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COVID-19: Vaccine and testing procedures Megathread Part 3 - Read OP

Beasty

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Thread 2

No anti-vax stuff in this thread - it's to discuss the various vaccines available and how they are getting rolled out, as well as testing procedures

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Micky 32

jackryan34 wrote: »

Micky no offence but this might be too advanced for you.

Will be alot of maths, probabilities of two events occurring, p (a and b )calculations, compound probabilities, its a difficult question

Might be better if you sit this one out

Thanks

Nope, i won’t be sitting it out. But carry on.

jackryan34

Danzy wrote: »

Think it is realistic,

It think it is too

Can anyone here model it using the known vaccine data?

Anyone have BI modeling tools or skills?

My napkin math wouldn't be up to it

jackryan34

Micky 32 wrote: »

Nope, i won’t be sitting it out. But carry on.

Help me then

Happydays2020

Old news?

https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-countries-moderna-coronavirus-vaccine-order/

Klonker

When would we expect to have all group 7 vaccinated with first dose? This is 18-64 at high risk to severe disease. That would mean all over 65 and all adults at high risk (anyone with underlying condition). Surely before end of May we'll have this if supply is as currently protected. Any idea of how many people are in groups 1-7? Hard to justify anything about level 2 restrictions at this stage I think.

marno21

https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1369747016167866368?

Both the UK and US now planning to be over the hill in May. Should free up some pressure on supply chains around June.

At the rate vaccines will be arriving in July, possibly upto 4-500k per week, a drop of a 100k in March becomes a delay of 1/2 days in July. We start going so fast we finish around the same time regardless of what happens now.

bodhrandude

Klonker wrote: »

When would we expect to have all group 7 vaccinated with first dose? This is 18-64 at high risk to severe disease. That would mean all over 65 and all adults at high risk (anyone with underlying condition). Surely before end of May we'll have this if supply is as currently protected. Any idea of how many people are in groups 1-7? Hard to justify anything about level 2 restrictions at this stage I think.

We were moved to group 4, some posters suggested this group was supposed to have been started this week and my own GP said the 18 - 64 with high risk would be started in Galway anyway within the next three weeks. But seeing as a few of the estimates have been missed or shortage of vaccines, probably at the starting of April we'll see group 4 starting to get vaccinated.

eoinbn

Klonker wrote: »

When would we expect to have all group 7 vaccinated with first dose? This is 18-64 at high risk to severe disease. That would mean all over 65 and all adults at high risk (anyone with underlying condition). Surely before end of May we'll have this if supply is as currently protected. Any idea of how many people are in groups 1-7? Hard to justify anything about level 2 restrictions at this stage I think.

There are a few factors.
Do we continue to only use mRNA on over 70s?
Can Astrazeneca deliver anywhere near their Q1 target?
Both of these play a roll. If the over 70s start getting AZ then it will delay group 7. If they don't then it should happen by mid April. If they do then late April or early May. I think those are conservative estimates assuming AZ deliver 70% of their target.

astrofool

Aegir wrote: »

On what basis would they block deliveries to the uk?

Someone else who can't answer a question, should the EU follow what the UK is doing and block EU produced vaccine exports in the same way as AZ produced vaccines aren't leaving the UK?

JacksonHeightsOwn

astrofool wrote: »

Someone else who can't answer a question, should the EU follow what the UK is doing and block EU produced vaccine exports in the same way as AZ produced vaccines aren't leaving the UK?

Although I think its rather immoral to do that,

What's good for the goose is good for the gander, so yes, keep them until we've enough people jabbed.

No one wanted a vaccine war, but in all honesty, we all knew it would happen.

Time for the EU to use their financial muscle to drag us over the line.

Melanchthon

astrofool wrote: »

Someone else who can't answer a question, should the EU follow what the UK is doing and block EU produced vaccine exports in the same way as AZ produced vaccines aren't leaving the UK?

Because presumably the astra zeneca contract actually strongly ring fences the UK production until the first 100 million dose.
I know the lawyers will sort it out in the end but that seems to be the explanation. Remember though the final contract with the UK was signed quiet late they had received substantial funding long before then and we don't know what the text of those agreements are. As far as I know they had not received funding from the EU until after the final contract was signed.

The UK isn't blocking vaccine export it's pretty simple really. Maybe astra Zeneca are being dodgy but that's a different statement.

