Relaxation of Restrictions, Part XII Read OP For Mod Warnings

Shelga · 05-07-2021 11:07AM

seamus wrote: »

The reopening of indoor dining last Summer, led directly to the surge in cases that required us to re-impose restrictions again in early October.

So, we would all agree that it would be foolish to just reopen indoor dining again in exactly the same way, because you'll just get the same results. And we're starting from a case load that's 10 times higher than it was last year.

In effect you're asking, "Why aren't we making the same mistakes we made last year?"

It's really irritating when you act like it's exactly the same situation now, with 67% of the population having received a vaccine.

We would not all agree that it would be foolish to reopen indoor dining in the exact same way, because it won't be in the exact same way, because the vaccine provides an extremely high level of protection against this disease, including the delta variant.

I'm guessing you have no skin in the game, in terms of your livelihood being completely destroyed?

ELM327 · 05-07-2021 11:10AM

Increasing cases is largely irrelevant.

The only thing we need to be monitoring is the number in hospital and the number in ICU. If either of those get close to troublesome, then instant sharp lockdown with couple hours notice. (like recent happenings in Aus)

Case counts only help the case fetishists. I am fully vaccinated like a large minority of the country. A larger cohort have one dose and there are thousands getting vaccinated in pharmacies each day. I think its time to open up. Viruses cant tell the difference between a hotel residents bar and a normal bar.

TomSweeney · 05-07-2021 11:10AM

https://youtu.be/WhOg1wFyoDA

Good discussion on the situation in the UK and generally in the world moving on after this ...

Repo101 · 05-07-2021 11:13AM

seamus wrote: »

Sure. But that doesn't alter the fact that we know opening indoor dining will increase cases. Vaccines mean that the nature of this increase is unknown, but it would be foolish to take the "ah sure be grand" approach.
I'm simply saying that the stated goal, as it has been since the end of February, is to avoid having to roll back any restrictions.
Opening indoor dining now, only to have to close it again in 4-6 weeks would be considerably more damaging and costly.
We're expecting another wave to be imminent. The plan is to vaccinate as fast as possible and ride this one through without having to close anything.

"Sure there's a wave coming anyway, we may as well open up before it hits", is a new one, I'll give you that.

Surely, at this point, it is more foolish to take a risk adverse approach and shut the majority of the hospitality sector perpetually because you don't know what is going to happen. I'm getting very tired of listening to people saying we are following the science when it's very clear that the "Irish" version of 'following the science' is contradicted by the majority of countries in the EU.

The reality is that the HSE is a joke and is not fit for purpose. If the issue is a potential increase in hospitalisations then our facilities need to be improved to accommodate that. Shutting down and hoping the vaccine is a silver bullet is not a policy.

It's amazing, that in the age of information, we have people supporting the horrible mismanagement from the likes of Tony Holohan and the government. Other countries wouldn't accept this level of incompetence but the little paddies will always take their medicine.

Russman · 05-07-2021 11:13AM

Stormyteacup wrote: »

Do you really believe if another surge is coming it will be prevented by not allowing controlled indoor dining?? Public transport, private indoor gatherings, hotels, schools and colleges all open - but no, it’s keeping indoor dining closed that will hold this virus at bay?

You make a fair point, but isn't indoor dining really just a polite way of saying indoor drinking ? I mean, if restaurants were allowed open tomorrow, which I think they probably should be - much more easily controlled environment than a pub lets be honest, the vintners and I suspect most on here would be steaming with rage. Instead of crying about a €9 meal like last year you'd have people saying that they "....can have a bottle of wine in XXXX with their dinner, but they can't go in next door and have a few pints, its a disgrace Joe....."

Anyway, in the race between the vaccines, the delta and the covid pass/cert, I think the vaccines win and we'll be open well before we have a workable covid pass solution.

seamus · 05-07-2021 11:15AM

Shelga wrote: »

It's really irritating when you act like it's exactly the same situation now, with 67% of the population having received a vaccine.

We would not all agree that it would be foolish to reopen indoor dining in the exact same way, because it won't be in the exact same way, because the vaccine provides an extremely high level of protection against this disease, including the delta variant.

As of yesterday, just over 51% of the total population have received a first dose, and 37% are fully vaccinated.

In terms of case management, that falls far below the threshold required to keep a lid on things. The most vulnerable cohorts are (mostly) complete, but that will only dampen the hospital impact from a surge in cases, it won't prevent ICUs and beds filling up again.

If we're going to relax restrictions with the aim of not tightening them again, then our approach needs to be more measured, and not hit-and-hope that "maybe it'll work out better than last year".

normanoffside · 05-07-2021 11:18AM

I have always said ISAG had some kind of motive beyond Covid. This tweet and article give us an idea of what their plans are.

