Scottish independence

breezy1985 · 09-05-2021 12:06am

pixelburp wrote: »

So Galloway and Dumfries remains Tory. The entire border still a unionist stronghold then. I mean sure, it makes sense when looking at the history of the location (*side eyes Berwick*) but you'd imagine that might be where resistance or agitation starts against another ref. Heck, to get completely wild, could those areas petition to join England were there a breakaway nation? Berwick 2.0, albeit minus the bloodshed.

England could maybe try Donbas the area

bob mcbob · 09-05-2021 12:08am

pixelburp wrote: »

But at the risk of being too lazy to Google, wasn't Hollyrood a Blairite labour initiative in the first place, presumably then including the election methodology?

The Scottish Parliament was setup to address the rise of the SNP. It was hoped that this would give an outlet to Scottish national feelings without threatening Westminster hegemony. so the methodology was designed to ensure that the SNP could never be a parliamentary majority.

Mr.Nice Guy · 09-05-2021 12:15am

Via Robert Peston's twitter:

Back to Scotland for a moment. I am told by a minister that the PM’s big plan to keep Scotland in the union is to love bomb it in the 18 months or so before Nicola Sturgeon introduces her referendum bill into the Scottish Parliament in late 2022 or early 2023.

That is consistent with my assumption that he knows he can’t stand in the way of a referendum without dishonouring the UK’s democratic heritage, and taking the whole UK to a very dark place. As Gavin Barwell argues, it is hard for a British PM to argue that parliamentary votes don’t matter, whether at Holyrood or at Westminster. His least risky strategy is probably to work out how to win a referendum, rather than looking at constitutional and legal devices to stop it.

The UK will not survive if its member countries are in the UK because of coercion rather than the choice of their citizens.

If this is true, it begs the question what these love bombs will consist of. I suspect it would amount to having Edinburgh and Glasgow host some diplomatic events, and an increase in flag-waving. Not sure the Tories are more imaginative than that.

Sam Russell · 09-05-2021 9:51am

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

Via Robert Peston's twitter:

If this is true, it begs the question what these love bombs will consist of. I suspect it would amount to having Edinburgh and Glasgow host some diplomatic events, and an increase in flag-waving. Not sure the Tories are more imaginative than that.

They tried Home Rule with Ireland in 1912 with the third Home Rule Bill, but then went back on it in 1914 before it was due to come into effect when they had a few army mutinies and gun running episodes in opposition to it.

They promised to give more autonomy to Scotland if they did not vote for independence in 1914 2014 (oops) but never implemented those reforms in any meaningful way. In fact they increased control by Westminster in the meantime.

So Johnson will be up in Glasgow or Edinburgh getting invited crowds of Tories to yelp and shout approval and wave flags (whichever flag the focus group thinks appropriate) and shout about a renewed programme of togetherness.

Meanwhile the bagpipes will be squealing and howling and the drums beating loudly for independence and they will get shriller and louder and louder.

There is only one answer that Scotland is looking for.

pixelburp · 09-05-2021 10:06am

I dunno. I think my history here shows support for independence but I'd be slow to think the path is secure either. Notwithstanding the odd idiotic bridge to NI, one underestimates Boris Johnson at ones peril. He has few supporters here but he is where he is by climbing over the bodies. Support for breaking away still only floats around the 50-55% depending on polling so hardly cut and dry. I'm sure SNP support remains stellar but to be fair, they run a tight ship compared with their neighbours. Yes 2014 started at a much lower point but CoVid changes the conversation. "Better Together" was aspirational puffery, here there's a not unreasonable argument of "now is not the time".

murphaph · 09-05-2021 10:30am

I don't see Independence as a given at all either. The polls and these election results are way too close to suggest a Yes majority is guaranteed. Sturgeon would, IMO be unwise to actually hold a referendum right now. The UK government is bankrolling the furlough scheme and taking the credit for the vaccine roll out and the impacts of Brexit are being masked by Covid for the time being.

Brexit probably helped or in normal times would have helped the case for independence but Covid has had the opposite effect. Sturgeon might be well advised to hold off a bit until Covid has been forgotten about and the impact of Brexit is really being felt.

