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Storm Eunice - Friday 18th February - Wind & Snow Potential
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So that's the gfs take this evening!
A significant nudge North again with the snow risk also moving North. This is hurricane force just off the south coast. It only needs a fraction of a change to bring the South Coast into red territory for wind. As ever more rubs needed but for now the downgrades have stopped and things are slowly swinging back to severe!
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Just back to the models for a moment, ICON 18z is really an outlier at this stage with how far south it wants to take this system never mind the depth of the system.
The track is everything here. That's what has to be nailed in the next 24 hours. Relatively minor changes synoptically in the track has big implications for who gets what at more macro levels. This is a complex and fast moving event. Really anywhere in the country should be expecting disruption Friday morning. Not to say it will happen everywhere but it's always better to be wary.
I agree somewhat with @M.T. Cranium but the view on the extent and elevational aspect of snowfall I don't agree with although he acknowledges it's the median, as he observes, he is working off. I think it will be more widespread than that although depending on the track timing comes in to it too. It could be it starts as snow in East Leinster for example, back to rain for a couple of hours, then snow again as it clears. Or it could be snow there throughout.
For the northwest, north midlands, most of Ulster and Connaught at low levels i'd be currently eyeing 10 - 20cm and possibly locally more and that's a decent enough amount. This extends in to Munster as well due to the tight wrap around of the occlusion.
There is so much variability involved it's impossible to be nuanced even at this point really. You can only go on the evidence in the round and intuition.
But we'll see. 😀 Hopefully tomorrow evening we'll have a much more coherent view of the track here across the models.
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Aside from the fact that is total nonsense there are other threads, you don't have to use this one 🙄 Everyone's contrarian view and debate is welcome. I don't see anyone being more "realistic" than anyone else. I'm comfortable with my own track record FWIW and these threads, and everyone's threads, tend to be informative and fun for the most part
Anyway, following today's model runs I remain on the bullish side. Hopefully by tomorrow evening we should have a much clearer picture.
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ECM 18z is a slight upgrade on the 12z. The system a smidgen bit further south. The center remaining off the south coast which would be perfect. You can see how the temperature gradient is getting squeezed and, with time, gradually lower on the northern flank as the front slides eastward.
I'd be content with that if it was still there tomorrow evening.
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And last but not least the GEM
So where are we this morning. The storm has nudged further North and so has the snow risk. A larger mild sector now showing at least temporarily! The wind is my main concern especially for my location. Methinks a red for Clare, Kerry and Cork
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The ECM and Arpege look to be on similar tracks now, through the inland south. That would tend to maximize the snow potential in central and northern counties, and keep extreme winds somewhat off the south coast (the strongest gradient depicted is a little too far south, although the winds coming in from the northwest into the Atlantic coast would be considerable).
As JS has summarized, some models are a bit further north and the ICON is well south.
Part of the problem for the models is that this storm has not really formed yet, it is supposed to develop very rapidly tonight along the frontal boundary laid down by departing Dudley, in a zone to the north of the Azores, and then whatever forms will run up along the frontal boundary wherever it stalls on Thursday night. Different models are estimating different locations for all that.
I have included a satellite image here which may update for later viewers, check the time stamp on it, but at present you'll see that in the central Atlantic there is not much development around 40N along this long trailing front; that is where Eunice is going to pop out into the world later.
Look for the enhanced cloud (jet streak) near 40N 40W and this is the general area of storm formation. They have a dedicated dropsonde indicated on upper air charts, there is an extremely strong low level jet in that area, 130 knots at 500 mb and 100 knots at 700 mb. These are very high values for those levels. At 250 mb it is a somewhat less unusual 200 knots. Those winds are howling away over top of a strong "thermocline" where the cold Labrador current has made a dent in the Gulf stream (SST values range from 2 C to 17 C over a rather short distance). But there is no organized low pressure system there yet, nor will there be much even by mid-day ...
The RGEM model which has a finer grid than the GGEM shows slow development to 12z Thursday (it is now 06z Wed) with a 997 mb low forming by that time at 47N 25W. By 36 hours this is predicted to be close to 50N 17W at 969 mbs and undergoing capture by a developing upper low.
Would say that there is so much development potential here that tracks cannot be entirely trusted yet, and certainly with those upper level wind parameters there is a risk of a damaging wind event in the south and/or southeast depending on track.
I don't think we're going to know the answer to the track mystery until well into Thursday at the rate this comes together.
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