FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2021/2022 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

icesnowfrost

The GFS is starting to back up the ECM on the 12z

A lot of snow on the wicklow mountains still today by the way 👍

Kermit.de.frog

Not much further progress today for coldies but the overall trend toward colder conditions for Christmas continues. Whether or not it will be notable is well up for grabs. It's finely balanced as it always is.

It's still too distant. Maybe from tomorrow night we'll be able to start going in to a bit more depth on the charts for Christmas.

Tom_Crean

Witnessed one Christmas with snow falling, this century, 2004. And one with it on the ground, 2010. Probably due one.

1995 had a bit of snow falling in my area.

BLIZZARD7

-10c 850 temps creeping into North Eastern parts Christmas night on the GFS 18z - a variation on a theme, Polar vortex looks shot to pieces yet again.

Meteorite58

Is that what ye are looking for 😁

Donegal Ken

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118334149#Comment_118334149

Thats just the GFS on its way home on Christmas night after a few drinks at the neighbours house 😂. Sunday evening will be a crucial point and we should have a fair idea by then. It could be a case that models show a short spell of temperatures very cold for a day or two and prolonge it as we get closer to the time. Or else the other scenario but let not talk about that.

Gonzo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118334047#Comment_118334047

When we talk about 'White Christmas' there is 2 in my lifetime that I can remember since the late 70s but both had flaws.

The first is 2004. I remember back then Weathercheck was the weather moderator here on boards and he correctly predicted the 2004 event for 25th December. This was indeed a white Christmas but the morning was relatively mild and it started raining and temperature dropped and it turned to snow, this was a cold zonal system I think. By nightfall it had stopped snowing, about 2 inches of very wet snow on the ground, then the temperature started to rise a bit more and a few hours later it was back to green grass.

The next is 2010. Probably the 2nd best snow event of my life and Christmas Day morning we woke up to winter wonderland scenes but we already knew that was the end of the event. The snow had stopped falling the day before and from Stephens Day it started melting and the rest of the winter was fairly mild.

This year, if everything goes exactly how we want it to, the snow will start falling on Christmas morning and snow trains on the go all day and lasting into Stephens Day and possibly beyond, Now wouldn't that be magical. Proper snow falling and no chance of melting. A day of getting the dinner ready while looking at increasing snow depths outside the window. One can only dream.

Getting back to the models, we need to see consistency and perhaps a few more upgrades across the board for me to start getting properly excited. Everything is still a bit marginal or there is a lack of precipitation due to wind direction. The ECM 6z really was the perfect one tho. I want to see another one or two of those tomorrow and everyday from here on in. If we are still seeing great charts from Monday evening, then the excitement can really begin. Until then everything is too far away to be reliable and liable to big changes for better or for worse.

Gonzo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118334073#Comment_118334073

There is some minor to medium warming taking place. This week there will be a warming on the Siberian side.

This is not an SSW but still it may cause the PV to move slightly.

This will weaken and then around New Year's Day there could be a second warming on the United States side.

While still not a SSW this would put the PV under a bit of pressure.

Depending on if these warmings happen we could see a collapse of the AO, however there is scatter in this so not guaranteed.

Most of us here will be glued to the models over the next few weeks, this is not a 2019 pigs ear winter by any means.

sicknotexi

Best Gef ensembles so far this winter.

icesnowfrost

-8 uppers by 2pm Christmas Day. GFS is falling into line and about time. Hope this continues. Very interesting model watching over the next few days.

sicknotexi

snowdepth_20211217_00_216.jpg

Bit of sneachta for Munster Christmas Day on the ECM 0z.

Rebelbrowser

Ho Ho Ho, Merry Christmas from the big two models this morning...

Omicron, Schmomicron.....

pauldry

It's amazing the way the charts have flipped in a couple of days. For me it's too early to be showing this. A couple of years ago there was charts very similar to this and by Christmas Eve the wind turned that little bit Northwesterly and we got wet sleet that night and woke to wetness and sleety showers

However even more years ago probably 8 there was similar blue charts and it snowed in the Midlands on Stephen's Day as some boy racers crashed into our car sliding on the sneachta n ice.

mcburns07

Some interesting weather over the next few months would be a great distraction from the elephant in the room, fingers crossed we get some, I'm very optimistic we will at some stage!

sicknotexi

Big few days of model watching ahead.

pad199207

The dreaded C has shown up at our door so a good snowfall and freeze up will really brighten things up

gerrybhoy

Just as well as the pubs are going to be shutting at 5,so we can all just go out and have a big massive snowball fight🙄

esposito

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118335842#Comment_118335842

*with cans

almostthere12

Well the GFS 6z is a disappointment. Not sure how the low slides south of Ireland on this run but the cold never gets a foothold whereas on the 0z when the low was coming directly up against the cold it was the cold that was winning out!!

Any technical explanations for this?

Shilock

I love these weather conditions, looking at the magic

seaweed Lahinch surf forecast it's perfect for surfing this weekend. Nothing huge, offshore breeze, and a nice mellow swell...sweet

Snowbiee21

Poor Gfs Run. Just when we need a bit of consistency.

Kermit.de.frog

Mix of good and bad, marginally more the latter this morning for snow fans.

