Storm Eunice - Friday 18th February - Wind & Snow Potential
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The ICON model, first out today, continues to put the track further south and thus bringing some significant snowfall for the southern half of the country overnight Thursday and clears it off smartly Friday morning.
The strongest of the winds remaining off the south coast under this scenario
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I would agree with packrat to a certain extent, I don’t like the look of this and yes I know it’s been the most boring winter we’ve ever experienced!
You cant even get a plumber or electrician to turn up these days , what chance would you have getting your roof tiles replaced!
🤞it’s downgraded
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The ECM chart looks quite severe to me in terms of wind although the worst may just miss us to our south. For those asking about where the cold for the potential snow comes from, it is from cold air being wrapped around the storm's circulation. Lots of cold air is spilling into the Atlantic from Canada. If you search for the uppers chart, you'll see that they could get as low as -4 to -6C for the Azores. That risk seems to have been downgraded today away from high ground apart from maybe the northwest. Still time for northwards corrections bringing more severe winds onshore or southwards corrections allowing for more in the way of wintry precipitation.
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ECM, UKMO, ARPEGE, GEM and GFS all showing a severe storm, GFS's track taking the worst of the winds just off or along the S coast. ICON has the storm much lower keeping the strong winds off the coast but this has been at odds with the other models for a number of runs. UKMO is the strongest followed by ECM and ARPEGE. Current charts, I stress current as all this can change, are showing high end Orange and Red warning wind potential , for now showing the Southern half of the country getting the strongest winds and probably coastal counties the strongest but the whole country could experience strong winds at some stage. In a way it is not a huge storm in size but very tight compact isobars will probably give some areas very severe winds. A long way to go and might end up with a very different track yet which would have huge bearings on wind strength and where might get snow.
ECM showing pressure readings of 1000hPa at 16.00 on Thurs and 968 hPa 09.00 on Fri, a drop of 32 hPa in 17hrs.
Fast moving rapidly deepening storm being powered up by the Jet with a steep thermal gradient.
EDIT: changed 100hpa to 100ohpa
Post edited by Meteorite58 on5 -
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On Fri the 528dam line will be below Ireland. I reckon there is a fair possibility of a dumping of snow in the W, NW and N at least or more like the top third of the country once the storm doesn't stray too far North. The storm should pull in plenty cold air from the NW and with the low pressure bringing the cold closer to sea level. Looks like plenty of wintry showers to follow on Friday across the country and temperatures keeping well down and perhaps a second front producing snow early Saturday.
On a side note with a temperature gradient like that I wonder are we in for a sting jet.
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