Relaxation of Restrictions, Part XI Read OP For Mod Warnings

Boggles · 21-05-2021 09:09AM

Silentcorner wrote: »

Either way it ended at the beginning of February, we could have relaxed the severe restrictions and it would have had very little impact on our health system....you know this yourself.

Like several countries in Europe did and had to go right back into severe restrictions?

That's right, we aren't allowed talk about them are ye?

Now Florida on the other hand.

Boggles · 21-05-2021 09:11AM

Silentcorner wrote: »

Yip...the same posters who bought into the "new virus" scare mongering nonsense that was pushed on us last February.

Names?

Silentcorner · 21-05-2021 09:11AM

Boggles wrote: »

Like several countries in Europe did and had to go right back into severe restrictions?

That's right, we aren't allowed talk about them are ye?

Now Florida on the other hand.

Why don't you talk about us...

WE relaxed the restrictions after our first viral surge...what happened next?

gozunda · 21-05-2021 09:32AM

_Kaiser_ wrote: »

The post above could easily and justifiably have been leveled at you and others only a few months ago.
I continue to find it hugely bemusing that the same posters who spent a year belittling and dismissing people who were against the largely disproportionate and harsh restrictions - and who constantly cited examples elsewhere to justify it - have now apparently done a complete 180 and are now attacking people for wanting assurances and certainty from Government that the same excuses won't be used to slide us back into lockdowns and level 5s in the coming months. It's the same posters who are claiming that the sudden and unexpected acceleration of the easing of restrictions a few weeks ago was always the plan and attacked others for asking why, and accusing them of never being happy etc. I guess the difference is some will accept what they're told without question or analysis if it comes from official or authoritative sources, whereas most will still want to see the reasoning and detail behind it. Personally I think the latter is a lot healthier for a democratic and representative society, and the former is a mindset that has no place in the liberal Republic we claim to be.

So just to summarise that:

All the posters you disagreed with (and who are all obviously wrong) were all saying the exact same thing and all had a hive mind. And alone you bravely stood up against them to uphold the truth! Something something Republic liberal democratic representative authoritarian mindset. And all because you need assurance and to be told everything will be ok?

Nothing like a bunch of superfluous generalisations early in the morning tbf ...

21-05-2021 09:36AM

Silentcorner wrote: »

Why don't you talk about us...

WE relaxed the restrictions after our first viral surge...what happened next?

A steady and consistent increase in cases until we reimposed restrictions in October, which temporarily put the breaks on until December.

prunudo · 21-05-2021 09:39AM

Listening to the radio this morning, there was a guy from the WHO on the news. He was talking up the likelihood of increased restrictions due to the Indian variant.
I think its understandable that some posters are still concerned about the uncertainty over the next 10 months and what may happen during the winter months. Although it hasn't been mentioned by government, there is definitely an effort to keep the fear going. Whether that stems from the media or what, I'm not sure. Just as paper doesn't refuse ink, the airwaves don't refuse opinions.

Silentcorner · 21-05-2021 09:43AM

Deleted User wrote: »

A steady and consistent increase in cases until we reimposed restrictions in October, which temporarily put the breaks on until December.

So between May and September we didn't see a surge...thanks, that was my point.

21-05-2021 09:50AM

Silentcorner wrote: »

So between May and September we didn't see a surge...thanks, that was my point.

Between July and October the rate in increase was constant. It only looked like a surge in October because we started from an extremely low base in July. In December, the base we started from was 250, in July it was 10

Silentcorner · 21-05-2021 09:51AM

Deleted User wrote: »

Between July and October the rate in increase was constant. It only looked like a surge in October because we started from an extremely low base in July. In December, the base we started from was 250, in July it was 10

Thanks again...the restrictions between now and September are pointless.

This year we have a load of citizens vaccinated and more community immunity.

Graham · 21-05-2021 09:59AM

Silentcorner wrote: »

This year we have a load of citizens vaccinated and more community immunity.

and as more are vaccinated, restrictions are relaxed. That's how it's going to work.

21-05-2021 10:00AM

Silentcorner wrote: »

Thanks again...the restrictions between now and September are pointless.

This year we have a load of citizens vaccinated and more community immunity.

I still dont think you get it.

From July to October last we doubled every 20 days or so.

10 to 20 to 40 to 80 to 160 to 320 to 640 to 1280

If we had started at 400 like we are today, the same growth would give
400 to 800 to 1600 to 3200 to 6400.

Now thankfully we have an effective vaccine which means its different and can relax with confidence that we wont face rapid growth, and even if growth were to occur serious illness will be prevented in most cases. But without the vaccine we would have needed to get to double digits to avoid that type of scenario. The scenario in which infection grew in summer at a rate that would not have been sustainable had we started from a higher base

Boggles · 21-05-2021 10:02AM

Silentcorner wrote: »

Why don't you talk about us...

WE relaxed the restrictions after our first viral surge...what happened next?