Sam Russell · 09-05-2021 10:42am

pixelburp wrote: »

I dunno. I think my history here shows support for independence but I'd be slow to think the path is secure either. Notwithstanding the odd idiotic bridge to NI, one underestimates Boris Johnson at ones peril. He has few supporters here but he is where he is by climbing over the bodies. Support for breaking away still only floats around the 50-55% depending on polling so hardly cut and dry. I'm sure SNP support remains stellar but to be fair, they run a tight ship compared with their neighbours. Yes 2014 started at a much lower point but CoVid changes the conversation. "Better Together" was aspirational puffery, here there's a not unreasonable argument of "now is not the time".

But when is the time but now?

There are always events that will be quoted as more important than the issue they do not want to listen to and wish to avoid even discussing.

What currency will an independent Scotland use?
Answer - money is money - whatever currency is available, we will use. There are already Scottish printed notes, and they are backed pound for pound by Scottish banks with the BoE. We will be fine - we are known for being good with money.

If Scotland is independent, the Bank of England will not take account of Scotland's needs when setting monetary policy.
Answer - they do not do so at the moment, so what is the difference.

How long will Scotland use the GB£? Answer - for as long as it suits Scotland.

Listening to Tory politicians and BBC interviewers like Marr - it is like someone watching a painter and decorator as the work progresses and shouting out periodically - Look, you missed a bit! Pointless and wrong - say it when its finished. An independent Scotland will be fine - as long as it is Scottish people making the decisions about and for Scotland.

An Claidheamh · 09-05-2021 10:42am

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

Via Robert Peston's twitter:

If this is true, it begs the question what these love bombs will consist of. I suspect it would amount to having Edinburgh and Glasgow host some diplomatic events, and an increase in flag-waving. Not sure the Tories are more imaginative than that.

“The UK’s democratic heritage?”

They’ve never been democratic

That Peston guy, heard him talk about the North recently and Brexit in past, doesn’t appear to have a clue

At the end of the day, it is up to Scotland to take independence by the reins

As it a United Ireland, it is FFG who do not want to trigger it, it is not Westminster’s prerogative

Professor Moriarty · 09-05-2021 10:44am

pixelburp wrote: »

I dunno. I think my history here shows support for independence but I'd be slow to think the path is secure either. Notwithstanding the odd idiotic bridge to NI, one underestimates Boris Johnson at ones peril. He has few supporters here but he is where he is by climbing over the bodies. Support for breaking away still only floats around the 50-55% depending on polling so hardly cut and dry. I'm sure SNP support remains stellar but to be fair, they run a tight ship compared with their neighbours. Yes 2014 started at a much lower point but CoVid changes the conversation. "Better Together" was aspirational puffery, here there's a not unreasonable argument of "now is not the time".

The trend for 2021 polling shows an average lead of 2% for remain. This trend has increased very slowly but jumped in the past month with the last three polls showing an average 6% lead for remain.

Sam Russell · 09-05-2021 10:46am

An Claidheamh wrote: »

ce by the reins

As it a United Ireland, it is FFG who do not want to trigger it, it is not Westminster’s prerogative

Unfortunately it is solely in the prerogative of the UK Secretary of State's prerogative to trigger a border poll 'when he considers it likely to pass'

It is in the Good Friday Agreement. Read it, it is only 34 pages long.

Professor Moriarty · 09-05-2021 10:47am

An Claidheamh wrote: »

“The UK’s democratic heritage?”

They’ve never been democratic

That Peston guy, heard him talk about the North recently and Brexit in past, doesn’t appear to have a clue

At the end of the day, it is up to Scotland to take independence by the reins

As it a United Ireland, it is FFG who do not want to trigger it, it is not Westminster’s prerogative

What's an FFG?

Capt'n Midnight · 09-05-2021 11:29am

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

What's an FFG?

FF/FG necessity makes strange bedfellows.

Professor Moriarty · 09-05-2021 11:38am

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

FF/FG necessity makes strange bedfellows.

