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Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)

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  • Thursday, 11 February, 2021

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TRENDS for the week of 11 to 17 Feb 2021

    -- Temperatures will average near to 1.5 deg above normal values, with the milder readings in the south and west. Considering that today will average about 4 below normal, that indicates a fairly steady rise to above normal values.

    -- Rainfall including melted equivalent of any snow or sleet (which may be considerable in some places) will range from twice normal in the south (possibly nearing three times normal over higher terrain) to closer to average in central and northeast counties, and perhaps 50% above normal in parts of Connacht.

    -- Sunshine is going to be fairly limited with a lot of low overcast expected.


    FORECASTS


    TODAY ... Rain is moving into west Munster and will begin to turn over to sleet and snow inland and could become heavy at times over higher terrain in particular. The progress of the snow or sleet will slow down over the rest of the morning and while there may be sporadic outbreaks ahead of the main band from streamers, the onset of the wintry mix or snow will be around mid-day for central to eastern Munster and south Connacht, and afternoon for the rest of Connacht, the east midlands, and most of Leinster. This round of sleet and snow is likely to grind to a halt somewhere just north of Dublin so that some parts of north Leinster and Ulster may be waiting until the overnight hours to see the snowfall arrive, again with the exception of some streamer activity out ahead of that band. Even at this hour, snowfall amounts are rather difficult to estimate, and are likely to be quite variable from place to place. Some potential amounts could be lost to mixing with drizzle or freezing drizzle mixed with the snow in lower elevations near the south coast and perhaps further inland at times. The ballpark estimate where it does snow would be in the range of 3 to 8 cms, but some places could get just traces to 3 cms. Higher terrain may see 10-20 cm falls, in particular the eastern slopes of the Wicklow mountains look to be primed, as there could be sea-effect snow falling on higher slopes there. Coastal areas all around the south and east are going to be subject to some melting or just a change to cold rain at times. There is also fairly wide model support for a dry "shadow" effect to the northwest of the high ground in the inland southeast, but that would fade out if this snowfall overperforms. Winds today will be from the southeast at 40 to 70 km/hr, sometimes increasing to gusts near 80 km/hr, adding quite a raw feel to the temperatures which will be around 2-4 C before wintry mixtures or snow begins, falling back to 0-2 C in that sleet or snow. Parts of west Munster, especially coastal Kerry and southwest Cork, could see readings of 7 to 9 C and a wind shift to south-southeast.

    TONIGHT the sleet and snow will continue to push slowly north and will begin to overspread parts of Ulster and north Leinster, while gradually ending further west. Snow may continue intermittently in south Leinster. Further accumulations of 5 to 15 cms are possible in a few places, 2 to 5 cms more widely. Some central counties will see a brief transition to light rain then foggy conditions as slightly milder air moves in over the slowly melting snow. Outbreaks of heavier rain may develop across west Munster and south Connacht at times, with 10-20 mm potential. Rather than specifying "lows" in this rising temperature regime, values will be around 7-10 C in the southwest, around 3-5 C over central counties, and 1-3 C in the east and north.

    On FRIDAY the colder air will be confined to east coast counties and most of Ulster, but there will not be much further encroachment of the milder air with some continued outbreaks of snow and sleet in the northeast, drizzle or light rain in central counties, and occasional rain near the south and west coasts. Winds will remain southeast at about 30-50 km/hr in the east, and will turn more southerly elsewhere, increasing again to 60-90 km/hr. Temperatures will remain steady 1 to 4 C in the east, and will slowly rise elsewhere to around 7 C, 10 C in the southwest.

    By SATURDAY the final push of milder air will begin, and this may lead to one last outbreak of sleet or snow in parts of Ulster, possibly inland Connacht and north Leinster, depending on where the fronts have settled by the time a new source of precipitation arrives from the south. This will be producing heavy rainfalls further south and with 20 to 40 mm potential, some flooding from snowmelt could begin. Temperatures will be slowly rising in all regions to reach highs late in the day near 8 C. Winds southerly 70 to 100 km/hr.

    SUNDAY will then continue windy and milder with rain at times, and higher risks of flooding as the snowmelt will likely be nearly completed from the higher terrain by then. Highs 10 to 12 C and winds southerly 70 to 110 km/hr.

    The OUTLOOK for next week is for relatively mild and occasionally wet weather to continue although there may be a few times where temperatures fall back to the 2-5 C range between mild sectors of incoming lows. As the very cold air is only going to be pushed east about as far as Norway and Germany, it won't be that far away to provide the potential for a renewed cold spell; some guidance suggests that the high pressure area associated will in fact push back west but in such a way as to promote a mild southeast flow of drier air later next week, with that the overnight lows could fall back to frosty levels at times but daytime highs would be quite a bit milder than this current spell.

    My local weather on Wednesday was sunny with cloudy intervals and rather cold at -8 C. We are going to be staying near the outer edges of a vast pool of arctic air that has seen temperatures well below -20 C over most of the prairies and northern plains states. This cold air has come to a halt trying to move south and a sleet-snow mixture is falling over Virginia and Maryland with snow across Ohio and Pennsylvania. This will all move further east today and several more disturbances are expected in the same general pattern over the next week or so, with the severe cold staying more confined to the Great Lakes region and eastern Canada.

    Astronomy note: new moon occurs today at 1906h (7:06 p.m.) IST. This will produce some high tidal levels along the east and south coasts with the onshore winds expected today. We can't currently see the planets Jupiter and Saturn which are now more or less behind the Sun on the opposite side of the solar system from us. Mars on the other hand is easily found in the night sky, and is approaching the constellation Taurus and the Pleiades, when I was out looking at the clear skies here recently I spotted it almost overhead and looking like a twin of the brightest star in Taurus, reddish Aldebaran (on the other side of the sky, Antares is similar in appearance and its name means "rival of Mars.") Now that we've passed Mars and it's considerably further away than last autumn, it is no longer as prominent.




  • Friday, 12 February, 2021

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TRENDS for the week of 12 to 18 Feb 2021 --

    -- Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg above normal, the smaller departures expected in Ulster and Leinster.
    -- Rainfall will average about 2 to 3 times normal amounts across the south, then closer to average in central and northern regions where some of that will be snow overnight and on Saturday.
    -- Sunshine will start to appear a little but probably won't surpass half of the normal mid-February amounts.


    FORECASTS (and a recap of Thursday's weather outcomes)

    On THURSDAY the expected snow only materialized in Connacht and some parts of Munster, and was largely absent from Leinster. In fact, the snowfalls exceeded most forecasts in Galway and Mayo, were about as expected in Clare and some parts of Tipperary, and otherwise did not take place further east. The culprit was dry air at lower levels, some snow was falling into this dry layer and evaporated. Also the system turned out to be weaker in the east and stronger in the west than most guidance suggested. So that's where the expected snow went. The snow has largely stopped falling except for some light flurries here and there; more is expected to develop tonight.

    FRIDAY (TODAY) will continue cloudy, windy and cold in most areas, with slightly milder air making a very slow advance into western counties as snow gradually melts there. That will lead to fog over hills especially, and a gradual rise to near 4 C with drizzle at times. The eastern half of Connacht, the midlands, southeast and parts of north Leinster will remain cold and largely dry with a few flurries or patchy drizzle, southeast winds 50 to 70 km/hr and temperatures steady in the range of 2 to 4 C. Most of Ulster will be partly to mostly cloudy with temperatures around 1 to 3 C.

    TONIGHT as rain moves a little further east and begins to get heavier near the south coast, areas of sleet and snow are expected to develop over central and eastern Connacht, the midlands, and some although not all parts of the southeast. The same dry air problem may prevent some of the snow from being very heavy in Leinster, but 7 to 12 cm falls are expected in parts of Connacht and west, south Ulster by mid-day Saturday. The possible range for Leinster may be more like 1 to 5 cm, or even some local trace amounts, but we will keep an eye on this and possibly update amounts for Leinster closer to the time. ... Temperatures tonight will start out near 4 C in the south and west, and could rise slowly there. Readings near -1 to +1 C are likely elsewhere, where snow develops, rising slowly to +2 or +3 C as snow begins to mix with rain. Winds southeast 40 to 60 km/hr except stronger near the south coast at times (southerly 60 to 90 km/hr). About 10-20 mm rainfalls are expected in parts of Kerry, Cork, Waterford and Wexford.

    SATURDAY will see the snow, sleet and rain areas all moving further northeast and eventually the wintry forms of precipitation will end leaving the entire country with rain and strong southerly winds 70 to 110 km/hr, and fog will also be rather widespread especially over areas of melting snow. Temperatures will rise to 10-12 C in the south and west, and 7-9 C over snow covered areas leading to a rapid melt. About 20-40 mm rainfalls are expected and some flooding is likely especially where streams are swollen with mountain runoff that may include snow melt.

    SUNDAY will be breezy to windy and mild, south winds at 70 to 110 km/hr, temperatures steady 8 to 12 C and some patchy rainfalls that will be heavier in the south and west, where a further 15-30 mm could fall. Any flooding will be maintained or get slightly worse as a result.

    The rest of next week looks fairly mild also, with highs between 6 and 10 C on most days, and winds generally south to southwest. There will probably be several intervals of rain with brief dry spells between them.

    My local weather on Thursday was sunny and bitterly cold, highs were only around -14 C with a frigid breeze from the north. Lows could fall to around -25 C here overnight. This very cold air now covers just about all of Canada, and the northern half of the U.S. to the east of the Rockies; somewhat milder in the south with outbreaks of snow, sleet and freezing rain along the frontal boundaries which are generally around the latitude of Oklahoma City to Richmond Virginia now. Dallas Fort Worth area in Texas is under an alert for an unusual cold wave after the weekend with snow and record cold temperatures predicted. That's basically the air mass over my part of the world now heading south behind a developing storm system.




  • Saturday, 13 February, 2021

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TRENDS for the week of 13 to 19 Feb 2021 --

    -- Temperatures will average 2 to 3 deg above normal.
    -- Rainfall will average 150% to 250% of normal, heaviest in the south.
    -- Sunshine will average 50% of normal values.


