FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2021/2022 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**
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I think we will see more interesting charts for Christmas develop over the next few days hopefully. A definite rapid cooling trend is beginning to show up now with the GFS as it may turn much colder around Christmas or during the week between Christmas and New Years Day. Fingers crossed this comes to something for us.
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It's definitely a pattern emerging the last few runs with the large blocking high attempting to make a move north west to more favourable positions to unleash cold. As with the 6z, the 12z is a case of nearly - but the high collapses back over us. It's been a dull few weeks for coldies and model watching but there's finally a bit of interest starting to crop up in the reaches of FI again.
GEM 12z making the same attempts but we stop at Day 10.
Not sure where this all fits in with teleconnections/background signals, I'll leave that for someone else to discuss...
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CFS 6z turns us very cold after Christmas and places us in the freezer for first week of January and again later in January with an even colder freeze up. The GFS keeps us high and dry keeping the proper cold limited to the eastern half of Europe with Scandinavia and Greece turning bitterly cold over the next few weeks. Hopefully the GFS will trend more towards todays CFS.
CFS has us high and dry up to about the 27th of December and quite chilly from frost/fog. The high begins to move towards Iceland/Greenland as we head towards New Year Eve.
By New Years Eve winds are biting in from the east with -10C uppers heading westwards across Ireland.
January 2nd looks rather unsettled and bitterly cold, Potential for plenty of snow and blizzard conditions in places.
It remains cold and snowy up to the 6th of January and then a possible Storm Emma style situation as a low tries to move in across Ireland to introduce milder air but we remain on the cold side with winds screeching in from a bitter continent driving bands of snow across Ireland.
The milder air eventually wins out by January 10th but not for long on this particular run as there is another bitter freeze up occurring one week later which if if verified would be brutal cold.
Fingers, toes and everything else crossed that we will at least get one of these freeze ups for January.
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Not sure I'm finding any SSW on the GFS. There does appear to be a slight to medium warming occurring over Russia in the run up to Christmas but compared to a SSW it's very weak in comparison. For an SSW you would need the warming to be in the red colours, particularly the darker reds towards the core. In this chart we only have the yellows. It is a warming but not a warming which would displace or split the PV in 2.
On a completely different note it looks as if the next 10 days will be mostly dry if not completely dry in some places. There is some rain due tomorrow but after that we will be high and dry until either the Atlantic comes back or we get an unstable cold plunge after Christmas. If neither of those happens we could be completely dry till 2022 if the high pressure sticks around for several weeks.
I hope we're not spending the next two to 3 weeks chasing high pressure watching cold unstable plunges go everywhere except Ireland. At the moment all options are on the table and even Christmas Day itself is far from decided upon. The CFS is still playing around with a cold north-easterly around Christmas and some GEM and GFS members also turn us bitterly cold from around Christmas. The majority of the model runs keeps us high and dry until the new year so let's hope for once we get luck on our side and get a direct hit from a very unstable and bitter setup over at some stage over the next month.
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Interesting trend for later next week with heights being forecast to be more and more west/NW. Last three GFS runs for example below.
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GFS 12z just after Christmas looks like it's about to unleash the freezer but however Ireland is still high and dry at this point. Would like to see the high progress further north and west on the models over the coming week.
Christmas Day looks cool and if this verified it would probably be the coldest Christmas Day since 2010 with temperatures around 3 to 6C.
By 28th of December we are getting very close but not quiet there yet.
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CFS 12z currently updating and we look fairly cold from Christmas Day on that too, but will the high get far enough north and hold it's position to allow the Siberian express?
The next few frames after this could get interesting or will the high slip back south-eastwards again.
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