Oh right. In actual fact it should be FFGG as the Greens are also in government. So, speaking of bedfellows, do we have to go down the road of a SFIRA opposition? Or in the context of Scottish independence, SNPG and CLLD?

breezy1985 · 09-05-2021 12:04pm

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Oh right. In actual fact it should be FFGG as the Greens are also in government. So, speaking of bedfellows, do we have to go down the road of a SFIRA opposition? Or in the context of Scottish independence, SNPG and CLLD?

Don't forget SFDUP

pixelburp · 09-05-2021 12:09pm

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

The trend for 2021 polling shows an average lead of 2% for remain. This trend has increased very slowly but jumped in the past month with the last three polls showing an average 6% lead for remain.

Right; so the independence movement has tapered off that badly? that's quite a distance to make up after for a while looking like polling might hit the 60% support.

You'd wonder what tactic the SNP are going to take, if they're serious about this referendum. Brexit has changed the nature of the beast but it's still going to be a big ask of the Scottish people; you'd speculate what the SNP approach will be

Professor Moriarty · 09-05-2021 12:15pm

pixelburp wrote: »

Right; so the independence movement has tapered off that badly? that's quite a distance to make up after for a while looking like polling might hit the 60% support.

You'd wonder what tactic the SNP are going to take, if they're serious about this referendum. Brexit has changed the nature of the beast but it's still going to be a big ask of the Scottish people; you'd speculate what the SNP approach will be

It has according to the polls. The SNP need to drill down into why support has faded recently.

I think they have to be very cautious. The problem is that you can't have referendum after referendum. Especially if they lose it again. People will simply move on after a while ala Brexit. Plus the Tories will be banging the drum about the the cost of independence which will be significant. It might be better to hold off for a year or two in the hope that the Tories make a mess of the economy and Brexit realities hit hard.

briany · 09-05-2021 12:22pm

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

It has according to the polls. The SNP need to drill down into why support has faded recently.

I think they have to be very cautious. The problem is that you can't have referendum after referendum. Especially if they lose it again. People will simply move on after a while ala Brexit. Plus the Tories will be banging the drum about the the cost of independence which will be significant. It might be better to hold off for a year or two in the hope that the Tories make a mess of the economy and Brexit realities hit hard.

The argument against it at this point would be that it's best not to introduce a divisive in on top of economic malaise. Don't want to be hitting people with that double whammy.

Professor Moriarty · 09-05-2021 12:27pm

briany wrote: »

The argument against it at this point would be that it's best not to introduce a divisive in on top of economic malaise. Don't want to be hitting people with that double whammy.

Probably but it would also be a good tactical move. Let the vaccine/pandemic bounce fade away and let the Tory populists show themselves for what they are. Then point the finger and say how much better off an independent Scotland would be.

A Dub in Glasgo · 09-05-2021 12:41pm

The timeline for the 2014 referendum was

May 2011 - Election to Scottish Parliament
May 2011 to October 2012 - negotiations between Scottish govt and UK govt about a section 30 order
October 2012 - Edinburgh Agreement on Section 30 order
January 2013 - power transferred to Scottish parliament (temp section 30 order)
March 2013 - Referendum date announced (18 Sept 2014)
Dec 2013 - Scottish parliament passes referendum legislation and Royal assent given
Sept 2014 - Referendum

Talk of a referendum actually taking place this year or next are fanciful given the timeline above but that does not mean preparations should not take place now

FWIW, independence was polling on average about 30% in 2011-12 (incl undecided)

Sadler Peak · 09-05-2021 1:45pm

Has there been an economic study done on the impact of an independent Scotland on the Irish economy ?

BonnieSituation · 09-05-2021 1:48pm

pixelburp wrote: »

I dunno. I think my history here shows support for independence but I'd be slow to think the path is secure either. Notwithstanding the odd idiotic bridge to NI, one underestimates Boris Johnson at ones peril. He has few supporters here but he is where he is by climbing over the bodies. Support for breaking away still only floats around the 50-55% depending on polling so hardly cut and dry. I'm sure SNP support remains stellar but to be fair, they run a tight ship compared with their neighbours. Yes 2014 started at a much lower point but CoVid changes the conversation. "Better Together" was aspirational puffery, here there's a not unreasonable argument of "now is not the time".

