Storm Eunice - Friday 18th February - Wind & Snow Potential

Larbre34

Did we see recorded 16C earlier? Highs currently 12 and 13C nationally.

almostthere12

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118641267#Comment_118641267

Ah no coastal Dublin totally misses out......say it ain't so!!!

Actually so does the part of Cork I am moving to next year, might have to rethink where to move to!!

Tyrone212

Widespread snow and wind warning across the North for Friday. 5cm for low levels, 10 to 20cm higher up and possibly 30cm above 250m. Blizzards and drifting mentioned. Covering all bases at this early stage, if track is favourable warning will be upgraded to Amber possibly even red IMO. Time will tell.

SouthWesterly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118641152#Comment_118641152

You seem to have a tick problem. I suggest you see your doctor for Lyme disease 😁

Donegal Ken

Word on the street is that Met Eireann are on about Orange snow and wind warnings for Friday morning.

Billcarson

If many schools were closed for storm barra back in early Dec,wonder will they close on Friday in the most affected parts for Eunice?

Kermit.de.frog

ICON slightly further north but persistent with the more southerly track which brings more of the country in to the frontal snow zone

If you want snow this is the exact track you'd want.

SouthWesterly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118641327#Comment_118641327

I was in the uk when they had the big storm in the late 80s. I'm just glad I'm not there now

Supercell

Should be pretty wild up in Roundwood in Wickow on Friday, hope some of our posters from that area are ready with snaps and reports!

Donegal Ken

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118641557#Comment_118641557

The main reason that time as far as I am aware was due to school needed to leave there windows open

igCorcaigh

https://twitter.com/metoffice/status/1493958623030132737

igCorcaigh

https://twitter.com/SimonLeeWx/status/1493962146102878212

Slimity

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118641575#Comment_118641575

They still do...

Supercell

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118641578#Comment_118641578

Had never heard of a Shapiro-Keyser cyclone before, found the article below which describes it nicely. Learn something new everyday!

http://www.eumetrain.org/satmanu/shapiro_keyser_cm/index.html

Tazio

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118640636#Comment_118640636

Yes just saw that there a few mins ago - we're in for some blast on the W/SW of the island. Looks rough according to Met Office

https://youtu.be/keAN6qVxwVA?t=182

Meteorite58

ICON corrected now more in line with the main suite of models.

Gone from the weakest to the strongest!

A bit of tweaking to do yet.

sicknotexi

Latest Icon corrects towards other models.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118641354#Comment_118641354

16.7c at pilltown AWC,a met eireann site based I think at the teagasc farm there a few kilometers inland of the south exit roundabout of the waterford bypass

Pangea

Impressive sustained winds here in the NW , i couldn't get my car door opened with the wind at one stage had to park somewhere else.

Kermit.de.frog

GFS taking things up a notch in terms of wind, rain and snow potential.

Starting to look a prospect whatever you are in to

M.T. Cranium

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118641042#Comment_118641042

Not much on that one model I was describing.

More generally it would be a coup for the BBC if their track proved exactly right but it's basically model consensus for a storm that as of right now is hardly even a ripple of low pressure, being worked over by those very strong upper level winds I mentioned. Realistically, a lot of different options are on the table and I would not wish to commit to anything too definite, it's not just track that is uncertain, but intensity has ranged considerably on different models, not all of the outcomes are major storms (for anybody). It likely will be, for some regions, but this isn't like Ophelia where we were dealing with something already in existence at 48 hours (and many days before that) with only a relatively narrow range of outcomes that might occur. We're dealing with a much bigger set of unknowns here. I don't feel bad about saying that we can't really predict today what will happen with Eunice, you can see that Met E have taken that approach too with their "watch this space" yellow preliminary alert. You know that's going to evolve into something more specific, but nobody really knows what.

pad199207

Status Orange - Wind warning for Clare, Cork, Kerry, Limerick, Waterford, Galway, Wexford

Met Éireann Weather Warning

Storm Eunice will bring severe and potentially damaging winds, gusting up to 130km/h, higher in exposed areas. Some disruption is expected along with a possibility of coastal flooding.

Valid: 05:00 Friday 18/02/2022 to 11:00 Friday 18/02/2022

Issued: 16:36 Wednesday 16/02/2022

Kiith

Is this looking stronger then storm Barra last year?

That was intense in Waterville (SW Kerry). I'll be out of town for a few days and slightly worried about wind/power loss etc...with my wife/baby.

squarecircles

Status Orange - Wind warning for Clare, Cork, Kerry, Limerick, Waterford, Galway, Wexford

Met Éireann Weather Warning

Storm Eunice will bring severe and potentially damaging winds, gusting up to 130km/h, higher in exposed areas. Some disruption is expected along with a possibility of coastal flooding.

Valid: 05:00 Friday 18/02/2022 to 11:00 Friday 18/02/2022

Issued: 16:36 Wednesday 16/02/2022

Cork2021

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118642097#Comment_118642097

and here we go!!!