Certain anonymous internet "experts" and quite public "experts" declared the pandemic over?

A lot of them have decided to play extreme hide and seek since, some just outright lied about what they had declared mere months earlier.

Silentcorner · 21-05-2021 10:05AM

Graham wrote: »

and as more are vaccinated, restrictions are relaxed. That's how it's going to work.

Ya Graham, clearly this pace of relaxation of restrictions makes perfect sense to you, but some of us know the numbers from last summer, who recognize that we have most or all of our vulnerable vaccinated, who see that we have greater natural community immunity but still seem to be re opening in a extremely slow conservative manner when we know there isn't a chance of a viral surge until next winter.

It doesn't make sense Graham....

Silentcorner · 21-05-2021 10:07AM

Boggles wrote: »

Certain anonymous internet "experts" and quite public "experts" declared the pandemic over?

A lot of them have decided to play extreme hide and seek since, some just outright lied about what they had declared mere months earlier.

Go away out of it, your just howling at the moon.

I've asked you repeatedly to name one expert that has been remotely accurate in their predictions of how this virus will behave and you haven't been able to....

Graham · 21-05-2021 10:09AM

Silentcorner wrote: »

some of us know the numbers from last summer, who recognize that we have most or all of our vulnerable vaccinated, who see that we have greater natural community immunity but still seem to be re opening in a extremely slow conservative manner

That's an interesting analysis and you're certainly free to keep telling yourself you're absolutely right over the next few months if it makes you feel better.

It's not going to change our approach and I have to say I'm ok with that.

Boggles · 21-05-2021 10:10AM

Silentcorner wrote: »

Go away out of it, your just howling at the moon.

I've asked you repeatedly to name one expert that has been remotely accurate in their predictions of how this virus will behave and you haven't been able to....

I can name some who have been batshít inaccurate.

TBF a lot of them are self declared experts.

Cook book authors and such.

That said they do now how to shake the money out of the weak minded, nice little earners by some accounts.

FintanMcluskey · 21-05-2021 10:11AM

Boggles wrote: »

I can name some who have been batshít inaccurate.

TBF a lot of them are self declared experts.

Cook book authors and such.

That said they do now how to shake the money out of the week minded, nice little earners by some accounts.

Are you talking about NPHET?

Boggles · 21-05-2021 10:14AM

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

Are you talking about NPHET?

You do know they all have 'day jobs' Fintan?

But no, I'm talking about the online grifters and quite high profile public ones whose falsehoods have been parroted on here for 15 months.

ArthurDayne · 21-05-2021 10:51AM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Now thankfully we have an effective vaccine which means its different and can relax with confidence that we wont face rapid growth, and even if growth were to occur serious illness will be prevented in most cases.

As an aside, it's probably worth pointing out that despite what you (correctly) say here, we are not relaxing with confidence. The relaxation remains cautious and despite the situation being different from last year, we are not even back to where we were last summer in hospitality.

So while I don't believe we will need or can necessarily sustain another lockdown, I can appreciate that people have seen the justification for the more stringent restrictions being used in quite an elastic way. And that elasticity has also applied to the duration of some of those restrictions, where stricter measures like distance limits seemed to stretch well beyond whatever timeframe they were [apparently] proportionate....while nobody still seems able to tell me in any empirical way why opening indoor dining and pubs now under similar restrictive measures to last summer would not be safe.

So yes, one would think a lockdown in winter is unlikely (despite the sterling contribution of State authorities in Ireland and across Europe to the scaremongering about the AZ vaccine), but the "abundance of caution" policy does not unreasonably lead people to wonder how such caution might manifest itself in the form of restrictions when we re-enter respiratory illness season later in the year -- even if it might not necessarily be a full lockdown.

Graham · 21-05-2021 11:06AM

ArthurDayne wrote: »

the "abundance of caution" policy does not unreasonably lead people to wonder how such caution might manifest itself in the form of restrictions when we re-enter respiratory illness season later in the year -- even if it might not necessarily be a full lockdown.

'respiratory illness season'?

Which respiratory illness.

Are you talking about covid or are we back to the flu lockdown conspiracy theory?

charlie14 · 21-05-2021 11:16AM

Silentcorner wrote: »

Thanks again...the restrictions between now and September are pointless.

This year we have a load of citizens vaccinated and more community immunity.

You have been saying from what I can make of your posts that restrictions were not needed since February.

How many citizens were vaccinated then ..... and don`t start on your community immunity again.
It`s been shown to you that anywhere that thought that was going to prevent the spread of this virus got their calculations wrong.

ArthurDayne · 21-05-2021 11:25AM

Graham wrote: »

'respiratory illness season'?

Which respiratory illness.

Are you talking about covid or are we back to the flu lockdown conspiracy theory?

Well...no Graham....that's not what I mean at all -- but I'm well used to the tendency on this thread to toss the eccentric / conspiracy theorist label at people pretty loosely.