For Unionism, now is never the time. Ever. Funny that.

BonnieSituation · 09-05-2021 1:51pm

pixelburp wrote: »

Right; so the independence movement has tapered off that badly? that's quite a distance to make up after for a while looking like polling might hit the 60% support.

You'd wonder what tactic the SNP are going to take, if they're serious about this referendum. Brexit has changed the nature of the beast but it's still going to be a big ask of the Scottish people; you'd speculate what the SNP approach will be

Tapered off badly?

You saw the results yesterday right?

There's gonna be no referendum til at least 2023. To think otherwise is bananas. There's a lot of water, political and otherwise, to flow under the bridge.

BonnieSituation · 09-05-2021 1:54pm

IRISHSPORTSGUY wrote: »

https://twitter.com/adamboultonSKY/status/1391161381546770446

Very few ways to spin that.

BonnieSituation · 09-05-2021 1:57pm

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

The timeline for the 2014 referendum was

May 2011 - Election to Scottish Parliament
May 2011 to October 2012 - negotiations between Scottish govt and UK govt about a section 30 order
October 2012 - Edinburgh Agreement on Section 30 order
January 2013 - power transferred to Scottish parliament (temp section 30 order)
March 2013 - Referendum date announced (18 Sept 2014)
Dec 2013 - Scottish parliament passes referendum legislation and Royal assent given
Sept 2014 - Referendum

Talk of a referendum actually taking place this year or next are fanciful given the timeline above but that does not mean preparations should not take place now

FWIW, independence was polling on average about 30% in 2011-12 (incl undecided)

That's why it's not surprising to see Unionists and their ilk coming up with "they didn't get a majority so no referendum" narrative this weekend. It's so transparent. If the campaign followed the same trajectory as the last one, independence would win out at a canter. Big "if".

pixelburp · 09-05-2021 2:01pm

BonnieSituation wrote: »

Tapered off badly?

You saw the results yesterday right?

There's gonna be no referendum til at least 2023. To think otherwise is bananas. There's a lot of water, political and otherwise, to flow under the bridge.

Don't get salty; I was responding to the other post indicating that polling for independence has dropped of late. And for me, that's the only true bellwether for independence right now. Everything else is contextual IMO, the Indy polls cut to the point. And a 6% swing back is significant after sustained increase.

The SNP might have independence baked into its DNA but it is still a government in power with a specifically Scots focus. And a vaguely left leaning one at that IIRC; you don't need to be 100% behind independence to vote SNP if they're doing a "good job" in general. Their handling of CoVid seems much steadier than London, and At the risk of bias or reduction they seem the most principled political party in the UK ATM. Changes like the free supply of sanitary products in public female bathrooms as an example of truly transformative ideas.

As you said, it'll be 2 or 3 years before a new referendum comes along anyway so you'd imagine Sturgeon is smart enough to push it to the background a little, let the economic recovery from CoVid be seen to be driven by the SNP (which is probably the reason for Johnson's"love bomb" tactic; he knows Sturgeon is a clear rival [superior?]).

A Dub in Glasgo · 09-05-2021 2:21pm

Parliamentary terms in Scotland are 4 years so the next election is in 2025. You will have noted that the 2014 referendum took place 3 years and 4 months into the parlamentay term and that was the Scottish govt immediately putting plans in place after the 2011 election. They do not just happen

BonnieSituation · 09-05-2021 2:27pm

pixelburp wrote: »

Don't get salty; I was responding to the other post indicating that polling for independence has dropped of late. And for me, that's the only true bellwether for independence right now. Everything else is contextual IMO, the Indy polls cut to the point. And a 6% swing back is significant after sustained increase.

