Relaxation of Restrictions, Part XI Read OP For Mod Warnings

charlie14 · 27-05-2021 09:18PM

CalamariFritti wrote: »

There is no formula of course and I'm not belittling your stance as such. But it must stand to reason that there is an unknown number of undetected infections. It has to be.

No worries, it`s a discussion forum. You are quite entitled to question my stance and if I take it as personal that would be my problem not yours.
I am not, or never have contested that there are unknown numbers of undetected infections. My problem with the number of unknowns is how it has been used by some attempting to sell the idea of natural herd immunity.
I have never seen the point of IFR, or the accuracy if it had any point, as the infection rate is an unknown

TomSweeney · 27-05-2021 09:22PM

Richard Hillman wrote: »

5,000 at Croke Park in August. Mother of jaysis. And you get the impression that if they had it their way and there was no pressure on, NPHET would still want behind closed doors sport.

The UK who are generally 1 month ahead of us are looking for full stadiums next month.

I hope the GAA give them the F-U and host the All-Ireland finals in the North.

It's gas as you say, UK are ahead - but only by 1 month / 6 weeks max, so why are we no where near where the UK were a month ago >?

KrustyUCC · 27-05-2021 09:28PM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

An almost entirely positive article on restrictions and surprise surprise, everyone focusing on the one negative element.

Supposedly those who see a rationale for not having an immediate free for all are the doom mongers

Its very unambitious targets in a lot of ways

The targets seem to correspond roughly with level 1 target this year which is the best case scenario 'planned' for

Yes they might be subject to change and hopefully they will

Still 50 in July or 100 at a wedding in August with the vast vast majority fully vaccinated is very low bar

Sobit1964 · 27-05-2021 09:29PM

https://medicine.wustl.edu/news/good-news-mild-covid-19-induces-lasting-antibody-protection/

Good news: Mild COVID-19 induces lasting antibody protection
People who have had mild illness develop antibody-producing cells that can last lifetime

Well thats great news, I wonder what the number of people might be that had mild covid and didn't bother to get tested. I suspect we are further along this process than many suspect. This would be a good thing.

Richard Hillman · 27-05-2021 09:35PM

The UK had their snooker final with no restrictions when they had 52% of the population with 1 vaccine.

NPHET probably won't allow such an event until we're at about 80-85% (and thats when you're reaching the vaccine resistant)

It is ****ing mental what is going on.

ACitizenErased · 27-05-2021 09:39PM

Find the stadium guidelines absolutely ridiculous. 5000 people in Croke Park in August. Embarrassing, honestly. Embarrassing.

Graham · 27-05-2021 09:39PM

Richard Hillman wrote: »

NPHET probably won't allow such an event until we're at about 80-85% (and thats when you're reaching the vaccine resistant)

It is ****ing mental what is going on.

I think it's probably a good sign that that we're now having to invent scenarios to get outraged over.

27-05-2021 09:42PM

Richard Hillman wrote: »

The UK had their snooker final with no restrictions when they had 52% of the population with 1 vaccine.

NPHET probably won't allow such an event until we're at about 80-85% (and thats when you're reaching the vaccine resistant)

It is ****ing mental what is going on.

So what you are proposing is that gatherings should be allowed as long as everyone in attendance has a negative pcr test within 24 hours of the event. That’s far more restrictive than any proposal so far

Richard Hillman · 27-05-2021 09:43PM

Graham wrote: »

I think it's probably a good sign that that we're now having to invent scenarios to get outraged over.

What's being invented? We'll be at around 70-80% come August? What do you mean by that?

Stormyteacup · 27-05-2021 09:49PM

charlie14 wrote: »

No worries, it`s a discussion forum. You are quite entitled to question my stance and if I take it as personal that would be my problem not yours.
I am not, or never have contested that there are unknown numbers of undetected infections. My problem with the number of unknowns is how it has been used by some attempting to sell the idea of natural herd immunity.
I have never seen the point of IFR, or the accuracy if it had any point, as the infection rate is an unknown

You may not see the point but epidemiologists have a use for IFR. It’s important to compare this virus to other known viruses, and an educated guesstimate of IFR is common practice in the scientific community.

The fact that some may commandeer that number to sell herd immunity is your personal issue. It’s irrational to dismiss IFR out of hand as ‘gobbledegook’. Acknowledged unknown numbers of confirmed cases due to testing discrepancies worldwide and asymptomatic cases, does not trump unknown numbers of total infections. Both are inaccurate.

hynesie08 · 27-05-2021 09:51PM

Richard Hillman wrote: »

The UK had their snooker final with no restrictions when they had 52% of the population with 1 vaccine.

NPHET probably won't allow such an event until we're at about 80-85% (and thats when you're reaching the vaccine resistant)

It is ****ing mental what is going on.

And they had the first rounds with 33% capacity, that's how scaling up works.....

Vaccinated30 · 27-05-2021 09:52PM

Any ideas when kids soft play will open. Dying to get the kids to the balls and slides for a play

27-05-2021 09:55PM

Vaccinated30 wrote: »

Any ideas when kids soft play will open. Dying to get the kids to the balls and slides for a play

Looking like a lovely weekend. Lots or outdoor playgrounds etc open

User142 · 27-05-2021 09:55PM

I am at a loss tonight. The serious limits on our freedom will still be here in August and possibly beyond despite the vaccination numbers and its being painted as a massive easing and NPHET having an upbeat outlook.

