Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)

Monday, 22 March, 2021

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 22 to 28 March 2021

-- Temperatures will average near normal values, generally 1-2 above normal but quite cold around Friday.
-- Rainfall will slowly return to the weather picture and by end of this interval may have reached near normal at least in the west, possibly 50-75 per cent of normal for the east by then.
-- Sunshine will only reach 50 to 75 per cent of normal. This current regime of very light winds will slowly be replaced by more moderate or average range of wind speeds and after that, quite windy conditions by Thursday on.


FORECASTS

TODAY will be cloudy with a few breaks, generally dry with a slight chance of light showers in the west, and highs in the range of 12 to 14 C.

TONIGHT will be overcast with lows near 7 C.

TUESDAY will be mostly cloudy, moderate south to southwest winds will set in by afternoon, and some rain will arrive in the west around mid-day reaching the east by evening. About 5-10 mm amounts are expected, with highs in the range of 13 to 16 C, mildest inland southeast.

WEDNESDAY will be partly to mostly cloudy with a few showers and moderate southwest winds, lows near 6 C and highs near 14 C.

THURSDAY will become more windy by afternoon and evening with rain at times, 5-10 mm amounts expected, and while temperatures may start out relatively mild, it will turn colder late in the day, highs near 12 C mid-day then falling to 4-7 C.

FRIDAY will be windy and quite cold for time of year with passing sleety or even wintry showers, some chance of snow on hills in the north and west, lows near 2 C and highs near 7 C. Winds southwest to west 50 to 80 km/hr.

SATURDAY and SUNDAY both look rather windy with intervals of rain although some dry spells too, milder again with temperatures recovering to around 14 C, winds south-southwest 70 to 110 km/hr at times, and risk of strong wind gusts developing in exposed northern areas.

This windy regime is expected to moderate by Monday with the southerly flow becoming more westerly and temperatures near 12 C. Later in the week towards the Easter weekend the current indications are for improving weather due to high pressure being near Ireland by mid-week on, details a bit uncertain with some indications of the flow turning southeasterly but staying fairly mild.

My local weather on Sunday was overcast and chilly with snow showers turning to more persistent wet snow that left a slushy accumulation of about 2-4 cms and has tapered off to drizzly sleet at this point. Our first go at spring has blown up on the launching pad so it's on to the next attempt now.

Wednesday, 24 March, 2021

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 24 to 30 Mar 2021

-- Temperatures will average near normal, but briefly quite cold around Friday, also turning colder in stages next week, it should balance out to near the long-term average for late March, but the second week in the outlook period on current guidance would be 3-5 degrees below average (going from 31st to 7th April).
-- Rainfall will gradually begin to pick up and could accumulate enough to reach near average amounts by the end of next weekend, although parts of the east and south are likely to remain relatively dry (50% of average).
-- Sunshine will be rather infrequent and winds will become moderate for several days and occasionally strong around Friday-Saturday.


FORECASTS

TODAY ... A mixture of cloud and sunny breaks for most, increasing cloud by afternoon, passing showers spreading gradually from west to east, relatively mild with highs 12 to 14 C.

TONIGHT ... Mostly cloudy, occasional light rain, lows near 8 C.

THURSDAY ... Increasing cloud, intervals of rain, temperatures steady near 12 C. Turning much cooler in the late afternoon and evening especially in Connacht, west Ulster and parts of west Munster. Winds southwest 50 to 80 km/hr. Temperatures will be falling steadily overnight.

FRIDAY ... Windy and cold with passing showers, some sleety or even wintry on hills in north and west. Winds southwest 50 to 80 km/hr. Lows near 2 C and highs 6 to 9 C.

SATURDAY ... Continued windy, but turning milder in stages, quite mild by afternoon and evening when temperatures will peak at around 14 C (it may be closer to 8-10 C mid-day with the morning low probably not much above freezing; Saturday night looks a lot milder). Winds southwest 70 to 90 km/hr, possibly stronger near exposed Atlantic coasts. Occasional rain but it may only be intermittent or drizzly away from the northwest coasts.

SUNDAY ... Little change now expected except that rain will be less frequent than Saturday, continued windy and mild with temperatures steady 12 to 14 C. Probably cloudy in most areas, but could become brighter at times in parts of the southeast.

MONDAY ... Occasional light rain, temperatures steady near 10 C.

NEXT WEEK ... The models have already kissed and made up, with that disparity I mentioned yesterday gone, just minor details different now -- it certainly looks cold for most of next week and especially cold by the Easter weekend as a slow decline in temperature mid-week turns into more of a plunge to wintry levels by Good Friday (2nd of April) and temperatures quite possibly near freezing much of the time over Easter, which may promote some local wintry falls of snow or sleet. Still time for this to moderate of course, but quite a strong and consistent signal for this lead time.

My local weather improved, still in the cool air mass but with sunshine most of the day, the high struggled up to about 5 or 6 C, ice lingers in the shade though, along with small remnants of the snow that fell (which was never very much). That old winter snow pack gets a bit crustier each day and now averages about 30 cms where it hasn't been disturbed.

Friday, 26 March, 2021

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for week of 26 Mar to 1 Apr 2021 --

-- Temperatures will average 1 to 3 deg below normal values.
-- Rainfall will total about 75% of normal in the west and north, to 25% in the southeast.
-- Sunshine may eventually catch up to normal amounts later in the period. It will be quite windy today and Saturday, moderately windy thereafter.


FORECASTS

TODAY will be cold with passing mixed wintry showers. Some of the more vigorous showers could have hail and thunder, and other mixed forms like snow pellets (the faster they fall, the less time they have to melt). There will also be breaks in the overcast and sunny intervals, those probably longer in Leinster and Munster. Highs only reaching 5 to 9 C, and temperatures prone to falling to near freezing during any heavy mixed showers, which may leave some higher elevation roads slippery from snow or hail covering from time to time. Winds southwest to west at about 50 to 80 km/hr adding considerable chill (although the late March sun has the opposite effect).

TONIGHT will continue windy and cold but most of the mixed wintry showers should die out for a while, if any persist they could turn to steady light snow on hills. Lows -1 to +3 C.

SATURDAY will have slowly rising temperatures all day continuing into the evening and overnight hours, as much milder air from the Atlantic gradually replaces this cold sector, with temperatures likely to be around 6-9 C mid-day and up to 10-13 C in the late afternoon and evening. Winds southwest 50-80 km/hr and some higher gusts likely in Connacht and west Ulster. Occasional rain will develop in those areas, but it may stay fairly dry in the southeast.

SUNDAY will be breezy and quite mild in most areas, highs 12 to 15 C, possibly a bit lower in north Connacht and most of Ulster at 8-10 C. Winds southwest 40-70 km/hr. Some outbreaks of drizzle or light rain near a frontal band across the north, probably staying dry in some parts of the south however.

MONDAY will be mild too with some sunny breaks, a few outbreaks of light rain crossing northern counties, and highs reaching 12-16 C in many areas (9-11 C north).

TUESDAY the south will start out in that milder air mass but much colder air will press in rapidly from the north, anywhere that makes it to 10 C will probably fall back to about 7 C which will be typical for most of the northern half of the country, in partly cloudy skies. A few showers along this front might linger near the south coast until near the end of the afternoon. Winds turning northerly at 40-60 km/hr.

WEDNESDAY will be quite cold with north to northeast winds, lows -2 to +3 C and highs 5 to 9 C, some chance of a few mixed wintry showers over higher ground, but also some sunny intervals.

THURSDAY will also be rather cold with frosts and highs reaching about 8 to 10 C.

The guidance at present has diverged a little on the details of the cold spell after that, some indications that a more moderate wedge of high pressure will save parts of the Easter weekend from being exceptionally cold, but this is no guarantee as other guidance resists this change, and in any case, it would be a brief interruption with unseasonable wintry chill returning at some point around Easter Sunday in any case. That could persist into part of the following week before there is much moderation. Anyway, lots of time left before this becomes an immediate forecast concern and some chance of it totally changing to a different outlook the way the models have been performing in recent months. (maybe they caught a virus?)