Meanwhile they are still getting trotted out over here on every media source as ‘experts’

https://twitter.com/skepticalzebra/status/1411415649994395653?s=21

https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1457950/lockdown-labour-scientists-plot-bit-more-restrictions

PTH2009 · 05-07-2021 11:20AM

NPHET should told a thanks but no thanks when they tell the government there recommendations in a few weeks or better again be told they have no input of any kind for the Hospitality industry

Why should they skip todays talks but in a few weeks time swoop in and once again recommemd they close or use some farse of a covid pass system

_Kaiser_ · 05-07-2021 11:23AM

Hurrache wrote: »

No, because there's many clowns who haven't a clue how to wear them effectively.

Or perhaps - and let's be honest - who don't particularly care/aren't worried anyway, and are only doing it so they're not fined rather than anything else.

For anyone in their 40s/50s or younger and generally healthy that's probably a reasonable position at this stage given vaccination progress and better information generally on who's at risk or not.

Don't Chute! · 05-07-2021 11:25AM

Snooker Loopy wrote: »

I see you have "Kilkenny: 35 and counting" on your profile.

You should then be fairly familiar with the concept of an injured player not playing in order that they will be able to play in the future.

How did Henry Shefflin trying to play on a severed cruciate in 2010 work out? He hobbled off after a few minutes and Kilkenny were well beaten.

The exact same principle is at work during Covid. Ireland as a society cannot play when it is injured. Returning to play before you're ready will likely mean a further worse injury lay off.

What on earth did I just read?! Simplistic nonsense. Although I wouldn’t be surprised if this is the way the government are looking at it too.

DarkJager21 · 05-07-2021 11:27AM

seamus wrote: »

As of yesterday, just over 51% of the total population have received a first dose, and 37% are fully vaccinated.

In terms of case management, that falls far below the threshold required to keep a lid on things. The most vulnerable cohorts are (mostly) complete, but that will only dampen the hospital impact from a surge in cases, it won't prevent ICUs and beds filling up again.

If we're going to relax restrictions with the aim of not tightening them again, then our approach needs to be more measured, and not hit-and-hope that "maybe it'll work out better than last year".

First we had to "flatten the curve", then we had to "hold firm" while our "health service" increased capacity. Then we had to "hold firm" while the vulnerable were vaccinated, now we have to "hold firm" again in case the Delta variant overwhelms the hospitals.

What exactly did the health service do with the time and money provided to them during the above if we are being told the exact same thing again?

Vicxas · 05-07-2021 11:31AM

normanoffside wrote: »

I have always said ISAG had some kind of motive beyond Covid. This tweet and article give us an idea of what their plans are.

Meanwhile they are still getting trotted out over here on every media source as ‘experts’

https://twitter.com/skepticalzebra/status/1411415649994395653?s=21

https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1457950/lockdown-labour-scientists-plot-bit-more-restrictions

They're experts in the way the Iona Institute are experts on same sex marriage and abortions.

darconio · 05-07-2021 11:32AM

shocksy wrote: »

The answer is yes. It would also help the serious drinking problem this country has.

I know the prohibitionism was very successful indeed

I actually started drinking more since the lockdown, and by the way, is not shutting down the pubs that you fight the so called "drinking culture" :rolleyes: , we have plenty off-licence and supermarket selling alcohol.
That reminds me when pubs were closing on good friday: it was actually a good excuse to gather in somebody's gaff and get sh1tfaced (and I would normally know my limit if I go to the pub)

OwenM · 05-07-2021 11:34AM

seamus wrote: »

As of yesterday, just over 51% of the total population have received a first dose, and 37% are fully vaccinated.

In terms of case management, that falls far below the threshold required to keep a lid on things. The most vulnerable cohorts are (mostly) complete, but that will only dampen the hospital impact from a surge in cases, it won't prevent ICUs and beds filling up again.

If we're going to relax restrictions with the aim of not tightening them again, then our approach needs to be more measured, and not hit-and-hope that "maybe it'll work out better than last year".

Why haven't beds and ICU's filled up in the UK, their caseload has increased massively in the last few weeks and Delta has been responsible for >80% of those for over three weeks.

Working class heroes · 05-07-2021 11:37AM

seamus wrote: »

As of yesterday, just over 51% of the total population have received a first dose, and 37% are fully vaccinated.

In terms of case management, that falls far below the threshold required to keep a lid on things. The most vulnerable cohorts are (mostly) complete, but that will only dampen the hospital impact from a surge in cases, it won't prevent ICUs and beds filling up again.

If we're going to relax restrictions with the aim of not tightening them again, then our approach needs to be more measured, and not hit-and-hope that "maybe it'll work out better than last year".

