Storm Eunice - Friday 18th February - Wind & Snow Potential

Kermit.de.frog · 13-02-2022 8:09pm #1

Hello friends!!! seems like a while since we've had something interesting to focus on! 🤗

This system which will begin developing and scooting this way overnight Tuesday from the southwest and go in to a period of rapid deepening as it approaches by Thursday requires enthusiastic eyeballs on it.

Could get very interesting by late Thursday evening/Thursday night/Friday - potential for heavy rain, snowfall and markedly increased winds for a time, stormy conditions potentially. I think there is no harm having a thread on this given we've been struggling for anything remotely interesting to mention really this winter so far.

Potential hazards and warning levels:

Strong Winds: ORANGE

Snow: ORANGE

Rainfall: YELLOW

GFS synoptic profile prediction Friday Afternoon, tight gradient and cold air in place both immediately ahead and behind the system:

As regards the rain risk - that's a given anything between 25 and 50mm in some places Thursday night and through most of Friday. Again dependent on track of the system. Some local flooding would seem a high enough risk.

The snow risk is certainly there but it's a question of where? Some models have the best chance in the north and west, others further south. It all depends on the track and it's too far out for meaningful forecasts for now but i'd say a snow event of whatever sort is a significant risk at the moment and that could be anywhere right now. This is the UK Met Office but there is a lot of different outcomes.

That's just one possibility, other models like I say this further south and that's vital for where see's the most snowfall. Some models like the ECM have things a bit too far north really so far.

We'll have to keep an eye on the track and the evolving projected depth of this system and see the evolution in the next couple of days.

A significant event is possibly developing here but we'll see. 🙃

igCorcaigh · 13-02-2022 8:20pm

Finally! Some possibly interesting weather. Thank you Kermit!

RobbingBandit · 13-02-2022 8:32pm

Will definitely keep a watch on this thank you sir

pauldry · 13-02-2022 8:59pm

Thank you for setting up this thread. Even if it goes pear shaped its something of interest. We've had 18mm of rain this weekend and jet definitely picking up umph.

Oscar Bravo · 13-02-2022 9:51pm

a thread started the Sunday before a storm on the Friday. boards is sinking ....fast

mcburns07 · 13-02-2022 9:54pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118626520#Comment_118626520

Hardly surprising considering how boring and non eventful this "winter" has been so far :)

daheff · 13-02-2022 9:56pm

Here's hoping for thunder snow!!!

Artane2002 · 13-02-2022 9:56pm

The UKMO went very OTT once more this evening, it's still showing snow cover approaching a foot in parts of the west. The GFS is much less enthused, showing 3-5cm across the northern half of the country away from the east coast, still a respectable fall though. The GEM shows 2-10cm across the northern third. It'd be nice to see a southward correction to bring more people in the game. Of course, snow cover charts are not to be taken at face value regardless.

Kermit.de.frog · 13-02-2022 10:10pm

Here is 12z Arpege to first thing Friday morning as that system approaches. And the colder air digging in behind as well as evaporative cooling getting snowfall to low levels under precipitation. Track is going to be key here as always.

Lot's of twists and turns to come.

And some really sharp temperature and dp gradients on some of the models as the system moves in

Artane2002 · 13-02-2022 11:14pm

The GFS 18z is somewhat going UKMO mode too, widespread heavy snow and it's forgetting that the onshore northeasterly will impact the east coast. The snow cover chart shows over 20cm for the south. If only it was correct...

Kermit.de.frog · 13-02-2022 11:22pm

On the 18z GFS the temperature profile through the layers is perfect for widespread snowfall. Onshore wind won't make any real difference in a perfect track like that. Chopping and changing to come.

Let's see the evolution tomorrow.

SouthWesterly · 13-02-2022 11:37pm

I don't like blue on maps. Can it be changed to a nice warm orange please?

I was quiet enjoying the winter. Quiet non eventful.

pauldry · 14-02-2022 12:30am

I'd be very surprised if there's any snow with this. More likely heavy rain and sleet with snow on higher ground. Winds could be concerning not just for this but the remainder of February looks wet and quite wild.

Donegal Ken · 14-02-2022 1:33am

Should a thread not be set up for Wednesday night? That system could back a punch.

M.T. Cranium · 14-02-2022 4:57am

It will probably be quite windy from early Wednesday all the way through to Friday, and the pattern we're in suggests that the more likely trend in forecast changes would be towards a milder outcome on Friday (low tracks further north in other words). That's what I am half expecting to see anyway, but that might make it more of a country-wide windstorm situation and remove the snow from the equation.

Time will tell on that. It will be quite an active week, and perhaps one or even two named storms to come.

