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Scottish independence

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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 971 ✭✭✭bob mcbob


    I would say Putin's Russia fails on all counts in your tests for democracy. Holding up an A4 white sheet of paper gets the person arrested and jailed. Likewise anyone using 'war' to describe the 'special military operation'.

    I rest my case




  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 19,992 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell


    Well, few would describe the current Tory regime as being a good example of democracy.

    Currently they are removing freedom of speech, right to protest, and brining in voter suppression. And there are many such matters in planning.

    I think your case would include the UK on the autocracy scale as closer to Putin than most EU member states - with perhaps two exceptions. I am sure you do not need to go to Google to identify them.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 26,848 ✭✭✭✭Peregrinus


    No, no. In a real democracy, the power of voters and the prospects of losing office are not the only, or even the main constraint, on government oppression. True democracies are also characterised by the rule of law - government authorities, just like citizens, must obey the law, and are answerable to the courts if they do not, and citizens have access to the courts for that purpose. It's the weakness or absence of the rule of law in countries like Russia that make them authoritarian, more than the weak electoral system.

    The UK has a dreadful electoral system which regularly delivers government to parties that a majority of voters have rejected, but it's not an authoritarian country, because the rule of law is still very much a reality in the UK.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 19,992 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell


    Quote ^^ 'The UK has a dreadful electoral system which regularly delivers government to parties that a majority of voters have rejected, but it's not an authoritarian country, because the rule of law is still very much a reality in the UK.'

    Not yet. But they are heading that way.

    Sending asylum seekers to Rwanda with no chance of return to the UK is against the UNHCR and is battling against the ECHR and failing. The UK courts are being bypassed.

    Preventing protests by increasing the powers of the police to break up all protests with little reason. Even holding up a blank A4 piece of paper had one protester arrested.

    I am sure there are many other examples creeping through UK life.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 26,848 ✭✭✭✭Peregrinus


    Sure. Not just in the UK but in all democracies citizens should be vigilant about this kind of thing.

    But the UK is a long way off being ranked with Russia in this regard.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 19,992 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell


    I think with Home Secretaries like Patel and Braverman, and a PM like Truss and Johnson - it is not impossible for that descent to be that improbable.

    Both Johnson and Patel were sacked from high office but returned to high office after that public sacking.

    Yes, a long way from being equated, but going down is easier that getting back up.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 45,630 ✭✭✭✭Mr.Nice Guy


    Don't suppose Sunak will be getting the wall-to-wall scrutiny that Sturgeon has received...



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,671 ✭✭✭✭Danzy


    SNP treasurer arrested for questioning now.


    Nicola and her activist type fans and friends have a lot to answer for

    What's the betting Humza will end up in the House of lords at some point.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 19,992 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell


    It looks like the Tory Gov have decided a bit of distraction is needed from the troubles in Westminster, what with the Met not bothering to investigate the Tory covid parties, the various other Tory scandals, the bullying by Tory Ministers, etc etc etc.

    So kill two birds with one idea - go after the SNP. Now who to start with - Nicola - far too popular. Now let us see what we can find!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,723 ✭✭✭tinytobe


    The SNP is basically finished.

    Sturgeon has been playing the great Independence Swindle to cover up her own incompetence. She kept a believe alive letting her voters to focus on something which will never happen whilst having the freedom of being a failure domestically. In domestic politics she has the worst record, but still talking about glorious independence. Finance scandal, arrests, some form of obvious feelings of nepotism between her and her husband, and the worst domestic record, NHS Scotland, high drug death rate, lower life expectancy than the rest of the UK, - and they still keep the independence talk alive, even though the supreme court has ruled against it.

    I also find it incredible having no financial auditor for nearly half a year, and pretending not knowing about it. Hamza Yusuf doesn't know anything about that one, is a bit hard to believe.

    Scotland would really be more of a failed state if the country became independent with the SNP.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,808 ✭✭✭✭Water John


    Really wonder how all those little countries in the Baltic and the Balkans haven't crashed and burned?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,739 ✭✭✭serfboard


    "Basically finished"? OK, care to make any predictions based on that? Like for the next Westminster (due 2025) or Scottish Parliament (due 2026) or local (due 2027) elections?

    We're an awful long way from any of those.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,480 ✭✭✭✭A Dub in Glasgo



    Police Scotland and the Proculator Fiscal do not answer to the Tory govt. These allegations go back years and the resignations over the last 2 months tell you that there is finally movement to investigate the allegations properly



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,723 ✭✭✭tinytobe


    I know, but if the scandals with the SNP do continue there will be calls for an early election. It was mentioned as a possibility by Scottish Labour even today.