My local weather was partly cloudy with passing showers, some of them mixed (although not as windy as you have it today, basically the same weather set-up here). Highs were in the range of 5 to 10 C by elevation. The snow line has crept up to around 700 metres now with the first spring flowers showing up in the valley, something we won't be seeing up here for at least a month. Our elevation difference of 500 metres produces the same weather differences as you would associate with going north for about five hundred kilometres.

Anyway, stay safe if you have to drive anywhere today, conditions could be changeable and especially so if you're located in the west or north.

Sunday, 28 March, 2021

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 28 Mar to 3 Apr 2021

-- Temperatures will average 2 to 4 deg above normal values. The colder push expected some time around the middle to end of the week has been pushed back a few days and this milder trend may persist even into the Easter weekend although with the changes from day to day on model runs, nothing should be taken as guaranteed yet.
-- Rainfall will likely average about 50 per cent of normal in a few parts of the west but otherwise closer to 25 per cent.
-- Sunshine will improve through the week and may end up above normal eventually. Winds have peaked now and will be mostly moderate or near the average range for most of this interval.


FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly cloudy to overcast in the south and overcast in other areas, with scattered showers or outbreaks of rain, generally rather patchy with amounts about 5 to 10 mm. It will become milder again with highs in the 12 to 15 C range, possibly held down a bit in the north. Winds southwest 40 to 60 km/hr at times.

TONIGHT will feature some drizzle, fog and mist in some areas, and mild overnight lows of 5 to 8 C.

MONDAY will become partly cloudy with any lingering drizzle or rain increasingly confined to the northwest. Moderate south to southwest breezes and very mild with highs 13 to 17 C.

TUESDAY will continue very mild with some hazy sunshine, lows 5 to 8 C and highs 14 to 18 C.

The interval from WEDNESDAY to EASTER SUNDAY is now subject to a changed outlook in general with models starting to delay the arrival of the much colder air to the night of the 4th-5th. High pressure that will now apparently rule the roost for a while is somewhat cooler than the very mild spell ahead but not that cool either, with the full sunshine of early April to help out, highs could be in the comfortable 9 to 14 C range with northeast breezes in some areas holding temperatures down somewhat. I am not entirely confident this is the last large-scale change the models may make and so would caution that a colder outlook could return to the scene, but for now this is what the guidance is telling us (I am but the messenger etc ) ... this settled spell should be fairly cool at night once the higher pressure sets in and some slight frosts or patchy shallow fog in valleys can be expected towards dawn most days in this interval.

The same charts that have delayed the cold spell have also made it even more ferocious when it does arrive, which is not something that I entirely accept given this history of frequent change, but be aware that according to global models which have cost a lot more money than you or I will ever see, record breaking cold will advance from the highest latitudes that money can buy (they run out at the north pole) and swoop down on Britain and Ireland around the end of the Easter weekend and hold sway for Monday, Tuesday (5-6 Apr) before slowly relenting. That could mean temperatures down around record low values for those dates and at least mixed wintry showers (if any of it actually happens). It will be an interesting few days for weather watchers and all we can say at this early stage is, proof is in the pudding so to speak, that could all look a bit over-cooked by the time it's supposed to arrive.

My local weather was a bit milder on Saturday with a lot of mid-level cloud around, brisk southerly breezes and highs pushing up a bit above 10 degrees.

(just a note for one or two people perhaps, we're now on to summer time, or more accurately, you are now on to it, I had the privilege two weeks ago, so if it suddenly appears to be an hour later than you expected, there's the reason for it, clocks moved ahead overnight from 0100h to 0200h, if the police ask you where you were at 0130h give them a blank stare and an enigmatic smile.)

Tuesday, 30 March, 2021

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 30 Mar to 5 Apr 2021 --

-- Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg above normal, starting out 5-6 above today and slowly drifting down towards the other extreme by Monday 5th.
-- Rainfalls will average 10 to 20 per cent of normal except possibly in Donegal and nearby, 30 per cent there.
-- Sunshine will average 25 to 50 per cent above normal. Wind speeds will be about average most of the interval, picking up to quite strong northerlies later Sunday 4th into Monday 5th.


FORECASTS

TODAY will feature hazy sunshine and warm temperatures with highs 15 to 18 C (except for a few spots near the south coast where sea fog may drift in at times and hold temperatures down to 10-12 C). There will be somewhat more cloud in western counties at least for the morning. Generally light southerly breezes.

TONIGHT will be hazy with some patchy mist or fog developing, mild with lows 7 to 10 C. Rain may develop late in the night across parts of Ulster.

WEDNESDAY will turn considerably cooler in many areas as winds turn northeasterly at 30-50 km/hr, some rain returning to Donegal and spreading down the west coast during the day (5-10 mm possible). Mostly cloudy elsewhere but some brighter intervals persisting in the southeast where it may remain somewhat warmer. Morning lows in all areas around 8 C but temperatures only edging back up slightly in the north and west to 10-12 C, recovering to 14-16 C in the southeast.

THURSDAY while the winds remain easterly, the fresher variety of air mass will be gradually moderating back to pleasant spring warmth, with lows 4-7 C and highs 12-15 C, warmest in west Munster. With the east wind, it would be the Leinster coastline seeing some local cooling from sea breezes. Skies may start out rather cloudy becoming at least partly sunny by mid-day and afternoon.

(GOOD) FRIDAY will remain dry and mixtures of cloud and sun in east winds of 30-50 km/hr, morning lows 2-5 C and afternoon highs 11-15 C with some cooler readings possible in the east.

SATURDAY will remain similar with partly cloudy skies, less of an east wind factor as a ridge crests over Ireland, so local sea breezes possible on all coasts, highs 10-14 C.

EASTER SUNDAY may hold on to similar pleasant temperatures at least to the afternoon although the north may see a sharp drop towards late in the day, and while dry weather is expected to continue for most, a band of rain will be arriving from the north late afternoon or evening. Highs 10-13 C early in the day with a sharp drop likely by afternoon in northern counties, by the overnight hours for the south coast.

MONDAY-TUESDAY (5th-6th Apr) are still being shown as much colder days with northerly winds of 50-80 km/hr and mixed wintry showers likely, some snow on hills. Highs only 4 to 6 C and lows -3 to +1 C.

The further outlook then calls for slight moderation but with potential for a second wave of very cold temperatures to follow within a week. In general, this guidance is probably only "medium" confidence at this point but it should be noted that the interval from 5 to 15 April shows up about as cold as any recent year has ever produced at this time of year.

My local weather on Monday was partly cloudy and quite cold, highs only reaching about 4 C, and feeling colder than that in a northwest wind.

Thursday, 1st of April, 2021

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 1 to 7 April, 2021

-- Temperatures will average 2 to 4 deg below normal values, largely because of very cold temperatures expected on Monday and Tuesday, but it will also be rather cool in the east before that arrives, so that is where the average might be as low as 4 below normal, the milder west will build up some above normal averages before the cold arrives.
-- Rainfalls will be about 25 per cent of normal values, or less in some areas, as wintry showers on Monday and Tuesday are not likely to produce heavy precipitation. Some rain late Sunday is the main producer of any totals at all.
-- Sunshine will vary from 25 per cent below normal in some east and north coast counties to 25 per cent above normal in the south and west. These differences will build up in the first half of the interval. Most places will be rather cloudy from Sunday to next Wednesday.
-- Winds will be light to moderate until Sunday afternoon or evening, then rather strong for about a day and a half before backing off to moderate again.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be rather cloudy near the east coast and cooler with highs 8 to 13 C, some low cloud or sea fog and drizzle is possible at times, but not too far inland some brighter spells may also be encountered. Further west and in particular near the west coast, the easterly flow will allow for warmth to spread to the coast and bring temperatures up to 14 C or thereabouts, although some drifting low cloud and sea fog could be near all coastlines at times.

TONIGHT will feature some clear intervals and the eastern cloud may break to partly cloudy skies, lows 3 to 7 C.