I'm simply saying that, if we were to continue with the kind of cautious and risk averse approach we are seeing now, people might understandably be wary that if there is some resurgence of Covid cases in the autumn / winter then the "abundance of caution" might prevail -- and maybe there will be some forms of restrictions brought back, even if it isn't a full or prolonged lockdown.

I'd remind you that the government extended its Covid powers to later in the year, which is obviously a precautionary measure, but they still saw fit to take that measure after all.

charlie14 · 21-05-2021 11:27AM

Silentcorner wrote: »

Ya Graham, clearly this pace of relaxation of restrictions makes perfect sense to you, but some of us know the numbers from last summer, who recognize that we have most or all of our vulnerable vaccinated, who see that we have greater natural community immunity but still seem to be re opening in a extremely slow conservative manner when we know there isn't a chance of a viral surge until next winter.

It doesn't make sense Graham....

It doesn`t makes sense if you ignore what level of vaccination has worked when it comes to reopening in phases (U.K.) and what level did not (Germany and France) where handbrakes and reverse gear had to be applied.

Graham · 21-05-2021 11:29AM

ArthurDayne wrote: »

I'd remind you that the government extended its Covid powers to later in the year, which is obviously a precautionary measure, but they still saw fit to take that measure after all.

Sounds like a fairly sensible approach to me.

Certainly a lot more honest than something like the UK approach where the 'irreversible' may now have to be reversed.

FintanMcluskey · 21-05-2021 11:30AM

Graham wrote: »

'respiratory illness season'?

Which respiratory illness.

Are you talking about covid or are we back to the flu lockdown conspiracy theory?

No we are talking applying the metrics used to justify lockdown for the past 5 months, in the future.

Only god himself knows what nPHEt used to justify the lockdown, but if we assume it was hospital numbers, it’s not outrageous to suggest that lockdown could indeed be used in future to prevent hospital overcrowding

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.irishtimes.com/news/health/flu-kills-44-as-hundreds-wait-on-trolleys-in-hospitals-1.4142887%3fmode=amp

Last week 609 people were hospitalised with the illness, with the highest rates among those aged over 65 and children under five. A total of five influenza-associated deaths were reported to the Health Protection Surveillance Centre during the second week of January.

Over 600 hospitalised with the flu, including many children under 5, in one week back in late 2019/early 2020.

Certainly, that should have been cause for lockdown, or it should be in future if we assume hospital numbers are justifying lockdown.

About 150 in hospital now, including icu, and we can’t sit and get a sandwich in a cafe

Surely almost 4 times that number should justify at least some mitigation measures

Graham · 21-05-2021 11:33AM

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

No we are talking applying the metrics used to justify lockdown for the past 5 months, in the future.

Only god himself knows what nPHEt used to justify the lockdown, but if we assume it was hospital numbers, it’s not outrageous to suggest that lockdown could indeed be used in future to prevent hospital overcrowding

Why are you expecting hospitalisations to increase?

Edit: doesn't matter, I see you're off down the flu lockdown CT hole.

Baggly · 21-05-2021 12:27PM

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

No we are talking applying the metrics used to justify lockdown for the past 5 months, in the future.

Only god himself knows what nPHEt used to justify the lockdown, but if we assume it was hospital numbers, it’s not outrageous to suggest that lockdown could indeed be used in future to prevent hospital overcrowding

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.irishtimes.com/news/health/flu-kills-44-as-hundreds-wait-on-trolleys-in-hospitals-1.4142887%3fmode=amp

Over 600 hospitalised with the flu, including many children under 5, in one week back in late 2019/early 2020.

Certainly, that should have been cause for lockdown, or it should be in future if we assume hospital numbers are justifying lockdown.

About 150 in hospital now, including icu, and we can’t sit and get a sandwich in a cafe

Surely almost 4 times that number should justify at least some mitigation measures

Mod

This is all whataboutery and conspiracy theory stuff. This isnt the thread or forum for that. Stop it please.

Penfailed · 21-05-2021 12:48PM

Silentcorner wrote: »

Yip...the same posters who bought into the "new virus" scare mongering nonsense that was pushed on us last February.

And even though I am cautiously optimistic we will not see a level 5 lock down, you can literally name the posters who will be supporting what ever the government decides.

Literally name them then.

hynesie08 · 21-05-2021 01:03PM

Penfailed wrote: »

Literally name them then.

Literally doesn't mean literally when you're dealing in fantasy.....

Silentcorner · 21-05-2021 01:10PM

hynesie08 wrote: »

Literally doesn't mean literally when you're dealing in fantasy.....

What are you on about?

Anybody reading this thread knows who I am referring to...

There are a cohort on here who no matter what Nphet recommends, no matter how absurd or logically inconsistent the restrictions they will some how justify them and defend the government actions....and attempt to ridicule anybody who doesn't!!

Relaxation of Restrictions, Part XI *Read OP For Mod Warnings*

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Relaxation of Restrictions, Part XI Read OP For Mod Warnings