Can you define this threshold please?

bucketybuck · 05-07-2021 11:39AM

_Kaiser_ wrote: »

Or perhaps - and let's be honest - who don't particularly care/aren't worried anyway, and are only doing it so they're not fined rather than anything else.

For anyone in their 40s/50s or younger and generally healthy that's probably a reasonable position at this stage given vaccination progress and better information generally on who's at risk or not.

It is kinda funny to read in fairness.

People judging and critiquing mask wearers among a population that couldn't give a **** about them and are mostly only doing so under duress.

Next up we will be assessing the shovel wielding prowess of prisoners on a chain gang...

bucketybuck · 05-07-2021 11:40AM

Working class heroes wrote: »

Can you define this threshold please?

Good luck with that.

seamus · 05-07-2021 11:42AM

OwenM wrote: »

Why haven't beds and ICU's filled up in the UK, their caseload has increased massively in the last few weeks and Delta has been responsible for >80% of those for over three weeks.

They are filling up.
More slowly, but they are. The doubling rate for hospitalisations in the UK has increased. It was 30 days last week, now it's about 25 days.

Shelga · 05-07-2021 11:42AM

seamus wrote: »

As of yesterday, just over 51% of the total population have received a first dose, and 37% are fully vaccinated.

In terms of case management, that falls far below the threshold required to keep a lid on things. The most vulnerable cohorts are (mostly) complete, but that will only dampen the hospital impact from a surge in cases, it won't prevent ICUs and beds filling up again.

If we're going to relax restrictions with the aim of not tightening them again, then our approach needs to be more measured, and not hit-and-hope that "maybe it'll work out better than last year".

Do you accept that we are not in the same position as last summer, when there was not a glimmer of a vaccine?

05-07-2021 11:46AM

Fandymo wrote: »

Yeah, definitely not anti drinking haha. The mask slipped literally 1 post later.

I dont think the "drinking problem" in this country is near as bad as made out, however expressing an opinion that there may be a drinking problem in the country is not the same as being anti drinking

seamus · 05-07-2021 11:46AM

Working class heroes wrote: »

Can you define this threshold please?

It's somewhere around 55% fully vaccinated, based on what we've seen in Israel. There will be some regional variations due to the types of vaccines used, and cultural differences in how people intermix. Israel is as close as one can get to an "ideal conditions" all-population test.

So when we have about 2.7m people fully vaccinated we can seriously plan around lifting all restrictions. Until then the only option really is to limit higher-risk stuff to vaccinated/tested people, or keep them closed.

JRant · 05-07-2021 11:49AM

seamus wrote: »

As of yesterday, just over 51% of the total population have received a first dose, and 37% are fully vaccinated.

In terms of case management, that falls far below the threshold required to keep a lid on things. The most vulnerable cohorts are (mostly) complete, but that will only dampen the hospital impact from a surge in cases, it won't prevent ICUs and beds filling up again.

If we're going to relax restrictions with the aim of not tightening them again, then our approach needs to be more measured, and not hit-and-hope that "maybe it'll work out better than last year".

Why use the percentage of total population as a metric?
The HSE have been using percentage of adult population for a while now.
For anyone under 18 COVID is a complete nonentity so why consider them when talking about vaccination levels we need to reach before opening up?

FileNotFound · 05-07-2021 11:55AM

seamus wrote: »

It's somewhere around 55% fully vaccinated, based on what we've seen in Israel. There will be some regional variations due to the types of vaccines used, and cultural differences in how people intermix. Israel is as close as one can get to an "ideal conditions" all-population test.

So when we have about 2.7m people fully vaccinated we can seriously plan around lifting all restrictions. Until then the only option really is to limit higher-risk stuff to vaccinated/tested people, or keep them closed.

While I cannot comment on the actual figure - I do think the Gov are in a position to say we can open when we reach X% full vaccination and X% are first dose.

I actually do not care about the actual restrictions, its the lack of a plan that kills me.

Given the UK have been looking pretty safe and have very high case numbers but very low hospital cases. I think they were on 80+% first and 55+% second dose in the adult population when it started circulating heavily. They heavily dosed with AZ which seems to be inferior to others.

We are pretty much at 70% first and 50% full using a mix.

Maybe we could set the UK figure above and then start top live again?

Furze99 · 05-07-2021 11:56AM

seamus wrote: »

It's somewhere around 55% fully vaccinated, based on what we've seen in Israel. There will be some regional variations due to the types of vaccines used, and cultural differences in how people intermix. Israel is as close as one can get to an "ideal conditions" all-population test..

When this Covid broke in March 2020, the general consensus from health authorities was that anyone over 60 was more at risk.

We are well into the vaccination scheme now with large numbers in their 40s and 50s fully vaccinated. And yet, people like my wife & myself in our 60s, are not.