GOOD FRIDAY will be a similar day but likely a bit less cloudy over eastern regions so highs could be more similar to those further west, 10 to 14 C. Both Thursday and Friday, a few places in west Munster may be even warmer than forecasts are saying, a local 17-19 C would not be too surprising since there hasn't really been a strong change of air mass.

By SATURDAY the easterly flow will be replaced by light westerly breezes and this could push in marine cloud layers over parts of Ulster and Connacht, while sunshine prevails further east on this occasion. Lows of 1 to 4 C and highs about 12 to 15 C are expected.

EASTER SUNDAY will start off in this same moderate air mass, but it will be rather suddenly replaced by much colder air arriving mid-afternoon in the north to early evening in the south, on strong northwest to north winds. Morning lows 1 to 4 C, afternoon highs 8 to 11 C north, 11 to 14 C south. Temperatures will fall quickly in the late afternoon and evening, rain turning to sleet or snow in some places, although accumulations expected to be patchy 1-2 cm.

MONDAY will be unseasonably cold with strong north winds 50 to 80 km/hr, some higher gusts in exposed coastal locations adding a chill to near record low temperatures starting out around -1 or -2 C and working back to only highs of 3 to 6 C. Passing wintry showers could lay down some temporary coatings of snow, or graupel (a form of hail) and snow pellets are likely too, some thunder may develop in heavier showers. There will be a few brighter intervals especially across the south. Wind chills may be as low as -4 C in some areas.

TUESDAY will be just about as cold although not quite as windy, and the inland penetration of wintry showers may be somewhat reduced with northern and western high ground seeing more of them, lows -2 to -4 C and highs 3 to 7 deg C.

WEDNESDAY will bring a slight moderation as a weak warm sector develops between this first outbreak and a second one following on, so as winds become briefly westerly at 30-50 km/hr, under cloudy skies with some rain at times, temperatures will recover a bit to 8 or 9 C.

By THURSDAY into FRIDAY and the following weekend, a new batch of very cold air is likely to arrive, not quite as cold as the first round, so highs of 4 to 7 C and overnight lows of -2 to +2 C are expected; more sleety showers but the mix will likely be less snow and more rain than the first interval. This cold spell looks like it will just gradually moderate a degree or two each day until things get back to near normal mid-April weather for a while; however, the pattern looks capable of reloading at intervals with further cold spells so the month as a whole is likely to be quite a bit below normal in temperature, and eventually rainfalls may increase as the Atlantic tries to restore its dominant role with a storm track near or just south of Ireland at times by later in the month. If there was ever to be a repeat of legendary snowfalls of the distant past in April (such as in 1917) this type of cold outbreak is one necessary ingredient, but nothing on the charts suggests an exact duplication of that event (1st-2nd Apr 1917, some parts of southern and western Ireland had very heavy snowfalls -- the culprit was a slow-moving low pressure area that circled around over Britain for several days with air masses at record cold levels pushing in from the northeast and later on from the northwest). Some higher places could see 2-5 cm snow cover during this coming event but they were measuring snow in feet in the 1917 storm. Over in Britain they had their coldest April day in a 250-year interval and in Ireland there were readings colder than on any other April days also.

My local weather was sunny and a bit milder than recent days, with a high near 9 C. Out of the breeze it felt a lot warmer than that. The eastern warm spell (in the U.S.) has come to an end and some snow is expected inland with a cold rain near the coast.

Saturday, 3 April, 2021

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 3 to 9 April 2021 --

-- Temperatures will average 2 to 4 deg below normal values, although today will likely be near or even slightly above.
-- Rainfall will be about 25 to 50 per cent of normal, the heavier amounts being more likely in the north and west.
-- Sunshine will be near normal values, despite a lot of cloud mid-week. Wind speeds will be light today and part of Sunday, moderate to strong at times the rest of the interval, and mainly from a northwest to north direction.


FORECASTS

TODAY will be sunny with some patchy cloud developing near coasts in the northwest later on, but for most the only cloud will be increasing high cloud, perhaps leading to a nice sunset. Highs 11 to 15 C, this time the warmth will likely be more concentrated in the inland south and east as a light westerly flow sets in.

TONIGHT will continue rather clear in many places, with the increasing high cloud somewhat thicker over western and northern counties. Lows -2 to +3 C.

EASTER SUNDAY will start out fairly pleasant and the weather in at least the southern half of the country will be similar to today until mid-afternoon. Further north, cloud will increase faster and showers may develop in the afternoon. A sharp cold front is expected to race through all regions after sunset, and timing at present is around 8 p.m. for Ulster, to 2 a.m. for the south coast. Shortly after the front passes, temperatures will begin to fall off sharply after highs of 11 to 14 C. The overnight period to Monday morning will be windy and much colder with mixed wintry showers developing, winds northwest 40 to 70 km/hr with some higher gusts near exposed coasts.

MONDAY will be partly cloudy with scattered wintry showers, tending to be more vigorous in parts of Ulster and Connacht, and prone to falls of accumulating snow on hills there. Morning lows near -1 C then afternoon highs unseasonably cold at 4 to 7 C. Winds northwest 50 to 80 km/hr at times will add several degrees of chill factor and temperatures may fall back during and after any heavier wintry showers.

TUESDAY will also be cold with passing wintry showers but perhaps not as windy with northwest to north winds of about 40 to 60 km/hr. Morning lows near -2 C and afternoon highs near 6 C.

WEDNESDAY will become slightly milder with skies mostly cloudy, although a few brighter intervals possible, as well as scattered outbreaks of light rain mostly found over northern counties. Winds will back to westerly 40 to 60 km/hr, lows near 2 C and highs near 9 or 10 C.

THURSDAY will continue to feel the influence of this weak warmer wedge for at least the morning as latest guidance has slowed the arrival of a second cold air mass, but northern counties could still get into that during the afternoon and evening, so for those areas, highs near 7 C could be replaced with colder readings by late in the day. Further south it will likely get back to around 9 or 10 C again after morning lows of 2 to 5 C. Passing showers could be rather heavy in a few places especially near any frontal boundary that forms across the north.

By FRIDAY and SATURDAY the entire country will be back into a second cold air mass that looks just about equal to the first one in terms of potential for low temperatures and wintry showers, however, it also looks a bit more unsettled with more of a cyclonic influence so that perhaps there will actually be more widespread wintry showers in this second interval, temperatures similar to the first (highs 5 to 8 C at best, some frosts at night).

Guidance beyond about next weekend is probably not very reliable at this point and it tends to suggest a cycle of weak warming intervals and reloading of the northerly chill at various points going forward, the timing is probably the least reliable aspect of that.

My local weather on Good Friday was mild with increasing high cloud that just about obscured the Sun by afternoon, although temperatures were comfortable at 12 C. Some snow-free valleys in the province had readings closer to 18 to 20 C. Hope you have a pleasant weekend before the cold arrives Sunday night. In most places Sunday should remain fairly pleasant until that front pushes through and that could be fairly late in the day on latest guidance.

Monday, 5 April, 2021

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 5 to 11 April, 2021

-- Temperatures will average 3 to 5 deg below normal values.
-- Rainfall will average 25 to 50 per cent of normal, in fact this should be precipitation because part of it could take on wintry forms. The higher portions will likely be in Ulster and north Connacht.
-- Sunshine will average about 75 per cent of normal, somewhat lower in the north. Winds will increase to moderate and remain in that range most of the interval, infrequently gusting to strong levels, and occasionally dropping off to light inland.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be mostly cloudy and cold with a mixture of rain, hail and snow showers with the trend being for rain showers being most frequent in the south and west, snow in Ulster and north Leinster, parts of Connacht, and hail or mixed wintry types in between. The coldest air has pushed into east Ulster this morning and is slowly winning out over the remnants of the milder air mass in place on the weekend. Temperatures are in the 1-3 C range in Ulster, and 3-5 C in most of Connacht and Leinster, while still about 4-7 C in Munster. In all cases, there won't be much of a daytime rise in these values, although a few degrees could be attained wherever the sun breaks through the cloud. Towards mid-afternoon there will be a second wave of cooling and temperatures could fall off rapidly during or after any heavy wintry showers. Winds northwest to north 40 to 70 km/hr will add a chill factor.

