FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2021/2022 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

Kermit.de.frog

Come on guys, stick with the weather.

Gonzo

If the 18z verifies we are in for a very mild final week of 2021 with temperatures possibly reaching 14 or 15C under the right conditions. Temperatures currently running close to a degree above average for the month and with a very mild week possible between Christmas and the 31st this could end up being a significantly warmer than average December with those long fetch south-westerlies.

mcburns07

Luckily those are just as likely to verify as the charts we were looking at in recent days!

nacho libre

That GFS is Offensively mild for the time of year, but I would put up with it if it led to the high going North or North East thereafter to allow very cold Russian air to make it's way here eventually. I am seeing another garden path to walk up in the distance. Ha!

sicknotexi

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118349466#Comment_118349466

I reckon that is a big outsider.

Gonzo

Final Frame of the 18z. That's some serious warm air advection going right up north of Greenland from the Canaries and that blob of cold over Scandinavia is pulling cold down towards us.

This 18z is very unlikely to verify as the mildness is bordering on extreme.

Kermit_de_frog

Just for fun of course, member 22 brings us a nice snowstorm😏

pauldry

The set up is quite complex and uncertain and could go right up to the last day. My Google forecast says 7c now for Xmas Day but I always find around this time of year charts are really difficult to verify as there's so much weather going on. In Summer it's easier as most lows head North. We could have any sort of weather yet Christmas from snow Xmas night to fog frost dry cloudy misty or even wet and stormy. Could anyone at the moment say for certain what weather we will have Xmas day or even which wind direction? Nope. All still to play for really (even if I don't believe it).

Elmer Blooker

I just watched the forecast on BBC News 24 to see the prospects for Xmas, it didn’t go beyond Tuesday so a 36 hour forecast is an indication of the uncertainty at the moment.

Gonzo

The GFS 18z Ensemble, uncertainty is from 23rd of December and after that we have runs that range from +12 uppers to -12 uppers and everything in-between. The warmest outlier get's us to 16C, a temperature that wouldn't be out of place in the middle of July. Of all the time watching these models this is probably the most diverse range of scatter I have ever seen. Absolutely everything is on the table between Christmas Day and early January. The GFS operational is on it's own too with the extreme mild.

Temperatures around 1st of January go 10 to 12C above normal caused by warm air advection. Or you could go to Athens for a blizzard.

BLIZZARD7

UKMO is rubbish this morning, GFS 00z however has heavy snow over Ireland moving south Christmas night into St.Stephens day... Still all to play for - if charts at day 5-6 are changing this much and in this much disagreement, there is little point in looking much further at this point.

GFS then keeps us in a cold North easterly flow after this, the opposite of the 18z last night.

Control follows the OP run -

BLIZZARD7

GEM is even better - 😎

-8c 850 temps moving into the North East by early morning on the 26th

Hopefully ECM follows the GEM/GFS

Rebelbrowser

ECM not good, but totally different again including a storm on 27 Dec! Models still all over the place.

Longing

The ECM had been very poor lately. It not the go to model anymore. I have noticed other models picking up changing signals only for the ECM to follow suit.

Billcarson

The models are a joke atm. Don't think we will know whats in store for Xmas day till wed or Thursday at this stage.

Donegal Ken

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118350103#Comment_118350103

The Ecmwf weather model picked up on storm Barra 8 days out. Let hope it ain't right this time around.

nacho libre

A stand off between the the ECM and UKMO on one side, with the GFS and GEM on the other side(Cold). Will the GFS move towards those two on its next run? The ECM while pants in the short term for Christmas day onwards,does hold out promise later on for something colder. Could we have a Scandi high in the New Year?

Billcarson

Well the latest gfs is still showing the cold winning for later next weekend .

almostthere12

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118350610#Comment_118350610

It is also showing a lot colder air to the north and northeast come mid-week next week.......could this be the next chase with the high heading to Scandinavia?

PokeHerKing

I think the most likely scenario for Xmas wknd is a cold wet mess unfortunately.

icesnowfrost

Flip flopping all over the place but one thing looks certain is that some kind of cold snap all be it a few days is on the cards. Still exciting over the next few days. hopefully we can lock in the cold air.

