COVID-19: Vaccine and testing procedures Megathread Part 3 - Read OP

Sky King

I've heard a lot of people saying J & J vaccine will be 'doing the heavy lifting' but according to thejournal.ie this week - we'll only be getting 150,000 doses a month for April May and June.

I know it's a one-shot but it's less than 10% of our population over 3 key months. Hardly 'heavy lifting' is it?

Source:
https://www.thejournal.ie/explainer-johnson-and-johnson-vaccine-5369624-Mar2021/

lee_baby_simms

lee_baby_simms wrote: »

Should this be a cause for concern? I hope not.

https://wkzo.com/2021/03/08/vaccine-response-may-be-weaker-in-elderly-merck-drug-shows-promise-in-reducing-virus-level/

Vaccine response is expected to be weaker in elderly, for the exact same reasons as viruses tend to be more serious in the elderly, the immune system is more sluggish in general, and its the bodies own immune system that ultimately decides how much or a response there will be to the vaccine. Is it concerning.

Maybe not so much

"Recent reports from Israel, England and Scotland show that rates of hospitalization and severe disease progression are significantly lower than in the unvaccinated, even in people over 80 and even after the first COVID-19 vaccination,"

An analogy might be the younger are getting a full tank of petrol and the elderly are getting only a half tank, more than enough for most journeys, and there will be petrol stations on the way(booster vaccines)

Apogee

Apogee wrote: »

Friday No: 19,070 administered (highest to date). Another ~10K to Cohort 3. Mon-Fri: 70,106. Passed the 500K mark - 513,322.

Sat No: 8,604 administered. Mostly Cohort 3 first doses. Mon-Sat: 79,328. 10% of vaccinatible population (3.7M) given first dose - 373,149.

stephenjmcd

Sky King wrote: »

I've heard a lot of people saying J & J vaccine will be 'doing the heavy lifting' but according to thejournal.ie this week - we'll only be getting 150,000 doses a month for April May and June.

I know it's a one-shot but it's less than 10% of our population over 3 key months. Hardly 'heavy lifting' is it?

Source:
https://www.thejournal.ie/explainer-johnson-and-johnson-vaccine-5369624-Mar2021/

That's not correct, not sure where they're getting the numbers from.

Expected supply is 602,082 through Q2 at 200,694 per month.

As per Oireachtas health committee this morning J&J is expected to be 15% of total doses in those 3 months so the numbers add up.

Cork2021

Cork2021 wrote: »

I do like being positive, but it does look like we’re being screwed by AstraZeneca, we face vaccine shortfalls UK gets increases

https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1369073411113299968?s=21

They've bought 10m doses produced in India.

is_that_so

Sky King wrote: »

I've heard a lot of people saying J & J vaccine will be 'doing the heavy lifting' but according to thejournal.ie this week - we'll only be getting 150,000 doses a month for April May and June.

I know it's a one-shot but it's less than 10% of our population over 3 key months. Hardly 'heavy lifting' is it?

Source:
https://www.thejournal.ie/explainer-johnson-and-johnson-vaccine-5369624-Mar2021/

The government have it down as 15% of our vaccine strategy and with AZ performing so well in deliveries it could well pass their contribution. 150K is still 300K AZ. Pfizer is the big lifter here at fairly close to 60%.

GeorgeBailey

SnuggyBear wrote: »

So your version of all in this together is to keep business closed and people out of work while other people can work away at home?

When 18-30 year olds who are last on the list see everyone else going about life as normal while they presumably continue to be demonised if they break social distancing rules when they're unvaccinated, how well do you think that will go?

And by the way my business is one of those that has continued to be closed for the last 12 months.

stephenjmcd

is_that_so wrote: »

The government have it down as 15% of our vaccine strategy and with AZ performing so well in deliveries it could well pass their contribution. 150K is still 300K AZ. Pfizer is the big lifter here at fairly close to 60%.

Absolutely, Pfizer is expected at just over 2 million doses for the 3 months out of the expected 3.8 million so it's doing an awful lot of the heavy lifting

SnuggyBear

GeorgeBailey wrote: »

When 18-30 year olds who are last on the list see everyone else going about life as normal while they presumably continue to be demonised if they break social distancing rules when they're unvaccinated, how well do you think that will go?