Melanchthon

chrisbonnie wrote: »

Although I think its rather immoral to do that,

What's good for the goose is good for the gander, so yes, keep them until we've enough people jabbed.

Isn't what your proposing actually much worse than what the UK has done and still worse than what the US did.

The UK seems to have signed solid agreements that guarantee first preference on UK production.

The US was very open that they would not be allowing vaccine exports.

These aren't great things but they are very different to changing the rules after the fact, and something they were taking a strong moral stance against Trump's attitude last year will then just come across incredibly hypocritical and unreliable.

It's a sh-t situation, I don't understand though why the EU hasn't been moving quicker in relation to the potential to buy serum institute production, AFAIK they are still only examining the plant

Gael23

eoinbn wrote: »

There are a few factors.
Do we continue to only use mRNA on over 70s?
Can Astrazeneca deliver anywhere near their Q1 target?
Both of these play a roll. If the over 70s start getting AZ then it will delay group 7. If they don't then it should happen by mid April. If they do then late April or early May. I think those are conservative estimates assuming AZ deliver 70% of their target.

I’m group 7, wasn’t expecting it that soon. Will we be getting it through GPs or somewhere else?

[Deleted User]

astrofool wrote: »

Someone else who can't answer a question, should the EU follow what the UK is doing and block EU produced vaccine exports in the same way as AZ produced vaccines aren't leaving the UK?

No. Good enough?

Why would the EU prevent Pfizer delivering vaccines to the UK, because Astra Zeneca isn’t delivering as many doses as the EU would like?

On what basis do you think they should?

This, of course is ignoring the two simple facts that seem to have escaped you.

The EU is a political organisation, not a pharma company and therefore does not make vaccines

The uk is not blocking exports.

CIARAN_BOYLE

Melanchthon wrote: »

Because presumably the astra zeneca contract actually strongly ring fences the UK production until the first 100 million dose.
I know the lawyers will sort it out in the end but that seems to be the explanation. Remember though the final contract with the UK was signed quiet late they had received substantial funding long before then and we don't know what the text of those agreements are. As far as I know they had not received funding from the EU until after the final contract was signed.

The UK isn't blocking vaccine export it's pretty simple really. Maybe astra Zeneca are being dodgy but that's a different statement.

It seems to me like AZ signed different contracts with different people promising different things and are happy to take the hit on the EU contract but not the UK contract.

It is what it is but it sucks for us.

stefanovich

CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »

It seems to me like AZ signed different contracts with different people promising different things and are happy to take the hit on the EU contract but not the UK contract.

It is what it is but it sucks for us.

The EU contract is under Belgian law and talks about "best effort" and gives more leeway. The UK contract is under British law and is more specific and strict.

The UK have a better contract.

Tippbhoy1

Melanchthon wrote: »

Because presumably the astra zeneca contract actually strongly ring fences the UK production until the first 100 million dose.
I know the lawyers will sort it out in the end but that seems to be the explanation. Remember though the final contract with the UK was signed quiet late they had received substantial funding long before then and we don't know what the text of those agreements are. As far as I know they had not received funding from the EU until after the final contract was signed.

The UK isn't blocking vaccine export it's pretty simple really. Maybe astra Zeneca are being dodgy but that's a different statement.

You are bizarrely trying to justify why there is an export ban from the UK, to try explain that there is no UK export ban. As I said in a previous post that the usual stooges won’t reply to, regardless of if Boris paid and made every vial himself, how many vaccines have the UK exported? To anywhere?

If the UK government have demanded all supply and the supplier is breaking other supply agreements, then it is an export ban. It’s the same with changes recently in the northern Irish protocol by the Uk, change the wording slightly and lie through their teeth, trumpian politics at its worst.

Regardless of all of the above, and everything ****ty the Uk has done, should the EU stop vaccines being produced on EU soil from being sent to the UK, same as the Uk have stopped vaccines produced in the uk from being sent to the EU? And I am not interested in a comment about corporations and business when it suits, AZ decision making is by the UK government right now, this is beyond corporations.

Tippbhoy1

stefanovich wrote: »

The EU contract is under Belgian law and talks about "best effort" and gives more leeway. The UK contract is under British law and is more specific and strict.

The UK have a better contract.

Replied to you twice and you ignored each time. The above is lies.

stefanovich

Tippbhoy1 wrote: »

Replied to you twice and you ignored each time. The above is lies.

https://www.politico.eu/article/the-key-differences-between-the-eu-and-uk-astrazeneca-contracts/

You should lobby politico to retract this article so.

