COVID-19: Vaccine and testing procedures Megathread Part 3 - Read OP

jackryan34 wrote: »

Micky no offence but this might be too advanced for you.

Will be alot of maths, probabilities of two events occurring, p (a and b )calculations, compound probabilities, its a difficult question

Might be better if you sit this one out

Thanks

Nope, i won’t be sitting it out. But carry on.

When would we expect to have all group 7 vaccinated with first dose? This is 18-64 at high risk to severe disease. That would mean all over 65 and all adults at high risk (anyone with underlying condition). Surely before end of May we'll have this if supply is as currently protected. Any idea of how many people are in groups 1-7? Hard to justify anything about level 2 restrictions at this stage I think.

Klonker wrote: »

When would we expect to have all group 7 vaccinated with first dose? This is 18-64 at high risk to severe disease. That would mean all over 65 and all adults at high risk (anyone with underlying condition). Surely before end of May we'll have this if supply is as currently protected. Any idea of how many people are in groups 1-7? Hard to justify anything about level 2 restrictions at this stage I think.

We were moved to group 4, some posters suggested this group was supposed to have been started this week and my own GP said the 18 - 64 with high risk would be started in Galway anyway within the next three weeks. But seeing as a few of the estimates have been missed or shortage of vaccines, probably at the starting of April we'll see group 4 starting to get vaccinated.

Aegir wrote: »

On what basis would they block deliveries to the uk?

Someone else who can't answer a question, should the EU follow what the UK is doing and block EU produced vaccine exports in the same way as AZ produced vaccines aren't leaving the UK?

astrofool wrote: »

Someone else who can't answer a question, should the EU follow what the UK is doing and block EU produced vaccine exports in the same way as AZ produced vaccines aren't leaving the UK?

Because presumably the astra zeneca contract actually strongly ring fences the UK production until the first 100 million dose.
I know the lawyers will sort it out in the end but that seems to be the explanation. Remember though the final contract with the UK was signed quiet late they had received substantial funding long before then and we don't know what the text of those agreements are. As far as I know they had not received funding from the EU until after the final contract was signed.

The UK isn't blocking vaccine export it's pretty simple really. Maybe astra Zeneca are being dodgy but that's a different statement.

eoinbn wrote: »

There are a few factors.
Do we continue to only use mRNA on over 70s?
Can Astrazeneca deliver anywhere near their Q1 target?
Both of these play a roll. If the over 70s start getting AZ then it will delay group 7. If they don't then it should happen by mid April. If they do then late April or early May. I think those are conservative estimates assuming AZ deliver 70% of their target.

I’m group 7, wasn’t expecting it that soon. Will we be getting it through GPs or somewhere else?

Melanchthon wrote: »

Because presumably the astra zeneca contract actually strongly ring fences the UK production until the first 100 million dose.
I know the lawyers will sort it out in the end but that seems to be the explanation. Remember though the final contract with the UK was signed quiet late they had received substantial funding long before then and we don't know what the text of those agreements are. As far as I know they had not received funding from the EU until after the final contract was signed.

The UK isn't blocking vaccine export it's pretty simple really. Maybe astra Zeneca are being dodgy but that's a different statement.

It seems to me like AZ signed different contracts with different people promising different things and are happy to take the hit on the EU contract but not the UK contract.

It is what it is but it sucks for us.

Melanchthon wrote: »

Because presumably the astra zeneca contract actually strongly ring fences the UK production until the first 100 million dose.
I know the lawyers will sort it out in the end but that seems to be the explanation. Remember though the final contract with the UK was signed quiet late they had received substantial funding long before then and we don't know what the text of those agreements are. As far as I know they had not received funding from the EU until after the final contract was signed.

The UK isn't blocking vaccine export it's pretty simple really. Maybe astra Zeneca are being dodgy but that's a different statement.

You are bizarrely trying to justify why there is an export ban from the UK, to try explain that there is no UK export ban. As I said in a previous post that the usual stooges won’t reply to, regardless of if Boris paid and made every vial himself, how many vaccines have the UK exported? To anywhere?

If the UK government have demanded all supply and the supplier is breaking other supply agreements, then it is an export ban. It’s the same with changes recently in the northern Irish protocol by the Uk, change the wording slightly and lie through their teeth, trumpian politics at its worst.

Regardless of all of the above, and everything ****ty the Uk has done, should the EU stop vaccines being produced on EU soil from being sent to the UK, same as the Uk have stopped vaccines produced in the uk from being sent to the EU? And I am not interested in a comment about corporations and business when it suits, AZ decision making is by the UK government right now, this is beyond corporations.

Tippbhoy1 wrote: »

Replied to you twice and you ignored each time. The above is lies.

https://www.politico.eu/article/the-key-differences-between-the-eu-and-uk-astrazeneca-contracts/

You should lobby politico to retract this article so.

The level of specificity is partially due to the legal systems they're based on. The U.K. contract is written in English law, which will judge whether both parties delivered the goods based on the exact wording of the contract. The EU contract is written in Belgian law, which focuses on whether both parties tried their best to deliver the goods and acted in good faith.

stefanovich wrote: »

https://www.politico.eu/article/the-key-differences-between-the-eu-and-uk-astrazeneca-contracts/

You should lobby politico to retract this article so.

Replied to you twice, on that article from one source that you constantly pull out, and supplied other sources of information that contradict it. You’re not interested in debate you are only interested in spamming here with your agenda.

CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »

It seems to me like AZ signed different contracts with different people promising different things and are happy to take the hit on the EU contract but not the UK contract.

It is what it is but it sucks for us.

I agree with this.
And I don’t have a huge issue with the UK nationalising their production in the short term, but the hypocrisy of pretending they haven’t it is where I have the issue.

However, I see no reason why any AZ produced in a European factory, supported with EU money, should similarly go anywhere until the AZ contract with the EU is fulfilled.

Aegir wrote: »

can you provide some evidence to support this claim?



are Astra Zeneca vaccines going from the EU to the UK then?

They have in the past, I don’t know if they are currently, I doubt it. AZ are trying to use EU based and funded facilities to supply outside Europe. We can stop the export of those, use them in our own citizens, and point disappointed countries over to AZ for follow up. I doubt it’s much at this stage as the pocket has already been picked.