Winter 20/21 - General Discussion

Donegal Storm · 05-02-2021 11:38am

This has to be one of the longest spells of slate grey skies I can remember in recent times, honestly can't recall seeing the sun even once since two weekends ago. Another dank drizzly day today

appledrop · 05-02-2021 2:10pm

Donegal Storm wrote: »

This has to be one of the longest spells of slate grey skies I can remember in recent times, honestly can't recall seeing the sun even once since two weekends ago. Another dank drizzly day today

We have been exact same here on NCD.

However about 10 minutes again sun started peaking out of clouds. We actually didn't know why room was getting bright because it has been so dull.

I'm sure it will disappear again in 5 minutes but lovely to look at out the window!

Edited: Yep it only lasted 5 mins, ah well bring on snow + hopefully some sunshine.

Dazler97 · 05-02-2021 4:20pm

Weather advisory for Eastern counties from Sunday till Wednesday

Oneiric 3 · 05-02-2021 4:23pm

From reading this forum for the last 10/12 odd years or so, it has become clear that easterlies, while they tend to bring more snow to the more highly populated areas of the country than northerlies would, is also snow that tends to be very localised. (a dusting in Bray; 2 foot a couple of miles away). Northerlies and all their varying components bring heavier snows that cover a lot more of the country. We get snow from the east here occasionally here in Galway, but in terms of quality and intensity, it isn't a patch on snow from the north. However, after saying all of that, snow from the north has pretty much become a thing of the past.

Nqp15hhu · 05-02-2021 5:33pm

There is unbelievably STILL multiple patches of snow lying about above 200 metres! Unbelievable given the constant rain we have had.

Tyrone212 · 05-02-2021 6:37pm

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

No.. winds move from west to east.

What do you mean no. Its a cold water current which runs down the Canadian east coast and has a moderating effect on the climate of the coastal lands in its path, making the summers there cooler, and winters more severely cold. Just like gulf streams keeps us mild. Anyway I'll say no more about it.

Nqp15hhu · 05-02-2021 7:02pm

Arduach wrote: »

These are ocean currents

Cold air is moved by advection (winds), not the ocean. Our air is primarily mild because the winds blow from the ocean.

Nqp15hhu · 05-02-2021 7:03pm

Tyrone212 wrote: »

What do you mean no. Its a cold water current which runs down the Canadian east coast and has a moderating effect on the climate of the coastal lands in its path, making the summers there cooler, and winters more severely cold. Just like gulf streams keeps us mild. Anyway I'll say no more about it.

The Gulf Stream isn’t directly responsible for our mild weather. It’s the winds.

Arduach · 05-02-2021 7:16pm

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

Cold air is moved by advection (winds), not the ocean. Our air is primarily mild because the winds blow from the ocean.

The ocean currents effect the temperature of the air where they pass.

If the gulf stream was pushed south and we had westerly winds our air temps would be a lot colder than at present with westerlies.

Nqp15hhu · 05-02-2021 7:25pm

Arduach wrote: »

The ocean currents effect the temperature of the air where they pass.

If the gulf stream was pushed south and we had westerly winds our air temps would be a lot colder than at present with westerlies.

The Gulf Stream has a small affect on our ocean temperatures. The ocean still reaches 8-9c just off the coast of this island in winter months.

https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/contour/global.fc.gif

If you look at charts of water to the west of the North Atlantic Current and to the east of the Labrador current, the water temperature is around 5c. So it wouldn’t be that much colder.

As stated earlier the mild weather is caused by a westerly wind blowing off the ocean. If it was caused by the Gulf Stream, next weeks easterly wouldn’t be possible.

Arduach · 05-02-2021 7:32pm

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

The Gulf Stream has a small affect on our ocean temperatures. The ocean still reaches 8-9c just off the coast of this island in winter months.

https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/contour/global.fc.gif

If you look at charts of water to the west of the North Atlantic Current and to the east of the Labrador current, the water temperature is around 5c. So it wouldn’t be that much colder.

As stated earlier the mild weather is caused by a westerly wind blowing off the ocean. If it was caused by the Gulf Stream, next weeks easterly wouldn’t be possible.

4C is a big difference Nqp when it comes to moderating air flows. Of course next week's airflow has far less ocean to travel over. But in general most weather coming from the other directions are being moderated by gulf stream ocean. Hence the difference between Labrador and Ireland being at the same latitude but their climate being much colder.

Arduach · 05-02-2021 7:35pm

Going very off topic but I know people from south and west Kerry who never saw lying snow until they came to the midlands. That's the gulf stream influence.

Nqp15hhu · 05-02-2021 7:35pm

The Gulf Stream is not the direct cause of mild weather. It is the source of the air mass and the direction of the wind.

Arduach · 05-02-2021 7:38pm

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

The Gulf Stream is not the direct cause of mild weather. It is the source of the air mass and the direction of the wind.

Ok if we didn't have the gulf stream what would our climate be like?

It doesn't influence 'weather' coming from the east, which is very occasional, but it effects our climate, big time.

Without it would we have more snowfall and cold, absolutely.