    FORECASTS

    TODAY ... Snow across parts of the east and north will gradually mix with sleet, ice pellets and then rain, with temperatures slowly rising to around 4-6 C by late in the day, winds southeast 50-80 km/hr easing somewhat by afternoon. Some parts of Ulster can still expect a further 10 cms snow with the changeover there coming during the mid-day to afternoon hours. Becoming rather foggy over any areas of lying snow once somewhat milder air arrives. Poor driving conditions can be expected in most parts of Ulster, Leinster and Connacht until the changeover is fully established and even then strong wind gusts, fog and ponding of runoff may create road hazards that will also be present in the rest of Ireland. The rest of the country having already warmed to around 3-5 C with rain, will see further outbreaks of heavy rain at times with 15-30 mm potential, winds southerly at about 70-110 km/hr but easing slightly later. Flood risk especially in vicinity of streams flowing out of higher terrain where snow could be melting. Temperatures around 8-10 C by afternoon.

    TONIGHT ... Foggy and occasionally wet with moderate southerly winds 50-70 km/hr, lows near 4 C north and east, to 7 C south and west. Remaining snow melting steadily, some areas of dense fog likely in the north especially over higher terrain.

    SUNDAY ... Becoming very windy with outbreaks of heavy rain, flood potential high in some areas. highs 10-13 C, winds southerly 70-110 km/hr with potential for higher gusts near coasts, 15-30 mm rainfall in some parts of the south.

    MONDAY ... Moderate southwest winds again becoming strong for a time late in the day, occasional rain, lows near 5 and highs near 10 C.

    TUESDAY ... Mostly cloudy, showers, moderate southwest winds, lows near 4 and highs near 9 C.

    OUTLOOK ... Somewhat cooler mid-week with temperatures closer to 7 C daytime and 2 C overnight, occasional rain with some sleet on hills, then milder again by Friday-Saturday with southwest winds continuing most of the time.

    The pattern after this coming week looks broadly similar for the rest of February with passing fronts, generally mild temperatures and occasional strong wind gusts. There are hints of a much colder interval near the end of the month or around the first of March.

    My local weather on Friday was sunny with increasing high cloud and it remained quite cold at around -10 C. They are preparing for wintry weather in New Mexico and Texas as this very cold air pushes all the way south into northern Mexico by Sunday and Monday. The east coast of the U.S. can expect a number of mixed precipitation events as the storm track runs right up along the coastal plain rather than out to sea where it can deliver snow to the big cities, instead the snows are going to be over the higher ground of the Appalachian Mountains.




  • Sunday, 14 February, 2021

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TRENDS for the week of 14 to 20 Feb 2021 --

    -- Temperatures will average 2 deg above normal values.
    -- Rainfall will average 25 to 50 per cent above normal.
    -- Sunshine will average near normal.


    FORECASTS

    TODAY will become very windy especially near Atlantic coasts, where south to southwest winds of 70 to 120 km/hr are expected. Strongest wind gusts are expected around noon to 3 p.m. in Connacht and a bit later than that in Donegal, with a risk of coastal flooding at high tides. Elsewhere, 60 to 100 km/hr will be the general range in exposed areas, with 40 to 70 km/hr inland. Quite mild with highs 11-13 C and some outbreaks of rain with variable amounts of cloud that might include some brighter spells. Any high elevation lying snow will melt quickly adding to stream runoff, rainfalls generally 5-10 mm but some places in hilly terrain could see 10-20 mm.

    TONIGHT will be breezy and mild with occasional rain, lows 7 to 9 C.

    MONDAY will be overcast and mild with moderate southwest winds, 40 to 70 km/hr. There will be a spell of stronger winds by evening and into the overnight hours. Highs near 10 C.

    TUESDAY will be overcast with moderate southwest winds again after the overnight gales subside, and rain will become rather persistent with 10-20 mm expected, lows near 6 C and highs near 10 C.

    WEDNESDAY will be slightly cooler with occasional showers, highs near 8 C.

    THURSDAY will also be a somewhat cooler day with some rain at times, highs near 7 C. Becoming windy by evening with heavy rain likely, temperatures may then rise somewhat.

    FRIDAY and SATURDAY are expected to see the arrival of very mild air from the central Atlantic and highs could reach 12 to 14 C, in southwest winds with some rain at times.

    The pattern for the following week becomes mild and dry, relatively speaking, with temperatures continuing above normal for the week but rainfall less frequent, some chance of a few really pleasant early spring days (which will be welcome after the spell we've just seen out). Maps are indicating some risk of a colder spell developing at the end of the month into early March.

    My local weather on Saturday was overcast although the sun was dimly visible and it was not quite as cold as recent days with a high near -6 C. Some light snow is developing overnight here. An unusually severe wintry blast is hitting Colorado and New Mexico today and will move into Texas overnight, bringing snow and sub-freezing temperatures to places that rarely see such conditions. Freezing rain has left some nasty conditions along parts of the east coast but a slow thaw is likely today and into Monday, then rain from the same storm I mentioned for Texas will arrive with the snow moving further inland up the Appalachian mountain chain.




  • Monday, 15 February, 2021

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TRENDS for the week of 15 to 21 Feb 2021

    -- Temperatures will average 2 to 3 deg above normal values.
    -- Rainfall will average near normal, possibly a bit above normal in places.
    -- Sunshine will average near normal too, as the overcast begins to break at times.


    FORECASTS

    TODAY some blustery showers will move northeast through the morning hours, with a slight risk of a thunderstorm. Some brighter intervals will follow this afternoon, quite mild at 11-13 C. About 10 mm of rain could fall in some of the heavier showers. Winds south to southwest 50 to 70 km/hr.

    TONIGHT will become very windy in parts of Connacht and Donegal, with southwest winds 70-110 km/hr and a risk of coastal flooding. Other regions will be windy also, in the 50-80 km/hr range. Some rain at times, mild with lows around 7 C.

    TUESDAY will be mainly cloudy with occasional rain, heavy at times, 10-20 mm expected, and highs near 10 C with moderate southwest winds 40 to 60 km/hr.

    WEDNESDAY will be partly cloudy to overcast with rain becoming heavier in the late afternoon or evening, and highs will reach 7 C. The rain could turn to sleet or wet snow for a time over higher ground in the overnight hours into early Thursday.

    THURSDAY will be a rather cold day with gradual clearing skies after the morning sleety mix, then increasing cloud and strong southerly winds will arrive during the night with another risk of sleet or snow at first. Highs near 6 C.

    FRIDAY will be windy with rain, heavy at times, and milder with highs 11-13 C. Winds south to southwest 70-110 km/hr.

    SATURDAY will be mild with showers, highs near 12 C.

    SUNDAY will be partly cloudy and mild with isolated showers, highs near 11 C.

    The OUTLOOK for next week is for further mild weather until near the end of the month, then a gradual change to much colder weather is expected, lasting into the first few days of March.

    My local weather on Sunday was overcast with a bit of light snow, then sunshine breaking through towards the late afternoon, staying rather cold with highs near -6 C. It has turned very cold with snow across most of Texas and New Mexico, and a second snowstorm is expected mid-week in the south central states, but the storm track has now shifted a bit to the northwest over the east coast allowing the coastal cities to avoid wintry outcomes from these two storms as they move northeast, and placing the snow further inland, in fact by Friday it will be the Midwest and lower Great Lakes looking at potential for a snowstorm. The very cold regime in most of North America looks like it will just modify in place rather gradually over the following week as the flow returns to a more normal west to east or zonal pattern.


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  • Tuesday, 16 February, 2021

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TRENDS for the week of 16 to 22 Feb 2021 --

    -- Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg above normal values.
    -- Rainfall will average 25 to 50 per cent above normal, heaviest west central counties.
    -- Sunshine will average near normal to 25 per cent below normal in south and east.


    FORECASTS

    TODAY will be partly cloudy with scattered showers, becoming more overcast around mid-day. There may be a brief interval of dry weather generally by late afternoon in advance of the next area of rain expected overnight. Winds will subside to more moderate levels and remain southwesterly at about 40 to 60 km/hr. Highs 10 to 12 C.

    TONIGHT will bring intervals of moderate rainfall, 5-10 mm expected, lows near 5 C.

    WEDNESDAY will see this rainfall ending during the morning, followed by variable cloud and isolated showers, another interval of heavier rain expected by evening. Highs 8 to 10 C in the south but only 5 to 7 C in the north where it will feel quite cold.

    THURSDAY will have an early morning rainfall event of 10-20 mm that could mix with sleet over higher ground. Some parts of the western coastal counties may see 20-30 mm rainfalls with this low tracking through central counties overnight. Strong south to southwest winds for a time near the southeast coasts, but these will not affect other regions. Later in the day, partial clearing and rather cool, temperatures steady 4-6 C from overnight into the daytime hours (except 8-10 C briefly in the southeast).

    FRIDAY will see another overnight rainfall to start the day and this rain could be quite heavy in places with 30-50 mm potential. Winds becoming strong south to southwest 70-110 km/hr. Temperatures climbing to 10-12 C and staying in that range to about Saturday morning, with the rain still going by then.

    SATURDAY will start out wet especially in the east, but the rain will finally end and push east, leaving a partly cloudy day with highs near 9 C.

    SUNDAY will have variable cloud, showers, southwest winds 40 to 60 km/hr and highs near 10 C.

    The OUTLOOK for next week is for near average conditions to late in the week, then colder weather returning by the end of the month and persisting for several days into March.

    My local weather on Monday was overcast with light snow, about 3-5 cm accumulated, and temperatures got slightly milder, reaching -3 C.




  • Wednesday, 17 February, 2021

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TRENDS for the week of 17 to 23 Feb 2021 --

    -- Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg above normal values.
    -- Rainfall will average 25 to 50 per cent of normal, heaviest in the southwest.
    -- Sunshine will average near normal values.


    FORECASTS

    TODAY will be partly cloudy with isolated showers at first, becoming mostly cloudy by afternoon, staying dry in places before rain develops late afternoon or evening near the south coast. Winds moderate southwest 40 to 60 km/hr will begin to increase near the south coast late afternoon, highs reaching 8 C.