TONIGHT will be partly cloudy and very cold with a few more wintry showers in places, some accumulations of snow likely on higher ground in the north. Lows -3 to +1 C. The moderate northwest winds will continue in most places dropping off well inland.

TUESDAY will continue partly to mostly cloudy and cold with scattered wintry showers, moderate northwest to north winds (40-60 km/hr) and highs 4 to 7 C.

WEDNESDAY will turn somewhat milder, after a sharp frost across the inland south under clearing skies. Lows near -3 C and highs near 9 C for the south and some central counties. Further north, due to extensive cloud, the range will be more like 2 C to 7 C, and rain will begin during the afternoon and continue off and on overnight (5-15 mm expected).

THURSDAY will see further showers as this front begins to push south, with lows -1 to +3 C and highs 6 to 9 C. It will begin to turn quite cold again in Ulster by late in the afternoon, and in other regions overnight.

FRIDAY will be breezy and very cold with mixed wintry showers, and highs only 4 to 7 C.

SATURDAY morning could be exceptionally cold if skies remain clear, some guidance suggests lows below -5 C in the inland south and southeast. The daytime hours will remain quite cold with variable cloud and highs 3 to 7 C.

The further outlook at this point calls for colder than normal weather to persist; some earlier hints of a more variable regime seem to have faded in favour of cold dominating and only weak moderations of temperature between intervals of very cool weather (for mid-April). This could continue for at least another week.

My local weather on Easter Sunday was overcast with spits of light rain mid-day, but no real measurable amount, then partial clearing towards evening, and a bit colder than recent days with a high of about 7 C.

Wednesday, 7 April, 2021

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 7 to 13 April, 2021

-- Temperatures will average 2 to 4 deg below normal values.
-- Rainfalls will amount to 25-50 per cent of normal, and there will be some wintry mixtures involved.
-- Sunshine will be 50 to 75 per cent of normal, winds will continue rather moderate and mainly from westerly to northerly directions.


FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly to mostly cloudy, with outbreaks of light rain, sleety on some hills, although it will become slightly less cold today with highs reaching 8 to 10 C. A more persistent light rain is expected across northern counties by late afternoon and evening (5-8 mm likely with this). Breezes will be westerly 40 to 60 km/hr at times.

TONIGHT will continue mostly cloudy, outbreaks of light rain dying out, lows 3 to 5 C.

THURSDAY will bring variable amounts of cloud and some further showers, followed by a more organized frontal band of rain late in the day, moving from north to south with 5-10 mm amounts. Highs 9 to 11 C. Turning colder late in the day in Ulster and north Connacht, then this colder air spreading slowly south overnight, turning rain to sleet or wet snow in places.

FRIDAY will be cloudy with a few sunny breaks and cold, with lows 1 to 3 C and highs 5 to 9 C, colder values in the north. Mixed wintry showers will come and go, perhaps more frequently in the west this time, as winds will be northerly at 40 to 60 km/hr feeding wintry showers down the west coast.

SATURDAY will start out with a sharp frost in some areas, lows -5 to -1 C. Then snow showers may become fairly widespread by mid-day and afternoon, and it will remain unseasonably cold with highs 3 to 7 C in north to northeast winds of 40 to 60 km/hr.

SUNDAY will be cloudy and cold after a rather frosty start, lows -3 to +2 C, then highs near 7 or 8 C with mixed wintry showers becoming less widespread, in northerly breezes.

NEXT WEEK looks like continuing the cold trend with just a slight moderation in temperatures and probably more chance of cold rain than wintry mixtures, but still below seasonal averages with highs 8 to 10 C.

My local weather on Tuesday was sunny and quite mild with highs near 15 C. Not much sign of spring around us at this elevation although most of the crusty old snow has disappeared in town, still on all the local hilltops however. Will be checking out the progress of spring down in the valley later on "today." (tomorrow really in my time zone)

Friday, 9 April, 2021

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 9 to 15 April 2021 --

-- Temperatures will average 2 to 4 deg below normal.
-- Rainfall will be around 25 to 50 per cent of normal, higher values in the north, and some portions of that wintry.
-- Sunshine will average 75 per cent of normal, and wind speeds will be generally moderate in the 30-50 km/hr range but some calm nights will occur especially inland.


FORECASTS

TODAY will see further outbreaks of light rain heading further south into Munster and south Leinster. A more wintry mixture of showers is feeding into Ulster and parts of north Connacht, north Leinster, and these will also make further progress south. A zone in between the front and the air mass showers will have the longest sunny intervals but these will fade away in the afternoon as cloud increases. Quite cold especially in the north where highs only 4 to 7 C, around 8 or 9 C in the south.

TONIGHT will see widespread partial clearing and some sharp frosts are expected in many areas of the south and central counties, lows -5 to -1 C. It will likely stay cloudier in the north with ongoing wintry showers and some accumulations of snow especially on hills in west Ulster. Lows there -2 to +1 C.

SATURDAY morning sunshine with the frost dissipating, then increasing cloud from north to south. Wintry showers will become rather widespread by mid-day in a moderate northerly flow (30-50 km/hr), highs only 3 to 7 C. Some accumulations of snow may develop further south during the afternoon. Once again skies will tend to clear up by evening and overnight there could be some more sharp frosts developing in the inland southeast in particular.

SUNDAY will then start out with the frosts and lows of -4 to +1 C, then variable amounts of cloud and only a few isolated showers, not as many of them wintry as temperatures will recover slightly to highs of 7 to 9 C.

NEXT WEEK will continue dry and rather cool for most of the time, a few weak disturbances will try to push in from the west but high pressure over Britain and central Europe will keep most of that rain either out to sea or confined to west and south coast counties if any does reach Ireland. Temperatures will continue a bit below average but it won't be quite as cold as this coming weekend. Highs will be generally around 9 to 11 C each day and some nights will have slight frosts. This pattern seems fairly long-lived but could slowly change more towards normal mid to late April temperatures eventually.

My local weather on Thursday was partly cloudy with some dark clouds over higher terrain, probably dropping snow there but we saw no precipitation and it would have been hail or rain as temperatures were around 7 or 8 C. The snow cover in the region now ranges from bare ground with slight spring vegetation response in the valleys to patchy snow locally to 25-40 cm snow cover remaining in the alpine around 1500 m asl. We were on a highway in that area around mid-afternoon and it was -2 C with a very cold wind blowing.

Sunday, 11 April, 2021

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 11 to 17 April 2021 --

-- Temperatures will remain 2 to 4 deg below normal values.
-- Rainfall will be only about 25 per cent of normal in the north, to near zero in the south.
-- Sunshine will be about 75 per cent of normal, possibly reaching normal amounts in parts of the west. It will generally not be very windy with moderate breezes most days and frequently calm nights.


FORECASTS

TODAY will be similar to yesterday in that cold temperatures and sunshine will be fairly widespread at first, followed by a steady increase in cloud mid-day and outbreaks of sleety or wintry showers, perhaps a little less numerous than yesterday. Highs will reach 5 to 8 C.

TONIGHT will see areas of light rain or sleet mixing with wet snow across north central counties, and partly to mostly cloudy skies further south but with a few breaks perhaps allowing slight frosts, lows generally 1 to 4 C.

MONDAY the light rain or sleet will move into north Leinster and slowly out to sea by afternoon, while most other areas have partly to mostly cloudy skies, some sunny breaks developing, and slightly milder temperatures 8 to 11 C.

TUESDAY will be partly cloudy with slight frosts in the morning, and moderate temperatures by afternoon, lows around -1 C and highs 10 to 13 C.

