COVID-19: Vaccine and testing procedures Megathread Part 3 - Read OP

Van.Bosch · 09-03-2021 01:45PM

IrishStuff09 wrote: »

10% of the adult population have now been vaccinated with at least one dose

It’s a pity we don’t know how many are in each cohort, would be a good graphic to see split out that way.

trellheim · 09-03-2021 01:45PM

It literally says it in the article that the 124,000 are expected first week of April, 1 week later than planned. 1.1 Million expected by end of March, 1.24 million first week of April.

Reid told the committee the current schedule is 1.2 million first week of April

Yes, I can read, thanks. They were supposed to arrive previous week. On previous experience this will slip again. Reid was on interview yesterday (?) ( we talked about it here) that they were supposed to arrive before the end of the month. So its changing by the day. So far all changes have been downwards and the trend shows no signs of stopping.

stephenjmcd · 09-03-2021 01:50PM

trellheim wrote: »

Yes, I can read, thanks. They were supposed to arrive previous week. On previous experience this will slip again. Reid was on interview yesterday (?) ( we talked about it here) that they were supposed to arrive before the end of the month. So its changing by the day. So far all changes have been downwards and the trend shows no signs of stopping.

No need to try & be smart firstly, the reasoning was clearly explained in the article & at the committee meeting this morning if you watch it.

Reid was interviewed last week I believe, possibly nearly 10 days ago on RTE.

Today it's the latest information that's available, the target delivery will be out by 1 week according to latest projections. It looks like last week of March & first week of April should see circa 300k doses delivered into the country. 175 last few days of March and the remainder first week.

That's what they've to go on so it's what we've to go on, maybe it'll slip again maybe it won't, none of us know that, so your dealing with conjecture there & the creating of hypothetical situations.

If its a 1 week delay in the total being 1.2 million that's not a big issue in the grand scheme of things is it ?
HSE are at the hands of the manufacturers here unfortunately but being out by 1 week on reaching 1.2 million deliveries after all the issues in the last few weeks for me wouldn't be the worst case situation to be in.

NeuralNetwork · 09-03-2021 01:52PM

It’s not a trend based issue though. There are 3 suppliers and they’re relatively easy to understand. Pfizer / BioNTech (& with support from Sanofi) are expanding production rapidly with a lead time involved and Moderna are expanding too but more like AstraZeneca, have a big dependence on contractors, but seems more realistic and transparent about any hiccups.

J&J / Janssen should be able to produce very large volumes as they’re a huge operation, on similar scale to Pfizer.

The only trend is there are hiccups in a complicated supply chain.

There are lead times and the EU spread its bets. Had Sanofi & Merck both had successful projects with their own vaccines, we would be in a very different position now.

The mRNA candidates were underestimated as they were outliers. The reality has been that it’s been a slightly more conventional (only by comparison) vaccine causing most hiccups with supply.

09-03-2021 01:54PM

HSE are failing to mention that the AZ dosing schedule should have greatly eased initial supply issues. If it had been 4 weeks you'd have to keep a reserve, and April and May's supply would have been mostly second doses. As it stands you can just dish it out fairly sharpish knowing you won't need to start second doses until June.

stephenjmcd · 09-03-2021 01:57PM

Deleted User wrote: »

HSE are failing to mention that the AZ dosing schedule should have greatly eased initial supply issues. If it had been 4 weeks you'd have to keep a reserve, and April and May's supply would have been mostly second doses. As it stands you can just dish it out fairly sharpish knowing you won't need to start second doses until June.

Yeah that's a plus for sure.

You can see the situation you've outlined with Moderna whereby they've been told keep 50% of each delivery back for second doses because we just aren't 100% sure on the supply chain in the short term.

Sweet.Science · 09-03-2021 01:59PM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

It literally says it in the article that the balance is expected first week of April, 1 week later than planned. 1.1 Million expected by end of March, 1.2 million first week of April, which is a week late

Reid told the committee the current schedule is 1.2 million to the first week of April

You genuinely still take their promises at face value ? At what stage will you stop ?

