Scottish independence

Furze99

Looks like the prospect of Scottish Independence is ebbing away again.

L1011

As long as there isn't a sudden lurch towards thinking Salmond is the answer again...

Water John

I think everyone accepts if there is any wrong doing, it will damage the SNP. Depends then how brittle the numbers for indy are. Starmer certainly can negate it by offering true devolution to all four parts of the Union. And LB winning 15/20 seats in Scotland at the next GE is the prize.

A Dub in Glasgo

For those wondering about the background to all this, have a read at this blog two years ago

https://wingsoverscotland.com/the-great-indyref-swindle/

hotmail.com

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120445111#Comment_120445111

It ebbed away in 2014.

hotmail.com

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120445234#Comment_120445234

Not a chance Labour will do a deal with the SNP.

Labour are on course for a comfortable majority and won't need any alliances or support.

tinytobe

Sturgeon and the SNP have been taking the Scottish voter for a ride for many decades, not only on fake independence dreams but also on domestic matters.

Strazdas

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120445234#Comment_120445234

I wouldn't be so sure. Would have been much worse if Sturgeon's house had been raided while she was still First Minister - that would definitely have been hugely embarrassing to the SNP. No evidence at all that the party or movement itself was / is corrupt.

Sam Russell

I would have thought digging in the garden usually means looking for a dead body - literally.

Who but an idiot would bury money in their own garden - surely a bit of ingenuity would launder the stashed ill-gotten loot. Bury it if you must, but in a lonely remote location far from any link to the perpetrator.

Is this a diversion from Johnson's travails?

Water John

LB need to win 15/20 seats in Scotland at the next GE, otherwise getting a majority looks a lot less likely. What I'm saying is Starmer does that by offering more devolved powers to the regions, one being Scotland.

Sam Russell

Labour (and Starmer) are definitely heavily against Scottish independence.

Labour lost 40 seats in Scotland and they want them back.

A Dub in Glasgo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120445261#Comment_120445261

Why do you think Sturgeon sudden and surprising resignation happened? Coupled with the change in SNP standing rules to truncate the new leaderhip election duration. The top of the SNP are corrupt

A Dub in Glasgo

The police were not digging up the garden

https://twitter.com/PeterAdamSmith/status/1643675454979670016

Strazdas

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120445312#Comment_120445312

I've no doubt that Sturgeon's resignation was connected to the forthcoming police raid. But is there any evidence that a large number of people were involved in dodgy stuff or was it just a select handful at executive level?

Oscar_Madison

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120445237#Comment_120445237

I mean it’s getting to “only resting in my account” standards of farce. People have been talking about this lump sum now for a few years- it wasn’t yesterday it went “missing” or as the SNP say, “intertwined in other accounts” - it was either “ringfenced” and “frozen” or it wasn’t- it would be easy to produce if it was, but it hasn’t been, so it isn’t 😀

Oscar_Madison

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120445362#Comment_120445362

I’m not convinced- police were filmed taking photographs outside in the garden - you don’t do that in a standard corporate fraud type search exercise where you’d remove documents, laptops etc in evidence bags. And what’s with all of the tents on the lawn? Sorry no, there’s more to it than that. Whether they’re digging up the lawn who knows but those tents are a major overkill for a house search don’t you think?

A Dub in Glasgo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120445553#Comment_120445553

They are massively overkill and I think there were 4 or possibly 5 large police vans/minibuses on the street. As far as I can tell there are no tents in the back garden and that is where people think they have been digging up as that is where the police were spotted with shovels (from the shed)

Sam Russell

Your man is released without charge, according to Sky News.

Strazdas

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120445811#Comment_120445811

But not in the clear apparently - it seems to be one of these released without charge 'for the moment' type things.

Oscar_Madison

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120446204#Comment_120446204

They would have put a number of questions to him and also any evidence they may have- quite possibly he gave a “no comment” interview. It’s then up to the crown prosecution service what happens next- as they are likely still gathering evidence it will be a number of weeks or months most likely before we’ll hear if any charges are to be brought as a result of this investigation

Francis McM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120445362#Comment_120445362

Wonder why the leaders of independence movements, from Mugabe to you know who, are often accused of having skeletons in the closet.

