COVID-19: Vaccine and testing procedures Megathread Part 3 - Read OP

is_that_so

stefanovich wrote: »

There is also a politico article I posted numerous times where they compare the contracts and conclude that the UK one was tougher. You'll have to admit that increased chance of successful litigation by the UK government helped at least.

There may be an element of that but a "best effort" clause doesn't excuse how they've gone about it themselves. Not being a vaccine company and having both insights of such companies and the production ability to realise it may also be part of the overall issues.

IRISHSPORTSGUY

is_that_so wrote: »

Eventually you're going to have to come out from behind the contract in your very thinly disguised anti EU spiels. It may have been a point two months ago but waving it as an excuse for continued poor deliveries, now into Q2 as well, suggests you're not joining the dots very well.

UK's increased deliveries are because they are getting 10m doses from India. The EU have cottoned on to this idea quite late and are currently 'auditing' the plant which will probably take our bureaucratic overlords weeks/months, knowing them.

https://www.reuters.com/article/health-coronavirus-britain-india-idUSKCN2AV0A2
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-india-eu-exclusive-idUSKCN2AT1J0

timsey tiger

stefanovich wrote: »

There is also a politico article I posted numerous times where they compare the contracts and conclude that the UK one was tougher. You'll have to admit that increased chance of successful litigation by the UK government helped at least.

But irrelevant since they signed the EU contract first.

KrustyUCC

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Some of the key points so far from this mornings health committee with HSE

- Paul Reid - "Initially expecting 1.24m doses to arrive in Q1, now likely to be 1.1m (175,000 expected last day of March), original target of 1.24m doses expected to be fulfilled in the first week of April"

- Reid - "J&J projection still just over 600k doses in Q2, smaller numbers from mid April & then increasing throughout the quarter"

-Colm Henry - "About 160,000 in Cohort 4 - aiming is to get the substantive majority vaccinated in March"

- Reid "It has been a very frustrating quarter, I do think the next quarter will see some swings and roundabouts with suppliers" - but overall a boost.

Few digs at AZ also, for example,

"Once we get the supply, we administer it in a very efficient manner... if we don't get a supply (like 64,000 of AstraZeneca of Friday week last), it impacts us immediately (for the Saturday/Sunday)"

1.1million doses is 600,000 off the original target of 1.7m which is a very significant difference in Q1

Shows how volatile supply has been

Can see progress on vaccination progress being used by the government and NPHET to not ease restrictions in any meaningful way come Easter

stephenjmcd

KrustyUCC wrote: »

1.1million doses is 600,000 off the original target of 1.7m which is a very significant difference in Q1

Shows how volatile supply has been

Can see progress on vaccination progress being used by the government and NPHET to not ease restrictions in any meaningful way come Easter

That was addressed by Reid, 1.7m doses was based on advance purchase agreements with manufacturers as we know this changed very early in Q1 & was reflected in various target announcements etc, this was then adjusted to a target of 1.4m and then lowered again to 1.24m following issues with AZ.

To be frank there isn't much of an easing coming in April I wouldn't think anyway, 5k might go, click and collect in and construction, not expecting much else tbh, level 4 isn't too different from L5. Wouldn't expect anything too substantive after that until May.

IrishStuff09

10% of the adult population have now been vaccinated with at least one dose

stephenjmcd

IrishStuff09 wrote: »

10% of the adult population have now been vaccinated with at least one dose

Fair play on the site, it's an excellent resource pooling together information that otherwise would take a bit longer to find.

KrustyUCC

stephenjmcd wrote: »

That was addressed by Reid, 1.7m doses was based on advance purchase agreements with manufacturers as we know this changed very early in Q1, this was then adjusted to a target of 1.4m and then lowered again to 1.24m following issues with AZ.