RavenBea17b · 09-03-2021 02:01PM

Deleted User wrote: »

HSE are failing to mention that the AZ dosing schedule should have greatly eased initial supply issues. If it had been 4 weeks you'd have to keep a reserve, and April and May's supply would have been mostly second doses. As it stands you can just dish it out fairly sharpish knowing you won't need to start second doses until June.

Agreed, AZ is twelve weeks, HSE should have been getting people jabbed, and reserving in a timely manner.
HSE has got things right in some areas, processes but my goodness, it really hasn't in many other critical processes - including a proper BCP if timelines for delivery shift. By now, ALL our precious elders should have had at least one jab.
Accountability is key - lacking though for so many reasons and causes. :rolleyes:

stephenjmcd · 09-03-2021 02:01PM

Sweet.Science wrote: »

You genuinely still take their promises at face value ? At what stage will you stop ?

Stop what ? what else can you take it at, posting here is called having an opinion to start with which is allowed.

Do you deal with suppliers in daily work ? I do, you take their word on future projections and that's all you can do based on whatever your underlying contract is. If there's bumps in the road you address them as you come across them, which is exactly what it looks like is happening with up to 17 such bumps so far.

What else can be done to influence it ? Tell me what else can the HSE do to influence what manufacturers tell them. They are purely relaying the information they get and planning based on said information which can only be dealt with at face value

titan18 · 09-03-2021 02:03PM

astrofool wrote: »

J&J is 2 days from EMA approval, EU will also be taking all of the supply that's being produced.

Novartis is producing a few different vaccine, but all orders are in already, anything we get from there would be after the EU allocation has been made.

Does the EU actually have Novartis ordered and how much if so?

bmm · 09-03-2021 02:06PM

HSE staff who refused to to go work/office since Mar 2020 are now getting vaccinated ahead of the old and vulnerable . Banana republic hasn't changed!

Van.Bosch · 09-03-2021 02:13PM

bmm wrote: »

HSE staff who refused to to go work/office since Mar 2020 are now getting vaccinated ahead of the old and vulnerable . Banana republic hasn't changed!

What do you mean by “refused” to go? Government guidance is WFH if you can?

Wolf359f · 09-03-2021 02:13PM

bmm wrote: »

HSE staff who refused to to go work/office since Mar 2020 are now getting vaccinated ahead of the old and vulnerable . Banana republic hasn't changed!

They point blank refused?
Anyway, if we expect the HSE to be able to through the massive backlog of outpatient appointments etc... And they will need 12 weeks for their second jab, would it be a good idea to start getting them vaccinated pronto, so they can all be given a date to get back into the office?
I can't imagine it would be effective if they were coming back in dribs and drabs and some still waiting for their second dose etc...

seamus · 09-03-2021 02:17PM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Do you deal with suppliers in daily work ? I do, you take their word on future projections and that's all you can do based on whatever your underlying contract is. If there's bumps in the road you address them as you come across them, which is exactly what it looks like is happening with up to 17 such bumps so far.

Sure, but when it comes to AstraZeneca, we now know that their promises are worthless.

If they notify of an under-delivery that will be "later" corrected, I would scratch that off the projections completely and consider it a bonus if they do later fulfil it.

Sweet.Science · 09-03-2021 02:21PM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Stop what ? what else can you take it at, posting here is called having an opinion to start with which is allowed.

Do you deal with suppliers in daily work ? I do, you take their word on future projections and that's all you can do based on whatever your underlying contract is. If there's bumps in the road you address them as you come across them, which is exactly what it looks like is happening with up to 17 such bumps so far.

What else can be done to influence it ? Tell me what else can the HSE do to influence what manufacturers tell them. They are purely relaying the information they get and planning based on said information which can only be dealt with at face value

Yes . At the start you could take them at face value . However when they keep missing targets its naive to continue to do so

stefanovich · 09-03-2021 02:23PM

Van.Bosch wrote: »

What do you mean by “refused” to go? Government guidance is WFH if you can?

So why do they need vaccination then if they can work from home?

stephenjmcd · 09-03-2021 02:24PM

seamus wrote: »

Sure, but when it comes to AstraZeneca, we now know that their promises are worthless.