M.T. Cranium · 14-02-2022 8:01am

At this point the 00z model runs seem to be converging on a track through central Ireland that reminds me of Darwin, although probably not quite that intense. So the outcome might be similar without the extent of damaging wind gusts.

The earlier Wednesday wind potential looks locally damaging in north Connacht and west Ulster later afternoon into evening. At this point it does not look as intense further south.

Packrat · 14-02-2022 10:58am

I happened on this thread browsing the first page of boards..

Whilst I understand that it is academic interest which drives it, I find it beyond bizzare that people are cheering for the approach of weather systems which often kill people and certainly will kill many animals, not to mention how difficult and uncomfortable it will make work for those of us who work outdoors rather than in a warm dry office tapping away on a computer.

I think it serves to show, (as militant veganism/lab meat does in relation to food) how divorced from the real world many have become, with little thought to the fraility and fragility of life.

I wonder how I would be thought of i was to post cheering for a SHTF scenario where the shoe was on the other foot and a breakdown of order and food systems lead to mass starvation of the old, infirm and less ruthless.

Not too highly I'd imagine.

Anyway, carry on.

mcburns07 · 14-02-2022 11:02am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118628067#Comment_118628067

Packrat · 14-02-2022 11:10am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118628082#Comment_118628082

Thanks for your insightful and well thought out reply.

Great to see that post quality is upheld rather than Facebook level responses.

Maybe scratch what I said about the interest being academic...

Cluedo Monopoly · 14-02-2022 11:35am

I just heard about this upcoming storm. It has been a particularly benign winter. Good to see some activity on the way. Snow would be a bonus!

sryanbruen · 14-02-2022 11:49am

Friday's low been named Storm Eunice by UK Met and Wednesday's depression Storm Dudley also.

sryanbruen · 14-02-2022 11:53am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118628082#Comment_118628082

I'll get the bingo cards loaded up as we're off to a fiery start already!

Somebody guilt tripping others for liking extreme weather, BINGO!

pad199207 · 14-02-2022 12:08pm

Status Orange - Wind warning for Donegal

Met Éireann Weather Warning

Westerly winds associated with Storm Dudley will reach mean speeds of 65 – 80km/h with damaging gusts of 100 – 130km/h, stronger on exposed coasts and on high ground.

A combination of high tide and strong winds will lead to some coastal flooding.

Warning will be updated Tuesday morning.

Valid: 21:00 Wednesday 16/02/2022 to 09:00 Thursday 17/02/2022

Issued: 11:04 Monday 14/02/2022

Status Yellow - Wind warning for Clare, Donegal, Galway, Mayo

Met Éireann Weather Warning
Westerly winds associated with Storm Dudley will reach mean speeds of 50 – 65km/h with damaging gusts of 80 – 110km/h, stronger on exposed coasts and on high ground.
A combination of high tide and strong winds will lead to some coastal flooding.
Warning will be updated Tuesday morning.
Valid: 12:00 Wednesday 16/02/2022 to 12:00 Thursday 17/02/2022
Issued: 11:04 Monday 14/02/2022

brookers · 14-02-2022 12:15pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118628067#Comment_118628067

I grew up on a mountain where the weather played havoc with our lives. My father constantly wet from pulling sheep out of drifts and trying to get strays down from the hills. The wet, cold and muck will always stay with me and everybody huddled around a fire trying to get warm on days when blizzards came, in those times it was far more frequent than now. I don't wish bad weather on anybody but my experiences have given me a life long interest in the weather, they way some people are really interested in the planets etc

Packrat · 14-02-2022 12:31pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118628420#Comment_118628420

Thank you. A sensible response. I'm that soldier but thankfully we don't all have to huddle these days.

I get the interest in extreme weather patterns.

Most of us watch footage of hurricanes out of morbid curiosity.

What we don't do is cheer when they appear or approach a populated place.

Anyway, I'd better stop replying because I'll destroy the thread on you all if it turns into a back and forth.

squarecircles · 14-02-2022 1:45pm

The latest from Met Eireann.

Headline: A very unsettled week ahead with the weather expected to cause some disruption at times so please keep up to date Met Eireann Warnings.

Storm Dudley will track to the north of Ireland on Wednesday afternoon and evening. Warnings are in operation for Ulster and parts of Connacht. After a brief respite on Thursday, Storm Eunice looks likely to track up over Ireland later on Thursday night and during Friday, bringing with it the potential for some severe winds countrywide. It also has the potential to bring falls of snow.

Wednesday will be fair at first, but with rain soon spreading from the west, clearing once again to showers later. Temperatures will be higher than usual for the time of year initially, it will turn cold with the clearing rain. Winds will increase strong to gale southwest to west with stormy conditions likely to develop in western and northern coastal counties and the risk of some coastal flooding due to wave overtopping.