Gonzo

Just after taken a look at the models and they are more confused now than ever. The only trend I can see is that we may go into a low level cold snap around the 26th of December for 2 to 3 days and then the mild returns just before New Years. This cold snap if it happens will probably be similar to what we had 1st week of December in terms of cold, nothing too cold and a sleety mix is possible.

Getting very tired of the model uncertainty. We could probably do with a weather/model reset over Christmas holidays, get the Atlantic back for 1 weeks and try and set up a proper cold spell for January and back to hopefully more reliable weather models.

Back to the current situation, the low and where it ends up by Christmas Eve will have a big impact on what weather and temperature setup we will have from Christmas Day to New Years Day. Once that low pushes through the models will hopefully become more reliable again for the short term forcasts.

Changwhitewater

There remains a massive spread in the GEFS perturbations, up to 15c on Christmas Day. Here is Dublin for today's 06z and below for yesterday's 12z. Trending colder but a milder outcome still favoured. 12z will be interesting. It must be said though that mild is winning the battle across all models at present. Still, model watching beats listening to the news all day, every day.

esposito

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118351744#Comment_118351744

When doesn’t the mild win these days 🙄

As mentioned by the above posters I’m getting really fed up with the models. Think I’ll just come to here for the updates over the next few days at least.

Changwhitewater

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118351842#Comment_118351842

Mild doesn't always win. But you need to assess likely outcome on all information/models and it is most likely that we will have cold rain in Ireland with risk of snow in northern Ulster. Have a feeling that we will be guessing right up to the day itself as it will be marginal as it usually is in Ireland.

Oscar Bravo

Even met eireann getting tired with the models lol

"Those keeping a keen eye on the Christmas weather know there has been some uncertainty with regard to conditions later this Christmas week, and that remains the case with the weather models still coming into fine focus from Christmas Day onwards.

At the moment however, Christmas day looks like bringing some further rain at times but dry periods too. Highest temperatures ranging 7 to 10 degrees in mostly moderate east to southeast breezes."

Kermit.de.frog

My focus is on Christmas night in terms of potential frontal snowfall. The UKMO and GFS earlier are quite good in that respect.

This is closer to what we want to see and an upgrade on earlier.

The uncertainty remains though unless there is real convergence this evening between all the models.

Billcarson

Well things are definitely improving again.........

Slashermcguirk

Could all be still to play for over Christmas by the sounds of it in terms of snow. If the models are all over the place could be Wednesday or Thursday by the time we really know what will happen

Gonzo

GFS 12z keeps it generally mild throughout the Christmas week with temperatures in the 5 to 9C range by day. Northern Ireland gets a brief flirt with low level cold for a day or so which could allow some sleety wet snow at times and cold rain near coasts. Scotland and eastern UK get about 2 days of cold weather before the mild rolls in from the Atlantic.

Kermit.de.frog

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118352625#Comment_118352625

The control run is better though and has colder air embedded over much of the country Christmas day.

It depends on the positioning of the frontal troughs in relation to the cold air. Somewhere is going to get lucky...

Gonzo

GEM 12z similar to the GFS 12z brings the cold a bit further west into Northern Ireland and Leinster late Christmas Day and into Stephens Day while remaining fairly mild in the west and south-west. If the low goes any further south we would be in a much better position for some cold and wintryness.

Christmas Day

Stephens Day

The low pressure sweeps to the south of Ireland and becomes a channel low and then drifts over North-West France. Temperatures close to freezing especially across Ulster and Leinster. Another interesting looking low is heading eastwards and will likely cause more complications which will either bring us back into mild weather or keep the cold weather going depending on exact track.

The next week is going to be spent tracking several areas of low pressure and hoping they go well south of us. If they continue to track very close to us or over us then we will stay in a fairly mild setup.

Gonzo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118352660#Comment_118352660

The GFS control run has generally been on our side for the past few days and is fairly consistant with keeping us in the cold.