    Suppose there are further arrests? Suppose this goes on and on? Suppose this goes further, court dates and convictions? Ultimately it's a credibility question. As far as I know, even if there were early elections they would still have elections in 2026.

    Maybe my opinion is biased. I never liked Scottish independence, I think it's economically impossible and based on false hopes and historical events, even going back more than 300 to 400 years. I also never liked populism and blinding voters from the reality. Other than constantly speaking about independence, the SNPs record on domestic Scottish matters is abysmal. Education, Health are a pure failure plus Scotland has the highest drug overdoses in Europe and life expectancy is also not exactly in the top ranks.

    The Scots just don't want to see it, they focus on medieval history and are blinded by the reality and act like as if they were a depressed minority.

    The Welsh got that a bit better, they focus on retaining more their own culture, their language, within the UK and not having that loudmouthed nonsense the SNP is constantly proclaiming.

    The SNP is a strange combination of nationalism and left-socialism which certainly won't work if it was an independent country. As long as they get money from London to pay for all that, but that's something their voters don't want to hear.



  • Registered Users Posts: 71 ✭✭Baasterd


    Can you imagine the carnage we would be looking at now in Scotland if the indie ref went the other way....

    Agreed a lot birds coming home to roost so to speak, the story will run and run and they may become a lame duck in power for a while but at least the spell seems to have been broken.

    For that we can give thanks



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,480 ✭✭✭✭A Dub in Glasgo




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,781 ✭✭✭✭hotmail.com


    This doesn't make any sense. The biggest benefactor to the SNP troubles is the Labour Party.

    Sunak has made Westminster politics boring again. So they don't need any distractions. Labour is their main worry, not the SNP.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,106 ✭✭✭Christy42


    I mean Scotland is also the one functional economic area of the UK outside of London so they deserve credit there. It was the one area that could have considered independence. The rest of the country has had economic growth focused on London.


    I can't see why there would be an early election. Labour didn't get one when the UK was nearly crippled financially by a PM in a matter of days so it seems like not much would cause an early election in the UK.


    It really is a pity there is no serious alternative that would be focused on Scotland. Scotland now will either vote back in the SNP after all the scandals or vote in parties that will gladly sacrifice Scotland's interests for Londons. Not a great choice.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,808 ✭✭✭✭Water John


    Labour need to grab the opportunity and offer something tangible for Scottish voters. Waiting simply to catch the possible fall off from the SNP is not a proactive strategy.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 71 ✭✭Baasterd


    Ha yeah times that by 100...and you might get close.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,480 ✭✭✭✭A Dub in Glasgo


    @Water John

    The only thing they offer Scotland is to make Brexit work



  • Registered Users Posts: 71 ✭✭Baasterd


    Indeed its a shame, but the SNP were never really focused on Scotland in the sense of trying to maximise its economic or social potential, there where and are focused on using it to maximise their own potential via the independence crusade and I use the word crusade intentionally, the result is failure on all standard metrics and now we seem to be scratching the surface on the 600k leading to some awkward questions for quite a few.

    Sadly the opposition parties are a mess, Labour in Scotland I think would stand for Scotland rather than Westminster to an extent but their problem is a lot of their potential swing voters are SNP nats, so they can't run on a unionist stance, but equally independence is a poisoned chalice.

    Scotland is a fantastic land but its gone backwards in the last 10yrs under the SNP hopefully class is permanent and form is temporary.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,671 ✭✭✭✭Danzy


    Labour in Scotland are a mess, there attitude is horrendous, the Tories in Scotland aren't half as bitter or angry.

    Labour need to change its attitude to its old base, can't see that happening, they also need to put distance between themselves and the nastier side of the orange order in Scotland, that's definitely not going to happen so that's the Catholic vote further alienated.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,138 ✭✭✭realitykeeper


    The new leader of the SNP will simply pick up the baton and continue with the drive for Scotish independence. If Westminster does not agree to a new referendum on Scottish independence, the next general election will serve the same purpose. A strong showing for the SNP will herald the end of the union and Scotland`s re-entry to the EU.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,808 ✭✭✭✭Water John


    It is a good question as to, should the majority of elected parliamentarians support independence be the measure or the direct vote of the majority of the people? We in Ireland, as we have a written constitution would be tied to the second, whilst the UK has Parliament as sovereign and so the first should prevail.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,501 ✭✭✭✭Fr Tod Umptious


    The problem for the new leader is that he is very much associated with the outgoing leadership that is now mired in controversy.