The level of specificity is partially due to the legal systems they're based on. The U.K. contract is written in English law, which will judge whether both parties delivered the goods based on the exact wording of the contract. The EU contract is written in Belgian law, which focuses on whether both parties tried their best to deliver the goods and acted in good faith.

Tippbhoy1

Aegir wrote: »

No. Good enough?

Why would the EU prevent Pfizer delivering vaccines to the UK, because Astra Zeneca isn’t delivering as many doses as the EU would like?

On what basis do you think they should?

This, of course is ignoring the two simple facts that seem to have escaped you.

The EU is a political organisation, not a pharma company and therefore does not make vaccines

The uk is not blocking exports.

Why-because other nations have started vaccine nationalism such as the UK, and to save EU lives they will have to reciprocate.

The UK government have Astrazeneca by the balls, therefore it is political. EU manufacturing, paid for by the EU, was used to supply the UK but not vice versa. This can’t continue

Tippbhoy1

stefanovich wrote: »

https://www.politico.eu/article/the-key-differences-between-the-eu-and-uk-astrazeneca-contracts/

You should lobby politico to retract this article so.

Replied to you twice, on that article from one source that you constantly pull out, and supplied other sources of information that contradict it. You’re not interested in debate you are only interested in spamming here with your agenda.

stefanovich

Tippbhoy1 wrote: »

Replied to you twice, on that article from one source that you constantly pull out, and supplied other sources of information that contradict it. You’re not interested in debate you are only interested in spamming here with your agenda.

Wasn't your source also Politico? I thought they are liars.

Tippbhoy1

CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »

It seems to me like AZ signed different contracts with different people promising different things and are happy to take the hit on the EU contract but not the UK contract.

It is what it is but it sucks for us.

I agree with this.
And I don’t have a huge issue with the UK nationalising their production in the short term, but the hypocrisy of pretending they haven’t it is where I have the issue.

However, I see no reason why any AZ produced in a European factory, supported with EU money, should similarly go anywhere until the AZ contract with the EU is fulfilled.

[Deleted User]

Tippbhoy1 wrote: »

You are bizarrely trying to justify why there is an export ban from the UK

there is no export ban

[Deleted User]

Tippbhoy1 wrote: »

I agree with this.
And I don’t have a huge issue with the UK nationalising their production in the short term, but the hypocrisy of pretending they haven’t it is where I have the issue.

can you provide some evidence to support this claim?

Tippbhoy1 wrote: »

However, I see no reason why any AZ produced in a European factory, supported with EU money, should similarly go anywhere until the AZ contract with the EU is fulfilled.

are Astra Zeneca vaccines going from the EU to the UK then?

Tippbhoy1

Aegir wrote: »

there is no export ban

Semantics. Keep telling yourself that.

Tippbhoy1

Aegir wrote: »

can you provide some evidence to support this claim?

are Astra Zeneca vaccines going from the EU to the UK then?

They have in the past, I don’t know if they are currently, I doubt it. AZ are trying to use EU based and funded facilities to supply outside Europe. We can stop the export of those, use them in our own citizens, and point disappointed countries over to AZ for follow up. I doubt it’s much at this stage as the pocket has already been picked.

Tippbhoy1

Aegir wrote: »

can you provide some evidence to support this claim?

It’s been done in such a way it will take years of investigation to prove it. The Uk government are calling all the shots with AZ. This is obvious to everyone. This is a discussion forum not a court of law. You call it the British vaccine yourself don’t you?

[Deleted User]

Tippbhoy1 wrote: »

Semantics. Keep telling yourself that.

How many vaccine doses has Canada supplied to the EU? How many shots have come from Israel? How many vaccines have come from Australia?

Do either of these countries have an export ban on vaccines and should also be accused of vaccine nationalism?

[Deleted User]

Tippbhoy1 wrote: »

You call it the British vaccine yourself don’t you?

nope, never called it that once.

Tippbhoy1 wrote: »

It’s been done in such a way it will take years of investigation to prove it. The Uk government are calling all the shots with AZ. This is obvious to everyone. This is a discussion forum not a court of law.

aaah, we all know it's the truth, but "The Man" is covering it all up.

could you enlighten me, how di the 96,001 people who have been given the AZ vaccine in Ireland get hold of it?