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M.T. Cranium

Wednesday, 16 December, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 16 to 22 Dec 2020

-- Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg above normal but it will be turning colder at the end.
-- Rainfalls will average near normal amounts (now that we've had most of the current system's rainfall).
-- Sunshine will average near normal amounts.


FORECASTS

TODAY will continue quite breezy and locally windy, as the storm blows itself out over west Ulster and later over the Hebrides. Winds generally southwest to west in most parts, 50 to 80 km/hr, some higher gusts currently around north Kildare and parts of Meath, Dublin should settle back into that range too. Less windy (currently) Mayo and west Galway will see a gradual increase to westerly 50 to 80 km/hr as a stronger gradient reaches those areas. Some areas of showery light rain continue, especially close to the decaying centre of the low (now near south coast of Donegal Bay), and in parts of west Munster. Later on, there will be a few brighter intervals especially near the southeast coast and into the north midlands. Highs near 11 C.

TONIGHT will be partly cloudy to overcast with a few showers, lows near 7 C.

THURSDAY will be overcast, breezy and mild with 10-20 mm rainfalls setting in after mid-day, highs near 11 C.

FRIDAY will see intervals of heavier rain in parts of the east during the first half of the day, then a general cooling trend as winds veer more southwesterly in the 50-80 km/hr range, lows near 9 C and highs 10 to 12 C.

SATURDAY will be breezy and rather cold with passing showers, winds southwest 50 to 80 km/hr, lows near 4 C and highs 7 to 9 C.

SUNDAY will be breezy and cool with fewer showers, some longer dry intervals, and bits of sunshine possibly, lows near 4 C and highs near 8 C.

MONDAY a final Atlantic storm in the series will arrive over the south with rain and moderate south to southwest winds, temperatures 8 to 10 C. Further north, an east wind will be fairly cold with a potential for sleety mixtures to develop, temperatures 3 to 7 C.

TUESDAY a secondary wave may form behind the Monday system and that one could track into the southeast pulling the colder air further south, so that many places could see a sleety mix of rain, wet snow and frozen mixed precipitation. The main question about that will be intensity, just light falls with a dusting, or more significant coatings possible? We will be keeping an eye on how this develops (for the 22nd).

WEDNESDAY colder with passing wintry showers, winds north to northwest 40 to 70 km/hr, lows near 1 C and highs near 5 C.

THURSDAY (24th) will be a cold, fairly bright day with isolated wintry showers, likely some small accumulations of snow on higher terrain, lows near -1 C and highs 4 to 6 C.

FRIDAY (Christmas Day) will also be cold and there are hints in some guidance of an interval of sleet or snow developing. One scenario is that a weak front moving in from the Atlantic could run into the embedded colder air and rain might turn to wet snow. Another scenario is that the flow turns more northeast then easterly, with snow possible.

OUTLOOK is for whatever colder air masses are then available to deepen their grip for a few days, with high pressure likely to prevail, so cold and dry is the likely outcome after Christmas. It looks about five degrees below normal rather than any brutally cold 2010-type scenario but still cold enough for snow in any east wind streamers.

My local weather has seen our predicted snowfall materialize and about 10-12 cms has fallen so far with about the same due later today. Temperatures are near -2 C. The northeastern states are bracing for a heavy snowstorm (mixing with sleet near the large cities), 15 to 30 cm amounts are possible, locally 30 to 50 cm in parts of West Virginia, Pennsylvania, central New York state and parts of New England. This will be lasting into Thursday.

M.T. Cranium

Thursday, 17 December, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 17 to 23 Dec 2020

-- Temperatures will average near normal as a generally colder trend develops. The southeast could remain somewhat above average with parts of the north falling below average.
-- Rainfalls will average 50 to 100 per cent of normal, probably most places closer to the 100% top of the range, but there is some uncertainty about how much rain might fall later in the period.
-- Sunshine will average around normal amounts, possibly a bit above.


FORECASTS

TODAY will have some brighter intervals at times and it won't be all that breezy, but eventually a moderate southerly wind will set in with rain spreading into the west during the afternoon. Highs 9 to 12 C.

TONIGHT will have variable amounts of cloud with bands of showers following behind the initial rainfall band, about 10 to 15 mm is expected in total. Lows around 7 C.

FRIDAY will continue breezy and rather mild, with further showers, winds becoming southwest 50 to 80 km/hr, and highs 9 to 11 C.

SATURDAY will be partly to mostly cloudy with passing showers, moderate southwest winds, and a bit cooler with lows near 4 C and highs near 7 C.

SUNDAY will be partly cloudy and cool with isolated showers, still rather breezy at times, lows near 2 C and highs near 7 C.

MONDAY presents some uncertainties with low pressure (the same system that is bringing a snowstorm to the northeastern U.S. currently) arrives, and may track either close to the southeast or through parts of central Ireland on a northeastward track. This track will determine whether the outcome is a mild, wet and windy scenario for the south and east, with cooler temperatures but also rain further north and west, or possibly more of a wintry mix with only the southeast getting mild enough to stay in all rain. Watching this closely as model guidance is somewhat split on the exact details. Would expect temperatures to be in the 5 to 10 C range for most regions, but it could be colder than that in some parts of the north leading to mixed wintry forms of precipitation.

TUESDAY sees the colder air taking more control and if a second wave of this storm attempts to track into Ireland, that has a greater chance than the Monday portion to become a wintry mixture, as temperatures could be only in the range of 1 to 4 C in many parts of the country, with winds turning north to northeast. Some snow could be in that mix although sleet seems more likely at this point.

WEDNESDAY will become brighter but staying quite cold, with moderate north to northeast winds, and some chance of wintry showers forming in northeast winds over the Irish Sea and parts of the northwestern counties as well. Lows around -2 C and highs 3 to 6 C.

THURSDAY (24th) will be bright and cold with isolated wintry showers likely, a sharp frost followed by highs only into the 2 to 6 C range.

FRIDAY (Christmas Day) at this point looks very cold with some sunny skies but a risk of localized snow flurries or mixed wintry showers coming in from the surrounding seas. There is some uncertainty at this time range on details, winds could be backing around from northerly to northwest and then west, with an Atlantic frontal system trying to push somewhat milder air back in, but that could lead to some late sleet or snow lasting into part of the 26th. Temperatures look like they might be as cold as -4 C in the morning, to highs near 3 C (but it could be closer to 7 C in a few parts of the south and west).

The model guidance for the past day or so has been "all over the place" on details for the weather scenario between Christmas and New Years. Some model runs have brought in persistent cold and a threat of snow, others relent quickly from the cold at Christmas to milder days later as the flow becomes more westerly again. A lot of this is pushed on from the earlier uncertainty about the Monday (21st)- Tuesday (22nd) evolution, the colder that turns out, the more robust the later cold is likely to be. So these questions are linked and the forecast will depend on how the U.S. storm develops once it gets clear of North America by Friday into Saturday. (the low is presently south of New York City)

My local weather on Wednesday was overcast with occasional snow, and rather foggy as slightly milder air mixed in, bringing temperatures up to near 0.5 C, just mild enough to make some of the snow a bit damp. We have about 5 more centimetres accumulation for a total of about 20 now, looking very much like a Christmas card outside.

The east coast storm brought a nasty mixture of snow, sleet, freezing rain and rain to various parts of the heavily populated region between Washington DC and Boston, but it's all heavy snow further inland, with reports of 30 to 50 cms already on the ground, while it continues to snow hard in northeast PA, central NY and much of New England (late overnight there now). The snow may continue much of today in those regions so some very heavy falls are likely in some places. Closer to the coast in the larger cities (other than Boston which will see mostly snow), the precipitation has changed over to sleet or a cold rain in some places, and some suburban areas have icing problems. There are numerous highway closures in the region and dangerous travel conditions in general.

M.T. Cranium

Friday, 18 December, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 18 to 24 Dec 2020

-- Temperatures will average near normal values with a generally downward trend through the interval, ending up around 3-4 deg below normal by the 24th.
-- Rainfall will be near normal or slightly below in some places.
-- Sunshine will be near average in this cloudiest part of the year.


FORECASTS

TODAY will be breezy and mild with heavy showers advancing from current location (west Ulster through midlands to inland southeast) to the east coast by later this morning. Some clearing will follow that band with further lines of showers, generally weaker, following on in a south to southwest wind flow reaching 40 to 60 km/hr at times. Highs around 12 C this morning with readings of 9 or 10 C common by afternoon.

TONIGHT will be breezy with passing showers or intervals of rain, winds southwest 40 to 60 km/hr, lows 4 to 6 C.

SATURDAY will have variable amounts of cloud and passing showers, some heavy with hail and thunder possible. Winds southwest 50 to 70 km/hr, highs near 8 C.

SUNDAY will be partly cloudy, dry for much of the day with isolated showers mainly in northern counties, then rain will arrive by late in the day with gusty south to southwest winds developing. Lows near 3 C and highs near 8 C, temperatures steady overnight.

MONDAY will see strong winds and briefly heavy rainfalls, followed by partial clearing and a drop in temperatures from readings 10 to 12 C early in the day, to around 7 C. Winds briefly as strong as 70 to 110 km/hr in some parts of the south, central and eastern counties.

TUESDAY will see some dry intervals but an area of sleety light rain may edge into the south with snow on hills by afternoon or evening, winds northeast 30 to 50 km/hr, and quite cold, temperatures steady 2 to 4 C.

WEDNESDAY will become more windy with little change in temperature (2 to 4 C) and mixed wintry showers especially if any bands form over nearby seas and the Atlantic Ocean, in northerly winds that may be quite strong over exposed coastal north and west in particular, 60 to 90 km/hr in places.

THURSDAY (24th) will continue quite cold and bright with passing wintry showers in a northerly flow of about 40 to 60 km/hr, some variations to northwest winds at times may bring in bands of wintry showers from the Atlantic, morning lows near -1 C and afternoon highs near 4 C, feeling colder in the wind.

FRIDAY (Christmas Day) is likely to remain cold and dry in most areas with just a slight chance of isolated wintry showers, also a good chance of a sharp frost in the morning, lows near -4 C for Christmas morning, followed by highs around 5 C later in the day.

The evolution of the pattern beyond Christmas Day is somewhat uncertain but much of the guidance has two elements worth noting, a brief milder turn in west-northwest winds that could become quite strong at times either on the 26th or 27th (or both), then a much colder turn to follow that as arctic air masses to the north of a frontal zone and then begins to move south in considerable force after about the 28th, with the New Years period indicated as being particularly cold and wintry. Snow is definitely a strong possibility if these changes materialize since winds will often be from either the north or northeast over those days (28th into early January 2021). I am being cautious about this change as there may be some chance of the milder northwesterly version digging in and holding back the full push of colder air that is becoming available, as low pressure develops over central Europe and high pressure builds across the far north to provide a source for much colder air to descend into western Europe on the northeast winds that would develop between these systems. The hitch may be persistent troughs lingering across the North Atlantic forcing the colder air to waste time going around the long way where it gets modified to an extent that makes it just chilly rather than bitterly cold.