To be frank there isn't much of an easing coming in April I wouldn't think anyway, 5k might go, click and collect in and construction, not expecting much else tbh

Yup a long way from the original target

That's four changes to expected targets in Q1 alone

Reid said plans have changed 15-17 times

TBF they can't do anything if vaccines don't arrive

Yup was always going to be a small easing of restrictions

I'd fear there will be less now that vaccination program is behind even if supplies are meant to be increased in Q2

Sweet.Science

KrustyUCC wrote: »

Yup a long way from the original target

That's four changes to expected targets in Q1 alone

Reid said plans have changed 15-17 times

TBF they can't do anything if vaccines don't arrive

Yup was always going to be a small easing of restrictions

I'd fear there will be less now that vaccination program is behind even if supplies are meant to be increased in Q2

That's why Q2 numbers need to be taken with a pinch of salt .

Gile_na_gile

Yes, our supply continues to be subpar for a developed bloc with mass production capability. It is pathetic, really, given we should be head-to-head with the US on supply. We need the vaccines to transition to loosening restrictions safely, and so we must wait and see for perhaps an extra month or two well into the second summer of this crisis. Every major decision has happened a month or two too late, including all the recent deals between pharma cos for production. Direction is right, pace is slow.

JacksonHeightsOwn

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Some of the key points so far from this mornings health committee with HSE

- Paul Reid - "Initially expecting 1.24m doses to arrive in Q1, now likely to be 1.1m (175,000 expected last day of March), original target of 1.24m doses expected to be fulfilled in the first week of April"

- Reid - "J&J projection still just over 600k doses in Q2, smaller numbers from mid April & then increasing throughout the quarter"

-Colm Henry - "About 160,000 in Cohort 4 - aiming is to get the substantive majority vaccinated in March"

- Reid "It has been a very frustrating quarter, I do think the next quarter will see some swings and roundabouts with suppliers" - but overall a boost.

Few digs at AZ also, for example,

"Once we get the supply, we administer it in a very efficient manner... if we don't get a supply (like 64,000 of AstraZeneca of Friday week last), it impacts us immediately (for the Saturday/Sunday)"

I know what this guy is saying is probably correct.

But it just seems like alot of book passing to.

Each month we appear to have the same lines thrown out," oh next month we'll really see a big ramp up in vaccinations", we'll, we're three months into process and it's still moving along relatively slowly.

There's going to come a point where they need to be called out on this. You can't keep rehashing the same old excuse and not expect to be questioned on it.

KrustyUCC

Will Covid-19 immunity last a lifetime or rapidly fade?

https://www.rte.ie/brainstorm/2021/0309/1202829-covid-19-immunity-vaccines-antibodies-flu-measles/

A good read from Luke O'Neill

stephenjmcd

chrisbonnie wrote: »

I know what this guy is saying is probably correct.

But it just seems like alot of book passing to.

Each month we appear to have the same lines thrown out," oh next month we'll really see a big ramp up in vaccinations", we'll, we're three months into process and it's still moving along relatively slowly.

There's going to come a point where they need to be called out on this. You can't keep rehashing the same old excuse and not expect to be questioned on it.

Tbh though they can only say what they're being told by manufacturers.

I get people are frustrated by the vast majority of all this is out of their hands but they take the flack, sometimes unfairly, sometimes rightly.

VonLuck

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Fair play on the site, it's an excellent resource pooling together information that otherwise would take a bit longer to find.

What site is that?

odyssey06

NeuralNetwork wrote: »

I think the issue with AstraZeneca is that it has little experience of anything like this. It’s not a major vaccine maker and it’s not even in the top 10 pharmaceutical companies in terms of size.
They’re relying on networks of subcontractors.
I think they bit off a lot more than they could chew on this.
Most of their capacity outside of Europe seems to be the Serum Institute in India, which is very capable.
It seems though like ambitious over promising and under delivering.

At least they have given us something to chew on, worth bearing in mind in criticism of them - unlike the top 3 vaccine manufacturers Sanofi, Merck and GSK whose candidates all failed.

stefanovich

timsey tiger wrote: »

But irrelevant since they signed the EU contract first.

Not irrelevant. EU contract was more wishy washy. Also, the UK approved it earlier which meant AZ could ramp up production with less risk for them.

stephenjmcd

VonLuck wrote: »

What site is that?

https://covid19.shanehastings.eu/

astrofool

stefanovich wrote: »

It's a private company with contracts with a number of countries. If there is blame to be levelled I'd be looking at the EC for not properly negotiating their contract.