    TONIGHT will be windy with rain heavy at times, southerly gales 70-100 km/hr developing at least over some parts of the south and east, depending on the track of a low expected to cross some parts of Ireland tonight. Further west, it's less likely to be windy until late overnight after the low has cleared through to the north, then westerly winds of 40 to 70 km/hr will develop. Winds veering to southwest further east towards morning. About 15-25 mm of rain is likely in many areas, and it could turn to sleet over higher parts of west Munster and Connacht, as temperatures there will drop off to around 2 C, while staying milder in the east at 7-9 C.

    THURSDAY will be cool and breezy with passing showers, some heavy with hail or thunder especially over parts of Connacht and west Ulster. Southwest winds 50 to 80 km/hr, highs 7 to 9 C.

    FRIDAY will become windy with rain heavy at times, and temperatures will peak at around 12 C mid-day before dropping back slightly, winds south to southwest 70 to 110 km/hr, and 20-40 mm rainfalls possible (heavier in the hilly regions of south and west).

    SATURDAY the rain will begin to taper off to showers during the morning and there could be partial clearing later, with temperatures between 8 and 10 C in moderate southwesterly winds.

    SUNDAY will be partly cloudy with isolated showers and highs near 9 C.

    OUTLOOK ... Monday will probably be a bit cooler again (7-9 C) with some rain at times, then milder with some rain expected for Tuesday (10-12 C) before a gradual cooling trend sets in that brings temperatures down to average or even slightly below average values late in the month (6-8 C), as the flow turns westerly and sometimes a bit northwesterly. This period will be generally a bit drier with only small amounts of precipitation.

    My local weather on Tuesday was overcast with light snow melting on roads and adding just a slight coating elsewhere, as temperatures edged up to near +1 C. The unusual cold outbreak in Texas has now spread all through the Gulf coast region with a second snowfall event tonight (local time) moving through Oklahoma and Arkansas, scattered outbreaks of freezing rain further south. A rather disorganized storm is developing over the Gulf of Mexico and will tag along behind the snowfall to produce a complicated mixture of snow, sleet and freezing rain for the east coast states on Thursday and Friday. The heaviest snow looks like it will stay inland at least as far north as New York City where it might reach the coast until the storm leaves Friday night. This one will reach Ireland in some form around late Monday into Tuesday of next week. The severe cold spell seems to be slowly easing over central North America with more of a west to east flow developing next week. Chicago has had one of its coldest periods in a long time with an average temperature 7 C deg below normal so far this month, and also heavy snowfalls with almost 50 cms on the ground. This severe cold moderates gradually until anomalies are closer to zero in New England and even slightly above normal in some areas further south, but the recent cold wave in Texas saw some daily departures from normal approaching 25 to 30 C deg below normal. (It was so cold at DFW that the record low maximum on Tuesday was below the previous record low minimum, something quite rare for any weather station with a long period of record, and their previous record was in 1909 for that date -- 31/15 F replaced by this year's 14/4, later dropping to -2 F on the 16th which is -19 C, only twice in the past has it been colder than that, in 1899 and 1949).




  • Thursday, 18 February, 2021

    Forecasts for Ireland



    The trends remain on the mild side of normal with frequent rainfalls and limited but near average amounts of sunshine.

    A rather vigorous low tracked through Ireland overnight, its effects ranged from snow or sleet in some higher western locations, to strong wind gusts around Dublin and the coastal southeast around 0200h. Tracking another system like this with potential to cause some active weather on Saturday. But before that arrives, a larger scale rain and wind system will move through on Friday morning.

    FORECASTS

    TODAY will be rather breezy and cool with bands of showery rain and some thundery cells embedded in western counties, where 5-10 mm further rainfalls are expected (2-5 mm elsewhere). Any morning sunshine is likely to fade behind extensive cloud by afternoon, showers will be more isolated at least this morning in eastern counties. Winds southwest 40-70 km/hr, highs near 7 C.

    TONIGHT may start out rather chilly especially in parts of Leinster and Ulster with evening lows of 2-5 C but further west milder air will already be arriving and this will rapidly spread east, with heavy rain following on strong southerly winds increasing to 70-110 km/hr by morning. Temperatures will be on the rise after midnight wherever they might be below 5 C, to the 9-10 C range by dawn.

    FRIDAY will start out very windy with heavy rain at times, a total of 15-30 mm expected. Conditions will improve slightly for the afternoon with partial clearing in some western counties and rain tapering to showers further east. Highs 10-12 C around mid-day, could fall off slightly in the west after mid-afternoon.

    SATURDAY will be breezy to windy and rather mild in the east, as another fast-moving low develops and tracks from south coast to Ulster late in the day. This one might not encounter cold enough air to turn the precipitation over to sleet or snow like last night's low, but there will be a temperature gradient from near 5 C northwest, to 12 C southeast, as the low arrives. This could create a squall line feature and thunderstorms, and strong gusty winds from the south veering to southwest with gusts above 80 km/hr.

    SUNDAY will be partly cloudy and less windy with moderate temperatures, highs near 9 C.

    Around MONDAY-TUESDAY another strong low is expected, probably not until Monday night into Tuesday morning, and that one will also produce strong south to southwest winds and briefly heavy rainfalls. Temperatures will be around 10 C.

    The rest of next week looks a bit more settled with some influence of high pressure likely by about Thursday and Friday, when it might turn a bit colder. Low pressure areas are likely to return to the weather picture after that but with cooler air in place, either a chilly rainfall or a sleety mix is possible from these around the last weekend of this month into early March.

    My local weather on Wednesday was partly cloudy with some nice sunny intervals, and while we're still in a cool modified arctic air mass, the stronger sun could be felt and it resulted in an afternoon high a little above freezing for a change. The east coast of the U.S. are bracing for a nasty mixture of snow and sleet as mild Gulf air is streaming in over top of an extensive shallow cold air mass trapped under higher pressure; it doesn't look as though this cold layer will be disrupted but temperatures will stay just below freezing and the mixed precipitation will fall mostly as sleet but in some areas as freezing rain (which is a lot more damaging to trees and infrastructure). About 10-20 cm snowfalls are also expected in the opening phases of this mixed event. Parts of Texas are still without electricity after their snow and ice storm earlier this week. Similar conditions may appear in places notably Mississippi, Tennessee, Virginia, North Carolina and Maryland, as the storm moves further east today.




  • Friday, 19 February, 2021

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TRENDS for the week of 19 to 25 Feb 2021

    -- Temperatures will average about 2 to 3 deg above normal values.
    -- Rainfall will average 50 per cent above normal, with higher amounts possible in the south.
    -- Sunshine will average near normal, improving later in the week.


    FORECASTS

    TODAY the heaviest rain and strongest winds have just about peaked across the south and east, and while it will remain blustery and showery, there should be some improvements to conditions especially by the afternoon by which time it should be less windy with only isolated showers. About 15 mm of rain has fallen in some areas and 10 to 15 mm additional could fall in the next few hours. In a few parts of west Munster this could lead to localized flooding from small stream runoff overflowing. Highs today around 12 C and winds southerly, currently in the 70 to 100 km/hr range in places, moderating to 50 to 80 km/hr by afternoon.

    TONIGHT will see further isolated showers and moderate southerly winds, mild with lows 6 to 8 C.

    SATURDAY will be quite mild with southerly winds reaching 70 to 110 km/hr at times by mid-day and afternoon, except near the west coast where the centre of low pressure moving north will have slacker gradients and locally winds could be easterly to northerly as the low tracks past in the afternoon. This low may generate a blustery cold front with squall line potential although current guidance keeps that potential non-severe. Highs near 11 C except closer to 7 C in some parts of the northwest. Temperatures will fall gradually later in the day.

    SUNDAY will become more pleasant with some sunny intervals and generally more moderate wind speeds in the 40 to 70 km/hr range. Lows near 4 C and highs near 10 C.

    MONDAY will have a rather chilly start with morning lows 2 to 5 C, light winds will give way to increasing southerly winds of 70 to 100 km/hr by late afternoon, and a peak near 80 to 120 km/hr is possible overnight as a strong frontal system crosses the country with heavy rainfalls returning for much of the overnight period, lasting into TUESDAY when it will continue windy with heavy rainfalls tapering gradually to showers, winds veering to southwest 60 to 90 km/hr before finally abating late in the day, with temperatures steady near 9 C. There appears to be potential for 40 to 60 mm rainfall totals in parts of the south and possibly elsewhere in the two-day life cycle of this storm system.

    The rest of next week then looks more settled, with guidance somewhat split on the details. Some guidance builds up strong high pressure right over Ireland for several days near the end of the month. Other guidance prefers to keep the high pressure over France and maintains a gentle southwest flow for Ireland that becomes stronger towards the last day of the month. Either way it would likely be around 10 C with some sunshine each day, but the more mobile option would include some chances for showers along weak frontal systems. The colder spell that had been anticipated is now moved back into early March and takes on more of a northerly look, as earlier this high had been expected to be further north to promote cool easterly flow. Looks like we're getting back to the familiar guidance tendency to present and then remove from view cold spells about two weeks into the future.

    My local weather on Thursday was cloudy and rather cold until mid afternoon when it turned more unsettled with a driving wet snowfall that amounted to at least 5 cms and has since tapered off to snow grains, temperatures in the range of -5 to -3 C throughout. The east coast storm came as expected although some places had less snow than forecast and more sleet instead (notably Washington and Baltimore which should maybe form some sort of international bond such as various cities enjoy, with weather enthusiasts in Ireland after this winter). The light snow continues in some parts of New England. This low will track on further to the east and become the more powerful storm expected in Ireland by Monday night. At some point around the central Atlantic Sunday night, this storm will be at near hurricane strength north of the Azores so the west coast of Ireland can expect some robust waves and swells with this storm upon arrival. It won't be that strong when it does arrive, also its core will remain out to the northwest of Donegal Bay and rotate back around south of Iceland. Rainfalls could be the main story with it.




  • Saturday, 20 February, 2021

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TRENDS for the week of 20 to 26 Feb 2021 --

    -- Temperatures will average about 2 deg above normal values.
    -- Rainfall will average at least 50 per cent above normal values.
    -- Sunshine will come in close to average thanks mostly to better prospects for sunshine late in this interval.


