Brexit discussion thread XIV (Please read OP before posting)

The speech Patrick Kielty made on the subject recently was very interesting. He says we will never have a 'united' Ireland in the true sense of the word as British unionism and Irish nationalism are poles apart in terms of identity and culture. But we could definitely end up with some sort of 32 county solution where both are able to co-exist peacefully and amicably.

There will never be a united NI. The two main unionist parties can't even come out and say whether they would accept a SF First Minister. Supposedly moderate Doug Beattie can't even stomach an Irish language act. Ask them what they think of Irish people showing reluctance to change their anthem and flag in a shared all-island state and they will point to this as evidence that we don't really want a shared island; yet ask them why a shared NI doesn't likewise need a new flag and anthem and they say it's not required. The reality is they don't want a shared NI. They want the NI of the 1950s when they ran the show. Donaldson recently was cheering Kate Hoey's remarks bemoaning why there are so many nationalists in educated fields.

We are a long way away from a UI when talking about a border poll.

I think though that we will enter a period of all Ireland co-operation on steroids with a SF first minister. That assembly will be very unstable and constantly under threat of suspension.

There needs to be a bit of maturity though. Are there any other parliaments where the parties are constantly threatening to pull out?

I suspect not many. A lot of the people in the Republic are in favour of a United Ireland in theory but as soon as you start getting into the detail and potential compromises they throw their hands at it. In order to be a stable country any United Ireland would need to have a new flag, anthem and the Republic would need to step in and pay the subvention costs that are currently being shouldered by London (£15m last year).

All of that would be hammered home in any Referendum campaign by the No side and I couldn't see it passing (although I would still vote for it myself).

This is my takeaway from any UI discussion.

Incorporating NI isn't like adding an extension onto your house. It's a new house.

Even in the event of a Yes vote, RoI and NI would need to make serious concessions to appease those on both sides. IMO that means a new parliament and election process, likely a new constitution, anthem, President, and Presidential election process. Maybe a new capital city?

There will be a definitely be a group that won't care about the subsidies because they probably already revelling in the miserable life they have. You meet these people in Britain and ROI too, the types who are proud that they have a complete hatred of broadening their horizons whatsoever. I'm talking the kind of people who don't get off the couch unless it's to batter children on the way to school.

In terms of Brexit I met many leave voters who didn't give a toss about the strength of sterling vs Euro or it's affect on the stock markets because they thought it wouldn't affect the sheltered 1 pub, 1 bookies, 1 supermarket lives. Some didn't even care about blue passports because they had no intention of ever travelling.

Would the size disparity end up causing trouble down the road? It might still end up in an "us and them" situation, which isn't much better than it is now. Politically, would the two parts of New-Ireland be weighted to stop NI from being sidelined? Electoral boundaries would be a nightmare no matter what system was figured out for a UI. Glad it's never going to be my job.

I would like to see a UI in 2024 just so that Star Trek The Next Generation was correct in 1990!

Causing awful problems in the hopes of a future UI off in the distance is the kind of thinking that lead to Brexit. We should do what's best for now and not some imaginary future

The Hong Kong passports will be British National Overseas ones + a UK visa, which would not give rights to live in Ireland.

Ireland has plenty of people with visas that don't allow them in to the UK and vice versa already

You can plan for a UI without shafting everyone along the border for what could be years. Hard border on not we will be lucky to see a UI before I die so I think we should continue to ensure an open border rather than gamble it on what ifs

Right I thought by "in our best interest" you meant Ireland should sneakily work towards a hard border.

But how would they know the difference between an EU citizen and an Irish citizen? EU citizens come from the entire EU27, not just eastern Europe. It would inevitably mean doing spot and ad hoc checks on many Irish citizens crossing the border, not just EU passport holders.

That's what I'm thinking. It would be next to impossible to guess who might be an Irish citizen or EU citizen crossing the border and would mean having to stop and question numerous Irish citizens in order to try and find the EU ones.

It would also men having to stop a lot of UK citizens crossing the border (even if we are all just Paddies to the Tories)

What would become of Watterweys Airlann and similar cross border operations if every person using them had to be stopping and checked

Can they not just do that in the UK already ?