On the one hand people are complaining about vaccine nationalism and the UK forcing AZ to do this or that (not true) but then supporting Italy when they block exports to Australia.

If there are issues with the vaccines here I'd say focus on Ireland and Europe.

I've asked you this before, and you run and hide, but should the UK start exporting vaccine that it is producing? Should the EU stop exporting Pfizer vaccine into the UK?

Contracts have all been the same, and the EU got theirs signed first, the difference is the UK is only caring about itself (getting 10m from India when it has it's own production running well), whereas the EU is making sure it's entire 27 country bloc is getting equal access to the vaccines as they get produced.

User142

GeorgeBailey wrote: »

When 18-30 year olds who are last on the list see everyone else going about life as normal while they presumably continue to be demonised if they break social distancing rules when they're unvaccinated, how well do you think that will go?

And by the way my business is one of those that has continued to be closed for the last 12 months.

18-30 year olds arent the last on the list. 35-54 year olds are last unless some new evidence shows the vaccines aren't preventing transmission.

dublin_paul

User142 wrote: »

18-30 year olds arent the last on the list. 35-54 year olds are last unless some new evidence shows the vaccines aren't preventing transmission.

Children, adolescents up to 18 years and pregnant women (to be refined) are last on the list, the 2nd last group are 18-54

User142

dublin_paul wrote: »

Children, adolescents up to 18 years and pregnant women (to be refined) are last on the list, the 2nd last group are 18-54

And the 18-54 group is subdivided with the younger cohort prioritised based on their increased sociability

eoinbn

chrisbonnie wrote: »

I know what this guy is saying is probably correct.

But it just seems like alot of book passing to.

Each month we appear to have the same lines thrown out," oh next month we'll really see a big ramp up in vaccinations", we'll, we're three months into process and it's still moving along relatively slowly.

There's going to come a point where they need to be called out on this. You can't keep rehashing the same old excuse and not expect to be questioned on it.

To be fair to the government that ramp up was based on the numbers that AZ were telling them.
However the government are going to be crucified, and rightly so, in April once people realize that the April numbers aren't going to be much higher than the March numbers.

KrustyUCC

eoinbn wrote: »

However the government are going to be crucified, and rightly so, in April once people realize that the April numbers aren't going to be much higher than the March numbers.

That's a depressing thought

We really need to start seeing a lamp up in vaccinations

JDD

User142 wrote: »

And the 18-54 group is subdivided with the younger cohort prioritised based on their increased sociability

Has that been confirmed?

To be fair to the government that ramp up was based on the numbers that AZ were telling them.
However the government are going to be crucified, and rightly so, in April once people realize that the April numbers aren't going to be much higher than the March numbers.

This is what I worry about. AZ have proven to be completely unreliable so far. Any future projections should take them out of the equation entirely. If get vaccines from them, it should be considered a bonus.

Then with the net numbers after AZ have been taken out, we should see whether we can reasonably hit the promise that 80% of adults will get their first jab by end-June. If we can't, then we should start looking to approve JandJ or Novartis on an emergency basis, outside of the EU process, and see what additional vaccines we can secure.

astrofool

JDD wrote: »

Has that been confirmed?




This is what I worry about. AZ have proven to be completely unreliable so far. Any future projections should take them out of the equation entirely. If get vaccines from them, it should be considered a bonus.

Then with the net numbers after AZ have been taken out, we should see whether we can reasonably hit the promise that 80% of adults will get their first jab by end-June. If we can't, then we should start looking to approve JandJ or Novartis on an emergency basis, outside of the EU process, and see what additional vaccines we can secure.

J&J is 2 days from EMA approval, EU will also be taking all of the supply that's being produced.

Novartis is producing a few different vaccine, but all orders are in already, anything we get from there would be after the EU allocation has been made.

RavenBea17b

odyssey06 wrote: »

At least they have given us something to chew on, worth bearing in mind in criticism of them - unlike the top 3 vaccine manufacturers Sanofi, Merck and GSK whose candidates all failed.