Water John

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120446842#Comment_120446842

Never heard anything like that about Michael Collins.

Francis McM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120447772#Comment_120447772

To some he was a freedom fighter, to others a terrorist.  Plenty of empty places around dinner tables because of him. History is written by the victors though.

rock22

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120448032#Comment_120448032

Francis, is there any topic you will not get a dig in at the IRA? This is the Scottish Independence thread.

At this stage, I believe you are simply trolling.

Francis McM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120448401#Comment_120448401

Rubbish. We were talking about the husband of Sturgeon being arrested and his garden dug up. I never mentioned Ireland or the IRA. It was Water John who mentioned Michael Collins.

A Dub in Glasgo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120448462#Comment_120448462

The garden was not dug up

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120445374#Comment_120445374

I've no doubt that Sturgeon's resignation was connected to the forthcoming police raid.

Doesn't make much sense to be honest.

If they knew there was going to be a police raid, they'd have cleansed the place surely?

I'd think it's as likely there are political shennangins going on here, somebody has made an accusation safe in the knowledge it will be capitalised on by the 'there's no smoke without fire' crew.

I'm not claiming this is what happened, I could be totally wrong, but caution should be observed here. Political shennanigins and political policing are a thing after all.

Water John

Ah now, Murrell resigned suddenly. This investigation has been ongoing. Even so, the raids would not have been expected probably.

Really, having the two major roles occupied by members of the one family, is never a good idea. Neil Kinnock resigned his EU job because his wife Gladys got another position.

Francis McM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120449358#Comment_120449358

It is reported in many places on the media that it was.

https://gript.ie/police-dig-up-nicola-sturgeons-garden-as-husband-arrested/

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11942651/Police-seen-holding-shovels-search-Nicola-Sturgeons-garden.html

https://www.stokesentinel.co.uk/news/uk-world-news/police-digging-nicola-sturgeons-back-8327985

https://www.channel4.com/news/what-next-for-the-snp-as-nicola-sturgeons-husband-is-arrested

I suppose the large tent in the garden and the spades the police were pictured with was for something else?

Strazdas

It should be noted though that even Richard Littlejohn - a right wing, Brexity type and Sturgeon critic - says he has serious misgivings about the raid on the house and feels it was a totally over the top operation by the Scottish police:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-11947899/RICHARD-LITTLEJOHN-appalled-McPlods-raid-Wee-Burney.html

Francis McM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120451558#Comment_120451558

Maybe the police know or suspect something he does not?

Strazdas

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120451639#Comment_120451639

I guess we'll know in due course. But if it turns out they found little of note at the premises, there may be questions as to why the search operation was so big - police raids on houses investigating financial fraud don't normally feature dozens of officers, diggers in the garden etc.

Sam Russell

Didn't Cliff Richard get an unwelcome visit from the plods, with the BBC in tow?

How did that end?

Water John

Seems Douglas Ross would prefer Lb in Westminister and a weakened SNP:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/apr/10/scottish-tories-accused-trying-revive-anti-independence-coalition-ian-blackford

hotmail.com

6 auditors for the SNP resigned 6 months ago, their new First Minster has been forced to admit.

Bizarre goings on in the SNP.

A Dub in Glasgo

Incompetence or corruption?

https://twitter.com/WingsScotland/status/1646103197163958274

serfboard

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120468925#Comment_120468925

"out-of-touch careerists and activists pursuing issues which the wider public regard as irrelevant to their daily lives"

One could describe the UK Labour party or the US Democrats in the same fashion - and for the same reason. These are parties dominated by well-off college graduates who don't give a shít about bread and butter issues because they are unaffected. It's a flaw that Republicans/Tories exploit successfully by painting the decision makers in these parties as out-of-touch elitists, and by promising the less well off that the right will look after them - when in reality the likes of Rees Mogg despise them.