    FORECASTS

    TODAY will become windy with outbreaks of rain, showery at first, then with some rather blustery showers and thunderstorms mainly focused on a cold front that will develop when low pressure arrives from the south by afternoon and reaches Galway, at this point (around 3-4 p.m.) a squall line feature is possible from east Galway through the midlands to the inland southeast, and some heavy showers and thunderstorms with strong wind gusts may develop. Winds in general will be southerly 50 to 80 km/hr veering to southwest 60 to 100 km/hr, but gusts to 110 km/hr are possible near this front along with hail and thunder. Temperatures will be steady around 10 to 12 C ahead of the front, and will drop to around 7 C after it passes. Some west coast locations may see intervals of less windy weather near the time that the low is passing due to its slack gradients near the core. But even so, winds in all areas will increase at some point later in the day when the low has passed by. About 15 to 30 mm rainfalls are possible, heavier amounts expected to be in the south coast counties and near the Atlantic coasts where it may be more of a steady downpour than a showery event.

    TONIGHT will be blustery with passing showers, or longer intervals of light rain in some northern areas, a further 5 to 10 mm may fall there, with lows generally about 6 C and winds southwest 40 to 70 km/hr.

    SUNDAY will become partly cloudy with showers more isolated in western and northern counties for the most part, and moderate southwest winds in the 40 to 70 km/hr range. Highs will be around 10 C.

    MONDAY will start out dry and rather cold after morning lows of 2 to 5 C. For a while it will be relatively calm and bright, then with increasing cloud and southerly winds building in the afternoon, rain will sweep in from the southwest late in the day. Highs will be around 10 C but temperatures will be steady or rising slightly by evening. MONDAY NIGHT will be stormy with 30 to 50 mm rainfall potential in the 24 hours ending late Tuesday, and southerly winds 70 to 110 km/hr.

    TUESDAY will continue very windy and wet as the rain continues for much of the day before finally tapering off to showers by evening. Winds continuing south to southwest 70 to 110 km/hr, temperatures in the 10 to 13 C range.

    Flooding risks will be considerable by Tuesday morning into the rest of the day due to the persistent moderate to heavy rainfall rates. Another point of interest may be high waves and swells likely to develop as this storm will have had some intense phases while crossing the Atlantic, more so than its intensity near Ireland -- around Sunday night it could be as deep as 940 mbs north of the Azores, but luckily the intense centre weakens and rotates around towards Iceland and keeps away from the Irish coast, although the frontal systems it creates are strong enough to make it appear likely that perhaps orange level two warnings will be required at least in coastal counties.

    WEDNESDAY will bring gradual improvements although it will still be somewhat unsettled and breezy with highs around 9 C.

    The interval from THURSDAY to SUNDAY ending out this rather active weather month will perhaps be a contrast in terms of more sunshine and less wind than we have seen for quite some time, guidance has begun to come together on the idea of high pressure being fairly close to Ireland in this interval even though there are some signs of weak frontal passages in the westerly flow around the top of the high pressure. This won't be a cold high but nights may get a little cooler due to the clearer skies and lighter winds, while days remain in the near average 8 to 11 C range.

    My local weather on Friday here was overcast with temperatures just around freezing, a rather drab looking day that I decided looked better from inside than out. The finishing stages of the east coast storm proved to be fairly tame other than a slight top up to the light snowfalls in New England, but the low has only now begun to form a more intense core and will be steadily deepening over the weekend on its way to the central Atlantic.


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  • Sunday, 21 February, 2021

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TRENDS for the week of 21 to 27 Feb 2021

    -- Temperatures will average about 2 deg above normal, mildest around Tuesday.
    -- Rainfall will average twice normal values in the west, about 50% above normal in the south, and closer to average amounts elsewhere.
    -- Sunshine will average near normal thanks to an improving trend later in this weekly interval.


    FORECASTS

    TODAY will be partly cloudy in most regions with just isolated showers, but there will be more widespread and sometimes heavy or thundery showers near the west coast. With lighter winds it will be relatively pleasant with highs around 10 C.

    TONIGHT the showers will gradually die out and a clearing trend will follow, rather cold in most areas with lows falling to 1 to 4 C.

    MONDAY will start out bright and cool, and for the first half of the day relatively calm, then a southerly wind will begin to increase along with cloud spreading in ahead of a powerful frontal system, winds by late afternoon will increase to 50-80 km/hr. Highs near 10 C.

    MONDAY NIGHT into TUESDAY will be windy and wet with temperatures steady in the 12 to 14 C range, southerly winds will slowly veer more to the southwest in the 70 to 110 km/hr range at their peak which is likely to be late overnight to mid-day Tuesday. Heavy rain will develop and spread up the western side of the country with 30-40 mm amounts expected, leading to localized flooding. While it will be frequently showery elsewhere with 20-30 mm totals, the flood potential will be less significant away from the south coast (and parts of the west as indicated).

    WEDNESDAY this system will begin to die out but not before continuing the wet weather for the first part of the day in the east, while gradual clearing spreads into the west. Lows near 7 C and highs near 10 C.

    THURSDAY will become partly cloudy and a little cooler with moderate southwest winds, lows near 2 C and highs near 9 C.

    A high pressure area will build up later in the week and should control the weather pattern for several days through the final weekend of February. Guidance is not particularly unified on the details however. Some depictions show a relatively mild southwest flow continuing, while other maps suggest the high will get very close to Ireland and possibly build up further to the north allowing for a cooler southeast flow eventually. Either way it's likely to be dry with temperatures not too far from 10 C daytimes and 3-5 C for overnight lows (could drop lower if the high is in fact right over the country at any point). Any cooler turn to temperatures would be home-grown as the former frigid air mass lurking over western Europe earlier this month has been pushed back into the northern half of Russia. However, some charts are now suggesting that eventually, a new cold spell could develop from a northerly origin some time in March.

    My local weather on Saturday was a bit milder again with a few melting snowflakes at times, highs near 3 C. As of 0600h, the Atlantic storm due to influence Ireland on Tuesday was located about 200 miles southeast of St John's Newfoundland (980 mbs) and is predicted to deepen to 948 mbs around 50N 30W mid-day Monday. Hurricane force winds will develop out in the central Atlantic at that time, but this intense storm then slowly weakens and rotates around to the south of Iceland. Even so, this will send large waves and swells further east in the Atlantic and the circulation will continue to be quite strong well out to the east of the low itself, where the frontal systems will be pushing towards Ireland by Monday night.




  • Monday, 22 February, 2021

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TRENDS for the week of 22 to 28 Feb 2021 --

    -- Temperatures will average 2 deg above normal values, although with a trend towards near average later in the interval.
    -- Rainfall will average 50 per cent above normal in some parts of the south and west, locally twice normal in parts of Kerry, Cork and possibly also Connemara in Galway, but closer to average in other parts of the country.
    -- Sunshine will average near normal to 25 per cent above normal thanks to a brighter trend later in this week.


    FORECASTS

    TODAY will start out cool and bright with gradually increasing cloud and a rising southerly wind not becoming too noticeable until afternoon. Highs will be 8 to 10 C.

    TONIGHT will become windy with outbreaks of rain becoming heavy at times in the southwest and later in other parts of the south and west generally, 20 to 40 mm potential with southerly winds 70 to 110 km/hr in exposed locations and 50 to 80 km/hr more generally. Temperatures steady 10 to 12 C.

    TUESDAY will see further outbreaks of rain and strong south to southwest winds gradually easing slightly by afternoon, after starting out in the 70 to 110 km/hr range. Highs 12 to 14 C. A further 10 to 30 mm of rain is possible and by morning there could be ongoing flood problems in heavy rainfall zones, notably around south Kerry and southwest Cork hilly terrain and streams draining that region.

    WEDNESDAY will be showery with more moderate southwest winds of 40 to 70 km/hr, lows near 4 C and highs near 10 C.

    THURSDAY will become partly cloudy to sunny with only a few isolated showers left, lows near 2 C and highs 8 to 11 degrees.

    From FRIDAY to SUNDAY high pressure will be nearby and it should be dry in most areas except for some occasional light rain reaching the west coast from dying out frontal systems, even those might not produce much more than traces of rain. Highs each day in this dry spell around 9 to 11 C and lows -2 to +2 C. It should be at least partly sunny and there's some chance of longer intervals of sunshine especially over the southeast and east.

    This high may eventually reposition somewhat further north and drag in some slightly colder surface layers so that temperatures may stall out around 8 to 10 C for a while once March begins, but guidance is flopping around quite a bit for March at this point and there have been some model runs that look quite warm replacing those colder looks we were seeing a while ago. The flow pattern has begun to return to more normal "zonal" flow patterns now that the last stages of that stratospheric warming event are dying out.

    My local weather was cloudy with highs near -1 C. Texas, Oklahoma and Louisiana have come out of the deep freeze although it is still quite a bit colder than average there with some snow left in places.




  • Tuesday, 23 February, 2021

    Forecasts for Ireland


    TODAY: At this hour (0800h) heaviest rainfalls have shifted to Connacht and west Ulster as a wave formed overnight in the southwest flow, rainfall rates of about 5 mm an hour can be expected for a few more hours there with rapid increases in local stream flows. For the time being, Munster seems to be into a drier portion of this system after overnight rainfalls of 15-25 mm, hopefully there will be a relative lull in the rainfall there as there isn't a lot showing on satellite imagery for the immediate future, however moderate rainfall bursts will probably resume either this afternoon or evening if there is in fact a break for the south. It will get quite mild this afternoon, reaching 12-14 C, and the strong southerly winds will probably moderate slightly although staying in the 50-80 km/hr range when they do (currently some gusts to 100-110 km/hr in exposed areas).

    TONIGHT: Some further intervals of rain with 10-15 mm potential, staying mild with lows 7 to 9 C, south to southwest winds at 50 to 80 km/hr.

    WEDNESDAY ... some rain will continue in the morning in parts of the east while other regions begin to dry out, with partly cloudy skies and more isolated outbreaks of light rain possible later, in moderate southwest winds, highs around 10 C.

    THURSDAY ... Partly cloudy, breezy, cool with passing showers, some locally heavy with hail or thunder (western counties most likely to see these). Lows near 4 C and highs near 10 C.

    FRIDAY ... Sunny intervals, light winds. Lows near 2 C and highs near 10 C.

    WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... Partly cloudy with sunny spells likely, light winds, a return to frosts at night for some. Lows around -2 to +2 C and highs 8 to 10 C.

    FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Near average and becoming a bit more unsettled by middle of first week of March although not too active a pattern, temperatures near 10 C daytime hours.

    My local weather on Monday was overcast and mild with one brief interval of sleet, highs near 4 C. Much milder or warmer for southern states across the central regions of the U.S. where some places are 30 degrees warmer (in C deg) than they were last week at this time. For example, the high on Monday in Houston was 25 C.




  • Wednesday, 24 February, 2021

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TRENDS for the week of 24 Feb to 2 Mar 2021 --

    -- Temperatures will average near normal values (which at this point are around 10-11 C daytimes, 3-4 C overnight).
    -- Rainfall will average about 50% of normal, and most of that will be today and tomorrow with a welcome dry spell looming for the rest of this seven day interval (not totally dry in the west where small amounts could fall on a couple of days).
    -- Sunshine will be at least normal and possibly as much as 50% above in some places, away from what may be cloudier south coast counties.


    FORECASTS

    TODAY will see some additional rainfall, mainly in the southern third of the country and possibly at times in central counties, but amounts should be less prolific than recently, at around 5-15 mm. There will be a slow clearing trend from the west but its progress will be minimal beyond central Connacht to northwest Munster. With the partial clearing some sunny breaks are likely with patchy marine layer clouds moving in. Highs 10 to 12 C.

    TONIGHT will see partial clearing and lows 2 to 5 C. There may still be isolated outbreaks of light rain in a few spots.

    THURSDAY will be breezy and somewhat colder with highs 8-10 C. A few passing showers are likely in most places and they may be locally and briefly heavy in the west to central counties. Winds westerly 40 to 70 km/hr.

    FRIDAY will become much less breezy and it should be a pleasant day with near average temperatures of 2-4 C in the morning and 8-11 C in the afternoon. Some sunshine is likely but a very weak front will be dying out near the west coast by afternoon and could bring at least full cloud cover for a time if not a bit of drizzly light rain.

    SATURDAY and SUNDAY look settled and partly cloudy, highs both days near 10 C after morning slight frosts in some areas, and more sunshine is likely further north as a weak southeast breeze may be bringing in cloud layers from the Celtic Sea originating from a weak disturbance embedded in the high pressure area over northwest France. That weak system may eventually drift up over west Munster by Monday with local showers, otherwise this high should hold on to control of the weather pattern for a few days into March before a more variable pattern emerges. Some guidance is back to showing a cold outbreak towards the second week of March, what I take from that is that very warm weather is probably not the most likely next step after the high, would bet that it stays fairly bland and near normal for a while as the flow over North America is somewhat neutral in terms of firing up the jet stream.

    My local weather on Tuesday was relatively pleasant with some sunny intervals, shower formations over the local mountains dropping snow pellets on higher terrain but it played out as virga down in the valley where I happened to be at the time, also it was a bit milder down there at 9 C, up here it was probably closer to 4 C. There is a 500m elevation difference so this is fairly normal especially in unsettled weather patterns with stronger "lapse rates."




  • Thursday, 25 February, 2021

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TRENDS for the week of 25 Feb to 3 Mar 2021 --

    -- Temperatures will average near normal values.
    -- Rainfall will average 10 to 25 per cent of normal.
    -- Sunshine will average near normal, to 25 per cent above normal.


    FORECASTS

    TODAY will be sunny with cloudy intervals. A few showers will develop near Atlantic coasts and some will make progress towards the midlands before dying out. Most places are likely to remain dry however, and highs will be in the pleasant 9 to 11 C range with just moderate westerly breezes at times.

    TONIGHT will be clear to partly cloudy, with slight frosts likely, lows -2 to +3 C.

    FRIDAY will see sunshine followed by increasing afternoon cloud, highs near 10 C. There may be some light rain in western counties by evening. Overnight, this light rain will move further east but amounts will be decreasing as the front will be weak and breaking up at this point. Amounts of 2-5 mm are expected in the west, trace to 2 mm east.

    SATURDAY morning may remain cloudy for a while as this frontal cloud grinds to a halt but it should become at least partly cloudy if not sunny by afternoon, lows near 4 C and highs near 10 C.

    SUNDAY and MONDAY will be dominated by high pressure that is expected to have some low level moisture trapped, what some might call anticyclonic gloom -- it probably won't be cloudy everywhere all day, so some brighter intervals can be expected, more likely or longer lasting further north and west away from the origin of the cloud to the southeast. Light winds will prevail. Highs 8 to 10 C and lows dependent on clear skies or cloud, with a likely range of overnight lows -1 to +5 C.

    The further OUTLOOK is for rather bland weather to continue as this high slowly breaks down but the cloud stays in place, partly to mostly cloudy days with a slight chance of showers returning towards the end of the week, and highs generally not far from 10 C. Guidance is indicating potential for a colder spell of northerly origins around the middle of the second week of March but only lasting a couple of days before more average conditions would return.

    My local weather on Wednesday was sunny with highs near 5 C. The strong sunshine more than the air temperature was causing snow melt and any hilly streets in town (which is most of them) had a bit of runoff but any areas in shade had wintry surface conditions of ice or snow. Our snow pack has been gradually reduced to about 45 cms from the peak of 70 cms back around late January.




  • Friday, 26 February, 2021

    Forecasts for Ireland



    The coming week will feature dry weather for most areas with small amounts of rain tonight and possibly around Tuesday of next week, but not amounting to more than 2-4 mm in either case; temperatures will be fairly close to seasonal averages and sunshine also likely to total about the normal amounts with high pressure somewhat tainted by patchy cloud, however there is potential for some places to see better than average sunshine, and the most significant detail may be generally light winds -- it should be a reasonably good period for drying which is badly needed in most areas.

    FORECASTS

    TODAY will be sunny with increasing afternoon cloud, with scattered outbreaks of light rain arriving on the west coast by late afternoon to evening. Highs 10 to 12 C.

    TONIGHT the patchy light rain will tend to die out over central counties and parts of the east could remain almost dry with just trace amounts, lows will range from 3 C in the east to 7 C near the west coast.

    SATURDAY any morning cloud or patchy drizzle should clear before mid-day and sunshine may develop across most areas in the afternoon, highs near 10 C.

    SUNDAY will be partly cloudy with patchy morning frosts, lows -2 to +3 C, and highs near 9 C.

    MONDAY will be partly cloudy with lows near 2 C and highs near 9 C.

    TUESDAY will be partly to mostly cloudy with isolated showers, lows near 4 C and highs near 10 C.

    The rather bland weather pattern will slowly break down later in the week and it will become more active in the second week of March, details keep changing and we may not get a very clear picture of trends for temperature until middle of next week (for the second week) but it does occasionally appear rather windy with rain returning to the forecast.

    My local weather on Friday started out with a fairly heavy snowfall of about 10-12 cms that ended before mid-day but it then remained cloudy with a few flurries not adding any significant new accumulations; temperatures were a bit below freezing and are heading down this evening to overnight lows near -8 C. Another much weaker arctic air mass has pushed down across most of western Canada but it only has temperatures that are slightly below normal this time, and poses no real threat to the deep south as it's likely to stall over the central plains.




  • Saturday, 27 February, 2021

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TRENDS remain similar, mainly dry and near normal in terms of temperature and sunshine.

    FORECASTS --

    TODAY will start out with patchy cloud and isolated drizzly showers, amounts very small and most places staying dry. Better sunshine is likely towards mid-day and afternoon. Light winds, nearly calm in many areas, with highs 11 to 13 C.

    TONIGHT will become partly cloudy but any locations remaining clear would have some chance of seeing either frost or fog patches developing. Lows about -1 to +4 C.

    SUNDAY will be partly cloudy with light winds continuing and highs 10 to 12 C.

    MONDAY may be somewhat more overcast than partly cloudy, and there is a slight chance of isolated showers developing. Lows -1 to +4 C and highs 9 to 12 C.

    TUESDAY will see a weak southerly flow developing, some outbreaks of showery rain possible, lows near 4 C and highs 10 to 13 C.

    Later in the week the high, which by Tuesday will have slipped a bit further east, will rebuild and draw in some reinforcements from another high further north. This will have the effect of making it slightly colder towards the end of the week but these subtle changes may only be noticeable in east Ulster and parts of Leinster. Highs then will continue about the same in western and southern counties (10 to 13 C) but could be as cool as 7 to 10 C in the north and east. There will also remain a slight chance of isolated showers, and frosts at night for a few inland low lying spots.

    This slight cooler trend may turn out a bit more vigorous for Britain and parts of central Europe which could see temperatures drifting down into a more wintry range, but so far it looks like the process is too weak to make that much impact in Ireland.

    The following second week of March looks more active and in general not overly warm with Atlantic lows tracking in towards the south on a trajectory that will allow them to interact with cold air, but again it looks modified to the point where it would be more of a cold rain than a late return of wintry precipitation. That could change especially for some northern counties.

    My local weather on Friday was partly cloudy with passing light snow flurries, and rather cold with highs about -1 C.




  • Sunday, 28 February, 2021

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TRENDS for the week of 28 Feb to 6 Mar 2021 --

    -- Temperatures will average near or slightly below normal values.
    -- Rainfalls will amount to 10 to 20 per cent of normal.
    -- Sunshine will be near average although rather variable from region to region.


    FORECASTS

    TODAY will be partly cloudy to sunny, and with light winds it should feel relatively mild despite only average late February temperatures around 10 C.

    TONIGHT will see more clear skies in some places leading to local frosts and fog patches, lows -2 to +3 C.

    MONDAY will bring a mixture of cloud and sunshine, still rather calm, with highs 9 to 12 C.

    TUESDAY will become partly cloudy to overcast, with lows 2-4 C and highs 10-12 C.

    WEDNESDAY may have a few light showers in a weak frontal passage as slightly colder air pushes in from the north to replace what's left of our current high pressure area. Lows near 4 C and highs 8 to 11 C.

