pixelburp wrote: » So Galloway and Dumfries remains Tory. The entire border still a unionist stronghold then. I mean sure, it makes sense when looking at the history of the location (*side eyes Berwick*) but you'd imagine that might be where resistance or agitation starts against another ref. Heck, to get completely wild, could those areas petition to join England were there a breakaway nation? Berwick 2.0, albeit minus the bloodshed.
pixelburp wrote: » But at the risk of being too lazy to Google, wasn't Hollyrood a Blairite labour initiative in the first place, presumably then including the election methodology?
Back to Scotland for a moment. I am told by a minister that the PM’s big plan to keep Scotland in the union is to love bomb it in the 18 months or so before Nicola Sturgeon introduces her referendum bill into the Scottish Parliament in late 2022 or early 2023. That is consistent with my assumption that he knows he can’t stand in the way of a referendum without dishonouring the UK’s democratic heritage, and taking the whole UK to a very dark place. As Gavin Barwell argues, it is hard for a British PM to argue that parliamentary votes don’t matter, whether at Holyrood or at Westminster. His least risky strategy is probably to work out how to win a referendum, rather than looking at constitutional and legal devices to stop it. The UK will not survive if its member countries are in the UK because of coercion rather than the choice of their citizens.
Mr.Nice Guy wrote: » Via Robert Peston's twitter: If this is true, it begs the question what these love bombs will consist of. I suspect it would amount to having Edinburgh and Glasgow host some diplomatic events, and an increase in flag-waving. Not sure the Tories are more imaginative than that.
pixelburp wrote: » I dunno. I think my history here shows support for independence but I'd be slow to think the path is secure either. Notwithstanding the odd idiotic bridge to NI, one underestimates Boris Johnson at ones peril. He has few supporters here but he is where he is by climbing over the bodies. Support for breaking away still only floats around the 50-55% depending on polling so hardly cut and dry. I'm sure SNP support remains stellar but to be fair, they run a tight ship compared with their neighbours. Yes 2014 started at a much lower point but CoVid changes the conversation. "Better Together" was aspirational puffery, here there's a not unreasonable argument of "now is not the time".
An Claidheamh wrote: » ce by the reins As it a United Ireland, it is FFG who do not want to trigger it, it is not Westminster’s prerogative
An Claidheamh wrote: » “The UK’s democratic heritage?” They’ve never been democratic That Peston guy, heard him talk about the North recently and Brexit in past, doesn’t appear to have a clue At the end of the day, it is up to Scotland to take independence by the reins As it a United Ireland, it is FFG who do not want to trigger it, it is not Westminster’s prerogative
Professor Moriarty wrote: » What's an FFG?
Capt'n Midnight wrote: » FF/FG necessity makes strange bedfellows.
Professor Moriarty wrote: » Oh right. In actual fact it should be FFGG as the Greens are also in government. So, speaking of bedfellows, do we have to go down the road of a SFIRA opposition? Or in the context of Scottish independence, SNPG and CLLD?
Professor Moriarty wrote: » The trend for 2021 polling shows an average lead of 2% for remain. This trend has increased very slowly but jumped in the past month with the last three polls showing an average 6% lead for remain.
pixelburp wrote: » Right; so the independence movement has tapered off that badly? that's quite a distance to make up after for a while looking like polling might hit the 60% support. You'd wonder what tactic the SNP are going to take, if they're serious about this referendum. Brexit has changed the nature of the beast but it's still going to be a big ask of the Scottish people; you'd speculate what the SNP approach will be
Professor Moriarty wrote: » It has according to the polls. The SNP need to drill down into why support has faded recently. I think they have to be very cautious. The problem is that you can't have referendum after referendum. Especially if they lose it again. People will simply move on after a while ala Brexit. Plus the Tories will be banging the drum about the the cost of independence which will be significant. It might be better to hold off for a year or two in the hope that the Tories make a mess of the economy and Brexit realities hit hard.
briany wrote: » The argument against it at this point would be that it's best not to introduce a divisive in on top of economic malaise. Don't want to be hitting people with that double whammy.
IRISHSPORTSGUY wrote: » https://twitter.com/adamboultonSKY/status/1391161381546770446
A Dub in Glasgo wrote: » The timeline for the 2014 referendum was May 2011 - Election to Scottish Parliament May 2011 to October 2012 - negotiations between Scottish govt and UK govt about a section 30 order October 2012 - Edinburgh Agreement on Section 30 order January 2013 - power transferred to Scottish parliament (temp section 30 order) March 2013 - Referendum date announced (18 Sept 2014) Dec 2013 - Scottish parliament passes referendum legislation and Royal assent given Sept 2014 - Referendum Talk of a referendum actually taking place this year or next are fanciful given the timeline above but that does not mean preparations should not take place now FWIW, independence was polling on average about 30% in 2011-12 (incl undecided)
BonnieSituation wrote: » Tapered off badly? You saw the results yesterday right? There's gonna be no referendum til at least 2023. To think otherwise is bananas. There's a lot of water, political and otherwise, to flow under the bridge.
pixelburp wrote: » Don't get salty; I was responding to the other post indicating that polling for independence has dropped of late. And for me, that's the only true bellwether for independence right now. Everything else is contextual IMO, the Indy polls cut to the point. And a 6% swing back is significant after sustained increase. The SNP might have independence baked into its DNA but it is still a government in power with a specifically Scots focus. And a vaguely left leaning one at that IIRC; you don't need to be 100% behind independence to vote SNP if they're doing a "good job" in general. Their handling of CoVid seems much steadier than London, and At the risk of bias or reduction they seem the most principled political party in the UK ATM. Changes like the free supply of sanitary products in public female bathrooms as an example of truly transformative ideas. As you said, it'll be 2 or 3 years before a new referendum comes along anyway so you'd imagine Sturgeon is smart enough to push it to the background a little, let the economic recovery from CoVid be seen to be driven by the SNP (which is probably the reason for Johnson's"love bomb" tactic; he knows Sturgeon is a clear rival [superior?]).
“We stood on a manifesto commitment to firstly – and this is what I actually agree with much of what Michael Gove was saying – to continue to steer the country through the Covid pandemic,” she added. “If we get to that point [of a court challenge] then Scotland will be in a situation where it is being told that it has no democratic route to become an independent country … it would be such a grave and serious and undemocratic situation that I don’t believe on either side anybody wants it to get to that point.” She emphasised that she was not proposing a referendum “in this instant right now”. Throughout the campaign, Sturgeon said her government would only do so once “once the Covid crisis has passed”. Asked by Marr whether she was going to be the first minister to deliver independence, Sturgeon replied: “I hope so. I’ve just won a landslide election and another five-year term as first minister. I’ve got the energy, the appetite, to get on with the job, but firstly to get us through Covid, that is my priority.”
Mr.Nice Guy wrote: » Sturgeon has said she doesn't want a referendum until Covid ceases to be the main priority. She reiterated that on Marr's programme today: It doesn't look like she has an appetite for a referendum this year, and I'd agree with that. I do think, however, that Johnson in Downing Street is a gift to the pro-indy movement, so you probably don't want to wait too long in case he has sunk his own support levels with some new scandal by that stage and either steps down or is pushed. 2022 or 2023 is the time to have it imo. You need a period of time to discuss the issues and campaign, so perhaps she will set a date later this year if society is starting to open up.
Sam Russell wrote: » Unfortunately it is solely in the prerogative of the UK Secretary of State's prerogative to trigger a border poll 'when he considers it likely to pass' It is in the Good Friday Agreement. Read it, it is only 34 pages long.