Peregrinus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120468925#Comment_120468925

Bit of a false dichotomy, there, since incompetence and corruption can go hand-in-hand. Indeed, they often do. Case in point right now — the Tories.

While there is much that separates the Tories and the SNP there is one thing they have in common — too long in government. The Tories have been in office continuall since 2010; the SNP since 20007. This isn't healthy.

Parties that have been too long in office run out of ideas and energy. Also, it's in the nature of politics to attract careerists, opportunists and people on the make. The more successful a party is perceived to be, the more of these it attracts. The combination of these factors mean that, when a party is too long in office, the quality of government it provides starts to decline, and in fact to decline precipitously. Hence, incompetence and corruption. This phenomenon is unrelated to ideology; it affects both progressive and conservative parties.

Functional democracies need regular changes of government. Both Edinburgh and Westminster are exemplifying that right now.

Water John

If a party wants to implement a radical change, then 2 terms in Govn't should achieve most of that. Thus 7/8 years is the maximum. Multiple coalition situations as in many European countries might have a different dynamic.

Peregrinus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120471697#Comment_120471697

A party which has governed well for two terms is quite likely to be returned for a third by a grateful electorate, but often the quality of governance in the third term will start to slip (and things tend to go to hell altogether in the fourth term, if there is one).

Your point about political renewal in European countries is a good one. I think the ways in which political renewal is acheived in those countries is not just constantly shifting coalitions (which can facilitate a kind of "rolling renewal") but also changing parties. One of the things that characterises UK (and to some extent Irish) politics is the extraordinary longevity of political parties. The Conservatives have been one of the two dominant political parties in the UK pretty much since the UK became a semi-democracy in the late nineteenth century; the Labour party are relative newcomers but have been the other dominant party for a century. This is become the UK electoral system strongly entrenches the established parties, regardless of how dysfunctional they may become.

Few other European democracies have dominant parties which endure for so long. Parties merge, or split, or are refounded, or are superseded, with relative frequency. For example, if we look at the top four parties in the French National Assembly, they were founded in 2016 (La République En Marche), 1972 (Rassemblement National, founded as Front National), 2016 (La France Insoumise) and 2002 (Les Républicains, founded as Union pour un mouvement populaire). Of course they all had predecessor parties and their first leaders and members of parliament came from those parties, but the foundation of new parties still allows for the injection of new ideas and (just as important) the abandonment of old ones.

Furze99

How long will it take the SNP and Independence movement to recover lost ground?

Peregrinus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120471963#Comment_120471963

Impossible to say at this point; we'll need to see what emerges over the next weeks and months.

To be honest, perhaps the best thing that could happen to the SNP would be to be ejected from office fairly quickly, so that they can have a term in opposition which would give them an opportunity to address some of their internal problems, acknowledge errors, get rid of some undesirable elements, etc. They could then make a fist of presenting themselves as a renewed party at the following Scottish election.

But that's unlikely. The next election isn't due until 2026, so we are looking at another three years of the SNP trying to govern while being subjected to long-drawn out investigations, quite possibly prosecutions, and a lot of relentless scrutiny, all of which will require them to be very defensive. That won't improve the quality of their governance, and it is not the ideal climate in which do the kind of self-overhaul that they could do in opposition. After three years of that they could be looking like a very stale offering.

Fr Tod Umptious

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120472051#Comment_120472051

It will be a long time before anyone can seriously suggest a new indyref.

So by the time they do it will be a generation on from 2014.

serfboard

It was revealed recently that the SNP doesn't currently have auditors - that was bad enough but then it emerged that the Auditors had resigned last September. When asked about this, Humza Yousaf said that:

he had not been aware of the issue until he became leader, adding that "it would have been helpful to have known beforehand" and that "there should have been more transparency around the party finances".

Similarly, when asked about the motorhome that the party bought, he said that he had found out about it:

"Shortly after I became leader of the party".

So either Nicola Sturgeon is after leaving him the biggest pile of dung to deal with, or his claims of ignorance beggar belief.

Christy42

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120471963#Comment_120471963

Independence is tough to say. Snp I would expect pretty quickly. Certainly there is a lot that needs investigating but also there needs to be a viable alternative to them that isn't just funnel more economic growth to London.