My local weather on Thursday was mostly cloudy but no further snow has fallen, and it was around -2 C. The recent storm that hit the northeast U.S. left behind a zone of incredibly heavy snowfalls (40.0 inches at Binghamton NY, which is a little over one meter). The coastal cities had more like 20-30 cms with a thaw-freeze cycle turning much of that to icy slush. The storm responsible is now south of Nova Scotia heading east, and it's breaking up into smaller substorms that will spawn two or three disturbances affecting your weather from Sunday night on. If the third of this series were to deepen south of Ireland on Tuesday night that could lead to snow in parts of Ireland so it's going to be interesting to watch how things unfold. The first segment of the old storm will break off rapidly and bring in a brief shot of milder air and rain Sunday night. The second segment at this point looks a bit anemic and may just wander off into France on Monday night. Then comes that third part -- and around then big changes starting to take hold in the polar regions (in the upper atmosphere) will be poised to interact with this energy and that will dictate what happens around Christmas to New Years.

M.T. Cranium

Saturday, 19 December, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 19 to 25 Dec 2020

-- Temperatures will average near normal or slightly below in parts of the east.
-- Rainfall will average 50 to 75 per cent of normal values.
-- Sunshine may manage to exceed the late December average by 25 to 50 per cent.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly cloudy with passing showers, some of them quite heavy especially in west Munster where they could be prolonged with hail and thunder possible. Rather blustery southwest winds at times, 50 to 80 km/hr. Highest temperatures around 9 or 10 C.

TONIGHT will see these showers beginning to die out gradually, with some clear intervals. If you have clear skies around sunset, check out the view of the Jupiter-Saturn conjunction which is almost at its closest point (low in the southwest). The overnight lows will be 3 to 6 C.

SUNDAY will continue a bit unsettled but with fewer and less intense showers generally, and some longer dry intervals may develop around mid-day. Highs near 8 C.

SUNDAY NIGHT into early MONDAY, rain and moderate south to southwest winds will sweep in as the remnants of the U.S. northeast snowstorm arrive, but all of the cold air that had to work with is no longer available, so it will be just a rain event in Ireland, with winds southwest 60 to 100 km/hr at times, temperatures peaking around 11 C in the early morning hours of Monday. Later on MONDAY, partly cloudy, breezy to windy, with passing showers and falling temperatures, reaching about 7 C in the afternoon.

TUESDAY will be a bright and cool day in the north, could turn overcast again in the south as a weaker component of the Atlantic disturbance moves by to the south, but there could be intervals of sleety light rain near the south coast, with temperatures in the range of 1 to 5 C in most places during the day.

WEDNESDAY will become breezy to windy and quite cold with mixed wintry showers likely, winds northwest to north at about 50-70 km/hr adding a chill to daytime readings only 3 to 6 C.

THURSDAY (24th) will continue bright and cold with bands of wintry showers expected near some coasts in moderate to strong northerly winds at times reaching 50 to 80 km/hr. Lows near -1 C and highs 5 to 7 C.

FRIDAY (Christmas Day) will have a frosty start in parts of the east and inland south, where morning lows could drop to -4 C. Variable amounts of cloud will follow, with isolated wintry showers possible but rather limited to high terrain in the north mainly. A rather strong westerly wind will develop later in the day pushing temperatures slowly back up towards 7 or 8 C in the evening hours. Light rain could develop near Atlantic coasts overnight into the 26th.

On the 26th and 27th weekend, it appears likely to be rather mild and quite windy as the colder spell from the north starts assembling itself over far northern latitudes and strengthens the frontal boundary between the arctic air and the milder Atlantic flow which will keep trying to maintain control over most of Ireland and Britain. This may persist even into the 28th according to some guidance, although there is still a fairly high chance that the colder turn will arrive on the 27th and deepen on the 28th. Eventually, the colder air seems almost certain to break through and dominate for a time around New Years, and some of the charts near the end of the model guidance (into early January) make it look like a battleground scenario will follow, where the Atlantic tries to push back at the cold air and runs into resistance, the result of which on past occasions (like New Years of 1979) has been a fairly significant snowfall across large parts of Britain and Ireland. So while there may be small amounts of snow at first with the colder spell expected just before New Years, there is the potential for larger amounts in January, word to the wise, be ready just in case.

My local weather has gone back to the light snow mode again, with about 3 cms so far since mid-day, and it was rather wet snow at first with temperatures at +1 C, now it's more of a dry powdery snow at -1 C. The northeast U.S. region spent the day digging out from the extreme snowfalls in some areas, or cleaning up the frozen aftermath of mixed precip that hit the coastal cities ... there's a few quiet, rather cold days ahead, then a fast-moving frontal system timed for about midnight Christmas Eve which will drop temperatures from near 15 C to -10 C within a few hours, along with a brief blast of sleet and snow on very strong west to northwest winds, so quite a disruptive event for anyone trying to travel on the 25th in that region. The New Years period is looking ominous for cold and snow as well in the northeastern states.

As we're into a fairly heavy lockdown mode in our region, I won't be travelling or doing much over the holiday period so the daily forecasts will probably continue more or less uninterrupted.

M.T. Cranium

Sunday, 20 December, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 20 to 26 Dec 2020

-- Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg below normal.
-- Rainfall will average 50 per cent of normal values, possibly as low as 25 per cent in the north.
-- Sunshine will average 25 to 50 per cent above normal, although some days will be overcast.

FORECASTS

TODAY will bring a mixture of cloud and brighter intervals with passing showers, mostly confined to west and north. Highs 7 to 9 C.

TONIGHT will become wet in the south and central counties, with rain becoming steadier towards morning, and temperatures will only fall a little in the evening before becoming steady 5 to 7 C.

MONDAY the rain (10 to 15 mm totals expected) will gradually push east with a moderate southwest to west wind turning more northwesterly, with partial clearing. Highs 8 to 10 C.

TUESDAY will be rather cold, bright across Ulster, north Connacht and north Leinster, and mostly dry there also, highs 3 to 6 C. Further south it will be overcast and some light rain is possible, with sleet or wet snow on hills. Highs 4 to 7 C in those areas. Light easterly winds will develop.

WEDNESDAY there is some risk of snow or sleet in the morning across parts of Munster and south Leinster, likely to be melting on contact except on higher terrain. Further north, although mainly dry, some streamers could develop from the Irish Sea as well as the North Atlantic, bringing some parts of Leinster and north Connacht mixed wintry showers. Winds increasing to northeast 40 to 70 km/hr, lows 1 to 3 C and highs only 3 to 5 C.

THURSDAY 24th will be a cold, bright day with northeast winds turning more northerly, which may keep any Irish Sea wintry showers off or near the Wicklow coast. Dry in many other areas but there could be mixed wintry showers in west Ulster and north Connacht also, in northerly winds 40 to 60 km/hr. Lows near -1 C and highs near 5 C.

FRIDAY (Christmas Day) will have a frosty start and some icy road conditions are possible, inland east and south in particular will be quite cold with morning lows -2 to -5 C. Thick frost is possible for some areas although rising temperatures after midnight in the west may remove that frost before Christmas morning. Some hazy sunshine later through increasing high cloud, then becoming quite breezy (westerly 40 to 70 km/hr) by afternoon and evening, highest temperatures will range from 9 C in coastal south and west, to 5 C in east Ulster and north Leinster. Windy with occasional light rain or drizzle by the night of 25th-26th, temperatures may peak around 9 or 10 C at some early morning hours then a slow drop in temperatures will set in, winds quite strong at times may reach west-northwest 70 to 110 km/hr.

SATURDAY (26th) will remain windy, any milder turn (which some guidance shows briefly) will end with passage of a cold front, but some guidance already indicates the whole day will be quite cold as winds become northwest then north 50 to 80 km/hr. Morning lows 3 to 5 C then afternoon temperatures similar or falling slowly.

SUNDAY (27th) to MONDAY (29th) is looking quite cold with the risk of localized snowfalls, whether of streamer origins, or small low pressure areas rotating around a larger low in Belgium and northeast France. These lows could contain mixed wintry forms of precipitation near sea level and snow for hills, as temperatures will be struggling to get much above 4 C anywhere (and could be colder than that for parts of these days).

The further outlook is quite uncertain at this point, this colder air will try to hang around for several more days but the Atlantic resumes its active storm track too, so a clash is possible, guidance is mixed as to where the rain-snow boundary will set up, but it could be at least through some parts of Ireland, possibly dividing the country into somewhat milder and continued cold zones at times.

There is plenty of potential for occasional light snowfalls in all of this, but nothing that yet shows a high probability of being disruptive on a larger scale. Watching it all carefully of course.

My local weather has brought a nice steady light snow since mid-day when it was overcast and 3 deg C. Now it's closer to -2 C with 5 cm of new snow topping up the rather frozen covering we had as of Saturday morning. Another 10-15 cm could fall before skies clear (hoping they clear by evening as I have had very limited views of the Jupiter-Saturn conjunction).

M.T. Cranium

Monday, 21 December, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 21 to 27 Dec 2020

-- Temperatures will average about 2 deg below normal values. It will be turning much colder near the end of this interval after an earlier cooler period around 23rd-24th.
-- Rainfall will average 25 to 50 per cent of normal, some precipitation will fall in wintry mixtures.
-- Sunshine will average near normal values.


FORECASTS

TODAY will bring a little further rain, mostly across central counties, then variable amounts of cloud with showers more isolated, as winds pick up slightly around late morning to afternoon, from a westerly direction. Highs near 10 or 11 C in the south, 7 C central, 5 C northern counties. Around 5-10 mm additional rainfall expected.

TONIGHT will become partly cloudy to clear in the northern and some central counties, remaining overcast in the south with another interval of light rain possible. Lows near -2 C in the north, +1 central, +4 C southern counties.

TUESDAY will be a cold and almost calm day with cloud spreading a bit further north to obscure sunshine after mid-day in the north. Some light outbreaks of sleety rain or mixed wintry precipitation will develop late in the day across parts of the south. Highs only 2 to 5 C north, 5 to 7 C south.

WEDNESDAY will start out with a light snowfall in parts of Munster and south Leinster, mixing with sleety rain near the south coast, leaving a coating of 1-3 cm in some areas (more likely inland and above 100m asl). It will likely stay dry north of about Clare to north Wicklow, except for any wintry showers that may form over east Ulster and parts of Mayo due to weak bands of streamers. These may move further south later in the day and affect the Dublin region. Winds will increase from light northeasterly to moderate north-northeast 50-70 km/hr, adding chill to temperatures that will be steady in the range of 2 to 5 C.

THURSDAY (24th) will see partial clearing from early morning, with morning lows near -2 C. Sunny with cloudy intervals during the day, except where bands of wintry showers form near east coast and north Connacht, west Ulster; local snowfalls on hills may amount to 1-3 cm in places although many areas will remain dry. A sharp frost is likely after sunset on Christmas Eve, following daytime highs of 4 to 7 C.

FRIDAY (Christmas Day) will start out frosty in parts of Leinster and Munster, east Connacht and east Ulster, where lows could be -2 to -5 C. Any frost further west will likely be removed before morning by a slight increase in westerly winds and cloud cover. Hazy sunshine will follow the frosts in some eastern counties, more overcast further west, but generally dry with moderate westerly breezes setting in. Highs near 4 C east to 7 C west.

SATURDAY (St Stephen's Day 26th) will become windy with temperatures peaking at a rather early hour (possibly during the night of 25th-26th) at around 7-9 C, then it will begin to turn colder in stages with winds northwesterly at about 70-100 km/hr and passing showers, becoming wintry on hills later in the day as temperatures fall to around 3 or 4 C.

SUNDAY (27th) and MONDAY (28th) are looking windy and cold with scattered wintry showers, many of them snow but a few of sleet or hail too near coasts, in strong northerly winds 60 to 100 km/hr, which will add quite a chill factor to temperatures barely above freezing in the daytime (1-3 C). Nights will not be exceptionally cold because of this constant strong wind, but could drop to -1 or -2 C inland.