This slow warming trend will likely cap at 11-14 C highs by mid week and could see a slight falling back by the weekend as cloudier skies limit the heating potential of the mid-April sunshine, and a somewhat cooler sector rotates around the high pressure from a source region in east-central Europe. These changes will be slight and may not be that noticeable as trends, so in general would expect a dry and rather bland pattern to develop as temperatures at least make a partial recovery towards normal values. This almost average temperature regime looks set to continue into a second week of the outlook period; the one fairly active front we were tracking in yesterday's outlook now seems less likely to reach even western counties so it could stay quite dry for the better part of two weeks, once the light rain event tomorrow comes and goes (and some won't be seeing much if any of that rainfall). Although the model output gives little hope of any real warmth, with high pressure stalling out near Britain and the North Sea it wouldn't take much of a change in the balance to create a warmer flow from the continent, however, there are no reliable indicators of that actually happening within two weeks. I wouldn't be surprised if May turned out to be quite warm however.

My local weather was fairly similar to your own, partly to mostly cloudy skies, cold temperatures reaching highs of only about 5 C, and passing snow showers that left slight accumulations in shaded spots. By evening it was clear and quite cold at around -4 C. We are expecting a slow moderation of this late winter pattern towards full-on spring warmth late in the week.

Tuesday, 13 April, 2021

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 13 to 19 April 2021 --

-- Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg below normal values.
-- Rainfall will average 10 to 25 per cent of normal values, quite dry in general, especially eastern counties.
-- Sunshine will average near normal or perhaps slightly below in parts of the west. Winds will generally be rather light through this interval, nights generally calm.


FORECASTS

TODAY will become partly cloudy with just a few isolated showers in the north. One or two could become a bit heavier but amounts will be slight in general. Highs 11 to 13 C as temperatures continue to recover.

TONIGHT will bring some clear intervals and slight frosts are likely, lows -2 to +3 C.

WEDNESDAY will be sunny with cloudy intervals and light winds, highs 11 to 14 C.

THURSDAY will become partly cloudy with lows -1 to +3 C and highs 11 to 15 C.

FRIDAY and SATURDAY may have more cloud as a weak Atlantic front combines with some cloud rotating around the high pressure area from northern France and the combination will lead to almost totally overcast skies with perhaps a few breaks in the east mainly, the risk of some light rain in western counties at times but this may amount to very little. Lows near 4 C and highs 9 to 12 C.

After this front breaks up another interval of rather bland weather will set in around Sunday and last for perhaps a week or more. There will likely be a slow warming trend although coastal areas may see local sea breeze cooling if winds acquire much of an easterly component. I wouldn't be too surprised if this eventually turns into a warmer spell but the improvements will be quite gradual. Total rainfalls this month are not likely to be very great but some areas are using up soil moisture that accumulated in wetter months recently. Spring blooming has no doubt been quite slow with the colder than average weather but it should pick up to a more normal pace now.

My local weather on Monday continued rather cold and there was a snow shower during the late afternoon, after highs had reached about 7 C. Much warmer weather is going to develop over all western regions of North America as a large ridge is building in the upper atmosphere, highs of 20 to 25 C are predicted for us later in the week. Further east the opposite trend is developing after a warmish start to April, turning colder in stages for eastern regions of North America.

Thursday, 15 April, 2021

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 15 to 21 April 2021

-- Temperatures will average about 1 deg below normal values.
-- Rainfall will average 25 to 50 per cent of normal, driest in Leinster and east Munster.
-- Sunshine will average a little below average with cloudy skies prevailing this weekend in particular.
-- Winds will pick up a bit from current light and variable regime to moderate southerlies, then back to a more variable regime middle portions of next week.


FORECASTS

TODAY will be mostly sunny with light winds, highs 12 to 15 C.

TONIGHT will be clear with increasing high cloud in parts of the west and south, lows -2 to +3 C. Slight frosts may occur in parts of Leinster and Ulster.

FRIDAY will have variable amounts of cloud, mainly higher based types in the east allowing some bright spells to continue, lower bases near Atlantic coasts with occasional light rain possible by later in the day. Highs 11 to 14 C.

SATURDAY will see more widespread rain although amounts only 3-7 mm in most areas, and some dry intervals likely. Lows near 7 C and highs near 13 C.

SUNDAY will also be mostly cloudy with occasional light rain, lows near 7 C and highs 12 to 14 C. If any heavier bursts of rain develop it would likely be near the northwest coasts.

MONDAY will start out overcast with light rain or drizzle, with a shift in winds to northwest around mid-day, followed by partial clearing. Rather cool, lows near 5 C and highs 11 to 13 C.

TUESDAY to THURSDAY of next week should be mainly dry and partly cloudy, possibly sunny for longer intervals around Wednesday. Highs will return to about the mid-April normal values of 14 to 16 C. Slight frosts may occur at night.

Beyond that, a slightly cooler trend is likely again with some further light rainfalls.

My local weather is warming up nicely, under very clear skies all day we got up to about 17 C. Looking for the first real warmth of the year tomorrow and Friday (low 20s). Snow has retreated out of the town altogether now, aside from a few piles from plowing operations, and is patchy on hills up to 1500m, disappearing gradually above that. Not much runoff as the snow is sublimating faster than it can melt.

Saturday, 17 April, 2021

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 17 to 23 April 2021

-- Temperatures will average near normal values, to about 1 deg below normal.
-- Rainfall will average perhaps 25 per cent of normal in some parts of the west but less elsewhere.
-- Sunshine will average near normal values despite a lot of cloud until Monday. Improvements will follow.
-- Winds will remain quite light for most places, sometimes moderate easterly later next week.


FORECASTS

TODAY will be rather cloudy in the west, to partly cloudy east, and some sunny breaks are possible in Leinster and parts of Ulster. Patchy light rain will return after drying up overnight, but amounts of 1-5 mm mainly in western counties won't be very heavy at all. Highs 11-14 C.

TONIGHT will become more overcast with the patchy light rain continuing a slow spread further east, lows near 6 C.

SUNDAY will be cloudy with a few brighter intervals, and more of the patchy light rain, once again looking to be held down to 2-7 mm amounts, from east to west. Highs 11-14 C, but that's rather cool for this stage of April.

MONDAY will be more overcast with perhaps lower cloud ceilings for a time especially over coastal areas, and some light rain or drizzle. It will feel rather cool with temperatures steady around 10 to 12 C.

TUESDAY will see a slow clearing trend in north to northeast winds, lows near 6 C and highs 11 to 13 C.

WEDNESDAY to at least FRIDAY are likely to be dry and partly cloudy days with a moderate east to northeast breeze at times, perhaps cooling the eastern third of the country to 11-13 C while allowing regions further inland and in the west to warm to about 14-16 C. Nights will become cooler again with scattered light frosts possible. This pattern is now looking like it wants to lock in for a while with a reload of the colder variety of northeast flow similar to what happened around Easter Monday, occurring some time towards the end of the month. Timing is very uncertain in these blocking patterns, but the general idea would be a continued rather bland weather pattern with limited amounts of rainfall.

My weather remained quite amazing for this time of year with sunshine and highs in the low to mid 20s all over the province. This may continue for a while with reloads from the north starting new cycles of warming every so often, and while the dry spell will be welcome for many reasons, it does pose a danger of an early forest fire season once the now fairly normal late snow pack disappears from higher elevations.

Monday, 19 April, 2021

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 19 to 25 April 2021 --

-- Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg below normal values.
-- Rainfall will amount to 25 per cent of normal, mostly during today and tonight.
-- Sunshine will improve later in the week and could reach above normal totals eventually.
-- Wind speeds will continue quite low, sometimes moderate easterly.


FORECASTS

TODAY will be overcast and rather misty in light rain or drizzle, eventually reaching any areas that have stayed dry, but amounts will only be in the 5-10 mm range. Rather chilly for this time of year, with highs 10-13 C.

TONIGHT will continue overcast with light rain or drizzle more intermittent after midnight, lows 6 to 8 C.

TUESDAY will see a slow clearing trend from north to south, with some patches of drizzle lingering across the inland central and southern counties in the morning. Highs 11 to 14 C.

WEDNESDAY will bring more sunshine than cloud, in light but chilly easterly breezes. Lows 2 to 5 C and highs 11 to 15 C, mildest in the west.

THURSDAY and FRIDAY will continue partly to mostly sunny and rather cool in eastern counties, more seasonable in the west though, lows 1 to 4 C with patchy light ground frosts, and highs 11 to 16 C.

