There is an issue with role permissions that is being worked on at the moment.
If you are having trouble with access or permissions on regional forums please post here to get access: https://www.boards.ie/discussion/2058365403/you-do-not-have-permission-for-that#latest
Convective/Thunderstorm Discussion: Summer 2022
-
01-06-2022 6:35pm#1
Shallow LP with an occluded front to cross the country tomorrow with associated upper low . CAPE readings not great, maybe a couple of hundred J/kg and very skinny but with the upper cold pool and very decent DLS and some LLS available big embedded convective showers are possible and maybe some electrified in the midlands / E / N or thereabouts, maybe a few funnels also are possible I would think. slow moving pivoting system, maybe too messy and too much dense cloud for sparks, poor temperatures under the bulk of the cloud and rain, not bad in the SE, SW where it should get into the high teens.
Friday interest also and worth keeping an eye over the weekend to see if we get any imports from the UK as a Theta'W plume just about reaches the SE late Sat night Early Sun morning or so as the same upper low migrates again over Ireland aiding instability, will see.
Post edited by DOCARCH on4
Comments
-
-
-
-
-
-
Advertisement
-
-
-
-
-
-
Advertisement
-
-
Looks likely.
Even the latest radar at 21.30 has it moved slightly more north west.
@Marine Layer looking like you'll have a night.
0 -
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Advertisement
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Great shots Leah
Some activity off the S coast this morning under the cold upper pool, will see if anything reaches the S- SE coast tonight/ early Sun morning on the edge of the Theta W plume. Living off scraps 😀
1 -
-
Advertisement
-
-
-
-
-
The GFS 6z looks fairly volatile for Ireland on Friday and lasting throughout next weekend and on the Monday. Might be worth keeping an eye on to see if these charts still verify in a few days time.
As this is so far out this will probably come to nothing as usual but we shall see.
3 -
A combination of increased Theta-W , upper trough with associated cold pool , converging winds, lift from topography, upper and lower shear could produce some lightning up along the W coast tonight and maybe into the West. An interest to see if any big convection forms in the next few hours. One area of convection off the coast of Galway looks to be forming with increasing cold cloud top, it is moving into an area of converging winds so might form a storm. Will see.
1 -
Advertisement
-
Upper cold pool in over Ireland tomorrow coinciding with increased diurnal heating in the afternoon, W- SW winds bringing the weather to the E ,N and NE of the country where convection might peak in the afternoon to produce a few thunderstorms. Big heavy local showers also.
4 -
-
Have been keeping my eye on a large area of heavy rain that has been passing over Galway and Mayo and is now making its way into the North Midlands. No sparks from it at the moment but wonder if it'll pep up further as it makes its way across the country. Of more note is the showers breaking out now over the midlands......I'd be more interested in them, from a thunderstorm point of view.
2 -
Complete bust today and yesterday, not a sferic detected .
Fri has potential again for convective weather, big local showers and thunderstorms might be possible. Preliminary look at the charts showing good LLS and DLS and decent lapse rates, temperatures could get into the high teens so better chances of instability in the afternoon coinciding with the upper cold pool.
0 -
Will see if the trough and associated cool pool crossing the country tomorrow during peak diurnal heating can produce some thunderstorms, plenty of shear available and decent enough CAPE, heavy scattered showers crossing the country more so in the afternoon, dying away in the early evening.
Soundings for near Portumna Co Galway around midday, thunderstorms could occur anywhere really but if they do could peak in the East of the country in the afternoon. Poor showing lately but tomorrow showing a bit more potential perhaps.
1 -
Advertisement
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Advertisement
![[Deleted User]](/applications/dashboard/design/images/defaulticon.png)
![xx-blitze-en-318-9-zz-2022-06-10-949-1430[1].png](https://us.v-cdn.net/6034073/uploads/XUT99A7ZHFPL/xx-blitze-en-318-9-zz-2022-06-10-949-1430-5b1-5d.png)