And by the way my business is one of those that has continued to be closed for the last 12 months.

18 to 30 year olds are going to do what they want regardless

Micky 32

lee_baby_simms wrote: »

Should this be a cause for concern? I hope not.

https://wkzo.com/2021/03/08/vaccine-response-may-be-weaker-in-elderly-merck-drug-shows-promise-in-reducing-virus-level/

The vaccines are all showing signs of protecting the ederly even in this country.

is_that_so

SnuggyBear wrote: »

18 to 30 year olds are going to do what they want regardless

They are the most socially active group and it's unreasonable to expect them to hang on while others are allowed to get out and have fun.

stefanovich

Cork2021 wrote: »

I do like being positive, but it does look like we’re being screwed by AstraZeneca, we face vaccine shortfalls UK gets increases

https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1369073411113299968?s=21

It's a private company with contracts with a number of countries. If there is blame to be levelled I'd be looking at the EC for not properly negotiating their contract.

On the one hand people are complaining about vaccine nationalism and the UK forcing AZ to do this or that (not true) but then supporting Italy when they block exports to Australia.

If there are issues with the vaccines here I'd say focus on Ireland and Europe.

ixoy

GeorgeBailey wrote: »

When 18-30 year olds who are last on the list

It's 18-54, not 18-30 who are in the final cohort, so it's not penalising "the young", although happy for someone in their 40s to be considered young
And there's a possibility that the 30-54 age group will actually come last, at least under the current guidelines.

VG31

GeorgeBailey wrote: »

When 18-30 year olds who are last on the list see everyone else going about life as normal while they presumably continue to be demonised if they break social distancing rules when they're unvaccinated, how well do you think that will go?

It's going to very hard to demonise them if it's only themselves at risk at that point.

is_that_so

stefanovich wrote: »

It's a private company with contracts with a number of countries. If there is blame to be levelled I'd be looking at the EC for not properly negotiating their contract.

On the one hand people are complaining about vaccine nationalism and the UK forcing AZ to do this or that (not true) but then supporting Italy when they block exports to Australia.

If there are issues with the vaccines here I'd say focus on Ireland and Europe.

Eventually you're going to have to come out from behind the contract in your very thinly disguised anti EU spiels. It may have been a point two months ago but waving it as an excuse for continued poor deliveries, now into Q2 as well, suggests you're not joining the dots very well.

Irish Stones

jackryan34 wrote: »

Why vaccination only?

They only have antibodies for the spike protein.Not the whole virus

People who got a natural infection recently are far less likely to transmit the virus and get infected again than the vaccinated.

Its why they dont have to self isolate after being in contact with a confirmed pcr covid case and vaccinated do

If youve got your full vaccine dosages and sit for a meal with a confirmed pcr covid case for a long time do you have to self isolate for 2 weeks?

Has this been confirmed?

stefanovich

is_that_so wrote: »

Eventually you're going to have to come out from behind the contract in your very thinly disguised anti EU spiels. It may have been a point two months ago but waving it as an excuse for continued poor deliveries, now into Q2 as well, suggests you're not joining the dots very well.

Facts are that the UK is not having the same supply issues. Why is that? I'd welcome alternate hypotheses.

is_that_so

stefanovich wrote: »

Facts are that the UK is not having the same supply issues. Why is that? I'd welcome alternate hypotheses.

Size is the big one. It's 1/8 of population of the EU. AZ are getting caught on these huge orders and can't deliver. Even that 10m from India to Britain would only give us 110K doses.

EDIT: This may have been posted before but it sums up the AZ missteps on supply chain.

https://www.politico.eu/article/after-failing-to-deliver-astrazeneca-rethinks-eu-coronavirus-vaccine-supply-chain/

GeorgeBailey

VG31 wrote: »

It's going to very hard to demonise them if it's only themselves at risk at that point.

"the young people are causing the variants Joe" Where there's a will there's a way.

Micky 32

Irish Stones wrote: »

Has this been confirmed?

The words ‘direction‘, ‘wind‘, ‘air’, ‘wet‘ all spring to mind.

SnuggyBear

Once the over 70s are vaccinated it's over in my mind. That's my finish line. Time to move on.

