FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2021/2022 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**
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29-11-2021 03:01PM#1
Mod Note
This thread is for posting/discussing/analyzing FI CHARTS ONLY i.e. Charts in the unreliable time frame, generally long range +T120 onward for Winter 2021/2022.
If your post does not specifically relate to a Fantasy Island chart (extended long range charts) then it doesn't belong here - Off topic posts will be moved or deleted.
Thanks
With only a day left in Autumn I thought it would be a good idea to open the Winter FI Extended Range Thread a day early since all FI charts are December based.
After a very mild and dry Autumn how is the first few weeks of Winter shaping up in the run up to Christmas?
We finally ended the very prolonged unbroken streak of very mild weather with a chilly weekend. This cold air has now shifted to our east and we are briefly back into mild Atlantic air once again till about Wednesday.
The next 2 weeks look set to alternate between brief mild south westerlies and cooler zonal north-westerlies. For now everything looks mostly Atlantic driven but there are hints that we could get a cold spell around the middle of December.
The GFS 06z tries to raise the heights over Scandinavia but nothing really comes of it.
We finish up on 15th December looking on the cool side and fairly unsettled.
The Control run in extended range is more successful at raising the heights over Scandinavia and we start to drag in really chilly air from the east from the middle of December in the run up towards Christmas. Very unlikely to verify but hopefully we will see more GFS runs run with this idea over the next 2 weeks.
This does get -10C uppers into the country in a very chilly airflow.
The cold air stays with us till about the 22nd of December and then a battleground situation between the Atlantic and the colder air to our east leaves Ireland fairly mild for Christmas. All of these charts are of course in the completely unreliable timeframe but I thought it would be nice to open the Winter FI Thread with something seasonal. I feel much of December will alternate between mild and cool with nothing too extreme in terms of cold. At the same time I think the excessively mild domination that we saw throughout Autumn has ended it's run and December could well end up being a fairly average month in terms of temperatures.
Post edited by Gonzo on4
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GEM 12z hints at an easterly towards the end of it's run. Unfortunately on this run Ireland is just too far west to tap into the real cold and snow. Wouldn't take much of an adjustment to bring us into a cold unstable easterly.
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CFS 06z also has an easterly for same time period as the GEM, just that this also includes Ireland in the firing line for some cold and possibly snow.
This cold easterly doesn't last long but interesting to see both GEM and CFS cooling things down considerably by the end of the first week of December.
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ECM 12Z looks very interesting with a series of slider Lows moving into the cold air over Ireland. Very cold and wintry looking on the prediction charts with frosty nights. Very wet on the latest run for the SW and Southern half of the country.
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ECM and GEM showing the Storm again for around next Tuesday, UKMO at the earlier stages of development looks like following the ECM and GEM. GFS and ICON not showing it. Time will tell.
Continues with the cool theme, possibly wintry and blustery at times.
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Interesting spill of cold air down from Scandinavia PokeHerKing and it has been very cold there now for some time.
Cold Easterlies at the end of the ECM 12Z, some cold days in there and very frosty nights. GFS much more zonal. ???
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Re the deep area of LP / storm that has been showing up around next Tuesday : ECM 12Z taking a Southerly route and missing Ireland, showing a very wintry day over Ireland.
UKMO 12Z clipping the SW, S coasts with strong winds, dump of snow further North.
GFS 12Z was further North and missing Ireland on earlier runs but now showing making contact and very windy on the latest 12Z
GEM further North, windy over Ireland but not extreme.
ICON 12Z has a deepening area of LP approaching
So a big spread but something knocking about in the neighborhood.
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I feel the next few weeks may begin to trend slightly milder and more stormy with a very active jetsteam. Models are still up in the air from next week but I feel we're in for a typical run up to Christmas with very Atlantic driven setup with the PV becoming very strong at least for a while.
GEM has the storm right over us next Tuesday:
This is followed a few days later by another possible storm.