The OUTLOOK calls for further wintry weather conditions towards New Years with a growing possibility of significant snowfalls, as low pressure areas begin to form in the broad northerly flow providing a focus for more organized bands of snow or sleet at times. Temperatures will be well below average around zero or +1 C in the daytimes and around -3 C at night. Some of the guidance suggests that the cold spell will dig in and persist for some time into January, and there are also some hints of battleground scenarios where Atlantic moisture over-runs the cold air across Ireland leading to more snowfall. Conditions could become quite harsh in isolated higher terrain with blizzard like conditions possibly affecting free ranging livestock. At the same time, I should underscore the fact that there is some uncertainty about details and it seems likely that conditions will be rather variable from place to place in this coming cold spell, not everyone is going to see the same amounts of snowfall for example.

My local weather was pleasant after the morning snowfall ended, with partly cloudy skies and a high near 3 C. We are expecting another round of mixed sleety precipitation from a low moving inland on Monday. That will quickly pass us and form a powerful storm in the plains states leading to blizzard conditions in the upper Midwestern states by mid-week, and a brief warmer spell for the east coast and lower Great Lakes regions. Temperatures may be as high as 15 C by Christmas Eve but the storm will pull down very cold air from the arctic and this will rush into the eastern states early on Christmas Day to drop temperatures to -10 C by mid-day, with brief winter storm conditions during the transition.

M.T. Cranium

Tuesday, 22 December, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 22 to 28 Dec 2020

-- Temperatures will average about 2 or 3 deg below normal values. It will be turning much colder near the end of this interval after an earlier cooler period around starting today.
-- Rainfall will average 25 to 50 per cent of normal, some precipitation will fall in wintry mixtures.
-- Sunshine will average near normal values.


FORECASTS

TODAY will be a cold and almost calm day with cloud spreading a bit further north to obscure sunshine after mid-day in the north. A northeasterly breeze will pick up in southern counties this afternoon. Some light outbreaks of sleety rain or mixed wintry precipitation will develop late in the day across parts of the south. Highs only 2 to 5 C north, 5 to 7 C south.

TONIGHT there may be wintry mixtures of sleet, snow and cold rain across the south, with the greater likelihood of snow on higher terrain and well inland from the coast. The northern counties will remain partly cloudy to clear and that will allow temperatures to fall back below freezing there, further south lows will be around zero C to +3 C near the south coast. By morning there could be slushy accumulations of snow in some parts of the inland south.

WEDNESDAY will see this mixture of sleet and light snow continuing in parts of Munster and south Leinster, mixing with sleety rain near the south coast, leaving a coating of 1-3 cm in some areas (more likely inland and above 100m asl). It will likely stay dry north of about Clare to north Wicklow, except for any wintry showers that may form over east Ulster and parts of Mayo due to weak bands of streamers. These may move further south later in the day and affect the Dublin region. Winds will increase from light northeasterly to moderate north-northeast 50-70 km/hr, adding chill to temperatures that will be steady in the range of 2 to 5 C. The wintry mix will end rather gradually across the south, by afternoon in most places, but not until evening in Wexford. Some significant snow accumulations are possible on hills in the inland south and southeast (up to 5-10 cms but rather wet and partly melting after falling).

THURSDAY (24th) will see partial clearing from early morning, with morning lows near -2 C. Sunny with cloudy intervals during the day, except where bands of wintry showers form near east coast and north Connacht, west Ulster; local snowfalls on hills may amount to 1-3 cm in places although many areas will remain dry. A sharp frost is likely after sunset on Christmas Eve, following daytime highs of 4 to 7 C.

FRIDAY (Christmas Day) will start out frosty in parts of Leinster and Munster, east Connacht and east Ulster, where lows could be -2 to -5 C. Any frost further west will likely be removed before morning by a slight increase in westerly winds and cloud cover. Hazy sunshine will follow the frosts in some eastern counties, more overcast further west, but generally dry with moderate westerly breezes setting in. Highs near 4 C east to 7 C west, 9 C coastal Munster.

SATURDAY (St Stephen's Day 26th) will become windy with temperatures peaking at a rather early hour (possibly during the night of 25th-26th) at around 7-9 C, then it will begin to turn colder in stages with winds northwesterly at about 70-100 km/hr and passing showers, becoming wintry on hills later in the day as temperatures fall to around 3 or 4 C. Some heavy rain turning to mixed wintry showers may develop in this strong northwest flow, the risk of wintry conditions will be minimal at first but significant by evening.

SUNDAY (27th) and MONDAY (28th) are looking windy and cold with scattered wintry showers, many of them snow but a few of sleet or hail too near coasts, in strong northerly winds 60 to 100 km/hr, which will add quite a chill factor to temperatures barely above freezing in the daytime (1-3 C). Nights will not be exceptionally cold because of this constant strong wind, but could drop to -1 or -2 C inland. At some point around Monday 28th a low may form in this strong northerly flow, reducing the wind speeds as the slacker gradient crosses northern counties, but increasing the risk of widespread sleet or snow.

The OUTLOOK calls for further wintry weather conditions towards New Years with a growing possibility of significant snowfalls, as low pressure areas begin to form in the broad northerly flow providing a focus for more organized bands of snow or sleet at times. Temperatures will be well below average around zero or +1 C in the daytimes and around -3 C at night. Some of the guidance suggests that the cold spell will dig in and persist for some time into January, and there are also some hints of battleground scenarios where Atlantic moisture over-runs the cold air across Ireland leading to more snowfall. Conditions could become quite harsh in isolated higher terrain with blizzard like conditions possibly affecting free ranging livestock. At the same time, I should underscore the fact that there is some uncertainty about details and it seems likely that conditions will be rather variable from place to place in this coming cold spell, not everyone is going to see the same amounts of snowfall for example. The latest guidance looks very wintry indeed at times in January, and there is no trend towards any fast return to milder Atlantic-dominated regimes, in fact what seems more likely is a second strong northerly setting in around 4th January.

My local weather brought 5-10 cm wet snowfalls during the day and it has turned quite foggy with temperatures falling slightly this evening to -1 C. A strong low has moved right along the border and was overhead a few hours ago, and has now reached western Montana. Fairly soon it will be out into the northern plains states leading to blizzard conditions there and in some parts of the Canadian prairies too. Much milder air is being pulled in from Texas and this will overspread most of the eastern half of the U.S. until late Christmas Eve when the low will be over the Great Lakes, and a secondary low forms on the cold front. There will be very windy weather with a sharp temperature drop for the Christmas morning weather across the eastern U.S., brief rain, thunderstorms, sleet and snow bands in succession as temperatures are forecast to drop from near 15 C to -10 C in a matter of just a few hours. Heavy lake effect snowfalls will hit some parts of the Midwest and New York state, south-central Ontario.

M.T. Cranium

Wednesday, 23 December, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 23 to 29 Dec 2020

-- Temperatures will average about 3 deg below normal values.
-- Rainfall (or liquid equivalent of wintry showers) will amount to 50 per cent of normal values.
-- Sunshine will be near or slightly above normal.


FORECASTS

TODAY ... the cold and at times sleety rain will continue with further outbreaks of wet snow likely on higher terrain, with a trend for the rain-snow line to come down slightly in elevation by mid-day as somewhat colder air works into the northeast flow. Temperatures will be steady around 3 to 6 C, falling at times to 1-2 C where snow is falling. Far northern regions will remain dry and some sunshine will get through the clouds at times there. Winds will increase somewhat to northeast 50 to 70 km/hr. There could be some streamers forming over the Irish Sea with mixed wintry showers, at first these may blend into the larger precipitation event, but when that pulls away the streamers may continue or even grow a bit more organized. Other bands of mixed wintry showers may develop from the Atlantic Ocean into north and west Connacht.

TONIGHT ... many areas will clear out and turn quite cold, but a few wintry showers may persist especially in the southeast and over higher ground this may lead to 1-3 cm snow accumulations. Lows -2 to +2 C. Moderate northeast winds will prevent temperatures from falling much further despite any clearing.

THURSDAY (24th) ... Partly cloudy to sunny depending on how much cloud spreads into some eastern and northwestern counties from weak streamer activity or just dry cloud forming in the marine modified layers of the cold air, which will produce highs of only 3 to 6 C. Any localized wintry showers are likely to be brief and light in their precipitation amounts.

FRIDAY (Christmas Day) ... A sharp frost will develop over eastern and some inland southern counties, lows could reach -4 or -5 C in some areas. Cloud and a bit of a westerly breeze will inhibit frost formation elsewhere, lows may be closer to zero C. The daytime will have increasing amounts of high then mid-level cloud, the sun may be dimly visible through those layers by mid-day with a solar halo possible. Some frost will be persistent and only dissipate around late morning. Considerably milder in the north and west by late afternoon and evening in a moderate southwest wind of 50 to 70 km/hr. Highs near 4 C east to 9 C west.

SATURDAY (26th) ... Becoming very windy with occasional rain, temperatures steady 8-10 C for the first part of the day then slowly falling to around 4 C by late afternoon. Winds westerly 60 to 100 km/hr.

SUNDAY (27th) ... Windy and cold with passing wintry showers, risk of some accumulations of snow on hills. Lows near -2 C and highs near 5 C. An interval of sleet or wet snow is likely when low pressure moves through later in the overnight hours (27th-28th).

MONDAY (28th) ... Windy and cold with snow, sleet or mixed wintry showers, some accumulations are possible but near sea level it's likely to keep changing back and forth from rain to snow and sleet. Amounts not too great, around 5 mm liquid which can amount to 5 cms of snow on hills. Temperatures steady in the range of 1 to 4 C.

OUTLOOK ... The details keep changing slightly but each model run we see now has plenty of cold air and very little mild influence, although it's not a 2010 scenario quite yet, the air masses are somewhat less intense and will be over the North Atlantic longer (in 2010 winds were so strong at times that the very cold air rushed from Greenland to Ireland within a day or so, in this case, it's more like a source in the higher latitudes of the open ocean and a three day journey, so that leads to greater modification). At any point there could be a more severe wintry interval coming along in this pattern, as long as it persists and doesn't revert to the westerly zonal sort of regime we were in most of this past month. So in general, would expect a lot of marginal wintry showers through the second week of the forecast period and perhaps well into January, with a risk of colder weather and accumulating snow. Conditions are likely to be quite harsh on higher terrain especially in open country.

My local weather finally cleared up and gave us that long-awaited view of the planetary conjunction, the only drawback was a very cold wind at -12 C under clear skies, after a day that wasn't overly cold in sunshine, around -1 to -3 C. The freeze-thaw cycle has turned slush into ice all over the region, ski conditions in the alpine may be tolerable but the snow in town is largely frozen over, at a depth of about 15 cms. If you have clear skies in any part of Ireland this evening (most likely in the north), besides the planetary conjunction you'll have a good view of the half moon passing close to Mars (look high in the southeast for that, the Jupiter-Saturn event is in the sunset portion of the sky -- would not say that I saw one single star but could make out the two of them, and Saturn is quite a bit less prominent than Jupiter, if you're looking at twilight you might only see Jupiter at first, Saturn is off to its right but certainly within the apparent distance of a crescent moon's bright area).

M.T. Cranium

Thursday, 24 December, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS continue about the same, average temperatures will be 2-4 deg below normal values, rainfall will be about half of normal and some of the precipitation will take wintry forms, sunshine a little above normal with the colder weather.