This is insanity. Arbitrary numbers they have put on August outdoor sports events and other gatherings should be ridiculed not applauded at the bare minimum.

MOR316 · 27-05-2021 09:55PM

hynesie08 wrote: »

I'm a man of my word, your "source" is a lying ****ehawk

That's your definition of "the high ground?"

Timmy O Toole · 27-05-2021 09:57PM

User142 wrote: »

I am at a loss tonight. The serious limits on our freedom will still be here in August and possibly beyond despite the vaccination numbers and its being painted as a massive easing and NPHET having an upbeat outlook.

No difference atall from last summer despite every adult in the country being offered a vaccine by end of June.

charlie14 · 27-05-2021 09:57PM

Deleted User wrote: »

IFR is very relevant. It was always known, even in the earliest days, that the ifr was less than originally inferred through detections alone. It was an open question as to whether the actual infection rates were multiples of what we detected. If the fir had been closer to 0.2% we would be close to population immunity now in Europe

For the continent of Europe if the IFR was 0.2% then we would have herd immunity, but the present estimate of 0.6% has little practical use that I can see.
Whether 0.2% or 0.6% it`s a universal number. For individual countries I would look at their CFR as being of more practical use.

hynesie08 · 27-05-2021 09:58PM

MOR316 wrote: »

That's your definition of "the high ground?"

Yeah, easier to spot hawks up here.

27-05-2021 10:00PM

charlie14 wrote: »

For the continent of Europe if the IFR was 0.2% then we would have herd immunity, but the present estimate of 0.6% has little practical use that I can see.
Whether 0.2% or 0.6% it`s a universal number. For individual countries I would look at their CFR as being of more practical use.

For individual countries Cfr is useless. Not least because testing criteria varies massively country to country and at different time periods within countries

MOR316 · 27-05-2021 10:01PM

hynesie08 wrote: »

Yeah, easier to spot hawks up here.

OK...Fair enough...

I'll take the even higher ground

marno21 · 27-05-2021 10:02PM

Cinemas in June and Croke Park at 6% capacity in August.

hynesie08 · 27-05-2021 10:02PM

MOR316 wrote: »

OK...Fair enough...

I'll take the even higher ground

My source said you won't

Beechwoodspark · 27-05-2021 10:02PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Find the stadium guidelines absolutely ridiculous. 5000 people in Croke Park in August. Embarrassing, honestly. Embarrassing.

What’s embarrasing about it? We need to minimise the risks here

Itssoeasy · 27-05-2021 10:04PM

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

What’s embarrasing about it? We need to minimise the risks here

There’s minimise the risk and there’s 5,000 people in an 82,000 capacity stadium which is far too cautious.

charlie14 · 27-05-2021 10:04PM

Stormyteacup wrote: »

You may not see the point but epidemiologists have a use for IFR. It’s important to compare this virus to other known viruses, and an educated guesstimate of IFR is common practice in the scientific community.

The fact that some may commandeer that number to sell herd immunity is your personal issue. It’s irrational to dismiss IFR out of hand as ‘gobbledegook’. Acknowledged unknown numbers of confirmed cases due to testing discrepancies worldwide and asymptomatic cases, does not trump unknown numbers of total infections. Both are inaccurate.

Guesstimating may be common practice in the scientific community.
Where mathematics is concerned it`s gobbledegook.

TomSweeney · 27-05-2021 10:05PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Find the stadium guidelines absolutely ridiculous. 5000 people in Croke Park in August. Embarrassing, honestly. Embarrassing.

All of them fully masked up ?

f*cking joke !!!

MOR316 · 27-05-2021 10:07PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Find the stadium guidelines absolutely ridiculous. 5000 people in Croke Park in August. Embarrassing, honestly. Embarrassing.

The only embarrassing thing about that is the ginnits who will spend money to watch Dublin run away with it...Again!

MOR316 · 27-05-2021 10:09PM

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

What’s embarrasing about it? We need to minimise the risks here

We were told that in sex ed...

I can safely say about 99% of the population ignored that

27-05-2021 10:11PM

Dempo1 wrote: »

I would say not necessarily with city, large town locations who have all year round trade but certainly Christmas /new year eve trade absolutely crucial.

My real concern is the Tourist sector, Seasonal hospitality etc, they have a double whammy, the points I raised earlier but also the absence of any foreign visitors, Domestic Tourism will not on the slightest save them this year, its far to late.

Do you think there will be no foreign visitors at all this year. Haven’t seen any around but maybe it’s different place to place.Not every country is on the mhq list so wonder would some still want to come here. The thing is with so much still closed in the way of recreation would it be off putting and am thinking would be very much so.Maybe People put off travel in general now. So awful for our not so long ago thriving tourist industry, and all the people employed in the sector. Really saddening.

Itssoeasy · 27-05-2021 10:11PM

MOR316 wrote: »

The only embarrassing thing about that is the ginnits who will spend money to watch Dublin run away with it...Again!

Ah come on it’s only may ffs. At least let the other 31 dream for a bit longer. But yeah it’s not like there’ll be any change on that front. Btw I’ve not heard the word ginnit in years. My grandfather used to use it all the time. Great word.

Relaxation of Restrictions, Part XI *Read OP For Mod Warnings*

Comments

Relaxation of Restrictions, Part XI Read OP For Mod Warnings