The other models keep the above storm more towards Iceland rather than dropping south near Ireland/UK.
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I am hoping the turn to a very mobile and potentially stormy period over the next few weeks will only last 2 to 3 weeks tops before a more seasonal change around Christmas or the final week of December.
GFS 12z really looks quite nasty for next week.
The GFS 12z also now picking up on the second storm shown in this mornings Gem run.
We finish up with a battleground scenario between a Scandi High and a raging jetstream with more storms to our north-west.
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GFS 12z showing up 3 potential storms over the next 10 days with southern and western coasts taking a battering.
The one on Monday night/Tuesday looks fairly nasty and could feature quite a bit of rain with it too.
Gusts up to 100km/hour across most of the country.
Saturday 11th of December could be the second storm with another very windy day.
Gusts over 100km/h if this verifies.
Sunday 13th could also be quite stormy on southern coasts.
A 3rd potentially nasty storm around the 16th of December.
If all the above verifies we could be in for a very stormy and wet December and relatively mild most of the time.
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Almost a week into Winter now how are things looking in the run up to Christmas? Right now the models are in a great state of uncertainty as the wind/storm event on Tuesday is causing alot of problems in terms of where do we go next. At the moment it looks like we have a relatively cool and unsettled week to come with regular bouts of wind, rain and showers. Temperatures at night may get low enough for some patchy frost during the week if skies clear and winds die off.
We may get another very windy spell around next weekend or early into the following week. Everything after this Tuesday is rather uncertain so difficult to pinpoint when the next storm will happen.
The GFS is looking at a big lift up in temperatures for next week starting from about the 13th of December as an area of high pressure moves up from the south or south-west. If this happens we should turn alot drier and far more settled. On paper we should turn alot milder too, however if this high pressure sits right over us and skies clear, it could become very cool to cold with frost and fog keeping temperatures at ground level much lower than the upper air temperatures suggest. If the high pressure ends up producing lots of cloud and spots of drizzle then temperatures on the surface may be average or higher than average.
On the GFS 12z the high never really sits over us and the high instead ridges towards Scandinavia, drawing up very mild south-westerlies over Ireland in the run up to Christmas.
We finish up on 21 December still fairly dry but there are signs that the Siberian High over northern Russia will march westwards perhaps merging with the Scandinavian high.
Once we get Tuesdays wind event out of the way, we may have a better idea of what the weather will be in the run up to Christmas. These charts could look very different in a few days time.
Post edited by Gonzo on1 -
The ECM 12z is fairly similar to the GFS but is potentially stormy on Tuesday 14th December.
ECM finishes up wiht another potential storm on it's way. At the same time the Siberian High over Russia is beginning to march westwards...
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It's looking more and more likely we are heading into a very quiet and settled period in the run up to Christmas. Cool/chilly and unsettled over the next 3 to 4 days and then a big lift up in upper air temperatures taking place from this weekend and into next week as winds switch into a mild or very mild south-westerly direction.
Turning potentially much dryer from next week as a big area of high pressure will ridge from the south as the Azores High will try to link up with a Scandinavian High. The placement of this high will be critical to how temperatures respond on the surface. warm air advection may also take place and this could also determine how mild we will get next week.
GEM is almost idential to the ECM with a Scandi high developing next week and very warm uppers across Ireland and the UK.
Cloud cover or clear skies would play a big part in how mild or how cold we get. If we get clear skies then night frosts and fog could form causing ground temperatures to be much lower than the upper air temperatures suggest, but if this ends up being a cloudy high with warm southerly winds then we would remain very mild on the surface.
GFS also going for a scandi high to develop next week.
Temperatures by next Friday also set to be significantly above average by next weekend. Temperatures of 14 or 15C a real possibility.
Where the high goes after this is the great unknown. Will the high get flattened off and back into Russia with the Atlantic coming back or will the high move even further northwards allowing a chilly easterly to form?
After a chilly and unsettled week, a settled and milder week will be most welcome.
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