I alluded to this issue in an earlier post. With the failure of Sanofi/GSK of which the EU had a significant pre-order of doses 300M (the same figure if I recall as AZ) it compounded the issue of available vaccines. The then announcement of delays for delivery in Pfizer schedule in Q1, (ongoing) after EMA approval and EU vaccine program had started. this then made AZ extremely important, considering trial timelines.
The AZ issues of delivery further complicated the importance then, of getting vaccines and schedule. What I do notice is, that EVEN if AZ had been able to produce and deliver at or as near planned/agreed rate, the mechanism/process to get jabs into people in some EU states has been poor at best - this I add includes Pfizer and now Moderna (IMHO).- even taking into account known vaccine wary populations of some countries. Thankfully things are improving.
The lack of data for 65+ rules for a number of EU states meant that delivery of Pfizer became even more critical during Q1. I am not sure if Pfizer has caught up totally with its Q1 delivery plan yet - I last read something about c10m doses to be off plan, but that was a couple of weeks ago now. AZ was to be used on caregivers and medics etc. The amount used in some EU states - even holding onto double doses still does not make sense for SOME.
Ireland has been better at utilising the supplies it receives - but again the processes and mechanism by the HSE should have been put in place faster, based on a sensible business continuity plan. Akin to reduced schedule x, then do y % of doses, with scenarios a, b, c etc.
Thing are improving, but planning to administer has been poor - based upon my own interaction with my Irish family and friends.

As to the contract signed with AZ and UK/EU. I had read somewhere that it was a day between the EU and UK with AZ. What I did see and read (if I can find it )is that the final contract with UK was linked to an already agreed contract - but with AZ UK. I may be in wrong on this, as it was quite a while ago and I may well have misunderstood it (contract lawyer I am not). The contract thing is being thrown about is to me partly a red herring to throw off a deeper analysis and a cool/calm analysis at that. The UK contract differs to the EU one - doesn't make it feel fair to anyone though in info from of AZ in timely fashion. These are just my thoughts and opinions.

trellheim

ah ffs

Health Service Executive CEO Paul Reid has said that only 1.1 million vaccine doses are likely to arrive in Ireland in the first three months of this year, against an expectation of 1.24m.

He told an Oireachtas Committee on Health that there was a large number of vaccines, around 175,000, expected on the last day of March and delays meant the 1.2m target would not be reached until the first week of April.

Mr Reid said that an original figure of 1.7m doses was based on advance purchase agreements with manufacturers.

This was then adjusted to a target of 1.4m and then lowered again to 1.24m

down another 124,000 fk sake manufacturers fking us around again ( and thats only in the last couple of days, expect this messing to keep going and the number to keep coming down )

https://www.rte.ie/news/2021/0308/1202788-coronavirus-ireland/

stephenjmcd

trellheim wrote: »

ah ffs



down another 124,000 fk sake manufacturers fking us around again ( and thats only in the last couple of days, expect this messing to keep going and the number to keep coming down )

https://www.rte.ie/news/2021/0308/1202788-coronavirus-ireland/

It literally says it in the article that the balance is expected first week of April, 1 week later than planned. 1.1 Million expected by end of March, 1.2 million first week of April, which is a week late

Reid told the committee the current schedule is 1.2 million to the first week of April

Scuid Mhór

eoinbn wrote: »

To be fair to the government that ramp up was based on the numbers that AZ were telling them.
However the government are going to be crucified, and rightly so, in April once people realize that the April numbers aren't going to be much higher than the March numbers.

If it comes to that, people will start to flaunt the restrictions. Could be a grim second quarter ahead for us.

RavenBea17b

odyssey06 wrote: »

At least they have given us something to chew on, worth bearing in mind in criticism of them - unlike the top 3 vaccine manufacturers Sanofi, Merck and GSK whose candidates all failed.

trellheim wrote: »

ah ffs



down another 124,000 fk sake manufacturers fking us around again ( and thats only in the last couple of days, expect this messing to keep going and the number to keep coming down )

this kind of reaffirms my last post. I would expect that AZ are the l% greater number to be off schedule, - BUT they are ALL off plan.
Capacity vs demand is always going to be an issue.
Does anyone know if Pfizer have got the other plants within the EU up and running at full or as near capacity yet?
Moderna have been hesitant and used terms that alluded to slow ramp up. J & J are already slipping in timelines if I interpret that article correctly.