FORECASTS

TODAY will be bright and cold, with a moderate northerly wind of 40 to 60 km/hr. Some bands of sea-effect showers will form, moving in from the North Atlantic into Connacht and the midlands. As they get further inland and encounter higher terrain, some will begin to drop local sleet or snow, but amounts will be small. Shower activity over the Irish Sea may remain largely offshore but occasionally may move into coastal Wicklow and Wexford. Any that can climb up the east slopes of the Wicklow hills would likely turn to snow, if they can get that far west. Highs today will be in the range of 4 to 7 C, colder values inland north.

TONIGHT will see a widespread frost although it may not last until Christmas morning in parts of the west as cloud increases there, but otherwise lows could fall to the range of -5 to -2 C.

CHRISTMAS DAY will begin rather calm and frosty in the east and some parts of the midlands, inland south. It will likely warm up a bit faster in the west and north, eventually reaching 8-9 C there while further east highs of 4-6 C are more likely, but temperatures will be slowly rising by the evening hours in all areas, as a band of light rain moves down from the northwest.

SATURDAY 26th (St Stephen's Day) will be a windy and briefly milder day with the highest temperatures of 9 to 11 degrees occurring either in the late overnight or morning hours, with a gradual drop back to colder values (5 to 8 C) by afternoon and evening. Some outbreaks of rain are likely (5-15 mm) with winds westerly 60 to 100 km/hr.

SUNDAY 27th will turn considerably colder with mostly cloudy skies, a few breaks in the overcast here and there, and scattered wintry showers that may begin to drop small accumulations of snow mostly on hills at first, as temperatures will be steady in the 1 to 4 C range most of the day. Quite windy, northwest to north 50 to 80 km/hr, adding a chill factor that will make those readings feel closer to about -4 C.

MONDAY 28th will bring the risk of sleet or wet snow especially over eastern counties. The strong winds will abate for a while, except near the western coasts which will remain in northerly winds of 40 to 70 km/hr most of the day, with passing wintry showers. Lows near -2 C and highs 2 to 5 C for most areas.

TUESDAY 29th and WEDNESDAY 30th will remain in a rather cold northerly flow turning somewhat more westerly later, temperatures generally near 4 C in the daytime hours and dropping to -2 C or so at night, and occasional outbreaks of wintry showers likely, with partly cloudy to overcast skies and moderate wind speeds.

NEW YEARS EVE (31st) may see more organized wintry outbreaks of sleet or snow as low pressure from the north drifts down across the country, and temperatures may fall a few degrees further to near 1 or 2 C daytime, which could mean small accumulations of snow in at least those areas inland and a bit higher than sea level. This situation is of course a week away and the guidance could change in either direction, at the moment I would say it's a rather marginal but potentially significant snow scenario.

The OUTLOOK beyond that into the first part of January 2021 sees very little change in the pattern, rather cold with ongoing risks of wintry mixtures including some accumulating snowfalls, and temperatures generally rather low although not into the "frigid" category.

For that you need to be somewhere between my place and the big winter storm hitting the Midwestern U.S., all regions between here and there are currently -15 to -30 C under clear skies (snow and blowing snow has moved through Minnesota and into Wisconsin and northern Ontario). Much milder conditions prevail east of a slow-moving front in the Ohio valley to the lower Mississippi; temperatures near 15 C and heavy rain are being reported and this will soon reach the east coast and major cities of the U.S. northeast. A sharp drop in temperatures is coming tonight about when Santa arrives there (how he gets to travel and we don't is another story for another day).

M.T. Cranium

Friday, 25 December, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Rather cold with a mixture of cloud and brighter intervals, winds generally light westerly increasing this afternoon slightly to 30-50 km/hr. Highs near 6 C east to 10 C west.

TONIGHT ... Becoming rather windy with intervals of light rain, winds westerly 40 to 70 km/hr, temperatures steady in the range of 6 to 8 C east, 8 to 10 C west.

SATURDAY 26th ... Storm "Bella" will set in with a strong westerly wind reaching 70 to 110 km/hr at times, temperatures will peak at about 11-12 C around late morning or noon before starting a slow decline (more evident in the north), with some intervals of heavy rain and squally conditions at times by late afternoon.

SUNDAY 27th ... Much colder with strong northwest winds continuing, 50 to 80 km/hr with higher gusts in exposed western counties, passing showers becoming increasingly mixed and wintry especially over higher parts of the north where snow may begin to accumulate. Morning lows near 2 C and afternoon highs only 4 to 6 C, feeling closer to the -2 to +1 range in the wind.

MONDAY 28th ... Although winds may drop off slightly in the east, it will remain very windy and cold further west, with more of a northerly direction, at 70 to 100 km/hr. Wintry showers or intervals of sleet, snow accumulating on some hills, temperatures steady 1 to 3 C.

TUESDAY 29th ... Cold and breezy with passing snow showers, some mixing may occur at sea level especially near the Atlantic, but with temperatures in the range of -1 to +3 C snow could accumulate in some fairly low elevations. Winds north backing to northwest 40 to 70 km/hr.

WEDNESDAY 30th ... Partly cloudy to overcast, continued quite cold, isolated wintry showers likely, lows near -3 C and highs near 4 C.

NEW YEARS EVE into NEW YEARS DAY will bring an interval of sleet and snow, some accumulations of 1-3 cm are possible, watching this for any intensification, but with temperatures generally close to freezing, heavier snow accumulations are possible on higher ground at least.

OUTLOOK ... Continued very cold for several more days to a week at least in January 2021, with risks of snow especially around the 4th-5th which some guidance advertises could turn very wintry.

My local weather on Christmas Eve (still before midnight here) is clear and cold with a temperature of about -15 C. The daytime was bright and cold too with highs near -5 C. It looks like a white Christmas although no new snow expected and the snow on the ground is frozen from top to bottom after numerous freeze-thaw cycles in the past week or two. We only have to drive 10 kms down the hill to find green grass and bare ground, the snow all melted down by the Columbia River last week. But in this cold weather the ground there is frozen despite looking much like it did in November.

Best wishes to all readers and weather forum participants for Christmas and the new year, hoping things get back to some semblance of normalcy soon, so hang in there.

M.T. Cranium

Saturday, 26 December, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 26 Dec 2020 to 1 Jan 2021

-- Temperatures will average 2 to 4 deg below normal values.
-- Rainfall will average 50 to 75 per cent of normal with some taking wintry forms.
-- Sunshine will average near normal for late December.
-- It will often be quite windy especially near the Atlantic coasts.


FORECASTS

TODAY will be windy with occasional rain, becoming rather heavy at times by afternoon and evening. Winds southwest to west 60 to 100 km/hr, except higher gusts at times near Atlantic coasts. About 5-15 mm rainfalls are expected. Some squally showers are likely by late afternoon and evening. Temperatures will be highest around late morning or mid-day (11-12 C) and will start to fall gradually thereafter.

TONIGHT will continue windy with passing showers, becoming wintry on higher terrain in the north. Winds westerly to northwesterly 50 to 80 km/hr. Lows 2 to 5 C.

MONDAY will be windy and cold, with the strongest winds near Atlantic coasts where northwest gales 70 to 110 km/hr are likely. Somewhat slacker winds will develop over the east as low pressure drifts down from the north, for some parts of the day winds may fall below 40 km/hr as a result. Scattered wintry showers will be largely rain or hail near sea level, sleet or snow on higher terrain. Temperatures steady in the range of 2 to 5 C.

TUESDAY will also be quite windy and cold, with the stronger winds returning to all regions as low pressure drifts away to the southeast. Bands of wintry showers may begin to drop sleet or snow on lower elevations as temperatures fall slightly to the 1 to 4 C range. Winds northwest 40 to 70 km/hr with some higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY and THURSDAY will continue cold, but not as windy, with wintry showers more isolated, and some longer bright spells. The clearer skies will allow overnight lows to fall below freezing, lows near -2 C and highs 2 to 5 degrees both days. Winds northwest 30 to 50 km/hr.

By late THURSDAY (New Years Eve) into FRIDAY (New Years Day), occasional light snow and very cold, lows overnight near -4 C and highs 1 to 4 C.

This cold spell shows little sign of weakening, or becoming more intense either, so we're stuck with marginal conditions for snow that will probably only deliver very much lying snow to hills, but there will be times when sleet or snow fall at lower elevations with a tendency to melt on contact near sea level.

My local weather on Christmas Day was overcast with a bit of fog from a low cloud ceiling barely above our elevation here, and a bit of drizzly light snow towards evening, temperatures on the cold side at -7 C. The eastern U.S. have seen their predicted heavy rainfalls and strong winds, and are generally into the colder air masses now, with further sharp oscillations in temperature in the days ahead, looking like snowstorms might become a feature of the east coast weather after New Years.

bazlers

I think you may have missed a day chief.

M.T. Cranium

My apologies for the dropped day, think it was more of a wrong day label followed by blurring together of a whole string of rather similar days. But here's an updated forecast anyway with some new details from latest guidance.

TONIGHT will remain windy as temperatures gradually fall to about 3 C by morning, feeling more like -2 or lower in strong west to northwest winds 60 to 100 km/hr, with some higher gusts near Atlantic coasts. Occasional squally showers this evening, slowly moderating to passing showers that become somewhat mixed or wintry at higher elevations of the north and west by morning.

SUNDAY will be windy and cold with passing showers, some of them wintry especially over higher terrain where snow may begin to accumulate in places (mainly above 300m asl). Winds northwest 50 to 80 km/hr with some higher gusts in Atlantic counties. Highs 4 to 7 C, feeling like 1 to 3 C in the strong winds.

SUNDAY NIGHT into MONDAY MORNING, an area of low pressure dropping south across the Irish Sea may bring more organized bands of wintry mixed precipitation, it will probably be divided more by elevation than by region with some chance of lying snow at about 150-200 m asl by morning. Winds will remain strong northwest to north in the western half of the country, but will fall off to lighter values in the east as the slack pressure gradients near the low come into play there.

Later MONDAY the winds will pick up again in all regions, northwest to north 50 to 80 km/hr, so the afternoon will be windy and cold with passing wintry showers, again mixed by elevation, highs 4 to 7 C. Temperatures over higher snow covered areas could be considerably lower (1-3 C).

TUESDAY will be breezy and cold with passing wintry showers, lows near -1 C and highs near 5 C.

WEDNESDAY will be similar although with perhaps longer sunny intervals and more isolated wintry showers, lows near -2 C and highs near 4 C.

The New Years Eve into New Years Day interval will bring only slight changes with temperatures remaining in the same range (lows near -2 or -3, highs 3 to 6 C), some wintry showers more likely to be all snow moving through that period, as the marginal indicators start to edge more towards definite snow-friendly numbers, but even so a few locations near sea level would still likely see some mixing. Moderate northwest to north winds through this period.

Guidance for the period following New Years Day continues to be mostly cold and dry with higher pressure building up just to the north or northwest of Ireland. This argues for less widespread wintry showers but as winds turn a bit more northeasterly the possibility of some Irish Sea streamers comes into play, a bit too far out and indefinite to get very excited about that yet. The GFS model runs out to sixteen days and has nothing but colder than average temperatures indicated to end of its run (now 11th of January), on the other hand only one or two genuinely frigid days in that stretch, so would expect temperatures to average around 4 C daytimes and -3 C overnight, some individual days a bit lower than that. There's still plenty of time for an even more robust wintry set-up to develop in this generally favourable scenario. Hints of that come when a slight easterly is shown trying to get its act together around the 5th-7th of January.

My local weather appears to be quite cold with a bit of fresh snow, haven't been outside yet, going after I post this at least as far as the coffee shop down the hill. Stay safe and healthy.

