of more note is the showers breaking out now over the midlands......I'd be more interested in them, from a thunderstorm point of view.
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Complete bust today and yesterday, not a sferic detected .
Fri has potential again for convective weather, big local showers and thunderstorms might be possible. Preliminary look at the charts showing good LLS and DLS and decent lapse rates, temperatures could get into the high teens so better chances of instability in the afternoon coinciding with the upper cold pool.
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Will see if the trough and associated cool pool crossing the country tomorrow during peak diurnal heating can produce some thunderstorms, plenty of shear available and decent enough CAPE, heavy scattered showers crossing the country more so in the afternoon, dying away in the early evening.
Soundings for near Portumna Co Galway around midday, thunderstorms could occur anywhere really but if they do could peak in the East of the country in the afternoon. Poor showing lately but tomorrow showing a bit more potential perhaps.
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Just had a very heavy shower pass...note...in Crete...with nicely formed funnel cloud at back end of the shower. Lasted around 10 minutes but could not see if it touched down.
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