    THURSDAY and FRIDAY will feel a bit of the chill from the new high having pushed down into Britain from around Iceland -- the dynamics are weak so this may sound worse than it will actually play out, just a slight drop in temperatures for Ireland and even over in Scotland more directly affected it will stay above freezing. In Ireland highs will be 7 to 10 C and slight frosts will be more widespread than earlier in the week.

    This colder weather pattern will begin to become a bit more unsettled over the weekend of 6-7 March although rainfall amounts are expected to be slight, with little change in temperatures. Later on, the second week of March looks fairly unsettled and with the colder air still hanging around, these Atlantic lows are going to find it difficult to raise temperatures much past 7 or 8 C even in coastal areas, so that there could be some sleety mixtures at times on higher ground inland.

    My local weather on Saturday was sunny and with highs around 4 C there was a continued slow melting of lying snow and ice turning to slush, although in shady areas because of low dewpoints it remains quite wintry. At this elevation we don't tend to get a very fast snow melt during March, it partly melts and partly sublimates until most is gone, then what's left is quickly consumed by April rainfalls. Down lower in the local valleys, snow is usually gone by the middle of March.




  • Monday, 1 March, 2021

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TRENDS for the week of 1 to 7 March

    -- Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg below normal values, coldest around end of the week.
    -- Rainfall may amount to 25 to 50 per cent of normal, much of that would be likely to arrive near the end of the interval so until then essentially dry.
    -- Sunshine will average near normal values.


    FORECASTS

    TODAY will bring sunny intervals once any morning fog or low cloud breaks up, but the south coast may remain cloudier. Light southeast breezes, rather cool with highs 9 to 12 C.

    TONIGHT will produce a bit more frost and fog patches with lows -2 to +2 C.

    TUESDAY will be partly cloudy with a slight chance of isolated showers inland south, highs 9 to 12 C.

    WEDNESDAY will be partly cloudy to overcast, some guidance indicates a chance for showers spreading into the southeast from a more certain area of rain in southern England, but other guidance keeps this just a bit off the coast so the areas most likely to see any rain might be along the southeast coast, and even there, amounts may be quite small. Rather chilly as that colder high I was mentioning begins to intrude into northern regions, light to moderate northeast breezes, lows -1 to +3 C and highs 7 to 10 C.

    THURSDAY and FRIDAY look quite cool with partly cloudy skies, possibly longer intervals of sunshine in the southwest, as the source of any cloud would be either the Irish Sea for eastern counties or the Atlantic for parts of Connacht in north to northeast breezes. Isolated showers could be sleety on higher terrain. Lows -2 to +2 C and highs 7 to 10 C.

    The weekend outlook calls for a slight moderation in temperature but an increasing risk of rain developing, with Monday quite likely to be unsettled with heavier amounts of rain arriving by then. Highs will recover slightly to the range of 9 to 12 C.

    My local weather on Sunday was overcast at first, then sunny by mid-day, and reasonably mild again with highs around 5 C. Our hilly streets are turning to streams of muddy water running off but that doesn't mean the snow depths are being reduced very quickly, if we had two weeks of this kind of weather we might lose half the snow pack eventually. In fact we are expecting some fairly bland but mild weather all week.




  • Tuesday, 2 March, 2021

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TRENDS for the week of 2 to 8 March 2021 --

    -- Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg below normal values, coldest around Friday.
    -- Rainfall will average 50 to 75 per cent of normal, most of it expected after Sunday.
    -- Sunshine will average near normal for early March (about three hours a day).


    FORECASTS

    TODAY will be partly cloudy to sunny once any fog or low cloud dissipate, although some of that could be persistent near coasts (east and south). Rather mild in the west, chilly in the east. Highs 8 to 12 C.

    TONIGHT will see an increase in cloud preventing a lot of frost from returning, low cloud is more likely and lows will be 2 to 5 C.

    WEDNESDAY will be cloudy with some sunny breaks, cool, with risk of showers in parts of the east, highs 8 to 11 C.

    THURSDAY will be partly cloudy to overcast, chilly, with northeast breezes, isolated showers, lows near 3 C and highs 7 to 10 C.

    FRIDAY will be partly cloudy and cold with isolated showers, possibly sleety on hills, lows near 3 C and highs near 7 except 9-10 C in the southwest.

    SATURDAY will be partly cloudy and slightly milder with isolated showers, highs near 10 C.

    SUNDAY will become overcast with outbreaks of light rain possible, more breezy than the rest of this week, with highs 10 to 12 C.

    MONDAY into TUESDAY, an Atlantic disturbance is expected and it could be fairly strong with locally heavy rainfalls and strong winds, staying rather cold with temperatures 7 to 9 C, winds westerly at least 50 to 80 km/hr during the period.

    The outlook is rather wintry, after that disturbance passes another one may travel further south and turn winds around to the east with quite cold air left over from this week's arctic air mass over Britain, and while that phase will not have a direct impact in Ireland, next week it's possible that we might see mixed forms of precipitation or a cold rain with east winds (most likely mid-week around 9th-10th) followed by a rather mobile Atlantic pattern that might eventually start mixing in warmer air masses later in the month.

    My local weather on Monday was overcast and rather foggy over the hills due to a low cloud ceiling just above our elevation, highs near 3 C.


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  • Wednesday, 3 March, 2021

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TRENDS remain similar, somewhat colder than average, rather light rainfall at first becoming closer to normal amounts by late in this interval, and sunshine probably running a bit below normal with considerable cloud even when high pressure gets nearby.


    FORECASTS

    TODAY will be mostly cloudy, the best chance of sunny breaks is probably around Limerick, Clare and south Galway, with areas of cloud streaming in from the east both south and north of the Dublin region which may remain under low cloud and fog for a while. Some of these clouds will contain light showers of rain that could give 1-3 mm totals to a few spots in the inland southeast and trace drizzle in the inland north. Rather chilly with highs 8 to 10 C.

    TONIGHT will remain overcast for most, with a few breaks, and a slight northeast breeze may bring in some drizzle or light rain along the east coast. Lows 3 to 5 C.

    THURSDAY will be cloudy with a few brighter intervals, isolated showers, and moderate northeast breezes at times, with a chilly high of about 7 C.

    FRIDAY will be partly cloudy to sunny, better chances for sunshine inland west and north, morning lows -2 to +2 C and highs 7 to 10 C.

    SATURDAY will see a weak frontal trough trying to drop rain but probably quite hit or miss results, 1-3 mm may fall in some parts of Connacht and west Munster. It will get slightly milder too, highs near 11 C.

    SUNDAY will become overcast with patchy light rain and highs near 12 C.

    The OUTLOOK for next week calls for rather breezy to windy conditions at times, passing showers or intervals of rain with frontal passages, and temperatures generally not far from 10 C. One disturbance in the parade wants to take a more southerly track around Thursday 11th and that one could run into some fairly cold air left over from the previous cold frontal passage Tuesday, so there could be a brief appearance of mixed wintry precipitation around then. Later on in mid-March there are faint signs of warming trends that may take temperatures slightly above average by St Patrick's Day.

    In my local weather, we enjoyed the mildest day so far this early spring, with a high near 12 C. That had snow melting rather steadily despite an absence of sunshine, and our snow pack has diminished to about half of what it was a week ago.




  • Thursday, 4 March, 2021

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TRENDS for the week of 4 to 10 March 2021 --

    -- Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg below normal values.
    -- Rainfall will gradually edge up later in the period towards a total around 75 per cent of normal.
    -- Sunshine will be rather limited at best, 50 per cent of normal might be the best of it.


    FORECASTS

    TODAY will be cloudy with a few brighter intervals in the southwest, patchy light drizzly showers giving 1-2 mm totals in a few places. Moderate east to northeast winds at times, chilly with highs only 6 to 9 C.

    TONIGHT will be partly cloudy and cold with lows -1 to +3 C. Some isolated and possibly sleety showers most likely in Ulster, Connacht and north Leinster.

    FRIDAY will be partly cloudy with cool easterly breezes at times, highs 7 to 10 C.

    SATURDAY will be cloudy with a few brighter intervals, and occasional light rain perhaps more persistent in the west, lows -1 to +3 C and highs 7 to 10 C.

    SUNDAY will be partly cloudy, breezy with passing showers, winds southwest 40 to 70 km/hr, highs near 11 C.

    MONDAY will likely start off wet as a front passes, then turn more partly cloudy by afternoon, highs near 11 C. Winds becoming westerly 50 to 80 km/hr.

    TUESDAY will be windy with outbreaks of rain (5-15 mm potential), winds southwest 60 to 90 km/hr, highs near 12 C.

    WEDNESDAY into THURSDAY still presents a bit of a challenge for the models as a second low is expected but its track is not confirmed, could be through parts of the south-central counties or off the south coast, which will determine to some extent whether it has any potential to become wintry for a brief interval around Thursday morning, but temperatures will be at best around 7 or 8 C and a more certain outcome towards the end is that strong west to northwest winds will sweep in behind the low on whatever track it takes, lasting into FRIDAY and bringing temperatures in the 5-8 C range, so feeling quite raw in strong winds reaching 70-100 km/hr at times.

    This stretch of rather inclement weather will then be replaced by much nicer weather conditions towards the weekend of the 13th-14th and into the following week, with high pressure returning to a dominant position just about over top of Ireland and somewhat warmer in general with highs into the 12-15 C range likely.

    My local weather on Wednesday was sunny and very mild with highs near 14 C, which has the snow rapidly melting away, at least where the sun can reach it, and it appears likely to remain quite mild here for another week or so, leading me to look around for valley locations where golf courses might open up (that won't happen up here until first week of May as the local course still has over 30 cms cover).




  • Friday, 5 March, 2021

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TRENDS for the week of 5 to 11 March 2021 --

    -- Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg below normal values.
    -- Rainfall will average near normal.
    -- Sunshine will average 50 to 75 per cent of normal.


    FORECASTS

    TODAY will be partly cloudy, with some persistent areas of low cloud but more breaks than yesterday, in light southeast breezes. Highs 5 to 9 C.

    TONIGHT will be partly cloudy with some frost and fog developing, lows -3 to +3 C.

    SATURDAY will be partly cloudy in the east, becoming overcast in the west where some light rain may come and go, with 1-3 mm amounts locally. Highs 8 to 11 C.

    SUNDAY will be partly cloudy with isolated showers, lows -2 to +4 C and highs 8 to 11 C.