Someone/ some people in the HSE made a big mistake in deciding to go down the AZ route for the c.400,000 citizens in this 'at risk' 60s age group. I don't hear anyone being held to account either in HSE or the government.

Remember Varadkar and his advice 'take this AZ vaccine or go to the back of the queue' Well we followed his dictate and we still find ourselves at the back of the queue.........

Working class heroes · 05-07-2021 11:59AM

seamus wrote: »

It's somewhere around 55% fully vaccinated, based on what we've seen in Israel. There will be some regional variations due to the types of vaccines used, and cultural differences in how people intermix. Israel is as close as one can get to an "ideal conditions" all-population test.

So when we have about 2.7m people fully vaccinated we can seriously plan around lifting all restrictions. Until then the only option really is to limit higher-risk stuff to vaccinated/tested people, or keep them closed.

Thanks.
Would you consider schools in this category?

RobitTV · 05-07-2021 11:59AM

Interesting developments from Singapore...

Singapore will STOP counting Covid-19 cases as officials say it's time to 'live with this like the flu and get on with our lives'

- Ministers in Singapore have laid out their vision for a future living with Covid
- They say virus will become 'like flu' as vaccines and treatments reduce severity
- Daily case tally could be dropped as routine testing eases with only serious cases tracked, though border checks and vaccine passports will remain

The Singaporean ministers said: 'We can't eradicate Covid.

'But we can turn the pandemic into something much less threatening, like influenza, hand, foot and mouth disease, or chickenpox, and get on with our lives.

Responder XY · 05-07-2021 11:59AM

Furze99 wrote: »

When this Covid broke in March 2020, the general consensus from health authorities was that anyone over 60 was more at risk.

We are well into the vaccination scheme now with large numbers in their 40s and 50s fully vaccinated. And yet, people like my wife & myself in our 60s, are not.

Someone/ some people in the HSE made a big mistake in deciding to go down the AZ route for the c.400,000 citizens in this 'at risk' 60s age group. I don't hear anyone being held to account either in HSE or the government.

Remember Varadkar and his advice 'take this AZ vaccine or go to the back of the queue' Well we followed his dictate and we still find ourselves at the back of the queue.........

That wasn't a mistake - it was good common sense at the time to focus resources available (AZ) on the people who could benefit (over 60s)

Delta impacting the effectiveness of one does vrs. two was a curveball that wasn't known at that time. Nobody had a crystal ball.

seamus · 05-07-2021 12:00PM

JRant wrote: »

Why use the percentage of total population as a metric?
The HSE have been using percentage of adult population for a while now.
For anyone under 18 COVID is a complete nonentity so why consider them when talking about vaccination levels we need to reach before opening up?

There are many metrics to consider in vaccine rollout, and all are valid for specific uses.

Tracking the % of vaccines administered per eligible adult tells you how far away you are from administering vaccines to everyone who can possibly get it. This is perfectly reasonable. If your job is to paint a wall in a house, you'd never say the job is only half done because the other side of the plasterboard hasn't been painted.

But from an immunity level, the entire population figure is important to measure the level of protection in the population. Under-16s aren't exempt from vaccination they can't get covid. They can still get and spread covid and therefore in terms of measuring how far along we are in whole-population protection, the total population vaccination percentage, is important.

Populations freely intermix. Therefore for herd immunity it is the % protected in the entire population that's important.

Now, I personally feel that the absolute need to achieve herd immunity across the whole population is a bit overplayed. That in many respects it is fair to consider the under-12 and over-12 populations to have a somewhat natural disconnect. The former having a very limited "bubble" of contacts and being less susceptible to spreading covid.

But that's an assumption. We can't base our decision on it unless the data demonstrates it.

OwenM · 05-07-2021 12:02PM

seamus wrote: »

They are filling up.
More slowly, but they are. The doubling rate for hospitalisations in the UK has increased. It was 30 days last week, now it's about 25 days.

They are doing 330K doses a day (200k 2nd vaccine doses a day), with ~50% of the eligible population fully vaccinated already. The relationship between cases and hospitalisation is very different.

We have been achieving 50k doses a day last week (several times better then the UK), if the Romanian vaccines materialise this could increase dramatically - and here's why - the Romanian government are selling them because they are going out of date - that puts a gun to Paul Reid's head as soon as they hit the airport runway, dumping vaccines because they are out of date is not a good look.

DarkJager21 · 05-07-2021 12:03PM

RobitTV wrote: »

Interesting developments from Singapore...

Meanwhile in Ireland we are at the cutting edge of fighting Covid by destroying lives & businesses so nobody ever dies from Covid again, because Paddy knows better than everybody else in the whole world :rolleyes:

Relaxation of Restrictions, Part XII *Read OP For Mod Warnings*

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Relaxation of Restrictions, Part XII Read OP For Mod Warnings