FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2021/2022 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

GEM 12z hints at an easterly towards the end of it's run. Unfortunately on this run Ireland is just too far west to tap into the real cold and snow. Wouldn't take much of an adjustment to bring us into a cold unstable easterly.

CFS 06z is back to zonal dominance. Each run chops and changes like crazy from as soon as 120 hours out.

ECM 12z delivers a battering on Tuesday.

Almost a week into Winter now how are things looking in the run up to Christmas? Right now the models are in a great state of uncertainty as the wind/storm event on Tuesday is causing alot of problems in terms of where do we go next. At the moment it looks like we have a relatively cool and unsettled week to come with regular bouts of wind, rain and showers. Temperatures at night may get low enough for some patchy frost during the week if skies clear and winds die off.

We may get another very windy spell around next weekend or early into the following week. Everything after this Tuesday is rather uncertain so difficult to pinpoint when the next storm will happen.

The GFS is looking at a big lift up in temperatures for next week starting from about the 13th of December as an area of high pressure moves up from the south or south-west. If this happens we should turn alot drier and far more settled. On paper we should turn alot milder too, however if this high pressure sits right over us and skies clear, it could become very cool to cold with frost and fog keeping temperatures at ground level much lower than the upper air temperatures suggest. If the high pressure ends up producing lots of cloud and spots of drizzle then temperatures on the surface may be average or higher than average.

On the GFS 12z the high never really sits over us and the high instead ridges towards Scandinavia, drawing up very mild south-westerlies over Ireland in the run up to Christmas.

We finish up on 21 December still fairly dry but there are signs that the Siberian High over northern Russia will march westwards perhaps merging with the Scandinavian high.

Once we get Tuesdays wind event out of the way, we may have a better idea of what the weather will be in the run up to Christmas. These charts could look very different in a few days time.

It's looking like a fairly quiet period to come once we get the next few chilly and unsettled days out of the way. We will either get a flat westerly, warm south-westerly or an area of high pressure moving over us in the run up to Christmas. Christmas to New Years week is possibly when things will start to change and become more seasonal.

The sort of charts we're seeing on the ECM and GFS at the moment are very similar to what CFS was predicting over a month ago. Latest CFS see's no change in it's recent output for the run up to Christmas, mostly mild and becoming dryer as we move into Christmas. Turns colder after Christmas and first week of January see's the first easterly. From early January to mid March we alternate between mild, cool and cold with easterlies and northerlies from time to time but the Atlantic always having a go at getting rid of the cold, so a bit of a battleground. This seems fairly realistic so our chances of getting some cold and snow does seem a bit higher this winter, but at the same time it may be a bit much to expect a January 1987, February 1963 and March 2018 all in the one winter.

It's looking more and more likely we are heading into a very quiet and settled period in the run up to Christmas. Cool/chilly and unsettled over the next 3 to 4 days and then a big lift up in upper air temperatures taking place from this weekend and into next week as winds switch into a mild or very mild south-westerly direction.

Turning potentially much dryer from next week as a big area of high pressure will ridge from the south as the Azores High will try to link up with a Scandinavian High. The placement of this high will be critical to how temperatures respond on the surface. warm air advection may also take place and this could also determine how mild we will get next week.

GEM is almost idential to the ECM with a Scandi high developing next week and very warm uppers across Ireland and the UK.

Cloud cover or clear skies would play a big part in how mild or how cold we get. If we get clear skies then night frosts and fog could form causing ground temperatures to be much lower than the upper air temperatures suggest, but if this ends up being a cloudy high with warm southerly winds then we would remain very mild on the surface.

GFS also going for a scandi high to develop next week.

Temperatures by next Friday also set to be significantly above average by next weekend. Temperatures of 14 or 15C a real possibility.

Where the high goes after this is the great unknown. Will the high get flattened off and back into Russia with the Atlantic coming back or will the high move even further northwards allowing a chilly easterly to form?

After a chilly and unsettled week, a settled and milder week will be most welcome.

I think we will see more interesting charts for Christmas develop over the next few days hopefully. A definite rapid cooling trend is beginning to show up now with the GFS as it may turn much colder around Christmas or during the week between Christmas and New Years Day. Fingers crossed this comes to something for us.

I think there will be numerous attempts of blocking over the next 3 to 4 months so several chances of tapping into real cold, however Ireland is a tiny area surrounded by water that is too far west and getting the cold with instability to line up perfectly for us takes alot of luck and several tries usually. All we need is one of them to line up perfectly for us between now and end of February and it would make this winter a success.