    MONDAY will feature some rain in the morning (3-7 mm) followed by partly cloudy skies as winds slowly veer from southerly to westerly. Lows near 4 C and highs 10 to 12 C.

    TUESDAY will become rather windy with outbreaks of rain (5-15 mm expected), lows near 7 C and highs near 12 C. Winds southwest 50 to 80 km/hr.

    WEDNESDAY will be breezy with passing showers, and there could be more intense winds and rain by evening as a strong frontal system races across Ireland, lows near 7 C and highs near 11 C, winds southwest to west 50 to 80 km/hr and possibly as high as 70 to 120 km/hr in the evening and overnight.

    THURSDAY will continue windy and turn somewhat colder with passing sleety showers, lows near 4 C and highs 6 to 8 C. Winds westerly to northwesterly 50 to 80 km/hr.

    The main change in this forecast concerns the deeper outlook period, models have taken that nicer spell off the charts for the time being and extended this rather unpleasant regime (for next week) into a second week with not much change now from week to week, temperatures staying rather depressed for mid-March. We can share some hope that this is one of those flip-flops on long-range maps that won't dig in and become more certain, it could change back to what we had been seeing for several days previously.

    My local weather was mild again, sunshine through various layers of higher cloud at times, and highs near 12 C.




  • Saturday, 6 March, 2021

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TRENDS remain similar, cool, likely to become quite unsettled with at least normal amounts of rain, and mostly cloudy through the interval.

    FORECASTS

    TODAY will be mostly cloudy with outbreaks of light rain or drizzle mainly near the west coast, 1-3 mm possible there, and staying rather cool with highs 8-10 C.

    TONIGHT could see a few breaks in the overcast allowing frost to develop briefly (as it did last night before cloud moved in to end the frost). Lows -2 to +3 C.

    SUNDAY will be cloudy with sunny breaks and isolated showers, highs 9-11 C.

    MONDAY will be partly cloudy after an interval of light rain in the early morning hours to mid-morning possibly on the east coast, lows near 4 C and highs near 10 C.

    TUESDAY will become rather windy and wet with southwest winds 70 to 100 km/hr in exposed areas, lows near 4 C and highs near 10 C.

    WEDNESDAY will be windy and could become very windy for a time around the evening hours, winds southwest at least 70-110 km/hr, possibly some higher gusts on the west coast, 10-20 mm rainfalls, and highs near 11 C.

    THURSDAY will continue breezy to windy with passing showers and highs near 9 C.

    FRIDAY and SATURDAY are looking cool, cloudy and unsettled with highs 9 to 11 C.

    That nicer spell of weather that had been rudely yanked off the table yesterday is now back with high pressure looking more likely to dominate for a few days in the following week. Hopefully this is the only flip-flop we will have before this becomes more of a confirmed trend. Temperatures look like they could recover to mid-teens during this better spell of weather around mid-month.

    My local weather on Friday remained mild but with a thicker overcast the high only reached 7 C. The works crews around here are starting to turn their attention to clearing drains and removing snowbanks that might lead to ponding, so that's a good sign, watching for the first robins now.




  • Sunday, 7 March, 2021

    Forecasts for Ireland


    TRENDS for the week of 7 to 13 March 2021

    -- Temperatures will average 0.5 to 1.5 deg below normal.
    -- Rainfall will approach normal values.
    -- Sunshine will likely be rather limited to perhaps 50 per cent of normal although a few parts of the east and south may run closer to normal values.

    FORECASTS

    TODAY will be partly cloudy to overcast at times, with light southerly winds, isolated showers in western counties, and sunny breaks in the east and south. Highs 8 to 11 C.

    TONIGHT will be partly cloudy to overcast, still a few light showers at times near Atlantic coasts, lows -1 to +3 C east to 5 C west.

    MONDAY will be cloudy with sunny breaks and isolated showers. Highs 9 to 12 C.

    TUESDAY will be mostly cloudy with outbreaks of rain becoming heavier during the afternoon and evening, winds becoming moderate southwest 40 to 70 km/hr. Lows near 4 C and highs near 10 C.

    WEDNESDAY will be a blustery day with variable amounts of cloud, some passing showers at first, and the risk of some strong winds developing late in the day. Lows near 6 C and highs 10 to 12 C. A strong low is predicted on almost all guidance but has only begun to form today south of Nova Scotia, Canada, tracking east-northeast. So with the uncertainty we need to mention with any weather system that hasn't come together yet, there seems to be a high probability of strong westerly winds with this system when it passes north of Ireland on Wednesday night. The winds could peak at 80-120 km/hr especially in more exposed Atlantic counties. Squally showers and perhaps local thunderstorms could develop with the frontal system some time between mid-day and evening Wednesday.

    THURSDAY then looks quite windy too but cold with temperatures falling back to the 5-7 C range, strong west to northwest winds 70-100 km/hr, and passing squally and in some places wintry showers.

    FRIDAY will be somewhat improved but still rather cloudy and unsettled, highs near 10 C.

    The current outlook for the weekend of 13th-14th is for frequent showers and rather cool temperatures, but a nicer spell of weather would quickly build in around Monday 15th and last much of the following week with highs pushing up into the 13-15 C range.

    My local weather on Saturday was partly cloudy and mild with highs near 14 C. It's a little odd to walk around without a jacket past snowbanks that are still quite high in some places, the natural snowcover where undisturbed is now around 40 cms, and shrinking noticeably each day. But there are places where snow plows have piled up ten to fifteen metre high snow banks around public spaces like the arena parking lot near my place. The nights are staying rather mild too but there's a slight freeze by morning usually.




  • Monday, 8 March, 2021

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TRENDS for the week of 8 to 14 March 2021

    -- Temperatures will average near normal values.
    -- Rainfall will approach normal values too, with the usual regional differences.
    -- Sunshine will likely be rather limited to perhaps 50 per cent of normal although a few parts of the east and south may run closer to normal values.
    -- After several almost calm days, this will be a much breezier week, at times windy.

    FORECASTS


    TODAY will be cloudy with sunny breaks and isolated showers. Highs 9 to 12 C.

    TONIGHT some rain at times near the west coast making limited progress further east, overcast, milder with lows around 6 C.

    TUESDAY will be mostly cloudy with outbreaks of rain becoming heavier during the afternoon and evening, winds becoming moderate southwest 40 to 70 km/hr. Lows near 4 C and highs near 11 C.

    WEDNESDAY will be a blustery day with variable amounts of cloud, some passing showers at first, with a frontal band of heavy showers and thunderstorms by afternoon, and the risk of some strong winds developing by afternoon lasting into the overnight hours. Lows near 7 C and highs 12 to 14 C. The low responsible is rapidly developing northeast of Bermuda at this time. Strong southwest winds are expected with its passage on Wednesday afternoon to overnight, that could peak at 80-120 km/hr especially in more exposed Atlantic counties. Large waves and swells are likely on the west coast. Galway Bay may see localized shoreline flooding around high tides.

    THURSDAY then looks quite windy too but cold with temperatures falling back to the 5-7 C range, strong west to northwest winds 70-100 km/hr, and passing squally and, in some higher parts of the north, wintry showers.

    FRIDAY will be somewhat improved but still rather cloudy and unsettled, highs near 10 C.

    The current outlook for the weekend of 13th-14th is for frequent showers and rather cool temperatures, but a nicer spell of weather would quickly build in around Monday 15th and last much of the following week with highs pushing up into the 13-16 C range.

    My local weather turned somewhat colder on Sunday with a bit of snow in the morning, drizzle and low cloud later on and highs only around 3 C. Eastern regions of North America are warming rapidly in a southwest flow and will have an early taste of spring this week with highs 14 to 18 C along the east coast, into the 20s further south. This warm air is being drawn up from the Gulf of Mexico as low pressure develops today over the northern plains states heading for northern Ontario. This is the same impulse that I expect will ripple along in the progressive wave features at upper levels to set up a warmer spell for Ireland in about a week. Until then, the Atlantic has an open door to a series of increasingly vigorous storms, followed by a sort of mirror image dampening down later on in the week until the series is played out, then high pressure should build up close to Ireland, keeping an eye on one minor problem with this, some guidance has the high a bit further west than is ideal so it could be trying to promote a chilly northerly breeze at least for the first day or two. The best of this weather could be right around the 17th.




  • Tuesday, 9 March, 2021

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TRENDS for the week of 9 to 15 March, 2021

    -- Temperatures will average near normal values with some variations day to day.
    -- Rainfalls will also average near normal values, much of the rain will fall from tonight to Sunday.
    -- Sunshine may push towards average late in the interval but will start out rather sparse.


    FORECASTS

    TODAY will be mostly cloudy with some light rain gradually encroaching on western counties, later reaching central counties, as south to southwest breezes begin to freshen to 40-70 km/hr. Highs will be around 10 to 12 C.

    TONIGHT will become windy with rain, briefly heavy, and winds increasing further to southwest 50-80 km/hr. About 5 to 10 mm rainfalls are expected.

    WEDNESDAY will be a blustery day with milder temperatures arriving, together with intervals of rain and some afternoon heavier showers and isolated thunderstorms. Winds will be southwest 50 to 80 km/hr for most places until late afternoon when they may increase to 70-110 km/hr. Highs 12 to 15 C.

    WEDNESDAY NIGHT will be windy and in some places stormy as gale force winds develop with higher gusts expected near both Atlantic and south coasts. Further showers and isolated thunderstorms likely, winds southwest 70-110 km/hr and possibly gusting to 120 km/hr in more exposed locations. Temperatures will be gradually falling to around morning lows of 3-5 C.

    THURSDAY will continue quite windy and considerably colder with passing showers, some of them squally in nature and some also wintry especially on northern hills. Winds westerly 60 to 90 km/hr and highs near 7 C but feeling colder in the wind.

    FRIDAY will be overcast with occasional rain and highs near 9 C.

    SATURDAY will be partly to mostly cloudy with a few showers and highs near 10 C.

    SUNDAY will bring cloud, some fog, rain or drizzle at times, and a milder temperature regime will set in. Highs will reach about 12 C.

    MONDAY to WEDNESDAY are looking generally settled and mild with highs possibly into the 13-15 C range.