The severe winds will moderate on Thursday to bring a mainly dry day, though there'll be a few scattered rain or hail showers too, with a more persistent spell of rain later in the day and overnight. There's a chance of sleet and snow on hills and mountains overnight and at times to lower levels in the north. Becoming very windy or stormy again too.

Friday will be a cold and very windy or stormy day with outbreaks of rain, sleet and hill snow. Some snow at lower levels too especially in the north and west.

squarecircles · 14-02-2022 1:58pm

TURNING VERY UNSETTLED THIS WEEK WITH TWO STORMS ON THE WAY

Two low pressure systems named by the UK Met Office will bring spells of very strong and damaging winds to Ireland and the UK later this week.

On Wednesday Storm Dudley will bring strong winds to northern and western parts of Ireland, then on Friday Storm Eunice is forecast to bring more widespread strong and damaging winds across Ireland, along with heavy rain and potentially snow.

Met Éireann has issued Yellow wind warnings for Clare, Galway, Donegal and Mayo on Wednesday, where Storm Dudley will bring wind gusts of around 80-110 km/h at times. An Orange wind warning has also been issued for Donegal, where gusts could reach around 130km/h along exposed coasts. On Friday a more widespread spell of windy and disruptive weather is expected as Storm Eunice moves across Ireland, with weather warnings expected to be issued in the coming days. Weather warning are also in place for Northern Ireland from Wednesday to Friday, issued by the Met Office.

Met Éireann meteorologist, Emer Flood said: “It’s been a fairly quiet year so far but that’s all going to change this week as an active jet stream steers several low-pressure systems across Ireland and the UK.

“On Wednesday Storm Dudley will bring strong winds to mainly northern and western areas, these strong winds in combination with high tides will lead to large coastal waves and some coastal flooding.”

Emer continued: “As Storm Dudley clears eastwards on Thursday morning winds will ease for a time, before picking up again on Friday morning as Storm Eunice approaches. We’re keeping a close eye on this Storm as there is the potential for more widespread strong winds across Ireland which may lead to some disruption and damage. Along with strong winds, Eunice is expected to bring spells of heavy rain and potentially some snow. We’re advising the public to keep a close eye on the weather forecast as the week progresses as further weather warnings are likely to be issued.”

For the most accurate and up to date forecast for your area on the Island of Ireland go to met.ie. The latest weather advisories and warnings for Ireland are on the Met Éireann Warnings page. These services and more are available on our free app – available from the App store for iPhone, and Play store for Android.

Kermit.de.frog · 14-02-2022 2:25pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118628067#Comment_118628067

On the weather forum, in terms of likely reaction, this post is the equivalent of screaming 'Jihad!' at an airport. 🙂

pauldry · 14-02-2022 2:37pm

Here's one for the BiNGO card. Why on earth is Sligo not included in a gale warning with Northwesterlys likely?

Tyrone212 · 14-02-2022 3:24pm

Amber wind warning for Derry and Antrim on Wednesday. Chief forecaster assessment states 70 to 80mph inland. 80 to 90mph coastal/exposed areas. 90mph is around 145kmh so perhaps a red warning for Donegal.

Fridays blanket yellow wind warning includes a mention of possible blizzard conditions.

Sadly I will miss it all as I'm away for the week. Hope you all see some snow.

compsys · 14-02-2022 3:52pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118628067#Comment_118628067

Well firstly, you are of course free to leave this forum.

Secondly, the number of deaths from weather-related events in Ireland each year, however extreme, is miniscule.

Thirdly, it's the weather - no one here has any control over it. It'll happen regardless.

And finally, if you're that concerned about loss of human life, perhaps direct your attention/efforts towards drink, drugs, crime, and road traffic accidents instead, which actually kill tens of thousands in Ireland each year.

Donegal Ken · 14-02-2022 4:04pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118629098#Comment_118629098

More than likely Sligo and Leitrim will be added to the warnings tomorrow morning when there warnings will be updated. Possible Orange warnings for there too. If the ICON and Arpege verify close to a Red warning for the northwest

Danno · 14-02-2022 4:23pm

It seems we have to look west, very far west for snow this winter. Canadian snow - hmmm.

Kermit.de.frog · 14-02-2022 4:49pm

The ICON model, first out today, continues to put the track further south and thus bringing some significant snowfall for the southern half of the country overnight Thursday and clears it off smartly Friday morning.

The strongest of the winds remaining off the south coast under this scenario

Kermit.de.frog · 14-02-2022 5:07pm

GFS track further north ergo wind because the main concern. Snow mainly for Connaught and most of Ulster. Isobars getting really tightly packed, Thursday night and into Friday. Some damaging gusts.