JDD

SnuggyBear wrote: »

Once the over 70s are vaccinated it's over in my mind. That's my finish line. Time to move on.

And the really vulnerable. I'm not really in favour of letting it rip through the community if I'm going to infect someone who's got cancer or who's on kidney dialysis. I mean, they deserve to have a bit of freedom too.

But yes, once over 70's and vulnerable are vaccinated, I'm having a party in my house, and I'm going on holidays. No ifs or buts.

brickster69

India looking at shortages of raw materials. This is where the main shortages could come from over the next few months. If one company cannot get one material it all stops

https://www.business-standard.com/article/pti-stories/serum-institute-seeks-govt-s-intervention-over-import-of-covid-vaccine-raw-material-from-us-121030801163_1.html?1615213536

ceegee

Apogee wrote: »

Sat No: 8,604 administered. Mostly Cohort 3 first doses. Mon-Sat: 79,328. 10% of vaccinatible population (3.7M) given first dose - 373,149.

Cohort 1 seems to have reduced. Presumably some were reclassified as 2 or 3.

stephenjmcd

Some of the key points so far from this mornings health committee with HSE

- Paul Reid - "Initially expecting 1.24m doses to arrive in Q1, now likely to be 1.1m (175,000 expected last day of March), original target of 1.24m doses expected to be fulfilled in the first week of April"

- Reid - "J&J projection still just over 600k doses in Q2, smaller numbers from mid April & then increasing throughout the quarter"

-Colm Henry - "About 160,000 in Cohort 4 - aiming is to get the substantive majority vaccinated in March"

- Reid "It has been a very frustrating quarter, I do think the next quarter will see some swings and roundabouts with suppliers" - but overall a boost.

Few digs at AZ also, for example,

"Once we get the supply, we administer it in a very efficient manner... if we don't get a supply (like 64,000 of AstraZeneca of Friday week last), it impacts us immediately (for the Saturday/Sunday)"

NeuralNetwork

is_that_so wrote: »

Size is the big one. It's 1/8 of population of the EU. AZ are getting caught on these huge orders and can't deliver. Even that 10m from India to Britain would only give us 110K doses.

EDIT: This may have been posted before but it sums up the AZ missteps on supply chain.

https://www.politico.eu/article/after-failing-to-deliver-astrazeneca-rethinks-eu-coronavirus-vaccine-supply-chain/

We’re roughly 1/13th of the U.K. pop.

Aprox. 769,000 doses here is equivalent to 10 million in the U.K.

EU-27 pop is roughly 7X the U.K.

is_that_so

NeuralNetwork wrote: »

We’re roughly 1/13th of the U.K. pop.

Aprox. 769,000 doses here is equivalent to 10 million in the U.K.

That's not what I was comparing. That 10m goes to the EU and we are at 110K of that.

NeuralNetwork

is_that_so wrote: »

That's not what I was comparing. That 10m goes to the EU and we are at 110K of that.

Less because the EU joint order includes several non EU states too and the EU production capacity seems to be supplying a lot of places, including Canada etc which they USA refused to supply.

There’s been a lot of hypocrisy directed at the EU about that Australian move from commentators in both the U.K. and USA neither of which are exporting vaccines.

stefanovich

is_that_so wrote: »

Size is the big one. It's 1/8 of population of the EU. AZ are getting caught on these huge orders and can't deliver. Even that 10m from India to Britain would only give us 110K doses.

EDIT: This may have been posted before but it sums up the AZ missteps on supply chain.

https://www.politico.eu/article/after-failing-to-deliver-astrazeneca-rethinks-eu-coronavirus-vaccine-supply-chain/

There is also a politico article I posted numerous times where they compare the contracts and conclude that the UK one was tougher. You'll have to admit that increased chance of successful litigation by the UK government helped at least.

NeuralNetwork

I think the issue with AstraZeneca is that it has little experience of anything like this. It’s not a major vaccine maker and it’s not even in the top 10 pharmaceutical companies in terms of size.

They’re relying on networks of subcontractors.

I think they bit off a lot more than they could chew on this.

Most of their capacity outside of Europe seems to be the Serum Institute in India, which is very capable.

It seems though like ambitious over promising and under delivering.