I'll wait till all the model runs are finished this evening and we'll have a closer look because Christmas is getting in to more reasonable time frame now.

Still all to play for I hasten to add!

sicknotexi

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118336041#Comment_118336041

GFS, innit!

Tom_Crean

One run, and 8 days out.

It's rarely simple and straightforward. Which is a pity, I get dizzy on roller coasters!

mcburns07

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118336682#Comment_118336682

Tom you've seen enough snow and ice for one lifetime already!

Tom_Crean

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118336756#Comment_118336756

Ha ha ha! I was lucky to come out alive out of the Antartic😂

PukkaStukka

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118336792#Comment_118336792

Brilliant 😁

Kermit.de.frog

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118336756#Comment_118336756

He's the hero we'll need after Christmas

Gonzo

poor enough runs this morning. ECM is more of a northerly so that's mostly cold but dry. GEM is not that cold and the GFS is a snowmaker for Scotland and parts of Eastern England but nothing in there for us. There would need to be serious improvements in this evenings 12z models in terms of snow and cold.

Tom_Crean

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118336866#Comment_118336866

The pups are coming on well, ready for a sleigh, the thought of the Kerry dances keep me going in hard times.

Slashermcguirk

forecasts in my opinion only become relevant 3-5 days out. All will change by Monday or Tuesday anyway, hopefully snow for Christmas :-)

Shane O' Malley

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118337753#Comment_118337753

This is the 5+ days thread so you will not have luck here. 😉

Slashermcguirk

Yes fair point. I still enjoy the rollercoaster

No Bills

Here is the latest take from the UK Met Office showing some of the possible outcomes:

https://youtu.be/W99afTzovdw

Snowbiee21

Oh dear, oh dear, dear!🤫

Kermit.de.frog

Gonzo

GFS 12z The Christmas Turkey and Pigs ear takes center stage, unless you like long fetch south-westerlies from Bermuda. GEM is also getting milder per run. If tonight's ECM is a bust then maybe a few days break from model watching will be good.

Kermit.de.frog

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118338677#Comment_118338677

You're obsessed with Turkey.

It's not as bad as it might first appear. Let's wait for the ECM tonight.

mcburns07

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118338541#Comment_118338541

Gav that you?

https://twitter.com/GavinPartridge/status/1471882412363857929?s=20

Billcarson

How far north or south the lp will go in charts that are a week away is surely impossible to tell for now. Of course as the gfs shows it could go tits up but then again maybe not.....

For all we know maybe it will end up going well south of us in the end and keeping us colder and dryer .

esposito

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118338541#Comment_118338541

Syranbruen that you? 😉

Gonzo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118338838#Comment_118338838

Looking at all the GFS 12z runs it's almost a 50/50 split between a mild Christmas week to New Years period vs a cold to very cold period. One options appears to be removed from the table and that is a dry and high pressure dominated period between Christmas and New years.

Kermit.de.frog

Not a bad ECM

Depending on the exact positioning of the fronts on Christmas Day you could be talking significant snowfall for the north midlands and northwest (much of Connaught) and north on Christmas Day.

It's all to play for.

In this particular set up on Christmas Day it looks to me like a front straddles the northern third of the country. Quite significant that. Disruptive snowfall I would think.

Donegal Ken

Happy Christmas from the ECMWF weather model. This would cause major disruption. Latest Ecmwf weather model showing snowfall from Christmas eve right through to St Stephens day. Will be a interesting weekend of model watching.

nacho libre

I would urge a note of caution, given this low is not seeming to undercut and is more rounded as a result, it could well end up further north meaning rain for all except mountain tops. If it was undercutting, then it would likely trend further south, meaning more areas see snow or possibly we just stay bone dry with cold north easterlies setting in

This is knife edge stuff- high risk, high reward - at the best possible time, but it could very well go pear shaped due to the blocking not being as strong as previously depicted. However, the UKMO is encouraging if you are looking for cold longer term. Whatever happens, as has been mentioned, it seem a dry Christmas is the least likely option for Christmas now. Its a complex setup, with this in mind thinking any one model has this nailed at 8 days out is not wise. However, we are very much in with a shout for a white Christmas in parts of the country. It's not often that we are!

Larbre34

I'm more inclined to agree with Nacho, there isn't a massive amount of moisture at play in any of the scenarios. If we get a reasonable NE flow with a long fetch the sea could pep up a bit, but it looks a wee bit slack for now. Perhaps some sparkling frosts and a raw wind is the best we may expect for a bit of festive atmosphere this year.

Either way it sets up a nice trend for our traditional peak period for winter cold, those first three weeks or so of January.

Donegal Ken

It will be really later Sunday into Monday before we have really any idea on the Situation going into Christmas eve and day. Will then be fine margin if that low is still in play on how far north it makes it and how far west and south the cold makes it.

Oscar Bravo

A wee trip back to 1982. Madness were in the charts, large Tv aerials to pick up top of the pops, a dodgy Ford and epic Snowfall

Danno

Haven't looked at the charts yet... should I?

As a wise old sage once said, look at the trends.

We've got cold and moisture, two very important ingredients. And we've a week to go...

Glass half full sir.

But I haven't looked at the charts yet... should I?