Convective/Thunderstorm Discussion: Summer 2022

Danno

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119347347#Comment_119347347

Hard to know precisely yet, but from this far out Monday night for homegrown storms drifting North then all eyes west/southwest as the Atlantic pushes back in Tuesday evening

fryup

so a big light show on tuesday?

Gonzo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119348340#Comment_119348340

There might be and if there is, it will be very much hit or miss type showers rather than everywhere getting rain/thunder. However most of the models at the moment are showing just a low to medium risk. We should have a better idea tomorrow morning.

pad199207

Yeah it’s really a patchy risk at the moment. Yesterday ECM had a decent chance for Leinster but even that has really reduced

Storm 10

Pad what are the chances of storms in the West on Tuesday/Wednesday we had very little so far

PukkaStukka

Latest comments on several other online weather forums are concurring with a downgrade of the storm risk here. Unfortunate, but not surprising given the fickle nature of these things. Our nextdoor neighbours look like getting the fun instead

Say my name

The very south east/wexford looks like the greatest chance of thunderstorms now.

pad199207

It’s still far too early to be even trying to pinpoint what’s going to happen. Wait till tomorrow evening

Lots or chopping and changing of how the low will engage

Dazler97

I hope we have thunderstorms here in Carrick

Meteorite58

There will be a big build up of CAPE drifting towards the NW tomorrow night, some models showing small chance of precipitation around the NW, maybe get a few sparks late night or the early hours, if they do occur maybe just off th coast but chance looks low.

Certainly a big climb down on the thunderstorm potential for Tuesday, most model guidance now showing the SE and E as the main areas of interest for Tuesday into Weds morning , soundings below for Waterford, spookwoman might get all the action again!

As Boris Johnson said ' Them's the Breaks'.

Bit to go yet will see tomorrow if any better chance.

Meteorite58

moved post

pad199207

Unexpected cells breaking out over SW England . High based no doubt. So maybe there will be more surprises over the next 48 hours

Chris_5339762

GFS not having any of it when it comes to thunder.

It's predicting almost no rain almost to the end of July, which is concerning. Soil moisture is down to 14% on my sensor, and we really need rain now, even for a good thunderstorm.

pad199207

ECM has some bits and pieces again over the SE and E for Tuesday Night. This may upgrade tomorrow

Meteorite58

ECM 18Z better again for Tuesday. Starting to show the front that bit more pronounced now. It has showers crossing the country from early, bringing Cork more into the equation now also. Looks a weak enough affair until it reaches the Eastern half of the country but could aid forcing as it comes up against the warmer air in the afternoon/ evening . One to watch is the area of convergence which could be one of the main catalyst's for storm formation ( I think so anyway ).

Good Deep Layer Shear available, pronounced area of convergence, LLS available, decent lapse rates, more humid and high Dp's and that area of LP around the S, SE coast where the triple point might brush along the coast could be an area of interest Tuesday evening also . Be it right or wrong I would have more confidence again of thunderstorms mainly for later Tuesday. Got a bit more interesting again.

pad199207

High based convection breaking out here

DOCARCH

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119352299#Comment_119352299

Looks like a few sharp showers breaking out too over the midlands/north midlands.

lolie

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119352327#Comment_119352327

Just for a text from someone in Oldcastle to say there was a fairly heavy but short shower. Sky looks fairly dark in that direction.

Cooljaybeans

Just a quick shower in wexford now , big thundery drops of rain

PukkaStukka

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119352463#Comment_119352463

Can see it from the distance here. Seems a very high cloud top but not much at lower level. Interesting this should happen now and things are not quite at their hottest or most unstable.

As an aside, Evelyn Cusack was on Morning Ireland earlier and did mention Thunderstorms are a possibility for Lenister. Hopefully that's an improvement on what appears to have been something of a downgrade over the weekend

Say my name

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119352601#Comment_119352601

Shower of rain in enniscorthy atm.

esposito

On Met.ie the forecast for tomorrow mentions “scattered outbreaks of rain and local lightning”. I’m getting a tad excited about tomorrow.

odyssey06

Are these more likely inland? Am in Dublin Bay North.

highdef

Viewing from Baldoyle, a recent heavy shower passed by to my South but it's pure virga, nothing reaching the ground.

Say my name

Looks like a band of Cumulus west of Cornwall is heading towards the south of Ireland.

Say my name

Sferics off the galway, mayo coast.

dacogawa

Two strikes out west in the last few minutes.

Storm 10

Missing the action off the West Coast all at sea

Screenshot_20220718-164235.png

Danno

Some virga and mammatus clouds building just north of me over Central-West Laois.

pad199207

Active enough off Belmullet