M.T. Cranium

Sunday, 27 December, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 27 Dec 2020 to 2 Jan 2021

-- Temperatures will average 3 deg below normal values.
-- Rainfall will average 25 to 50 per cent of normal, and some of it will take wintry forms.
-- Sunshine will average 25 to 50 per cent above normal, although closer to average in western counties.


FORECASTS

TODAY will be windy and very cold with passing wintry showers, any snow accumulations will be either temporary or confined to hilly areas, but showers may take a variety of forms including hail, sleet and snow. Winds northwest 50 to 80 km/hr, except some higher gusts likely near Atlantic coasts. Highs 3 to 6 C, but feeling colder due to the wind chill factor (around -2 C).

TONIGHT some more organized areas of sleet or wet snow will move south into Ulster and parts of Connacht, Leinster, with some slushy accumulations of 1-3 cm possible. Continued windy in most areas with a few more passing wintry showers in west and south. Lows near 1 C.

MONDAY the area of sleet and wet snow will move further south, mixing with rain near sea level, but leaving behind some slushy accumulations in parts of Leinster. Snow will also accumulate on hills in all regions in passing wintry showers. Any temporary abatement of the strong winds near the low centre (over the Irish Sea during the morning half of the day) will be followed by resumed stronger winds that will continue uninterrupted elsewhere, northwest to north 50 to 80 km/hr. Highs only 2 to 5 C.

TUESDAY will gradually become a little less windy but it will remain cold with passing wintry showers, heavy at times on some hills in the west and north. Longer sunny breaks are also likely especially in eastern and southern counties. Lows near -1 C and highs 3 to 6 C.

WEDNESDAY will be partly cloudy with just isolated wintry showers, lows near -2 C and highs near 5 C.

THURSDAY (31st) will be partly cloudy to overcast with isolated wintry showers, possibly a more organized band of snow moving south during the night (after midnight mostly). Morning lows near -2 C and highs near 5 C.

FRIDAY (New Years Day 2021) will be breezy and cold with occasional light snow or sleet, lows near -3 C and highs near 4 C.

The OUTLOOK is for an interval of cold, dry weather that may persist (according to most guidance) for a week but there are some indications of a return to milder Atlantic driven weather systems as early as the 4th in some other guidance, so we're waiting to see if a new trend is emerging or if this contrary view fades back out of the picture again (which can happen in these long blocking episodes). I would repeat the earlier observation that this will be a prolonged spell of marginal (for snow) wintry parameters, certainly colder than average, but with snow rather hit or miss mainly due to the slightly less than ideal upper parameters; however, that will not rule out some snow in both northern areas and higher terrain, even if it doesn't happen everywhere.

My local weather on the 26th was overcast and somewhat misty with a few snowflakes but no real accumulations, temperatures near -5 C. Hope I caught all the days today, telling them apart is a bit difficult in these repetitive map situations.

M.T. Cranium

Monday, 28 December, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland


The trends remain similar to the past several days, colder than normal, precipitation mainly showery and not overly heavy, some sunshine in the mix.

FORECASTS

TODAY will continue quite windy, especially over the western coastal regions, with northwest to north winds of 60 to 90 km/hr adding a chill to temperatures in most places around 4 to 7 C (some outer headlands in the west will be a bit milder as this strong wind interacts with ocean surface temperatures around 9 or 10 C). Bands of sleety showers will continue in a few places, sometimes rather heavy locally, and tending to change to sleet or snow when passing higher terrain.

TONIGHT will bring some intervals of sleety rain or wet snow, continued quite windy, lows 2 to 4 C.

TUESDAY will be partly cloudy with isolated wintry showers, cold and while not quite as windy, rather cold in the breeze (northwest 40 to 70 km/hr). Highs 4 to 7 C.

WEDNESDAY brings a risk of snow or sleet, depending on the track of low pressure trying to bring back a bit of milder Atlantic air. Most guidance shows this low tracking southeast into Kerry and south Cork before sliding back into the Atlantic. Areas to the north of its track could see 3-5 cm snowfalls or mixed rain and snow near sea level, so the track is important, any counties to the south of the track will see a slight rise in temperatures to 5-7 C and a bit of light rain, but areas to the north will have temperatures close to 1 or 2 C and wintry mixtures. Winds will turn light easterly during this event before resuming the northerly trend.

THURSDAY (31st) will be a cold, partly cloudy day with isolated wintry showers, lows near -3 C and highs near 4 C.

FRIDAY (New Years Day) is likely to be very similar, with partly cloudy to overcast skies, occasional light snow showers, and lows near -4 C, highs 3 to 5 C.

The OUTLOOK seems to be trending more towards a cold regime continuing for quite some time, those hints of a breakdown have disappeared from the models that had them yesterday, and the main trend seems to be towards more of a cold easterly flow into the first ten days of January, which could be a bit more conducive for snowfalls especially in Leinster and east Ulster, but also could bring even colder temperatures that start to get far enough below freezing at night that some persistent frost could develop.

My local weather on Sunday was once again overcast with temperatures around -5 C. Like yourselves, we find ourselves in a rather repetitive weather pattern although it's a lot less windy here, and a bit colder which is not unusual given we are at a higher elevation than the highest peaks in Ireland. The weather in eastern North America is rather cold at present but will warm back up to the 10-15 C range before New Years eve, with only slight variations to follow as the storm track is setting up over the Great Lakes region for a while. It does start to look rather wintry in New England towards the second week in January.

M.T. Cranium

Tuesday, 29 December, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 29 Dec (2020) to 4 Jan (2021) --

-- Temperatures will average 3 to 4 deg below normal, with a generally colder trend through the period.
-- Precipitation will be fairly light for this time of year, but a portion of it will be wintry, so it may be significant more for disruption than moisture content.
-- Sunshine will average 25 to 50 per cent above normal.


FORECASTS

TODAY will continue quite windy although the stronger winds will begin to abate this afternoon and evening. Until then, winds northwest to north 50 to 80 km/hr with some higher gusts. Bands of showers will mix to sleet or wet snow on higher terrain, cold rain or hail at lower elevations. Highs 3 to 6 C, feeling more like -2 C in the winds.

TONIGHT will see partial clearing over the north and east, with a sharp frost likely, lows near -3 C. Overcast in the south and west, with some drizzle or sleet moving inland from the Atlantic late overnight, covering parts of south Connacht and west Munster. Lows around zero Celsius in this overcast area (+3 C outer headlands of Kerry, south Cork).

WEDNESDAY the band of precipitation may begin to produce snowfalls of 1-3 cm over parts of south/central Connacht, the midlands, and south Leinster, parts of inland east Munster. There is potential for this to increase to a higher amount and if I see justification for that I will update the forecast this evening. Even with this fairly small amount of snow, mixing with sleet and patchy freezing drizzle, roads may become icy especially untreated or lightly traveled routes. It will likely stay dry from around Dublin north into north Leinster and most of Ulster. Any change in the track or intensity of this system could bring snow further north however. Highs will be only around 2 C in many areas, light east winds to the north of the track of the low, and variable mostly westerly breezes in the milder sector, where temperatures (affecting most of Munster at some point if not all day) will reach 5-7 C with light rain.

THURSDAY will be back to partly cloudy and windy conditions with temperatures between -3 C for overnight lows and +4 C for daytime highs, scattered wintry showers are likely, along with fairly generous sunny breaks too.

(New Years eve around midnight it's likely to be -2 to +1 C, partly cloudy, a few wintry showers around)

FRIDAY (New Years Day) will also be partly cloudy and cold with scattered snow showers -- it seems like the freezing level will be very slowly descending to levels where snow could begin to fall at or near sea level, especially in any vigorous showers where the rate of fall doesn't allow time for the falling snow to melt. Lows near -4 C and highs of about 3 or 4 C.

The OUTLOOK continues to suggest a long cold spell with more and more anticyclonic and easterly influences, both of which would argue for slightly colder temperatures, and in Leinster, also more chance of significant snowfalls. I would say we're maybe one turn of the dial away from something memorable with this setup but on the other hand if the dial is turned the wrong way it could all end up seeming rather ordinary too. For winter weather lovers, at least we can say we're in with a chance this winter. And of course, probably 80% of memorable winter weather events tend to happen later than this, December 2010 was an anomaly in that regard. Late January to mid-March seems to be the part of the winter that produces more often than others, historically. It no doubt is related to colder ocean temperatures and the expansion of the arctic ice pack, but those are factors that have become weaker in recent decades, so we're fighting against the trends to get anything really memorable nowadays. (Late Feb 2018 showed that it can be done, however).

My local weather was a bit different on Monday, we had some glimpses of sun through variable cloud layers, and it turned a bit milder (high of about +1C) with a bit of wet snow in the air not leaving any accumulations but in general it became a bit more slushy at least on the roads. Rather wish it would dump some snow and turn colder if we must have winter, let's have the whole thing and not this pale imitation, possibly also what you've been thinking?

M.T. Cranium

Wednesday, 30 December, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 30 Dec to 5 Jan 2020

-- Temperatures will average 3-4 deg below normal values.
-- Rainfall will be rather slight and most precipitation that does occur will be wintry mixtures (amounting to 10-20 per cent of normal seasonal rainfall amounts).
-- Sunshine will be 25 to 50 per cent above normal except closer to average in the west.


FORECASTS

TODAY could still produce scattered outbreaks of sleety mixed precipitation, but two systems trying to produce this are both rather weak. The southern wave is moving through west Munster with light rain fringed by sleety mixtures that might coat some highways in the general area of Limerick to Waterford (and south into north Cork), but it appears that amounts may be trace to 1 mm at best. The mild sector of this disturbance is also weak and poorly defined but it has reached Kerry and brought temperatures there up to 5-8 C, this level of warming will perhaps catch some parts of southwest Cork before being pulled away to the south by this afternoon. Elsewhere, temperatures will be steady around 1-2 C. The northern wave in Ulster is bringing wintry mixtures to Northern Ireland mostly, and adjacent north Leinster and northeast Connacht, Donegal. Again, the main problem for this wave is a lack of energy and moisture, temperatures are conducive for wintry mixtures (0-3 C). The sea effect snow showers that might follow this system into west Ulster and north Connacht could be the best snow producer of this rather marginal day. Winds will pick up by mid-day to northerly 30-50 km/hr and stronger by afternoon, with the snow showers reaching parts of Donegal, Leitrim, Sligo, Mayo and possibly Galway.

TONIGHT will see some clearing and a reduction in the snow shower activity, very cold with lows near -3 C.

THURSDAY (31st) will be a cold, generally bright day with scattered wintry showers, some accumulations of snows on northern hills, and highs 3-5 C. New Years Eve at midnight, weather prospects are clear to partly cloudy, isolated snow showers, very cold, significant wind chill, temperatures -2 to -4 C.

FRIDAY (New Years Day) will be partly cloudy with isolated snow showers, lows near -4 C and highs near 4 C.

The OUTLOOK calls for a continuation of the cold spell with more of an anticyclonic influence, perhaps dropping overnight lows into the -6 C range. Daytime temperatures will remain about 2-5 C. Isolated snow showers are likely but mainly in streamers coming in from the Irish Sea, affecting mostly central Leinster. At first, nothing too heavy is expected, but the charts show this cold spell undergoing periodic reinforcements and there could be even colder and more severe winter weather in mid-January if the guidance proves correct.

