Professor Moriarty wrote: » Do you know the purpose of his visit?
hotmail.com wrote: » Biden is visiting UK in his first overseas visit. It's not an accident he chose that. Whilst many Americans sympathetic to Irish causes, their priority is and always has been to Britain.
View wrote: » No one at British cabinet level is going to make a decision because the Irish government want them to do so. And the US isn’t going to upset a major NATO ally over something as trivial as NI.
An Claidheamh wrote: » They probably wouldn't be too bothered by anything Martin would say However, If the Irish govt made it clear they wanted a poll, Britain could not withstand pressure from US or indeed threat of all Ireland Republican violence (which would essentially be an invitation) Brexit showed they are not willing to take on any type of IRA
breezy1985 wrote: » Thats pure nonsense. No UK government is going to care about us asking.
BonnieSituation wrote: » But that's exactly how it will play out. The SNP won't be touching a referendum this side of 2023.
eire4 wrote: » AS the pandemic hopefully fades towards the end of this year and hopefully we are back to normal in 2022 I think we will start to see the full negative effects of brexit come into play with no pandemic to mitigate or hide them. IMHO it would make sense for the SNP to let this happen and let the Tories keep on saying No No No a la Thatcher and all that together would put the SNP in strong position to not just hold the independence referendum but also win it.
briany wrote: » I don't know if this would be a particularly compelling argument for Scottish independence. It's asking voters to make a permanent decision based on something temporary, i.e. the current iteration of the UK government. For this argument to be successful, you would have to convince enough voters that the economic and political downward slide would be a painful and chronic one.
A Dub in Glasgo wrote: » The timeline for the 2014 referendum was May 2011 - Election to Scottish Parliament May 2011 to October 2012 - negotiations between Scottish govt and UK govt about a section 30 order October 2012 - Edinburgh Agreement on Section 30 order January 2013 - power transferred to Scottish parliament (temp section 30 order) March 2013 - Referendum date announced (18 Sept 2014) Dec 2013 - Scottish parliament passes referendum legislation and Royal assent given Sept 2014 - Referendum Talk of a referendum actually taking place this year or next are fanciful given the timeline above but that does not mean preparations should not take place now FWIW, independence was polling on average about 30% in 2011-12 (incl undecided)
Professor Moriarty wrote: » Probably but it would also be a good tactical move. Let the vaccine/pandemic bounce fade away and let the Tory populists show themselves for what they are. Then point the finger and say how much better off an independent Scotland would be.
An Claidheamh wrote: » True but in reality if the Irish government said they wanted one, UK would have no choice, same if Stormont said they wanted one
Sam Russell wrote: » Unfortunately it is solely in the prerogative of the UK Secretary of State's prerogative to trigger a border poll 'when he considers it likely to pass' It is in the Good Friday Agreement. Read it, it is only 34 pages long.
Mr.Nice Guy wrote: » Sturgeon has said she doesn't want a referendum until Covid ceases to be the main priority. She reiterated that on Marr's programme today: It doesn't look like she has an appetite for a referendum this year, and I'd agree with that. I do think, however, that Johnson in Downing Street is a gift to the pro-indy movement, so you probably don't want to wait too long in case he has sunk his own support levels with some new scandal by that stage and either steps down or is pushed. 2022 or 2023 is the time to have it imo. You need a period of time to discuss the issues and campaign, so perhaps she will set a date later this year if society is starting to open up.
“We stood on a manifesto commitment to firstly – and this is what I actually agree with much of what Michael Gove was saying – to continue to steer the country through the Covid pandemic,” she added. “If we get to that point [of a court challenge] then Scotland will be in a situation where it is being told that it has no democratic route to become an independent country … it would be such a grave and serious and undemocratic situation that I don’t believe on either side anybody wants it to get to that point.” She emphasised that she was not proposing a referendum “in this instant right now”. Throughout the campaign, Sturgeon said her government would only do so once “once the Covid crisis has passed”. Asked by Marr whether she was going to be the first minister to deliver independence, Sturgeon replied: “I hope so. I’ve just won a landslide election and another five-year term as first minister. I’ve got the energy, the appetite, to get on with the job, but firstly to get us through Covid, that is my priority.”
pixelburp wrote: » Don't get salty; I was responding to the other post indicating that polling for independence has dropped of late. And for me, that's the only true bellwether for independence right now. Everything else is contextual IMO, the Indy polls cut to the point. And a 6% swing back is significant after sustained increase. The SNP might have independence baked into its DNA but it is still a government in power with a specifically Scots focus. And a vaguely left leaning one at that IIRC; you don't need to be 100% behind independence to vote SNP if they're doing a "good job" in general. Their handling of CoVid seems much steadier than London, and At the risk of bias or reduction they seem the most principled political party in the UK ATM. Changes like the free supply of sanitary products in public female bathrooms as an example of truly transformative ideas. As you said, it'll be 2 or 3 years before a new referendum comes along anyway so you'd imagine Sturgeon is smart enough to push it to the background a little, let the economic recovery from CoVid be seen to be driven by the SNP (which is probably the reason for Johnson's"love bomb" tactic; he knows Sturgeon is a clear rival [superior?]).
BonnieSituation wrote: » Tapered off badly? You saw the results yesterday right? There's gonna be no referendum til at least 2023. To think otherwise is bananas. There's a lot of water, political and otherwise, to flow under the bridge.
IRISHSPORTSGUY wrote: » https://twitter.com/adamboultonSKY/status/1391161381546770446
pixelburp wrote: » Right; so the independence movement has tapered off that badly? that's quite a distance to make up after for a while looking like polling might hit the 60% support. You'd wonder what tactic the SNP are going to take, if they're serious about this referendum. Brexit has changed the nature of the beast but it's still going to be a big ask of the Scottish people; you'd speculate what the SNP approach will be
pixelburp wrote: » I dunno. I think my history here shows support for independence but I'd be slow to think the path is secure either. Notwithstanding the odd idiotic bridge to NI, one underestimates Boris Johnson at ones peril. He has few supporters here but he is where he is by climbing over the bodies. Support for breaking away still only floats around the 50-55% depending on polling so hardly cut and dry. I'm sure SNP support remains stellar but to be fair, they run a tight ship compared with their neighbours. Yes 2014 started at a much lower point but CoVid changes the conversation. "Better Together" was aspirational puffery, here there's a not unreasonable argument of "now is not the time".
briany wrote: » The argument against it at this point would be that it's best not to introduce a divisive in on top of economic malaise. Don't want to be hitting people with that double whammy.
Professor Moriarty wrote: » It has according to the polls. The SNP need to drill down into why support has faded recently. I think they have to be very cautious. The problem is that you can't have referendum after referendum. Especially if they lose it again. People will simply move on after a while ala Brexit. Plus the Tories will be banging the drum about the the cost of independence which will be significant. It might be better to hold off for a year or two in the hope that the Tories make a mess of the economy and Brexit realities hit hard.