The SNP might have independence baked into its DNA but it is still a government in power with a specifically Scots focus. And a vaguely left leaning one at that IIRC; you don't need to be 100% behind independence to vote SNP if they're doing a "good job" in general. Their handling of CoVid seems much steadier than London, and At the risk of bias or reduction they seem the most principled political party in the UK ATM. Changes like the free supply of sanitary products in public female bathrooms as an example of truly transformative ideas.

As you said, it'll be 2 or 3 years before a new referendum comes along anyway so you'd imagine Sturgeon is smart enough to push it to the background a little, let the economic recovery from CoVid be seen to be driven by the SNP (which is probably the reason for Johnson's"love bomb" tactic; he knows Sturgeon is a clear rival [superior?]).

I'm not being salty. This just all reads as typical Unionist goal post shifting. ( know you're not a Unionist. But it's the sort of talk you hear repeatedly)

How opinion polls are more indicative of the true state of independence than an election that has delivered a pro independence majority yet again, just yesterday, is beyond me.

I'll concede that there's bound to be a few bizarro voters out there that would vote SNP but against independence, but you can't extrapolate that notion very far. Independence is literally the SNP's raison d'être. To ignore their mandate on foot of a couple of wingnuts is ridiculous.

Likewise, there's a large portion of Labour voters out there who are pro-independence, surely that more than cancels out your hypothetical SNP supporters? Or are we not allowed do that because it doesn't fit with the Unionist narrative?

Mr.Nice Guy · 09-05-2021 2:30pm

Sturgeon has said she doesn't want a referendum until Covid ceases to be the main priority. She reiterated that on Marr's programme today:

“We stood on a manifesto commitment to firstly – and this is what I actually agree with much of what Michael Gove was saying – to continue to steer the country through the Covid pandemic,” she added.

“If we get to that point [of a court challenge] then Scotland will be in a situation where it is being told that it has no democratic route to become an independent country … it would be such a grave and serious and undemocratic situation that I don’t believe on either side anybody wants it to get to that point.”

She emphasised that she was not proposing a referendum “in this instant right now”. Throughout the campaign, Sturgeon said her government would only do so once “once the Covid crisis has passed”.

Asked by Marr whether she was going to be the first minister to deliver independence, Sturgeon replied: “I hope so. I’ve just won a landslide election and another five-year term as first minister. I’ve got the energy, the appetite, to get on with the job, but firstly to get us through Covid, that is my priority.”

It doesn't look like she has an appetite for a referendum this year, and I'd agree with that. I do think, however, that Johnson in Downing Street is a gift to the pro-indy movement, so you probably don't want to wait too long in case he has sunk his own support levels with some new scandal by that stage and either steps down or is pushed.

2022 or 2023 is the time to have it imo. You need a period of time to discuss the issues and campaign, so perhaps she will set a date later this year if society is starting to open up.

BonnieSituation · 09-05-2021 2:35pm

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

Sturgeon has said she doesn't want a referendum until Covid ceases to be the main priority. She reiterated that on Marr's programme today:

It doesn't look like she has an appetite for a referendum this year, and I'd agree with that. I do think, however, that Johnson in Downing Street is a gift to the pro-indy movement, so you probably don't want to wait too long in case he has sunk his own support levels with some new scandal by that stage and either steps down or is pushed.

2022 or 2023 is the time to have it imo. You need a period of time to discuss the issues and campaign, so perhaps she will set a date later this year if society is starting to open up.

Again, that she has to reiterate the bleeding obvious is solely down to the Unionist media being so awful.

Unionists: "Now is not the time"

SNP: "But I never said it was going to be tomorrow!"

Unionists: "You see, the problem with Scottish Nationalists is that they want to have another divisive referendum..."

And so on...

Also, the use of "Scottish Nationalists" is just a way to stoke tension. It's infuriating.

An Claidheamh · 09-05-2021 2:40pm

Sam Russell wrote: »

Unfortunately it is solely in the prerogative of the UK Secretary of State's prerogative to trigger a border poll 'when he considers it likely to pass'

It is in the Good Friday Agreement. Read it, it is only 34 pages long.

True but in reality if the Irish government said they wanted one, UK would have no choice, same if Stormont said they wanted one

Scottish independence

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