My local weather on Tuesday was overcast and colder with temperatures stalled out around -5 C. Not much wind made this cold tolerable enough (for me at least). The eastern half of the U.S. is expecting a mild and rainy New Years eve into New Years Day with temperatures in the 10-15 C range. Any snow cover left from recent storms will be melting away and ski-ing conditions will deteriorate in New England. The weather is more or less ideal for western ski-ing resorts where they can actually open and serve customers (lockdown conditions vary considerably from state to state and province to province, we are in a relatively mild regime here in British Columbia so far).

M.T. Cranium

Thursday, 31 December, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 31 Dec 2020 to 6 Jan 2021


-- Temperatures will average 3 to 5 deg below normal values.
-- Rainfall will average about 25% of normal and some of that will be mixed wintry forms.
-- Sunshine will average near normal.


FORECASTS

TODAY will be cold and mostly cloudy with a few brighter intervals more frequent in the south and west. Snow or sleet may develop across parts of south and east Ulster, north Leinster this morning, then whatever is left of this weak disturbance may be more mixed in its production later in the day with rain showers more frequent in the mixture, snow retreating to higher elevations of Leinster. There may be some rather heavy rain showers by afternoon still with some risk of wintry mixtures developing. Winds increasing to northwest to north 50 to 70 km/hr in some exposed locations, although not that windy for most inland. Highs 3 to 6 C.

TONIGHT will see some isolated wintry showers in a partly cloudy to overcast northerly flow, lows near -3 C in some places, closer to zero C near coasts. Feeling colder in the 30-50 km/hr winds though.

NEW YEARS DAY will be partly cloudy with passing wintry showers, moderate northerly winds, highs near 5 C.

SATURDAY (2nd Jan) will be cold with some sunny intervals, isolated wintry showers, most likely in Ulster and north Leinster, and morning lows near -4 C, highs near 4 C.

SUNDAY (3rd) to about mid-week will be cold with northeast winds, some sunny breaks each day, but a fair amount of cloud generated from the cold air crossing both the North Sea and the Irish Sea on its way, which may also give rise to some local wintry showers near east coasts of both Ireland and Britain, with slight chance of some significant local accumulations, although everything remains a bit on the marginal side, which may change over any snow showers to sleet or hail and cold rain too. Many places will just stay dry anyway. Typical overnight lows will be down as low as -6 C in central and inland western counties, -3 C in the east. Afternoon highs 2 to 5 C., with winds generally in the 30-50 km/hr range, sometimes increasing to 50-70 km/hr near coasts.

The further outlook is for this northeast wind regime to give way to more variable conditions as the Atlantic wakes up briefly and tries to mix it up with the cold air, but eventually a new surge of cold air moves in from the north and that could be a bit colder than this first round we're going to see. Not carved in stone yet, but January could shape up to be quite cold and generally dry with slight risks of locally heavy snowfalls in a few spots. No really good indication as to when this might break down to a more normal Atlantic-dominated winter weather pattern, it has to be said that several memorable cold winters started out about like this and got colder in the second half of January and much of February, so if we're on that track, it would not come as a total surprise.

My local weather produced some snow (about 10-12 cm) earlier on Wednesday, and it was around -4 C.

Best wishes for 2021, it would have to be an improvement, you would think.

M.T. Cranium

Friday, 1 January, 2021

Forecasts for Ireland


The trends remain the same, 3 to 5 deg below normal in temperatures, fairly dry for most places, localized wintry showers tending to become more prevalent in Leinster towards the end of the week, and probably a bit more sunshine than is normally the case at this time of year.

With it being New Years eve where I'm located, here's a bit of a blog format discussion, as the outlook is fairly similar to past few days ...

High pressure is starting to build up closer to Ireland and is also connecting to other highs in northern Scandinavia and Russia. This will mean that the winds will slowly turn more to the northeast, settling in that direction (east to northeast) by about the end of this coming weekend. The weather will remain largely dry with a few weak outbreaks of mixed wintry showers each day. Today's batch will probably stay mainly over northern counties. Tomorrow could see a bit more widespread activity in the morning, as a weak trough moves south. By Sunday, the only potential for localized wintry showers will be sea effect streamers from the Irish Sea. One or two heavier snow showers are possible near the Wicklow mountains and south Dublin.

By about Tuesday the east-northeast flow could become strong enough and cold enough to produce some significant snow, but then this pattern will break down for a couple of days with low pressure heading south from near Iceland, to produce a reinforcement of the cold spell, and that looks fairly potent for the second week of January. Temperatures throughout this period will stay in a similar range, daytime readings of 3 to 6 C will be typical, and overnight lows of -4 to -1 C. Places with a lot of exposure to the sea could run a degree or two higher.

As with the past few forecast discussions, the situation continues to hold some promise (or threat if you prefer) of significant snowfalls and more severe cold, but the trends are just inching towards that rather than showing anything as dramatic as the signals we got in advance of the 2010 cold spell or the late February snowstorm in 2018. I don't think anyone following the weather would be surprised if something more dramatic developed at some point in this extended cold spell, but still no really firm guarantees (at least from this source).

My local weather on New Years Eve has been overcast and quite cold with a few snowflakes in the air, no new accumulations today, and temperatures close to -10 C.

We'll return to the usual format tomorrow, if I survive that long into 2021.

M.T. Cranium

Saturday, 2 January, 2021

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 2 to 8 Jan 2021

-- Temperatures will average 3 to 5 deg below normal values.
-- Precipitation will be slight, confined to a few outbreaks of sleet or light snow, in most places 10 to 20 per cent of normal values.
-- Sunshine will be 25 to 50 per cent above normal, closer to 3 hours a day than the normal value of about 2.


FORECASTS

TODAY will start out rather cloudy, any remaining frost (in the southern inland counties mainly) will dissipate, but temperatures will be capped at around 4 to 6 C in a northerly breeze of 30 to 50 km/hr. A few sleety showers will move south through at least western and central portions, more isolated in the east, and these could produce snow on hills, but amounts will be slight.

TONIGHT will bring partial clearing and lows -4 to -1 C, coldest inland western counties. There will still be a slight chance of isolated wintry showers.

SUNDAY will have a mixture of cloud and sunshine, isolated wintry showers, and winds turning more to the northeast, rather brisk at times by afternoon (40 to 70 km/hr). This could promote some bands of mixed wintry showers from the Irish Sea into central Leinster, but upper parameters are a bit marginal for snow except possibly on higher slopes. Highs 3 to 6 C.

MONDAY will be partly cloudy to sunny, with isolated wintry showers, and moderate northeast winds, lows -4 to -1 C and highs 3 to 6 C.

TUESDAY will be partly cloudy with a few passing wintry showers in north and east, lows near -3 C and highs near 4 to 6 C.

Around mid-week, winds will return to a northerly direction and a fresh batch of cold air will sweep south with mixed wintry showers, still looking a bit marginal for full-on snow or wintry cold, but certainly a significant chill with winds increasing to 50-80 km/hr at times, highs each day 2 to 5 C. This northerly seems to be breaking into two parts on some guidance with a day of slightly milder westerly flow coming near the end of next week and perhaps raising temperatures briefly to about 7 or 8 C, before dropping back again on the weekend of 9th-10th. Some guidance then seems to raise the prospect of a colder air mass pushing west from Russia into the Baltic and North Sea regions, and this could eventually deliver somewhat more wintry conditions to Ireland, but at the same time other guidance is downplaying that trend (keeping it over the Baltic at its closest) and allowing weak pulses of milder air to feed in from the northwest, although it might also remain frosty at night in that scenario. Either way there is no huge change signalled towards the end of two weeks of forthcoming slight variations in this northerly cold spell.

My local weather has been non-stop snow of various intensity all day and at least 20 cms has been added to what was already on the ground at New Years eve, so we're blanketed now in about 35 cms, temperatures close to freezing as the air mass is rather mild and feeding in from a Pacific storm system that has temperatures up to around 10 degrees on the coast with heavy rainfall warnings and mountain avalanche warnings. We had a rather bland December here (by our standards) but the trend now seems to be towards a snowy January. However, it remains quite mild in eastern regions of North America, with rain spreading up from the Gulf of Mexico into the Ohio valley, turning to sleet over the lower Great Lakes region. This rather sluggish storm system will find itself dealing with the western boundaries of the European blocking regime and will likely just be pushed southeast around Nova Scotia into the central Atlantic.

M.T. Cranium

Sunday, 3 January, 2021

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 3 to 9 Jan 2021

-- Temperatures will average 3 to 5 deg below normal.
-- Precipitation will be slight in many areas, with mixed wintry showers, amounting to 10 to 25 per cent of normal precipitation amounts at this time of year.
-- Sunshine will be 25 to 50 per cent above normal.


FORECASTS

TODAY will be cold with a northeast breeze of 30 to 50 km/hr. The morning will be sunny in most areas, then some increase in cloud will follow, especially near the east coast, with bands of mixed wintry showers expected to form over the Irish Sea, moving about one third of the way across the country before dissipating. Upper parameters are somewhat marginal for snow today, but some could be in the mix, along with sleet, hail or cold rain in various showers, and there could be a local rumble of thunder near the coast. Best chance for snow is probably above 250m in the Wicklow hills and adjacent south Dublin. Highs 2 to 5 C but feeling more like -2 C.

TONIGHT will become clear again in many areas with lows falling to -5 C in the west, -2 C east.

MONDAY will bring another round of increasing cloud in northeast winds, outbreaks of wintry showers, and the snow chances increase somewhat with slightly colder air aloft, but it will still be a similar mixed bag of precipitation types over a fairly confined area of central Leinster. There is also some chance of mixed wintry showers near the south coast. Winds east-northeast 40 to 60 km/hr will add quite a chill to daytime highs of only 1 to 4 C.

TUESDAY will continue in a similar pattern, partly cloudy with isolated wintry showers, moderate northeast winds, and lows -5 to -2, highs 1 to 5 C.

WEDNESDAY will see winds turning more northerly for a while, which will change the distribution of the mixed wintry showers, the west and north being more favoured for them. Winds north to northwest 40 to 60 km/hr. Lows in the range of -4 to -1 C and highs 3 to 6 C.

The outlook beyond that is for several more days of quite cold and slightly unsettled weather in a moderate northerly flow, possibly getting even a bit colder by the weekend of 9th-10th, although guidance begins to diverge into two camps after that, one saying repeated reinforcements of cold from a north through northeast direction, the other implying that the blocking will slowly break down as high pressure sinks further south, allowing a weak push of milder Atlantic air masses, although still with some frosts at night as it would not be a complete return to "mild zonality." No hunches as to which set of maps to believe, but noting that this early breakdown concept has come and gone a couple of times already, so it may just be small signals getting over-amplified down the road.

My local weather on Saturday was milder and rather foggy with a slight thaw going on, as temperatures pushed up to near 4 C at our elevation, and 8 C in local valleys. This milder wedge will move on by later today and we may see a resumption of snowfall by tonight.

M.T. Cranium

Monday, 4 January, 2021

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 4 to 10 Jan 2021

-- Temperatures will average 2 to 4 deg below normal values, somewhat milder near the end of the interval.
-- Precipitation will be slight, confined to bands of sea-effect wintry showers in a few areas, with results of about 10 to 25 per cent of normal values.
-- Sunshine will be above normal in western regions to near normal or a bit below average in the east.


FORECASTS

TODAY will continue cold with bands of mixed wintry showers moving inland in central Leinster, with cold rain or sleet the most likely forms, but some snow or hail mixed in also. This morning's icy conditions in some central and western counties will continue for several hours this morning, with some poor driving conditions especially on untreated secondary roads. Mainly sunny skies will prevail further west and in parts of both the north and south, but frequent cloudy intervals will be the rule in most of Leinster. Winds east-northeast 30-50 km/hr will add a chill to highs reaching only 2 to 5 C (colder values likely inland west to north).