YanSno · 14-02-2022 5:08pm

ICON sticking with the track south of Ireland. Probability of that happening is 2/3

Packrat · 14-02-2022 5:27pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118629805#Comment_118629805

Thank you. I'll also feel free to stay if that's ok with you? Or even if it's not.

Lol at the triggered ones going all defensive..

Kermit.de.frog · 14-02-2022 5:31pm

Back on the GFS. The control takes a more southern track bringing snow for most Thursday night and in to Friday.

Dazler97 · 14-02-2022 5:42pm

Wow didn't know this thread was here, so glad someone opened this up, Friday looks bad enough not sure for snow but the wind and rain will be something else

cheezums · 14-02-2022 5:42pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118630393#Comment_118630393

Dude you literally got triggered by people discussing weather.

pad199207 · 14-02-2022 5:50pm

Status Yellow - Wind warning for Ireland

Met Éireann Weather Warning

Westerly winds associated with Storm Dudley will reach mean speeds of 50 – 65km/h with damaging gusts of 80 – 110km/h, stronger on exposed coasts and on high ground.

A combination of high tide and strong winds will lead to flooding on exposed coasts.

Valid: 12:00 Wednesday 16/02/2022 to 12:00 Thursday 17/02/2022

Issued: 16:34 Monday 14/02/2022

Dazler97 · 14-02-2022 5:53pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118630540#Comment_118630540

You beat me too it was gonna say that

Elmer Blooker · 14-02-2022 6:11pm

I would agree with packrat to a certain extent, I don’t like the look of this and yes I know it’s been the most boring winter we’ve ever experienced!

You cant even get a plumber or electrician to turn up these days , what chance would you have getting your roof tiles replaced!

🤞it’s downgraded

Danno · 14-02-2022 6:24pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118630664#Comment_118630664

Downgrade the wind, upgrade the snow.

Wind events are overblown anyways... 😜

Rebelbrowser · 14-02-2022 6:27pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118630664#Comment_118630664

I think its the possibility of snow most of us are egging on. I know there are some who love storms too but I'm too much of a scaredy cat. Darwin was petrifying down here and Ophelia not much better. Give me a harmless 6cm of snow and I'll be a happy boy.

JanuarySnowstor · 14-02-2022 7:24pm

I don't ever remember a system moving up from the Southwest like this one providing snow! For me it's a complete non runner and the uppers will be tweaked back as we get closer.

Where's the cold coming from?

Re the winds there is a risk of something significant, perhaps a 20% chance. Could go either way but the trend is that the low will cross the centre of Ireland

esposito · 14-02-2022 7:32pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118631070#Comment_118631070

Yep no way we will get low lying snow. It will track over or just to the north of us which is no good. Perhaps some snow on mountains in the northwest but that’s useless for most of us. Just the usual strong winds and heavy rain causing misery for most of us.

Danno · 14-02-2022 7:35pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118631070#Comment_118631070

Yes, I'm in somewhat agreement here. I cannot see the uppers as currently progged delivering much in the way of snow away from the upland areas of the northwest and perhaps at lower levels across Fermanagh/Cavan areas. Sorry for the negative thinking on this, normally I'm on the optimistic side of snow forecasts, but this at the moment looks like a cold rain event for most. I can understand the build up on here though, it has been a horrendous winter for snow-watching. Even the storm-watching had been poor too.

Rebelbrowser · 14-02-2022 7:43pm

Tend to agree with Danno and JS. Assume it is how quickly the cold air is reaching us (less modification) and the heavy convection that has the potential to overcome some of our usual snow issues but I have me doubts.... Still worth watching closely

JanuarySnowstor · 14-02-2022 7:44pm

The jma doesn't develop any system at all which is a bit odd. Hard to judge ecm as its between time-frames.

I wouldn't be saying much about Friday yet if I was Met Eireann lots of variables from a severe wind spell to zilch!

My punt right now is a yellow type event with orange for coasts

Artane2002 · 14-02-2022 8:19pm

The ECM chart looks quite severe to me in terms of wind although the worst may just miss us to our south. For those asking about where the cold for the potential snow comes from, it is from cold air being wrapped around the storm's circulation. Lots of cold air is spilling into the Atlantic from Canada. If you search for the uppers chart, you'll see that they could get as low as -4 to -6C for the Azores. That risk seems to have been downgraded today away from high ground apart from maybe the northwest. Still time for northwards corrections bringing more severe winds onshore or southwards corrections allowing for more in the way of wintry precipitation.

Storm Eunice - Friday 18th February - Wind & Snow Potential

Potential hazards and warning levels:

Comments

Status Orange - Wind warning for Donegal

Status Yellow - Wind warning for Clare, Donegal, Galway, Mayo

Status Yellow - Wind warning for Ireland