    During the race and when elected Yousaf was said to be the "continuity" candidate.

    That was all well and good until the party was plunged into crisis with the arrests, searches, resignations etc.

    By being a "continuity" candidate Yousaf is seen to be closer to that scandal than Forbes would have been.

    And seeing as he alienated Forbes and her supporters the way he handled his cabinet appointments he is in an even worse position.

    So the baton he is picking up is likely covered in and stinking of s**t, and no one will want to go near him.

    Labour can make great strides in Scotland by reminding the Scots that they can remove the Tories with each others help, and I'd imagine for many Scots the removal of the Tories is good enough for now.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,138 ✭✭✭realitykeeper


    That narrative is just wishful thinking by the North English. Scotish Nationalists want independence and that goalpost is teflon coated.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,808 ✭✭✭✭Water John


    Scottish Nationalists want independence, no question. Their simple problem is, under the current rules, they have to convince over half the voting population in a referendum.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 26,848 ✭✭✭✭Peregrinus


    There's a prior problem, which is that they can only conduct a referendum if Westminster graciously permits it, and Westminster is not minded to permit it.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 26,848 ✭✭✭✭Peregrinus


    It's not that simple. The Parnell split in the Irish Party in the 1890s probably held up progress towards home rule (and ultimately independence) by twenty years or so. An existential scandal for the SNP (which I think they are shaping up to have) could have a similar impact on the progress of the Scottish cause.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,501 ✭✭✭✭Fr Tod Umptious


    I'd argue that your narrative about the SNP driving on and having a strong showing in the next GE is wishful thinking.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,501 ✭✭✭✭Fr Tod Umptious


    It doesn't get any better for the SNP does it?

    Seems there was an unusual delay in issuing the search warrants on the Murrell/Sturgeon house.

    So much so that the search took place after the leadership election, rather than before.




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,739 ✭✭✭serfboard


    Did you actually read the article you posted? The headlines look bad but read the whole thing and you'll see that:

    Privately, prosecutors and police are deeply frustrated by the latest headlines and vehemently deny that the SNP's leadership contest played any part in the timing of the searches.

    One source close to the inquiry said: "The concept that there was a delay is misplaced. The decision was taken by a procurator fiscal with no political affiliation."

    Given the apparent complexity of the investigation and the fact that the stakes are so high, it would be astonishing if prosecutors were not taking their time and the greatest of care.

    And even Scottish Labour and Conservatives aren't definitively saying that there is evidence of interference. What they are saying is that there should be a better separation of powers, and no-one would disagree with that.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,501 ✭✭✭✭Fr Tod Umptious


    But it is not a good look for the SNP.

    So just add it to the list of "not good looks" like

    The female prison debacle.

    The Sturgeon resignation.

    The membership and leadership voting questions.

    Forbes and her supporters not getting any jobs in the new cabinet.

    The arrests and house seraches.

    The high end RV.

    Yousaf needs to start doing something, or at least be seen to be doing something good before he and the party become victims of the legacy of the previous leadership.

    If Scots want the Tories out a lot of them will start lending their votes to Labour to do it rather than sticking with the SNP.

    Post edited by Fr Tod Umptious on


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,480 ✭✭✭✭A Dub in Glasgo


    "If Scots want the Tories out a lot of them will start lending their votes to Labour to do it rather than sticking with the SNP."


    At the last election, 317 Tory MPs were elected to the UK parliament, 6 of them were elected by the voters in Scotland so your post above is utter nonsense



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,501 ✭✭✭✭Fr Tod Umptious


    But more Labour MPs mean they have a better chance of forming a government and thus a poorer chance the Conservatives have of forming a government.

    And one place Labour can get more MPs is Scotland



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 26,848 ✭✭✭✭Peregrinus


    Both Labour and the SNP oppose the Tories, and a vote for Labour is not more "anti-Tory", or more effective at removing a Tory government, than a vote for the SNP. Labour taking SNP seats in Scotland might affect whether the Tories are replaced with a single-party Labour government or a Labour government reliant for support on the SNP, but it won't affect whether the Tory government are replaced at all.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,739 ✭✭✭serfboard


    And the argument would be that an SNP-supported Labour government would deliver more for Scotland than a Labour government on its own.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,672 ✭✭✭rock22


    They might even deliver more for the whole of the UK if the arrangement came with a commitment to electoral reform,



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,501 ✭✭✭✭Fr Tod Umptious


    Why would the SNP want electoral reform when FPTT gives them 88% of the seats with 45% of the vote in a GE?