Storm 10

Had a vicious shower in Galway and my weather station was recording gusts of 65mph

Kermit.de.frog

The latest UKMO run nudges the track a bit further south so brings more counties in to the frontal snow band - Ulster, Connaught, Midlands and down towards the southwest.

Still to be nailed even this far out.

The issue is that a relatively small change in the track and depth of the system synoptically has a comparatively large impact at the more macro local level. It's the difference between storm and gales and rain or snow.

Very tight margins. That keeps us guessing.

M.T. Cranium

A tendency to edge north on both the GFS and GEM (it has not updated on some sites but I just saw the home base version). Think it would be closer to orange than red for wind warnings on south coast, not quite the worst case scenario on these two anyway.

Snow is largely confined to Connacht and Ulster, higher ground in southeast. Keep in mind that a strong storm coming in from the southwest within 36 hours of record warmth is not the way most snowstorms evolve and it should not come as a shocker if there are last minute changes to a more northward track and a more robust warm sector for Eunice. There could still be cold winds and mixed precip after the low passes in that scenario though.

adocholiday

I know it's early days but given the models are aligning with the more northern track what are the likely wind impacts here? Red warning for SW, Orange for rest of Munster/SE Leinster, Yellow for everywhere else? Some of those UK forecasts are showing 160kph winds for the SE.

Kermit.de.frog

Arpege similar to the UKMO and ICON with the track further south and thus more of the country in the snow zone. That's 3 more favorable for wider spread snow.

Bit of a split between the Euro and North American models on that track which makes a huge difference to the outcome.

Eagerly awaiting the ECM this evening.

Dazler97

Had the heaviest hail shower a few minutes ago, some lightning with it but couldn't hear thunder

Kermit.de.frog

The highest res models now coming in to view and Arome is the 4th to maintain a bit more southerly track similar to ICON, Arpege and the UKMO

There is little doubt despite the GFS that the risk of widespread snowfall is increasing overall on this afternoons output. Let's see what happens overnight.

Larbre34

As usual it's excessive ramping from Kermit.

None of the recent runs suggest anything but mixed precipitation at major population and road network elevations. We're talking about sleet and hail and embedded squalls, all of which will be disruptive enough in gale force winds and not advisable to drive or operate machinery in, but any heavy snowfall will be confined to 300m, maybe 250m in the right circumstances and all short lived, in any event. Glenshane Pass, Sally Gap type stuff.

This will be a notable event, but for high wind impacts over a relatively short window, not for snowfall, don't be fooled otherwise.

TheMilkyPirate

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118642430#Comment_118642430

It's a bit excessive I agree but it's all part of the fun. You have no idea if your prediction will come to pass just as you have no idea if Kermit's will, nobody can be certain of anything.

YanSno

I would love to know on what model you based this forecast @Larbre34 , this is a very complex situation the low hasn't even formed yet.

Danno

Very blustery evening across southern Laois, wind speeds of 25mph (40kmh) and gusting much harder... top gust 51mph (82kmh).

Kermit.de.frog

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118642481#Comment_118642481

The Mystic Meg model

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118642474#Comment_118642474

There is absolutely nothing excessive at all about any of my posts. It's reflective of my interpretation of the model output. Other's are can give their own interpretations, and they do.

Larbre34

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118642481#Comment_118642481

If you don't understand how a low that hasn't formed yet, is being described by every weather scientist in Western Europe, then I can't teach you about modern meteorology in one post.

So two words, charts and experience.

Gonzo

I'm sick of the wind already and we haven't even got to Friday yet. The following week could also be fairly disturbed. Hoping for a much quieter March.

Mech1

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118642430#Comment_118642430

I don't know much about this forecasting lark, but does anyone else wanna pin their colours to the mast?

That's pretty deffo from Larbre.

Dazler97

Half of the UK in an Amber warning winds of possible 100mph

YanSno

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118642509#Comment_118642509

No thank you I've enough experience, thanks for the offer anyhow

cheezums

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118642514#Comment_118642514

Snowpocalypse. Chalk it.

Cork2021

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118642525#Comment_118642525

How come the uk warnings differ so much to ours? 100mph we’d be told go into the basement and don’t come out here…

JanuarySnowstor

Met Eireann asleep at the wheel on this! Evelyn must be on a week off!!

Rebelbrowser

In fairness to Met E, tomorrow morning is probably fine to get proper warnings out. Right now, like the rest of us, they don't have enough clarity to give precise warnings.

Rebelbrowser

Just looking at the ECM, at one frame it's a few hundred miles west of Ireland, in the next frame (24 hours later) its in Scandinavia. This will be a very shortlived affair however potent

JanuarySnowstor

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118642591#Comment_118642591

Yes good point very quick to move through

esposito

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118642552#Comment_118642552

I disagree. Still a lot of uncertainty. They have put out orange wind warnings so I don’t know what you’re on about.

nacho libre

I have a feeling given its rapid development that this system will track further north in the end, so any settling may be confined to higher levels, with a mess of sleet and wet snow at lower levels. The likes of Knock Airport could be fun on Friday Morning. I think Friday Afternoon into the evening is when we might have a better chance of seeing the white stuff at lower levels.