If they notify of an under-delivery that will be "later" corrected, I would scratch that off the projections completely and consider it a bonus if they do later fulfil it.

Oh I agree, with AZ they've now a track record of not delivering, once or twice I can accept, but late notice cuts too frequently no sorry, if they were a supplier of any other good or service in my line of work they'd have been dropped by now.

But the point stands about face value, all that can be done is take them at face value because we don't have the option of dropping them for example. Plan for the worst with AZ and hope for the best

stephenjmcd · 09-03-2021 02:26PM

Sweet.Science wrote: »

Yes . At the start you could take them at face value . However when they keep missing targets its naive to continue to do so

Which is why there's a 60% cut built into the Q2 projections based on this.

AZ say they'll deliver what they expected to, all the HSE can do is take that at face value through Q1 and as they've done project out the experience of Q1 into Q2

ACitizenErased · 09-03-2021 02:28PM

https://twitter.com/coronavirusgoo1/status/1369277280636309508?s=21

brickster69 · 09-03-2021 02:36PM

J&J under stress

https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/exclusive-jj-under-stress-to-meet-eu-secondquarter-vaccine-supply-goal--source-2441192

brickster69 · 09-03-2021 02:38PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

https://twitter.com/coronavirusgoo1/status/1369277280636309508?s=21

South African President. But, but but we gave them away :eek:

Quantum Baloney · 09-03-2021 02:38PM

Jeez that Pascal Soriot fellah is a looker ain't he. I wonder which circle of hell he collected the vaccine adjuvants from.

Van.Bosch · 09-03-2021 02:42PM

stefanovich wrote: »

So why do they need vaccination then if they can work from home?

I didn’t say they should be vaccinated, just queried why they were deemed to have “refused” to go to the office.

stefanovich · 09-03-2021 02:43PM

Quantum Baloney wrote: »

Jeez that Pascal Soriot fellah is a looker ain't he. I wonder which circle of hell he collected the vaccine adjuvants from.

He does appear to indulge in his product.

trellheim · 09-03-2021 02:44PM

Worse again now. Mickey martin only expecting 850k by the end of the month, so from 1.7 to 1.4 to 1.2 to 1, and now down to 850k

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/taoiseach-disappointed-vaccine-supply-is-less-than-half-of-forecast-1.4505282

Almost 1.7 million vaccines would be delivered to Ireland in the first quarter of the year, the high-level taskforce on Covid-19 vaccination forecast in early January.

By the end of February, 520,000 doses had been supplied, and total deliveries at the end of March are not expected to exceed 850,000 doses.

fk sake so now a delivery in March of only 330,000 ya gotta wonder what they are up to and this shows no signs of stopping here or in April

Renault 5 · 09-03-2021 02:44PM

Quantum Baloney wrote: »

Jeez that Pascal Soriot fellah is a looker ain't he. I wonder which circle of hell he collected the vaccine adjuvants from.

Michael Douglas could play him in a movie.

stefanovich · 09-03-2021 02:44PM

Van.Bosch wrote: »

I didn’t say they should be vaccinated, just queried why they were deemed to have “refused” to go to the office.

Either they needed to be at work and refused and therefore got vaccinated OR
They can work from home and don't need to be. I see no other option.

Sweet.Science · 09-03-2021 02:47PM

brickster69 wrote: »

J&J under stress

https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/exclusive-jj-under-stress-to-meet-eu-secondquarter-vaccine-supply-goal--source-2441192

Doesn't bode well but to be expected. Hopefully it's not a big reduction to the EU

Gael23 · 09-03-2021 02:52PM

So we are now nearly 50% below target

ACitizenErased · 09-03-2021 02:53PM

brickster69 wrote: »

J&J under stress

https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/exclusive-jj-under-stress-to-meet-eu-secondquarter-vaccine-supply-goal--source-2441192

"The official added the company had said it was not impossible to meet the goal, but that it showed caution."

So... they don't know

COVID-19: Vaccine and testing procedures Megathread Part 3 - Read OP

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