This rather sluggish pattern will likely persist through next weekend with little change expected in the weather until some time middle to end of the following week, when another cooler air mass pushes in from the northeast while Atlantic lows finally begin to assert some influence; gradually this will lead to intervals of warmer weather although unsettled at times.

My local weather started out clear and sunny with warm temperatures again, highs near 23 C, then a front pushed in from the northeast and stirred up some strong gusts from the northwest, eventually settling into the northeast as colder air from Alberta replaces this warm spell, but we only get one day of shallow cool air outflow from that before the warmth returns here. The colder air is more concentrated on the eastern slopes of the Rockies where snow is falling tonight in Montana and Wyoming. There have been some severe wind gusts in eastern Washington state as this system intensifies while moving south of us.

Wednesday, 21 April, 2021

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 21 to 27 April 2021 --

-- Temperatures will average near normal or within 1 degree where slightly below normal.
-- Rainfall will average near zero to near the end of this period, picking up slightly in the days just after this weekly interval ends. A few parts of Ulster could see 25 per cent of normal rainfall by next Tuesday.
-- Sunshine will average 25 to 50 per cent above normal, except in some cloudier coastal locations.
-- Winds will continue to average only 20 to 40 km/hr at their peak and calm spells at night will be the rule.


FORECASTS

TODAY will see some better sunshine in some regions, mostly inland away from cloudier coastal areas. The east coast in particular may see more cloud than sun. Isolated showers are still possible but few places will get more than a trace of rain. Highs near 11 C on the east coast to 15 C near the west coast and in some parts of the inland south and midlands.

TONIGHT will see some clear intervals, fog or mist in places, and lows generally around 2 to 5 C. Isolated patchy ground frost may return.

THURSDAY to SATURDAY will be a pleasant sunny interval for most places, still the threat of some coastal cloud at times, and the same temperature regime as today although it could warm up by a degree or two for all regions. So expect highs 13 to 17 C for most areas, and overnight lows in the range of -1 to +4 C, with patchy frost in a few locations.

By SUNDAY and MONDAY a weak frontal trough to the north will be exerting some influence and spreading variable amounts of cloud into the region. It may lead to some drizzle in north coast Ulster at times, although Tuesday to Wednesday look a bit more unsettled in the north. Temperatures will be slowly edging back down towards the range of 11 to 14 C by day but nights will not get any cooler due to the increased cloudiness. Then it appears likely that another cold spell will develop towards the end of the month and temperatures could fall a few degrees further with highs possibly not far from 10 C by the last days of April into early May. This will all end up in a transitional scenario where the cold and blocking get pushed back into the far north by a more vigorous jet stream, some time around the first week of May or possibly a bit later. Some time around mid-May it could be quite a bit warmer than it has been this month.

My local weather on Tuesday was sunny with a slight increase in temperature again to highs near 17 C. Snow has developed in parts of the lower Great Lakes region, with forecasts of 15 to 20 cms in some places.

Friday, 23 April, 2021

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 23 to 29 April 2021 --

-- Temperatures will average near normal values in most areas, perhaps around 1 deg below normal in the east.
-- Rainfall will average near zero, with trace to 3 mm amounts possible around Tuesday of next week.
-- Sunshine will average 25 to 50 per cent above normal values, except in a few cloudier coastal districts.


FORECASTS

TODAY will feature mild to warm sunshine for most areas with highs 15-18 C, although cooler near the south and east coasts where some cloud may also form in sea breeze cooled areas, highs 12-14 C. Light winds inland and across the north but moderate southeast breezes at times in Munster and south Leinster.

TONIGHT will be clear with mist or fog patches in some areas, and isolated patches of ground frost likely, lows -1 to +4 C.

SATURDAY will be another mostly sunny and mild to warm day with highs 16-19 C, still a few degrees cooler near some coasts, and winds similar to today.

SUNDAY will be sunny with increasing cloud in some northern areas, highs 16-19 C and slightly cooler again near some coasts with sea breezes more evenly distributed around all coasts. Morning lows 2 to 5 C.

MONDAY will bring partly cloudy skies and slightly cooler temperatures in the 13-17 C range.

TUESDAY will be cooler with northerly breezes, isolated brief showers (trace to 3 mm potential) and highs near 12 C.

WEDNESDAY and THURSDAY will continue rather cool, partly cloudy to sunny skies, slight frosts returning at night, highs 13 to 16 C.

The further outlook calls for the dry spell to continue into May with a slow moderation in temperatures and there could be some fairly warm weather eventually, with less emphasis now on frontal rainfalls as the transition may take place with high pressure remaining in the general vicinity of Ireland. Some people probably need to see some rainfall so I will say we are not necessarily locked into this outcome.

My local weather was partly cloudy and showers stayed away, with just some virga clouds noted at times, and highs around 15 C.

Sunday, 25 April, 2021

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 25 April to 1 May 2021 --

-- Temperatures will average 2 to 3 deg below normal, although today will be a bit warmer than average.
-- Rainfall will average 10 to 20 per cent of normal values.
-- Sunshine will average 25 per cent above normal values. Winds will remain light until Tuesday then become more moderate in strength and mainly from a northeasterly direction (later backing northwest).


FORECASTS

TODAY will be sunny, hazy and warm with the sea breezes perhaps a bit less of a factor at least on the east coast, highs will reach 17-20 C in many areas even fairly close to the coasts today. (could be held down to 15 C at the shore)

TONIGHT will continue clear with a bit of cloud at times in the north, lows -1 to +3 C.

MONDAY will see a gradual increase in cloud from north to south, followed by a few showers in Ulster by late in the day, but staying dry elsewhere. Highs 14-18 C.

TUESDAY will turn cooler with occasional showers, one or two a bit heavier and possibly thundery. Lows near 5 C and highs 12-15 C in north to northeast winds 30-50 km/hr.

WEDNESDAY will be partly cloudy to overcast with isolated showers, cool, with moderate north to northeast winds at times, lows near 4 C and highs near 13 C.

THURSDAY and FRIDAY will continue similar with partly cloudy to overcast skies, risk of isolated showers, and highs near 13 C after morning lows around 4 C. Any location that clears during these nights could see frost but it may be too cloudy for widespread frost to form.

This cold air mass will try to hold on next weekend but somewhat milder air from the southeast will replace it for a time, before a front passes around Sunday 2nd May, with rain at times, then another cool spell will follow with another gradual moderation of temperatures in the first week of May. That may be the last of these cool spells as there are signs of a larger scale pattern change coming along after that one.

My local weather on Saturday was overcast and foggy with light rain or drizzle and calm conditions but only around 8 degrees C. This is the first rain we've seen here since the spring-like weather arrived a week ago.

Tuesday, 27 April, 2021

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 27 Apr to 3 May 2021

-- Temperatures will average about 3 deg below normal values.
-- Rainfall will average near normal or possibly slightly above if it rains significantly on Monday 3rd.
-- Sunshine will average only 50 to 75 per cent of normal values.


FORECASTS

TODAY will be noticeably cooler with a few showers, more frequent across Ulster and north Connacht, north Leinster and later parts of the midlands. Winds will turn more to the north at 30-50 km/hr, highs only reaching 11 to 14 C. About 2-5 mm rainfalls can be expected in most places, but a few thunderstorm cells could develop and give heavier amounts locally.

TONIGHT will stay partly to mostly cloudy and cool with a few more showers possible, lows 2 to 5 C.

WEDNESDAY will be partly cloudy and cool with showers, moderate north to northeast winds 40-60 km/hr, highs only about 10 to 14 C.

THURSDAY will be partly cloudy with showers and chance of a local thunderstorm, lows 1 to 4 C and highs 10 to 14 C.

FRIDAY will be partly cloudy to overcast and cool with isolated showers, lows near 2 C and highs 12 to 15 C.

SATURDAY will also be rather cloudy with a few sunny breaks, lows near 3 C and highs near 13 C.