Guildenstern

Not much media comment here either re the SNP's recent woes. Sturgeon was always given something close to a reverential status by us, although I always thought that was more to do with an anti English stance. The eviction ban and now the Joe show has overshadowed all else over the last couple of weeks though.

I agree wholeheartedly with the comments re political parties being in power too long and when they are the careerists and types it attracts. One could argue we've never really had that radical departure of politics between FF or FG across the years, hence also attracting similar types.

The SNP were a single issue party who rose in support very quickly over the last 20 years. Once in power though, they became the establishment and were viewed not solely as the part of future independence for Scotland, but the government whose role it is to govern, day to day, and all the issues that entails.

Before this story broke last week, there seemed to be enough friction in the party, as was espoused during the leadership campaign. One cannot but assume this is damaging enough to knock support for independence which was already beginning to wane, or if not wane, just was not showing much of an increase in support.

A lesson also for SF when they land in power here.

bob mcbob

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120471571#Comment_120471571

I think this is an interesting perspective but for me a bit naive.

What is the difference between authoritarian regimes like Russia and democracies - nothing more than percentages. Putin has maybe 30% bought into his regime and the democracries have maybe 60% bought into it. So you talk about incompetence and corruption but what is really meant is that democracies are a bit better than authoritarian regimes but only if you do not let the ruling party get settled. If you do no difference.

Sam Russell

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120479655#Comment_120479655

No, just no.

Democracies are based on the voice of the people. I know that is trite but it is the basis that the whole system is built. Now it is not uncommon for such systems to go off the rails, and they often do, but many return to stability.

Go back a few centuries, when democracy was just autocracies where power was held by a small coterie of wealthy families. That gradually morphed into democracy as the industrial revolution spread wealth to the nouveau riche.

These new powerful individual wanted a share of the action and they made sure they got it. However, their wealth and power depended on those workers who did the generation of the wealth and those workers realised that in unity was strength, and so the Labour movement evolved.

Once the genie was out of the bottle, it was not going back. The ancienne regime no longer has any power, and all power is with the people (in a true democracy).

Now Putin rules by fear and repression, as does Xi Jinping, with the ability both have for 'disappearing' any opposition. That is the style of all these despots.

It is not a question of percentages. It necessary for a depot to use the spectre of fear, naked violence and repression.

bob mcbob

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120480152#Comment_120480152

Really!

Approx 13.4M people in the UK live in poverty (that is 20% of the population). Would these people swap this for a more comfortable life in an autocratic state - well I cannot speak for them but I think I have an idea. 60% of the population are struggling economically - I wonder how many of these chose this through their "voice".

https://www.bigissue.com/news/social-justice/uk-poverty-the-facts-figures-effects-solutions-cost-living-crisis/

With regards to democracy - the 5 key characteristics are -

• Elected Representative: The people choose their representatives to serve as their leaders. Hence, people are entitled to take part in making decisions.
• Independent Judiciary: Conflicts are settled more democratically because the court is independent of the government.
• Civil Liberties: People can access civil freedoms like freedom of speech and expression.
• Organized Opposition Party: A well-organized opposition party is crucial to democracy because it serves as a check on the executive branch.
• Rule of Law: In a democracy, the rule of law is upheld, and everyone is subject to the law. In the eyes of the law, the law is supreme, and all citizens are treated equally.

Putin Russia, where.as you said fear and repression rule, meet 3 or 4 of the characteristics of a democratic state. No it is not democracy good (white) and autocracies bad (black). All you really have are different shades of grey, with the difference between democracies and autocracies merely a question of scale.

Sam Russell

@bob mcbob This autocracy vs democracy has nothing to do with Scottish Independence as although FPTP is not that democratic, it is a very long way from autocracy.

I would say Putin's Russia fails on all counts in your tests for democracy. Holding up an A4 white sheet of paper gets the person arrested and jailed. Likewise anyone using 'war' to describe the 'special military operation'.

It is not just percentages.