TONIGHT will see some continuation of the cloud and wintry showers over parts of the east, and patches of clear sky further west, with bitterly cold lows in some places, reaching -5 C. Closer to -1 or 0 C near the east coast.

TUESDAY will present more or less of a repeat of today's weather with scattered wintry showers in the east, more sunny intervals further west, highs near 4 C at best, and winds east to northeast 30-50 km/hr.

WEDNESDAY the wind direction turns more northerly which may change the distribution of the sea effect wintry showers, making them more likely to appear in Ulster and north Connacht, but there could still be some in Leinster with a slight easterly component to the northerly breeze. It will remain quite cold, with a weak milder sector perhaps bringing temperatures up briefly in Ulster towards evening, morning lows for most areas will be -5 to -2 C, and afternoon highs 3 to 6 C.

THURSDAY and FRIDAY will continue quite cold in a northerly wind flow, sometimes backing to the northwest, bringing in more wintry showers across many parts of the country, but amounts will be slight. Winds north-northwest around 30-50 km/hr. Lows near -3 C and highs near 5 C.

NEXT WEEKEND most guidance currently shows this cold spell relaxing gradually, with the result that temperatures will edge upward each day, to around 7 C on Saturday and 9 C on Sunday. Some guidance suggests that cold air is not going to be pushed very far east by this weak Atlantic resurgence, and there could be a "battleground" scenario developing by middle of next week (around the 13th-14th) where cold air clashes with the milder Atlantic air along a frontal boundary through some parts of Ireland (most likely west Ulster to north Leinster on current indications). This may lead to some snow or sleet developing in Ulster, but longer term the weak milder regime is shown holding on for a while. Many following developments in the stratosphere seem to think that a second cold spell is quite likely later in the month, so this may not be the end of cold weather if it does turn milder next week.

My local weather on Sunday remained a bit milder than freezing, mostly cloudy but no precipitation falling, and somewhat breezy at times, with temperatures around 3 C. It's not mild enough to melt much snow but there has been a bit of compaction of the earlier falls. They say we have 120 cm in alpine areas for ski-ing which is more than double what I see on the ground around here, maybe it's a slant-stick 80 cm.

M.T. Cranium

Tuesday, 5 January, 2021

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 5 to 11 Jan 2021

-- Temperatures will average 2 to 4 deg below normal, with a gradual increase towards near normal values at the end of the interval.
-- Precipitation will be slight in most areas, 10 to 25 per cent of normal values in occasional wintry showers.
-- Sunshine will be near or slightly above normal values.


FORECASTS

TODAY will continue very cold with moderate northeast winds, although some parts of the inland west will have lighter winds for at least the morning hours. Bands of mixed wintry showers will continue to feed into central Leinster from the Irish Sea, snow is only likely briefly in mixtures, or on hills. Rain, sleet and hail will also be possible at times, however, coverage is not large and amounts will be generally small. Some sunny intervals will return further west. Highs 3 to 6 C.

TONIGHT will see some clearing in parts of the west and inland south, lows there could fall to -5 C. Rather cloudy with a few weakening wintry showers in the east, lows -1 or 0 C.

WEDNESDAY will see wind directions slowly turning back to north-northeast, which may allow areas of wintry showers to develop in Ulster and Connacht, but coastal Leinster may still see some as well (inland drift may be limited with these). Still quite cold with highs 3 to 6 C, mildest in the southeast and near the northwest coasts.

THURSDAY and FRIDAY will continue very cold as a new batch of arctic air arrives from a northerly direction. There won't be much change in the weather from this current spell as a result except that wind directions will vary from north-northeast to northwest in this spell, probably continuing the tendency for wintry showers to cover more areas of the north and west, but occasionally still to be found in the east. Some minor variations within this regime may lead to weak frontal bands of mixed wintry precipitation that could see wet snow or freezing drizzle turning to a cold rain at times. Amounts will not be large, but this could occur both days. Lows will continue in the range of -4 to +1 C and highs in the range of 4 to 7 C.

SATURDAY will see mostly cloudy conditions with a weak warm front approaching, but it may take most of the day to get temperatures up very much from their early readings near 2 C, eventually it could be as mild as 6 to 8 C.

SUNDAY and MONDAY at this point look milder again with highs closer to normal values, around 9 to 10 C, with some light rain at times.

The models are generally swinging back to seasonably mild weather patterns after that, although some have a cold day or two wedged into that milder regime. Not very confident of model scenarios past five or six days at this point and certainly seems quite plausible that a second and perhaps more severe cold spell could develop later in the month, but beyond the reach of the guidance at present.

My local weather on Monday turned a bit colder with a fresh 5 cm snowfall and temperatures stalled out around -2 C.

M.T. Cranium

Wednesday, 6 January, 2021

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for week of 6 to 12 Jan 2021

-- Temperatures will average 2 to 4 deg below normal despite warming to near average for early next week.
-- Precipitation will average 25 to 50 per cent of normal, and a significant part of that could be snow in some inland counties.
-- Sunshine will average near normal.


FORECASTS

TODAY will remain very cold, with only a slow dissipation of frost, ice and some freezing fog in parts of the inland west and north. Eastern counties will be slightly milder with mixed wintry showers feeding in from the Irish Sea in north-northeast winds; the wind direction will keep the extent of these fairly confined to Dublin and Wicklow, possibly north Kildare. Highs only 2 to 5 C, with some chance of temperatures remaining near freezing all day in a few spots.

TONIGHT rain or sleet will move into parts of west Ulster and north Connacht, turning to snow further inland, where potentially 3-5 cm could accumulate by morning, most likely from central Connacht into the midlands. Partly cloudy to overcast elsewhere with isolated wintry showers; the mixed precipitation with snowfall potential will reach some parts of the east and inland south by morning.

THURSDAY the snow or sleet will continue to make gradual progress southeastward with more areas seeing 1-3 cm accumulations, more mixed or melting wintry falls near coasts. Once this band has passed, winds will pick up from a northerly direction with bands of wintry showers and further snowfall potential as the air mass will be quite cold, with morning temperatures near -1 C not moving up very much all day, highs 2 to 4 C. There is some potential for locally heavy snow showers in parts of Leinster.

FRIDAY will see further wintry showers and very cold temperatures with lows -4 to +1 C and highs 2 to 6 C.

SATURDAY will be partly cloudy to overcast, and there may be persistent freezing fog in some areas, as a weak warm front may have trouble mixing down in all areas, temperatures will likely start around -5 to -2 C and move up only slowly inland, north and east, while responding more readily to the weak push of mild Atlantic air in the south and west where it could reach 5-7 C.

SUNDAY this weak warming process will continue with more of the country escaping from the freeze, likely almost all areas will turn milder eventually, with highs 6-9 C.

NEXT WEEK continues to look a bit milder but not exceptionally so, in fact the push of milder air is so weak that high pressure areas coming in from the west may partially continue the cold spell in some inland areas, at least overnight lows may remain sub-freezing. Highs will probably be a in a somewhat higher range of 6 to 10 C in most areas.

This subdued warming will continue for a while, then I am expecting that a second cold spell may develop and there's already hints of that within two weeks, details on this will be rather slow to emerge into reliable guidance.

My local weather produced another light snowfall on Tuesday and about 5 cms fell, in overcast conditions with temperatures not far from -1 C. We're starting to get quite a buildup of snow in town now, apparently not so much at lower elevations. Another milder sector is heading across the region later today and we could see more mixing then.

M.T. Cranium

Thursday, 7 January, 2021

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 7 to 13 Jan 2021

-- Temperatures will average 2 to 4 deg below normal, with a gradual increase starting around Sunday.
-- Rainfall or mixed wintry precipitation will amount to 25 per cent of normal values.
-- Sunshine will be near normal values.


FORECASTS

TODAY will start out with widespread icy and/or snowy conditions, except near the south and west coasts, any distance inland roads may be icy and quite slippery in places due to earlier or ongoing freezing rain, freezing drizzle or mixed sleety falls. In much of central, inland southeastern and inland northern counties, snow has fallen and will continue to accumulate perhaps another centimetre or two, before ending or changing back to sleet for a time. Then by mid-day into the afternoon, a cold northerly flow will arrive with bands of mixed wintry showers moving into western counties from the Atlantic, and possibly down the east coast also, in north to northwest winds 30 to 50 km/hr. Very cold with highs only about 2 to 4 C. Some snow-covered areas may hold near freezing until the snow is gone.

TONIGHT will see some clear intervals, isolated wintry showers, and very cold again with lows near -4 C.

FRIDAY will have variable amounts of cloud and a cold northerly wind, with scattered wintry showers, some accumulations of snow are possible near east coast and on hills. Highs 2 to 5 C.

SATURDAY will be partly cloudy with some locally persistent freezing fog, morning lows -6 to -2 C, afternoon highs slowly inching past freezing in most areas to the 2 to 5 C range, could reach 7 to 9 C in some outer (west, north) coastal areas.

SUNDAY will be similar although the milder air will sluggishly make inroads and bring temperatures up a few more degrees in many areas, lows -2 to +3 C and highs 5 to 9 C.

MONDAY to WEDNESDAY the milder air will continue to push rather weakly against the entrenched colder air which will only move slowly away from Ireland and then Britain, possibly returning briefly in some areas mid-week. Highs will edge up to more normal values 8 to 11 C. There won't be much if any rainfall in this regime, possibly a few light outbreaks amounting to 5-10 mm total.

The longer term outlook then calls for a return to colder weather on east to northeast winds some time around end of next week or the weekend of 16th-17th. Guidance probably becomes quite unreliable as to strength and duration of that cold spell since part of the justification for it involves near-term but future stratospheric changes.

My local weather brought another round of snow reaching about 10 cm by late morning when it began to taper off to drizzle; we escaped the worst of the mixed precipitation which came inland with the decaying Pacific storm and was cut off more by elevation than any other factor; rain fell during the day as close to us as Spokane WA. Temperatures here were around zero or +1 C, down there about 7 C.

Stay safe if you have to travel today, some driving conditions are likely to be quite poor especially on less travelled routes.

M.T. Cranium

Friday, 8 January, 2021

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 8 to 14 Jan 2021

-- Temperatures will average 2 to 4 deg below normal, with a slow moderation towards normal late in the interval.
-- Rainfalls will average 50 to 75 per cent of normal, most of which will occur around Tuesday into Wednesday next week.
-- Sunshine will average slightly above normal in many areas.


FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly cloudy with some areas seeing plenty of sunshine, others rather cloudy if they are located near scattered bands of wintry showers drifting south from the Atlantic west of Scotland. These wintry showers may contain mixtures near coasts but will readily turn to sleet or snow inland. Some parts of the east coast may be brushed by southward moving wintry showers but many of those could stay just offshore making for some interesting cloud scenes near the Wicklow coast. Very cold with highs 1 to 4 C.

TONIGHT will be very cold also with clear skies promoting some local freezing fog banks in valleys, otherwise fairly clear except for any isolated wintry shower bands which should die out by midnight. Lows -4 to -7 C inland but slightly milder on some outer coasts.

SATURDAY will be the slow start to a transition away from the cold for a while, but with only a weak westerly flow available, the cold air may be hard to move out of many eastern and central counties. It will likely warm up a little faster in west Munster, west and north Connacht and west Ulster where highs could reach 7 C, but further east, highs of 2 to 5 C are more likely.