    This mild, dry spell shows signs of mutating into a cold, dry second phase as the high responsible for the mild flow may eventually reposition where it is bringing in a northeast to east flow instead, so temperatures in that case would be likely to drop back into the 5-8 C range for daytime highs with frosts returning at night. That part of the forecast is certainly subject to change closer to the time however.

    My local weather on Monday was sunny and pleasant enough at about 5 C, after dark it was clear and already down to -5 C, freezing up the day's slushy surfaces. I hadn't seen a clear sky for a while and noticed that Mars is now considerably fainter than in its autumn opposition, of course that's because it is now almost twice as far from the earth as it was then. Its location in the sky is between similar looking red star Aldebaran (in Taurus) and the Pleiades, or over the left shoulder of Orion (left from the point of view of Orion looking our way, right side in other words). That part of the sky is tilted around so rather than these objects being over top of Orion they are over to its west towards the sunset point. All the other bright planets are in the morning sky at this point, it will be May or June before Jupiter or Saturn show up before midnight. Venus is about to disappear behind the Sun (26 Mar) and will then re-emerge in late April and May as an evening star. The next new moon is the 13th of this month so you would need to be an early riser to see any sign of the Moon before this time next week.




  • Wednesday, 10 March, 2021

    Forecasts for Ireland



    (blog format today) ...

    A powerful Atlantic storm peaked in intensity over the west-central Atlantic yesterday but will only be slightly less intense when it slams into western Ireland later today. Currently located at about 51N 28W, this low will be absorbed by another east of Iceland towards the end of the day, but its strong gradient winds will already be hitting Ireland during that process. Frontal troughs have formed out ahead of the storm and the first of these is already bringing some heavy showers to the east coast. Another one will move into the west soon and make steady progress east, then several more bands of showers and possibly thunderstorms will follow. Winds are fairly sedate now after peaking with a preliminary disturbance last evening. They will ramp up gradually during the mid-day hours and begin to approach warning criteria by late afternoon, staying strong all evening and only moderating slightly after midnight.

    Temperatures will rise fairly steadily as this storm has tapped into subtropical air from north of the Azores and that is streaming in on southwest winds due to reach 70-110 km/hr later on. Highs of 13 to 15 C are likely, quite a bit milder than recent days. Some potential for gusts to 130 km/hr in a few exposed locations this evening, but perhaps a more potent hazard will be storm surge into Galway Bay and battering waves in other west-facing coastal areas, as ships were reporting waves out in the mid-ocean of ten metres. The timing of any coastal flooding around Galway would most likely be midnight to 0300h as there's a natural high tide at 0258h that will probably be enhanced a bit earlier than scheduled by the peak storm winds around midnight.

    Rainfall amounts are not expected to be excessive but there could be some brief heavy downpours and amounts for most places should be in the 10-20 mm range.

    Overnight the winds will veer more to due west which is why I am concerned about Galway Bay having shoreline flooding issues. They will slowly moderate slightly at least back down to 50-80 km/hr by morning. It will turn a bit colder after midnight with a morning temperature around 4 to 6 C in strong westerly winds. Passing squally showers will continue and some might become a bit sleety on higher ground with the freezing level coming down in an airstream that originated in the east Greenland Sea. However, another weak impulse travelling along in the strong westerlies will then arrive later Thursday and an interval of steady rain might be the result with a brief resurgence of stronger wind gusts. Friday sees another similar cycle with temperatures steady around 8 C and further rainfalls both days of about 5-8 mm. New moon is on Saturday so tides will be running fairly high all week with this sustained westerly flow, however the subsequent ones will probably stay below the levels achieved tonight.

    By Saturday yet another weak disturbance is due with another round of showers and blustery westerly winds, temperatures near 7 or 8 C. Sunday sees the start of a milder trend that will be somewhat unsettled at first, until high pressure from the central Atlantic can build in close enough to dry out the flow by about Tuesday. So Sunday and Monday may both have a fair amount of cloud, showers or drizzle, and highs near 12 C. From Tuesday to about Friday it looks dry and perhaps mostly sunny with high pressure drifting in almost overhead by late in the week. Highs could edge up towards 15 C in bright sunshine but nights will continue to be rather chilly under the clear skies, and local fog patches are possible.

    The further evolution of this high seems likely to take it a bit further north to begin a weak easterly flow at the surface levels over most of Britain and Ireland, but it may not turn that much cooler except for onshore sea breeze cooling in Leinster, so would suggest by the following weekend highs might have fallen back to 8-11 C there and remain 12-14 C in parts of the west. This wouldn't have to change too much to become like a notable warm spell under high pressure in March of 2012. But that may be a bridge too far for this pattern, eventually it looks like a rather variable regime will return with weak frontal systems, and transient highs peaking for a day or two, to provide a fairly average sort of outcome for the last third of March.

    My local weather on Tuesday was hazy sunshine and mild temperatures near 7 C. There are weak troughs moving by with cloud and virga at times but nothing reaching the ground during the past day. New York City had its warmest day of the spring so far at 18 C.




  • Thursday, 11 March, 2021

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TRENDS for the week of 11 to 17 March 2021 --

    -- Temperatures will average near normal values, with a slight upward trend in general.
    -- Rainfall will average 75 per cent of normal values.
    -- Sunshine will also average 75 per cent of normal values.


    FORECASTS

    TODAY will be breezy to windy at times, and colder with passing squally showers, some risk of hail and thunder, and a few more wintry showers possible on higher terrain mostly. Highs about 7 or 8 C, feeling colder in westerly winds reaching 50-80 km/hr.

    TONIGHT there may be an interval of steady light rain (sleet on some northern hills), lows 2 to 5 C, winds still quite strong at southwest 40-70 km/hr.

    FRIDAY will be another unsettled day with moderate westerly winds 40-70 km/hr, passing showers, and highs between 8 and 10 C.

    SATURDAY will be windy and rather cold with occasional showers, winds west to northwest 60 to 90 km/hr, and lows near 3 C, highs near 8 C.

    SUNDAY will turn milder with some light rain or drizzle in some western counties mainly, partly cloudy to overcast elsewhere, highs near 12 C. Not as windy, but moderate west backing to southwest breezes.

    MONDAY will be partly cloudy to sunny, with a few showers reaching Connacht and west Ulster late in the day, generally light winds, highs 12 to 14 C.

    TUESDAY and WEDNESDAY will probably bring more generous amounts of sunshine and mild daytime readings in the 12 to 15 C range, slight cooling from sea breezes more likely in east than on other coasts, and a larger range from overnight lows (near frost levels) to daytime highs.

    The outlook calls for the high pressure area responsible for the improved weather to shift somewhat further north which could bring temperatures down slightly, or considerably in the case of the Leinster shoreline areas subject to cooling sea breezes in easterly winds. Highs there might drop back to 8-10 C while other regions stay closer to 12 or even 14 C. Nights will be chilly with scattered frosts.

    This settled interval will gradually yield to a rather cloudy and slightly unsettled regime with no strong pressure systems in control, just weak ebbs and flows mainly from the north or east meaning it may be somewhat colder than average towards the following week (after 20th of March).

    My local weather on Wednesday was sunny and cool with highs only about 4 C, passing snow showers off to our north didn't quite deliver here but we could see the snow falling on nearby hills. It was another very mild day in eastern parts of North America with some places reaching 20 C.


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  • Friday, 12 March, 2021

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TRENDS for the week of 12 to 18 March 2021

    -- Temperatures will average slightly below normal, getting a bit warmer at least for daytime readings towards end of this interval.
    -- Rainfall will begin to fade out of the picture after Sunday, so totals may come in around 50 to 75 per cent of normal.
    -- Sunshine will begin to improve at the same time, the results should be almost normal amounts but the interval will start out well below that.


    FORECASTS

    TODAY will be blustery with further showers of rain, hail and sleet, some thunder in places, and longer or steadier rain towards late afternoon and evening. Winds southwest 40 to 70 km/hr, except 70 to 110 km/hr in exposed Atlantic coastal counties, and highs 8 to 10 C. Rainfalls about 5-10 mm.

    TONIGHT will be partly to mostly cloudy with showers, moderate westerly winds 40 to 70 km/hr, lows 2 to 5 C.

    SATURDAY will be breezy, cool with passing showers, some with hail and thunder, winds west to northwest 50 to 80 km/hr, some higher gusts near west coast, and highs 7 to 9 C.

    SUNDAY will turn somewhat milder, with some fog or mist at times, patchy light rain or drizzle, lows near 4 C and highs near 11 C. Less windy although some gusts to 50 km/hr from westerly breezes.

    MONDAY will be partly cloudy to overcast, with a rather weak frontal band pushing through northern and some inland western counties, reaching the east coast late in the day in an even weaker condition, highs near 12 C.

    TUESDAY will be sunny with cloudy intervals, lows 2 to 5 C and highs 12 to 15 C.

    WEDNESDAY will be sunny with cloudy intervals, after some patchy morning fog and frost, lows -1 to +3 C and highs 13 to 16 C, warmest in the inland southwest and west.

    By THURSDAY there will be the start of a cooling trend again as the high pressure area responsible for the improved weather edges further north and allows light northeast winds to develop. This could cool Leinster and east Ulster to around 8-10 C while keeping some counties further west milder at 12 to 15 C still. However, by FRIDAY and SATURDAY a more organized push of cooler air from the east will bring down temperatures to the 7-9 C level in all regions, with slight frosts likely at night. This cooler regime looks like it may dominate the following week too, with a slightly more unsettled theme as the high moves away further and weakens, allowing a more variable regime but mainly northerly to easterly flow during that, rather than a resumption of Atlantic dominated flow; that may follow eventually.

    My local weather on Thursday was sunny and quite cold until mid-day when it finally edged above freezing, with rather light winds it felt warmer than the air temperature which was around 2-4 C. This colder spell has kept our dwindling snow pack from being further reduced and it remains about 30-40 cms in shaded areas, out in the sun it is just evaporating into the dry air slowly. The mild spell in eastern regions is being ended by a large outbreak of arctic air pushing south from central Canada and the weekend will be a lot colder than this past week with outbreaks of rain or sleet along frontal zones setting up over the Ohio valley and central plains states.


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