SUNDAY and MONDAY there may be some locally significant rainfalls especially in parts of the south as low pressure develops to the west of Ireland but fails to move this colder air mass, so that the interaction will lead to low cloud, rain and drizzle, possibly amounts of 10-20 mm or more. Temperatures will be quite chilly if this low develops as expected, with no sunshine to warm the air, readings of 8 to 10 C could remain in place, but if the situation is less developed then temperatures would likely get into the 12-14 C range which is perhaps more likely in the north anyway further from the frontal zone.

Then it looks like this battle of air masses will continue for a while, with no really clear indication of when it will end (which it is going to do sooner or later) so that warmer air masses can push in from the southwest. It could take a week or two of occasional frontal systems and rainfalls with depressed temperatures for a while into May.

My local weather on Monday was partly to mostly cloudy but stayed dry, and temperatures were still on the cool side at around 10 C.

Thursday, 29 April, 2021

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 29 April to 5 May 2021 --

-- Temperatures will average 3 to 4 deg below normal values.
-- Rainfall will average 25 to 50 per cent above normal values, heaviest around Monday and again towards end of the interval.
-- Sunshine will average only about 50 per cent of normal values -- this is generally the sunniest portion of the year in many parts of the country with 5 to 6 hours sunshine daily, but this coming week, three will be a realistic target.


FORECASTS

TODAY will start out partly cloudy, any morning sunshine is likely to fade behind gradually spreading shower clouds, as scattered showers make their way gradually south and west, with one or two turning locally heavy with hail and thunder possible. Very cool for late April, highs only 9 to 13 C.

TONIGHT will see a return to partly cloudy and mainly dry conditions with scattered light frosts developing, lows -2 to +3 C.

FRIDAY will be almost a repeat of today with a gradual increase in cloud, scattered showers and a few thunderstorms, and cool temperatures, with light winds, the showers may not move along very fast once they develop over any given location, so some locally heavy downpours are possible. Highs 9 to 13 C.

SATURDAY will be a less unsettled but still quite cool day with light winds, some sunshine at times, isolated showers and after lows -2 to +3 C, highs near 12 C.

SUNDAY will become more cloudy during the mid-day and afternoon hours, leading to rain by late in the day. Lows near -1 C and highs near 11 C.

MONDAY looks rather dismal at this point with a well-organized low pushing in from the west, bringing some intervals of heavy rain and strong southeast winds, later turning westerly as the low tracks past central Ireland around mid-day. Rainfalls of 15-30 mm appear possible, temperatures will be held down by the cloud and rain to around 9-12 C.

OUTLOOK ... some improvements on Tuesday but staying rather cool, then another frontal boundary rainfall event around mid-week with similar outcomes to the first one (Monday), then another cycle of dry and unsettled beyond that although perhaps with warmer air slowly becoming part of the mixture of air masses. Some more average May weather conditions appear possible by the middle to end of the second week of the month.

My local weather on Wednesday was mostly cloudy but a bit warmer, with temperatures near 14 C locally, up to around 21 C in lower elevations around the region. This has led to quite a contrast in conditions, in the nearby Columbia valley trees are almost at full spring foliation now, while up in the higher country to our north and west, snow is still covering the ground. In our case we have just a slow partial spring developing with the snow mostly gone from the town, replaced by bears it would seem, we actually saw three of them today on a short trip, near the edge of town crossing the main highway, which led to both directions coming to a halt to let them across (it was apparently a mother and her two cubs but fairly well along so they must have been born last autumn and hibernated too). Anyway, there's something I'll bet you won't see but everything else about our weather and reduced social life under lockdown here seems about the same (bears hadn't heard about the requirements).

Saturday, 1 May, 2021

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 1 to 7 May 2021 --

-- Temperatures will average 3 to 5 deg below normal values.
-- Rainfall will average 25 to 75 per cent above normal.
-- Sunshine will average about half of normal values. It will become very windy at times.


FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly cloudy with isolated showers becoming more widespread by mid-day. Once again, one or two of these could be locally heavy with hail and thunder. Highs 11 to 14 C.

TONIGHT will become partly cloudy with clear intervals, and frosty in some locations, lows -2 to +3 C.

SUNDAY will bring increasing cloud and outbreaks of rain becoming widespread by late in the day. Chilly with highs only 9 to 13 C.

MONDAY will be windy and cool with an interval of heavy rain (10-20 mm) followed by very windy conditions, partial clearing but squally showers developing in westerly winds of 70 to 110 km/hr. Strongest gusts late afternoon and evening near Atlantic coasts. Morning lows near 5 C and afternoon highs only 9 to 12 C.

TUESDAY will continue windy until mid to late afternoon with some moderation by then, as bands of squally showers continue, some with hail and thunder. Winds northwest to north 60 to 90 km/hr before the moderating trend. Lows near 3 C and highs only 7 to 12 C (coldest in Ulster, north Connacht, north Leinster).

WEDNESDAY and THURSDAY will continue unseasonably cold for early May and there could even be mixed wintry showers over higher parts of the north at times, while all regions will be subject to squally hail showers and some thunder. Highs both days only 7 to 12 C and morning lows -1 to +3 C. Winds northerly 40 to 70 km/hr with some lower speeds inland at night.

FRIDAY may see a brief slight improvement to partly cloudy skies and highs near 14 C, then the weekend of May 8-9 looks very wet and windy as another strong low develops and moves through the south. Temperatures may remain rather cold with this.

The week of 10-14 May looks cold at first with a gradual return to more seasonable temperatures and there could in fact be some warmer weather eventually by the middle of the month.

My local weather on Friday was partly cloudy and rather warm again with highs around 18 to 22 C around the region.

Monday, 3 May, 2021

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 3 to 9 May 2021

-- Temperatures will average 2 to 4 deg below normal values.
-- Rainfalls will average near normal to 25 per cent above normal (this is not a change by the way, some of the expected rain for the last interval fell overnight already).
-- Sunshine will be 50 to 75 per cent of normal values. Strong winds will peak later today and after that, generally moderate wind speeds can be expected most days.


FORECASTS

TODAY will bring some changeable and in some cases stormy weather, as showers and a few isolated thunderstorms move through the midlands into Leinster by mid-day, followed by a surge of strong westerly winds that will impact the west coast before noon lasting into the evening hours. With the low centre tracking southeast towards Mayo and then east through north Connacht into south Ulster later today, some areas in the vicinity of this track will experience a lull in wind speeds when the low centre is nearby due to a slack gradient there, but expect strong northwest winds to follow that. Further south, there won't be much of a break between several bands of strong winds in the 70 to 110 km/hr range, with a slow turning of wind direction from southwest to northwest. Galway Bay could see some elevated tidal levels at high tides and other exposed locations could have some overtopping and battering wave damage. These strong winds will tend to rush through central counties into the Dublin region by late afternoon and early evening. Temperatures will be steady in the range of 11 to 14 C before slowly falling later today except that north Ulster will stay in cooler air most of the day with strong east winds at times there. Rainfall will be largely confined to the east and the immediate vicinity of the low centre with 10-20 mm amounts possible, but isolated showers will develop in the evening strong northwest wind flow. With all of those changing details, some brighter intervals are likely especially near the south coast.

There is some chance of a squall line feature developing with today's active weather, if so it would be approaching Dublin around noon to 1 p.m. and moving through the southeast around 1 to 2 p.m. Watch for any discussion of that in the dedicated storm thread.

TONIGHT will remain quite windy especially near Atlantic coasts and over the Irish Sea with gusts to 120 km/hr in places. Passing showers could become rather squally and temperatures will slowly fall to around 5 C by morning.

TUESDAY will be partly cloudy with bands of squally showers in a northwest wind of 50-80 km/hr. Rather cold with highs only 7 to 9 C in the north, 10 to 13 C in the south.

WEDNESDAY will be partly cloudy to overcast with isolated showers in many areas but more active bands of showers with some potential for mixed wintry falls over higher terrain in Ulster and north Connacht. Lows near -2 C inland could bring scattered frosts. Highs 7 to 10 C in many areas, 10 to 13 C in parts of the south. Winds northwest 40 to 70 km/hr at times but not as windy as previous days.

