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Brexit discussion thread XIV (Please read OP before posting)

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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 5,817 ✭✭✭ RobAMerc


    yes, but when they start imposing rules and tarrifs on other countries ( including EU ), wont we effectively be in the same position as NI, in that we have access to GB and EU ?



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,271 ✭✭✭ Gerry T


    I sort of get that, but goods from NI can travel unimpeded from NI direct to GB so that doesn't upset the DUP. The UK has to implement those checks at all ports from the rest of the EU, and I presume that includes NI ports and Airports where NI is importing from the EU (excl IRL). So why exclude IRL from the import checks. Is it only because of NI unique position, imports from ILR to NI would be unchecked so singling out NI from the rest of the UK with added advantages. If so it seems the torys want to pull down a part of the UK that has the prospect to flourish.



  • Registered Users Posts: 12,503 ✭✭✭✭ breezy1985


    Sorry I meant nothing negative as in people don't need to worry about our trade to France or anything like that.

    I just see this as the UK secretly agreeing to the oven ready treaty they wrote and signed in the first place



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 29,020 CMod ✭✭✭✭ ancapailldorcha


    Why would they do this when they're not even inspecting goods coming into the country from the EU at present?



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,271 ✭✭✭ Gerry T


    My understanding is from January they start to phase in import checks from all EU countries bar IRL.



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  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 29,020 CMod ✭✭✭✭ ancapailldorcha


    I don't really know. I don't see what difference it makes to the EU if they check incoming goods or not in relation to mainland Britain. NI is of course a different matter.



  • Registered Users Posts: 12,503 ✭✭✭✭ breezy1985


    What would be the point. If you leave 1 door open the whole system is useless.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Arts Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 17,533 CMod ✭✭✭✭ Nody


    Your mistake is assuming the point is to actually control things rather than pretend they are in control in the same way as their new chemical regulation etc. (relies on companies reporting things in on their own).



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,271 ✭✭✭ Gerry T


    Maybe that's the point, they must know they're wholly unprepared and leaving a back door might suit them as it might provide a means for trade to continue. It just feels like everything is closing in on them, the tide has turned, which is a good thing. Not that I wish harm on the UK but a dose of reality is long overdue.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,902 ✭✭✭ correct horse battery staple


    Spot on this is a headline driven government

    notice the trumpeting of Australia deal today but when you dig in the loses from Brexit do not come close to potential gains from this

    but it doesn’t matter, controlling the narrative is the main goals, businesses won’t speak up and just quietly fold



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  • Registered Users Posts: 12,503 ✭✭✭✭ breezy1985


    Oh no I fully understand it's a sham. It's all just a crafty way of climbing down from the brinkmanship of a month ago



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,877 ✭✭✭ fly_agaric


    I think it is hard to be certain of the reasons behind policies with this UK govt. I'm very suspicious of the motive of everything they do as regards their relations with Ireland or more particularly the EU. However (somewhat thankfully, given the first point) they are also not very competent, and (as others said) they can be very led by the polls & opinions of their supporters in decisions they make, so will sometimes turn on a dime.

    An example would be the complete about face for now as regards starting more trouble with the EU over the NI protocol. The leaders and the party seem to badly want it to happen but basically fear of the consequences (edit: I mean political result for them at home, not effects on relationships with the EU, Ireland or the US) is staying their hand.

    It's just impossible to really know what they are at half the time.

    Post edited by fly_agaric on


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,644 ✭✭✭✭ BlitzKrieg


    trumpeting the deal? I get the impression Boris told his team to sign whatever the australians offered so he could plug the constant wave of bad news he's been getting.


    Judging how the australian agriculture reps responded compared to the british I dont think it'll stay good news for long



  • Posts: 533 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    The Trump point could be come extremely negative if there’s ever any connection found between the U.K. and Trump’s election.

    There was already Cambridge Analytica and there’s a lot of crossover between various characters and organisations on the fringes of politics.

    Hell hath no fury like an American public waking up with a hangover… and I think we are only seeing the very early stages of the Trump unravelling. That’s going to get extremely messy as 2022 and 2023 roll on. 🍿



  • Registered Users Posts: 17,652 ✭✭✭✭ Ads by Google


    I don't know why they'd really think they could sign a deal with the US under Trump. A trade deal couldn't be an executive order, and Trump's Northern Ireland envoy issued a warning about the border. If that was the plan all along, they wouldn't have extended Brexit until the end of Trump's term when he couldn't do it.

    It's possible they thought something rosy was going to happen, I suppose in the same way they thought Brexit would be a doddle, but it wasn't going to happen. Trump was so America First, and his supporters the same, a trade deal with the UK wouldn't be worth the fight to get it through the Ways and Means committee. And even then, services have to be done effectively state by state. It's nothing like being in the EU.

    I'll never understand how people can consume so much news and media from the US and not understand that both sides of the house have strong ties with Ireland. It's like people have become to overwhelmed with information they resort to Democrats good EU good Republicans bad Brexit bad.



  • Registered Users Posts: 12,503 ✭✭✭✭ breezy1985


    Trump's trade partners usually got exactly what they wanted from him, he was a very weak negotiator.

    Even allowing for that there is no trade deal from any country or all that is gonna make up for the loss through Brexit



  • Registered Users Posts: 12,413 ✭✭✭✭ Strazdas


    Yes, I think their lack of a written constitution and their disastrous FPTP system leaves them extremely vulnerable. Virtually everyone in the Brexit wing of the Tory Party and those who write for and control the right wing press is a wrong 'un and not to be trusted. British democracy could remain secure only as long as fairly decent and respectable people remained at the helm.....this shower are dragging it down to never seen before depths.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 3,756 ✭✭✭ McGiver


    Exactly, I see the FPTP as the primary reason. If they had some sort of a PR the lack of a codified constitution is not such a big deal. However, the FPTP and absence of a proper constitution is an explosive combo which needed only only time to end up as it did. It was not a matter of if but when it would happen. Gutter press, social media amplification, Cambridge Analytica, Russian disinformation war all greatly contributed but FPTP was key. Without FPTP Brexit and Johnsonism would have been much harder yo achieve and likely not even possible.

    Post edited by McGiver on


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,413 ✭✭✭✭ Strazdas


    Interesting to see if this is over Brexit / the Protocol or if he has had a falling out with Johnson on some other issue. Reports say he is unhappy with the 'political direction' the UK Govt is taking.

    Probably good news from the point of view of the Protocol. Most observers felt Frost was a terrible negotiator, anti-EU / Europe and a not particularly pleasant person to have to deal with.

    Edit : it's not the Protocol that's bugging him, rather all the other stuff like Covid, net zero and tax rises.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,756 ✭✭✭ McGiver


    Interesting development...

    What happens now?

    Šefčovič must be exhaling in jubilation, he can get a break, at least for a while. Can someone worse than Frost replace Frost? 😎



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,186 ✭✭✭ Jizique


    He made a speech a couple of weeks ago decrying the high tax direction of the govt and extolling regulatory independence; he is very popular with the party members due to his aggressive approach and I would not be surprised to see him look for the next safe seat (he would have fancied this week's one); I suspect he has his sights set on the top job



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,619 ✭✭✭ GM228




  • Registered Users Posts: 17,652 ✭✭✭✭ Ads by Google


    That's surprising but only because I hadn't seen the possibility really talked about.

    Makes sense I suppose. Other reasons will be given but a lot of it would be Brexit and his discomfort at how it played out.



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