Gonzo

GEM 12z is knife edge stuff throughout. We are generally in low level cold between the mild weather and properly cold weather. We are so close to dragging in some very cold air throughout the Christmas period with this, just that the lows are not going south far enough. If I was living in Scotland I would be getting very excited.

nacho libre

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118352265#Comment_118352265

That must be Weathercheck giving a nod to this forum. The GFS is encouraging for snow possibilities late Christmas night into St Stephens Day. It will be interesting if the ECM moves towards the GFS this evening or sticks to what its last output showed.

esposito

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118352732#Comment_118352732

Will the lows ever f**k off?! Seems to be one after the other except there's the chance they might track south of us.

UKMO is very encouraging. Important to have that model on board.

Gonzo

GFS 12z is one of the mildest runs in the ensemble and becomes a mild outlier on it's own by New Years.

Gonzo

Cold for Christmas Day still is not well supported with the GFS but it wouldn't take much adjustment for many of them to fall in line. Most models are placing the mild/cold boundary somewhere between southern Scotland and Galway/Dublin across to north midlands.

These are the few that brings most of Ireland into the cold for Christmas Day.

This is the best one and actually gets us into the freezer. Very much a cold outlier tho.

This one is also decent.

A few more

roughly 8 out of 31 of the ensemble members look promising for Christmas Day. A southwards shift by about 150 miles to 200 miles would bring many more in line with the above.

almostthere12

Christmas day doesn't bother me either way, over on netweather they seem overly concerned with it.

Problem now is compared with 2 days ago not enough cold air getting into Cork (where I'll be over Christmas), potential for a nice bit of snow if it does.

Gonzo

ECM 12z is mild from beginning to end with cold just for northern half of Scotland.

We are no closer to resolving Christmas Day and beyond as we were yesterday.

Out of the main models the ECM is by far the most unseasonal and dissapointing.

nacho libre

Let's just hope the ECM has this wrong and it climbs down in the next couple of other runs to look more like the other models showing snow chances, otherwise it's going to be a fairly wet Christmas day and St Stephens Day. If by the morning the other models have moved towards the ECM, it could well be game over for any snow before the New Year.

Gonzo

Gavsweather is expecting tomorrow mornings ECM 6z to flip to cold, even if that happens it doesn't mean Ireland is in the firing line. Currently the British Isles looks like a north-east/south-west split between cold to the north and east and mild to the west and south. We need the low pressures on all models to move another 200 miles or so further south and possibly west for Ireland to gain confidence in colder weather. Tomorrow could well be the day that all models go for cold or mild. If not tomorrow then Wednesday.

UKMO looks good. GFS still needs some work and could go either way. GEM is similar. ECM needs a solid flip to cold by the morning.

ben.schlomo

BBC 6 o'clock weather had Xmas Day showing the cold over Scotland and the split showing it much milder all the way southwest of there.

Orion402

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118353564#Comment_118353564

Do yourself a favour and call them the Western isles, even if the name is taken up by small islands off Scotland.

I am sure the unionists would like to retain the idea of the British Isles, however, Western isles is more appropriate for our island culture.

Gonzo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118353692#Comment_118353692

I have no interest in politics and politics is completely off topic in the weather forum. The UK and Ireland including Isle of Man and Channel Islands is often called the British Isles when you want to refer to all 4 countries as a general area. The Western Isles refers to the Outer Hebrides and has nothing to do with Ireland, England or Wales. Now back to the weather and the models this is not a political or geography forum.

Tyrone212

Met office take on Christmas day

The key uncertainty for Christmas Day is where the boundary between cold and milder air will meet and therefore where the greater chances of any snow are. Currently the most likely regions to be in the colder air are Scotland, the far north of England and Northern Ireland where there is the possibility of some snow

Danno

MOD NOTE: Offending post removed.

While I personally don't have much feelings either way about the term British Isles, probably a more neutral term is The UK and Ireland?

Either way please return to talking about the charts and weather! :)

Gonzo

Mod Note: The behaviour from Orion 402 is not tolerated here on boards and completely out of order. All posts to do with his abusive and angry posts along with all off-topic posts are removed so can we all get back on topic to the models and try and make sense of the upcoming weather pattern between now and New Years.

Tom_Crean

8pm Christmas Day 18z gfs. A close run thing so far.

Heading to the Mourne Mountains for Christmas night.

Kermit.de.frog

Good for the north and northwest but none the wiser this evening really. Hopefully more clarity tomorrow.