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 26,848 ✭✭✭✭Peregrinus


    Because 88% of Scotland's seats in Westminster is still only 45 seats out of 650, which is shag all use.

    In Westminster terms, what matters to the SNP is not who wins most seats in Scotland; it's who wins most seats in England; that is substantially what decides who gets to form the UK government. And while FPTP delivers the SNP more that its fair share of Scottish seats, it also reliably delivers either the Labour party or the Tory party more than its fair share of English seats, and that's much more significant. It nearly always means that a Westminster government can be formed without having to rely on the SNP or any other any third party (or indeed on votes from Scottish MPs of any party).

    A more democratic electoral system might give the SNP fewer seats in Westminster, but it would very likely give it more influence, since single-party majority governments, particularly those elected by English votes alone, would become unusual.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 19,992 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell


    Changing FPTP to STV is only half the story, as multi seat constituencies is also needed to get full proportional representation.

    Our system works down to 5% first pref votes get 5% of the seats (more or less).

    Of course, measuring STV by first pref votes is a bit distorted because it ignores the no-hopers getting a bit of support from well wishers and friends, but also the element of anyone-but-xxx votes which are basically votes against certain candidates.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,808 ✭✭✭✭Water John


    We've a fairly extreme system of PR. Many other countries don't let any party not getting a minimum threshold, say 5% national vote. They also combine a list system with direct elections. Many different formats, but all better than what the UK has at present.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 19,992 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell


    There are many systems of election that are accepted as 'democratic' and 'free and fair'. The FPTP is the least of these systems.

    The list system gives the party central office control to get their major players elected, and it guaranteed Farage an MEP seat. If it is done in conjunction with a normal STV system for individuals, then it does give stability, and a reasonable democratic system.

    A minimum vote at, say, 5% (of a quota) would attempt to bar the loonies, which has a lot of merit.

    The Scottish system is a bit weird, in that it attempts to provide seats for poor performing parties by getting them representation to match their overall votes. The Tories benefit from that provision.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 36,665 ✭✭✭✭BorneTobyWilde


    Former First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has been arrested



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,723 ✭✭✭tinytobe


    Sturgeon has been taking the Scottish voters for a ride for nearly 20 years. I think she was only voted for her Scottish accent and the attitude she had towards Westminster, voters with an nationalist view liked that naturally. In the event of Scottish independence Scotland would have to deal with a corrupt and incompetent government and even worse, they wouldn't be able to blame anything on Westminster anymore....

    Also as somebody with a law degree Sturgeon should have known better.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,393 ✭✭✭Grassey




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,567 ✭✭✭Risteard81


    Sturgeon is an unlikable woman. Salmond seemed much more affable. I'm sure he thoroughly enjoyed her temporary caging earlier, and rightly so.



  • Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators Posts: 10,502 Mod ✭✭✭✭Jim2007


    Wow imagine, the voters in Scotland have been voting for a party and candidates that do not represent their views and position for over twenty years…

    And despite every other democracy incorporating the separation of powers into their system of government because they fully expect corruption to occur, Scotland can’t do the same and police it in the same way……

    At this point it remains to be seen who or even if anyone is finally prosecuted in the investigation going on in Scotland. And while it makes great press, the reality is in a fraud investigation it is common to arrest people so they can be interviewed under caution.

    Membership of the single market favours small nations and there is nothing to say that Scotland can’t manage their affairs as well and as successful as the other small nations of Europe. Furthermore they don’t even need to join the EU, they can joint EFTA and access the Single Market via the EEA agreement just Norway. That means they can also retain the pound if they wish and there is nothing England could do about it as Ireland did the same! Of course having a second central bank and government using the currency will be difficult for the BOE, but they will just have to suck it up as they did in the past.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,723 ✭✭✭tinytobe


    I'd say, after the next general election there will be a push for the UK to rejoin the EU, whether that's feasible or not, we don't know.

    Regarding Scottish independence, it's always been known that any referendum won't legally happen without Westminster's consent. Westminster said no several times. The highest court in the UK confirmed that as well. And yet Sturgeon refuses to believe that, even though she has a law degree.

    And the next mistake the SNP made is turning a referendum into a neverendum causing uncertainty, unclarity and continue to divide society.



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