SUNDAY continues this slow process under partly cloudy skies, a less severe frost to start in some places (lows -4 to +2 C) then highs reaching about 9 C in the west, 6 C in the east. The warming trend will be largely dry but there could be scattered outbreaks of drizzle or light rain in the northwest at times.

MONDAY will also be a bit milder in the south but there could be a slight relapse to colder temperatures in the north as a weak disturbance turns winds around to the northwest briefly there. Scattered wintry showers could follow. Highs will be in the range of 4 to 8 C from north to south.

TUESDAY and WEDNESDAY are looking somewhat milder again, although in east Ulster and north Leinster the colder air from Monday's incursion may try to hang around most of the day. Eventually some steady rain is likely to follow by Wednesday. Highs in the south and west near 10 C both days, east around 8 C, north 5 to 7 C.

The OUTLOOK beyond mid-week is for slightly colder air to return in a variable wind regime at first, followed by an easterly that might pull in significantly colder air at some point around the 16th-17th. Too soon to be very reliable guidance but some models are showing the potential for a frontal boundary event near or through Ireland in this period meaning that some areas (most likely north and east) could see some snow.

My local weather on Thursday was overcast but dry with highs near -1 C. Meanwhile, parts of central and northern Spain are under a snowfall warning for 15-30 cm amounts, even in Madrid, quite unusual but being caused by this same cold air mass that Ireland has been in for the past week, coming into conflict with low pressure southwest of Spain moving across southern Spain in the next day or two. It will head northeast and bring snow to parts of southern France and northern Italy although also bringing in milder air to central and southern Italy and then Greece and the southern Balkans by the weekend. There could be quite a temperature contrast with this system as it moves through southeastern Europe.

M.T. Cranium

Saturday, 9 January, 2021

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 9 to 15 Jan 2021

-- Temperatures will average 2 to 4 deg below normal, despite one or two days around mid-week pushing above normal slightly.
-- Rainfall will average 50 to 75 per cent of normal, most of it taking place around Wednesday.
-- Sunshine will average slightly above normal.


FORECASTS

TODAY will start out bitterly cold with widespread wintry sunshine but some local ice fog patches possible. With very light winds, the air mass will not allow any milder air to mix down in many areas, so temperatures will only gradually edge back towards freezing and highs near 2 C. Closer to the west coast however, there will be a more significant warming trend with highs reaching 7 C. Some scattered outbreaks of drizzle will occur in the northwest but it should remain dry although perhaps icy in most other regions.

TONIGHT there will continue to be some frosts although not as severe, with lows -5 to -2 C, staying closer to +1 C near west coast. Skies will be clear to partly cloudy, with some patchy overcast and drizzle in the north.

SUNDAY will become partly cloudy to overcast with some light rain in the west by evening. Highs near 4 C in the east to 8 C west.

MONDAY will be overcast with showers or intervals of light rain, temperatures steady 4 to 7 C (slightly higher near Atlantic coasts), and it may begin to turn a bit colder again in Ulster and north Leinster by evening.

TUESDAY a wedge of cold, dry air over Britain will perhaps influence east Ulster and north Leinster where highs may be capped at around 5 C, but further west, mild air will slowly push in from the west, raising temperatures to the range of 8 to 10 C, with occasional light rain developing overnight.

WEDNESDAY will become quite mild in all areas with highs 10 to 12 C, and about 10-15 mm rain is likely. This will push off to the southeast during the afternoon, and slightly cooler air will return by the evening.

THURSDAY will be partly cloudy to overcast with lows near 1 C and highs near 6 C.

FRIDAY will be overcast with lows near -1 C and highs near 7 C.

The outlook for next weekend is for another wedge of milder air to arrive on Saturday, with some rain likely, highs near 10 C, then a bit cooler by Sunday (around 7 C). The evolution beyond that is somewhat in doubt, quite a bit of the guidance has colder air building in from the north around the start of the week (18th Jan), other sources suggest mild regimes holding on for a while with cold massing just to the north. Either way there are prospects for a return to very cold temperatures at some point towards the end of January.

My local weather on Friday was mostly cloudy with a few breaks in the overcast, and highs near -1 C.

M.T. Cranium

Sunday, 10 January, 2021

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 10 to 16 Jan 2021

-- Temperatures will be near normal for mid-January.
-- Rainfall amounts will be 50 to 75 per cent of normal.
-- Sunshine will be near normal, or slightly below in some areas.


FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly cloudy, turning milder with any remaining frost quickly dissipating across the inland south. Highs 7 to 10 C. Some light rain may begin to fall near Atlantic coasts by afternoon.

TONIGHT will be overcast with rain spreading into western and then central counties, foggy at times, lows 4 to 7 C.

MONDAY will see rain tapering to showers, with partial clearing late in the day, moderate westerly breezes, highs in the range of 7 to 10 C (coolest north/east).

TUESDAY will also have outbreaks of rain, most areas except possibly east Ulster will be mild with highs 8 to 11 C, but east Ulster could remain closer to 5-7 C.

WEDNESDAY will see the rain ending mid-day after 20-30 mm total amounts over the two days. Some clearing will follow as winds turn from southwest to westerly, not overly strong for this time of year (40-60 km/hr). Temperatures rising slowly during the overnight will peak near 12 C mid-day then fall off again slowly.

THURSDAY will be partly cloudy and a bit cooler again, lows near 3 C and highs near 7 C.

FRIDAY will bring increasing cloud with rain by evening, lows near 2 C and highs near 9 C.

OUTLOOK ... at least one more round of milder air with rain early next weekend, possibly a second one after that around Monday 18th, then turning colder in stages mid-week and possibly becoming very cold at times, although guidance for that is somewhat inconclusive and also a bit far off to be too certain.

My local weather on Saturday here was overcast with temperatures near +1 C and there was no precipitation, a rather misty low ceiling sort of sky though (we are high enough up here to be at the level of what valley dwellers would call clouds).

M.T. Cranium

Monday, 11 January, 2021

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 11 to 17 Jan 2021

-- Temperatures will average near normal to 1 deg above normal.
-- Rainfall will average near normal to 25% above normal.
-- Sunshine will average 50 to 75 per cent of normal.


FORECASTS

TODAY will be overcast with occasional rain, becoming heavier by afternoon before ending from west to east for a time this evening, highs 8 to 11 C. About 10-15 mm rain expected.

TONIGHT some clearing will spread into parts of Ulster where it may turn quite cold briefly, lows 2 to 4 C. Otherwise it will stay overcast in other regions with fog and occasional light to moderate rain, lows 6 to 8 C.

TUESDAY will see some further rainfalls of 10-15 mm with occasional heavy showers, and moderate southwest winds. The colder air in Ulster will be pushed back to the east by mid-day and all regions will then be around 9 to 12 degrees.

WEDNESDAY the rain will end by mid-day (about 20-30 mm additional expected) and it will begin to clear late in the day. Temperatures steady 10-12 C then falling slowly to around 7 C.

THURSDAY will be partly cloudy and a bit colder with lows near 4 C and highs near 8 C.

FRIDAY will be breezy and mild with occasional rain, southwest winds 50 to 80 km/hr, highs near 10 C.

The OUTLOOK for the weekend is for westerly winds and slowly falling temperatures in several stages, as winds become more northwesterly. Some showers are likely at times, with readings near 8 C on Saturday and 6 C by Sunday.

Next week looks colder again, with winds more northerly, highs only in the range of 3 to 6 C and possibly even colder, depending on which guidance prevails, as some of the charts by mid to late week (20th-23rd) show very cold air even a bit colder (in the daytime at least) than what was experienced last week, potentially some snow showers with that if not intervals of snow, much depends on wind directions and embedded low pressure in this arctic air, and daytime readings in the range of -2 to +2 C. This is certainly not "carved in stone" yet, but has been a fairly frequent theme of almost all guidance from time to time in the past few days. Then the least certain aspect of all is how long this second cold spell might last once underway, there were early suggestions it would be about a 3-4 day event but now it's looking possibly more like a week to two weeks.

My local weather continues in the "featureless" mode that we've come to expect, overcast skies, no precipitation, temperatures just around the freezing point. But we are expecting a heavy dump of snow here late tonight into Tuesday, possibly lasting through Wednesday and bringing at least 20 cms. The weather across eastern regions of North America is rather cold but dry, and it's mild and dry well to the south of my location across the southwestern and south central U.S. ... for this time of year, the pattern across North America is rather inactive with few instances of winter storm conditions. Meanwhile that snowstorm in Spain the other day broke into two pieces over the Mediterranean, largely jumped past Italy in the process, and the more active half moved into the Balkans where some areas got heavy snow, the remnants are now over the Black Sea.

M.T. Cranium

Tuesday, 12 January, 2021

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 12 to 18 Jan 2021

-- Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg above normal values, although dropping to colder levels at end of the interval.
-- Rainfall will average 25% above normal in some parts of the northwest and central counties, to as much as 50% below normal near the south coast. Much of the heavier rainfall will occur tonight and Wednesday morning.
-- Sunshine will average near normal values.


FORECASTS

TODAY will see a moderate to heavy rainfall zone setting up from north Connacht southeast into the midlands, and extending eventually into Leinster. East Ulster and north Leinster may remain largely dry although overcast, and the south coast will only see lighter rainfall in showers later in the day. It will be mild in most places, although rather cool in the northeast, at least until later in the afternoon, with highs near 7 C there, otherwise most places will probably reach 11 or 12 C. About 30-40 mm of rain will fall in the heavier rainfall zone by late tonight.

TONIGHT will see heavy rain continuing in the northwest and central counties for a time, with somewhat heavier rain (than earlier) breaking out also in other regions. Foggy and mild with lows generally 8 to 10 C.

WEDNESDAY will start out quite mild with the rain ending, then a gradual clearing trend will develop from the west, although it may not reach the east coast before afternoon. Temperatures steady 10 to 12 C then falling slowly.

THURSDAY will be partly cloudy and considerably cooler with lows near 4 C and highs near 8 C.

FRIDAY will have clear skies to start, with frosts likely, lows near -2 C. Then it will begin to warm up again, rather slowly, in a weak southerly flow, although more blustery near Atlantic coasts where rain is likely to spread in. Highs will range from 6 C east to 10 C west. The rain will continue overnight, becoming more showery by early Saturday.

SATURDAY will be partly cloudy to overcast, windy with passing showers, winds westerly 50 to 80 km/hr, lows near 5 C and highs near 8 C.

SUNDAY will be partly cloudy to overcast with a few showers, possibly becoming wintry in some parts of the north, winds turning more northwesterly 50 to 80 km/hr, lows near 4 C and highs near 7 C.

The OUTLOOK for next week is challenging (to the forecast models, each one comes up with a somewhat different solution) -- the general theme is cold to very cold, with a moderate to high risk of snow or sleet towards the end of the week. The cold may eventually become severe according to some guidance, but at this point, I'm only committing (in the forecast) to a moderate cooling trend with highs to drop to around 3-6 C and night frosts likely to return, with at least mixed wintry showers at times next week, and possibly a significant snowfall. Details on all this will no doubt come into better focus by about this coming weekend.

My local weather has turned snowy as expected, so far about 8 cm and it's coming down moderately at this late hour, probably on the way to 20-30 cm totals. Temperatures have been just around freezing so this could start to mix with rain at some point during the storm, as the warmer Pacific air comes in over top of us to create chinook conditions east of the Rockies by mid-week. At that point much colder air will hit my region in the wake of the low pressure system.