THURSDAY has some uncertainty regarding the outcome of a frontal band of rain extending near but not necessarily all the way to the south coast, but most of the country will be staying in the same general regime with partly cloudy to overcast skies, chilly temperatures near 10 C after scattered morning frosts, and isolated showers. If rain does move in that probably won't affect many places away from the south coast.

FRIDAY and SATURDAY will come under the influence of another Atlantic low which is tracking in from the southwest, bringing rain and moderate southeast to south winds and slightly milder temperatures for a while, perhaps 12 to 15 degrees in the southeast, although tending to stay colder in the northwest where winds could be more northeasterly. Rainfalls of 10 to 30 mm are possible in this interval, but there is uncertainty in regards to details.

From about SUNDAY to TUESDAY 11th, another cold spell seems likely in a northerly flow behind the low just mentioned, and it will be quite variable sky conditions with scattered showers likely, temperatures not far from 10 C.

Somewhat warmer conditions are likely to develop after that with a faint promise of actual spring warmth by about the third week of May.

My local weather was pleasant on Sunday with sunny skies, rather breezy and around 16 C.

Wednesday, May 5, 2021

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 5 to 11 May, 2021

-- Temperatures will average 1 to 3 deg below normal values, somewhat milder around Saturday.
-- Rainfalls will average near normal values, most of the rain expected will be around Sunday-Monday.
-- Suinshine will average 50 to 75 per cent of normal, winds will be generally moderate.


FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly cloudy in most regions, somewhat more overcast in the north where more frequent showers are likely, and some of those could turn wintry on higher terrain. Elsewhere showers will likely be mostly rain with some hail and the risk of thunder. Amounts for most will be slight, 1-3 mm. Quite cool for early May, highs 7 to 10 C in the north, and 10 to 13 C in the south.

TONIGHT will continue partly cloudy to overcast with isolated showers, and scattered frosts where skies clear for any length of time, lows -2 to +2 C.

THURSDAY will be partly cloudy with showers, cool and breezy (northerly 40-60 km/hr), highs 7 to 12 C.

FRIDAY will be partly cloudy with only a few isolated showers, and longer sunny breaks for some, lows -3 to +2 C and highs 10 to 13 C. Rain will spread into the southwest by late afternoon or evening.

SATURDAY will turn somewhat milder in the southeast, with occasional rain and variable cloud cover, highs reaching about 14 C there. The west and north will remain overcast with outbreaks of rain developing, 5 to 10 mm likely, and highs 12 or 13 C.

SUNDAY will see similar conditions but rain will be more persistent and will slowly spread further east, 10 to 20 mm could fall especially in west Munster and Connacht. Highs 11 to 13 C.

MONDAY and TUESDAY will probably see a gradual cooling trend, the speed with which temperatures fall depends on whether the weekend low spins around a couple of times or keeps plodding along to the northeast, if it does the latter then cooler air can begin to spread back in from the north a little faster. Temperatures will be down at least a degree or two each day, and could be back to the current levels by Tuesday. Some showers are likely in north to northeast winds.

Around mid-week high pressure will build up and this could lead to sharp frosts at night with clearing skies, but days should be tolerable with the light winds and highs around 12 to 15 C. The guidance is a bit scattered on how fast this high breaks down and there could be several dry days or possibly a return to rain by about Friday into Saturday. The longer term looks rather variable with temperatures on either side of normal at times, but always with the threat of one more significant cold spell developing.

My local weather on Tuesday was partly cloudy to overcast, cool, with spots of rain and even a few soft hail pellets mixed in, although amounts were slight. The highs for the day were about the same as there, near 10 C.

Friday, 7 May, 2021

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 7 to 13 May 2021 --

-- Temperatures will be 1 to 2 deg below normal values.
-- Rainfall will be near normal to 25 per cent above normal in parts of the west and south.
-- Sunshine will be 50 to 75 per cent of normal values. Winds will be generally moderate.


FORECASTS


TODAY will be sunny with cloudy intervals, and only a few isolated showers mainly in northern counties. Becoming overcast by late afternoon in west Munster. Highs 11 to 14 C.

TONIGHT will become cloudy with outbreaks of rain spreading into the south and west, 10 to 20 mm likely. Winds increasing to southeast 40 to 60 km/hr, stronger gusts at times in west Munster. Lows 6 to 9 C.

SATURDAY will bring some further outbreaks of rain, then a dry interval is likely to spread into parts of the southern and central counties with a few brighter intervals, warmer than in recent days, highs 14 to 17 C. Some further rain is likely near Atlantic coasts and in north Connacht and parts of Ulster with highs 12 to 15 C there. The moderate southerly breezes will tend to die off gradually by evening.

SUNDAY will have variable amounts of cloud and frequent showers or intervals of rain, another 10 to 15 mm rain is expected. Still rather mild with temperatures steady in the range of 11 to 14 C. Some intervals of moderate southeast winds near south coast and exposed higher terrain.

MONDAY will be partly cloudy to overcast with showers, a few isolated thunderstorms and risk of hail, light winds as the low, while now almost over the centre of the country, weakens to a very slack gradient. Temperatures steady in the range of 10 to 13 C. Further rainfalls of 5-10 mm likely.

TUESDAY will turn a bit colder as winds start to turn more to the northeast, occasional showers or intervals of light rain, 3-7 mm on average, and temperatures steady 8 to 11 C.

From that point on, the unsettled weather will very gradually improve but only partial clearing is likely, which will prevent frosts from being very widespread as had been anticipated when higher pressure was expected to push in, now it looks like a rather slack gradient will continue but the full effects of the colder air mass will only be seen further north to northwest, however, it should be cautioned that we can't entirely rule out a return to the more significant cold pattern as this guidance is only moderately reliable with things grinding to a halt in terms of steering currents and large-scale ridges and troughs. The most likely longer term outcome is probably somewhat warmer than average weather for a while by the third week of May.

My local weather was bright despite a lot of higher cloud, and it was very warm, with a high near 24 C locally and closer to 29 C in nearby valleys. It felt a bit like summer for the first time this year.

Sunday, 9 May, 2021

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 9 to 15 May 2021 --

-- Temperatures will average near normal values, rather small range expected between daytime highs and overnight lows.
-- Rainfall will be near normal in parts of the central and inland southeast counties, to 25 per cent below average in the north and parts of the southwest.
-- Sunshine will be 50 to 75 per cent of normal, and winds will drop back into the light to moderate range.


FORECASTS


TODAY will be rather breezy at times with intervals of cloud and sunshine, more cloud over western counties with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. Rainfall amounts 5-10 mm, but 2-5 mm in parts of Leinster especially near the east coast. Highs 12 to 15 C.

TONIGHT will continue mostly cloudy with a few showers, 2-5 mm rainfall. Lows 7 to 9 C.

MONDAY will be cloudy with a few breaks, and showers will turn heavy in some central counties with isolated thunderstorms. Some heavy downpours are expected by afternoon in the inland southeast also. Highs 12 to 15 C. Rainfalls of 5 to 15 mm possible.

TUESDAY will be partly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms, heavier in the inland southeast than most other areas. Lows near 7 C and highs near 13 C. Rainfalls of 5 to 10 mm likely.

WEDNESDAY will be partly cloudy with showers less widespread, rainfalls only 2 to 5 mm on average. Lows near 6 C and highs near 14 C.

THURSDAY will become overcast and some light rain is likely starting from the northern counties in the morning and spreading further south, with cooler temperatures as the weak disturbance advances, temperatures near 13 C in the south and 10 C north.

FRIDAY will see some dry intervals and sunny breaks with a cooler overnight low of 1 to 4 C, daytime highs 11 to 15 degrees.

OUTLOOK ... Weather systems have slowed to a crawl but a more normal westerly flow is expected to kick in around next weekend, with a frontal system scheduled to bring some rain around Saturday, timing in these situations can easily change by a day or more though -- this rainfall will be accompanied by temperatures around 15 C. The week to follow looks changeable and near normal in temperatures.

My local weather on Saturday was overcast with a few breaks, after some early morning showers, and it has stayed rather cool with highs around 14 C.