Bogwoppit · 05-02-2021 7:38pm

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

The Gulf Stream has a small affect on our ocean temperatures. The ocean still reaches 8-9c just off the coast of this island in winter months.

https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/contour/global.fc.gif

If you look at charts of water to the west of the North Atlantic Current and to the east of the Labrador current, the water temperature is around 5c. So it wouldn’t be that much colder.

As stated earlier the mild weather is caused by a westerly wind blowing off the ocean. If it was caused by the Gulf Stream, next weeks easterly wouldn’t be possible.

I’ve spent a bit of time working in the waters around Newfoundland, the temps there are 5-10 degrees below ours. That’s the difference between rare enough snow events here and sea ice and snow on the ground for 4 months in Newfoundland.

Nqp15hhu · 05-02-2021 7:49pm

Arduach wrote: »

Ok if we didn't have the gulf stream what would our climate be like?

It doesn't influence 'weather' coming from the east, which is very occasional, but it effects our climate, big time.

Without it would we have more snowfall and cold, absolutely.

It would be marginally cooler. But still mild because the wind is coming off the ocean.

Nqp15hhu · 05-02-2021 7:51pm

Bogwoppit wrote: »

I’ve spent a bit of time working in the waters around Newfoundland, the temps there are 5-10 degrees below ours. That’s the difference between rare enough snow events here and sea ice and snow on the ground for 4 months in Newfoundland.

It’s not. The prevailing wind direction in Newfoundland is off the North American continent.

https://www.meteoblue.com/en/weather/historyclimate/climatemodelled/gander_canada_5959335

Oneiric 3 · 05-02-2021 7:54pm

NFL lies just off the NE edge of one of the biggest land masses on the planet. A common westerly to them is similar to a rare easterly for us. If NFL was located off the west coast of Canada but on the same latitude as it currently is, its climate would be almost as bleak as ours.

Seymour20 · 05-02-2021 8:01pm

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

NFL lies just off the NE edge of one of the biggest land masses on the planet. A common westerly to them is similar to a rare easterly for us. If NFL was located off the west coast of Canada but on the same latitude as it currently is, its climate would be almost as bleak as ours.

A bleak climate similar to ours on the west coast of Canada would be Haida Gwaii. Believe it’s pretty bleak climate wise.

Oneiric 3 · 05-02-2021 8:05pm

Seymour20 wrote: »

A bleak climate similar to ours on the west coast of Canada would be Haida Gwaii. Believe it’s pretty bleak climate wise.

From that article:
"Precipitation is typically extremely frequent (especially from autumn to mid-winter), occurring on around two-thirds of all days even in relatively shielded areas, and direct sunlight is scarce, averaging around 3 to 4 hours per day."

Sounds like home from home.

Arduach · 05-02-2021 8:14pm

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

It’s not. The prevailing wind direction in Newfoundland is off the North American continent.

https://www.meteoblue.com/en/weather/historyclimate/climatemodelled/gander_canada_5959335

By that logic you would expect Labrador and Newfoundland to have warmer summers than us with wind blowing off a very warm continent.

However the island of Newfoundland has an average summer temperature of 16°C (61°F), much the same as the southern half of ireland?

Arduach · 05-02-2021 8:22pm

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

There is unbelievably STILL multiple patches of snow lying about above 200 metres! Unbelievable given the constant rain we have had.

Could depend on what way the ditches are facing. I see it at home often enough, compacted snow with a high ditch sheltering the snow from rain. In February 1996 we had snow lying until the end of February that fell on the 30th January. Same with snow that fell around the 2nd Feb 2009, it was there until the end of the month in favoured spots. We're 336m asl.

Tyrone212 · 05-02-2021 8:27pm

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

The Gulf Stream isn’t directly responsible for our mild weather. It’s the winds.

Well without the gulf stream winters in this part of the world are estimated to be 5c or more cooler.

Tyrone212 · 05-02-2021 8:32pm

Arduach wrote: »

4C is a big difference Nqp when it comes to moderating air flows. Of course next week's airflow has far less ocean to travel over. But in general most weather coming from the other directions are being moderated by gulf stream ocean. Hence the difference between Labrador and Ireland being at the same latitude but their climate being much colder.

I completely agree.

St. John's newfoundland

The average water temperature in St. John's in winter reaches 1°C/33.8°F, in spring 1°C/33.8°F, in summer the average temperature rises to 11°C/51.8°F, and in autumn it is 9°C/48.2°F.

Average sea temperature in galway in winter is 8c. 10c in spring. 15c in summer.

So a 7c difference in winter. Which has massive impacts. How often does cold air get modified travelling over the relatively mild ocean and we end with cold rain or sleet. 7c cooler you wouldn't have to worry about that. So the ocean currents make a massive difference.

circadian · 05-02-2021 8:42pm

Seymour20 wrote: »

A bleak climate similar to ours on the west coast of Canada would be Haida Gwaii. Believe it’s pretty bleak climate wise.

Pacific BC is both spectaculary wet and spectaculary beautiful.

Nqp15hhu · 05-02-2021 9:00pm

Arduach wrote: »

By that logic you would expect Labrador and Newfoundland to have warmer summers than us with wind blowing off a very warm continent.

However the island of Newfoundland has an average summer temperature of 16°C (61°F), much the same as the southern half of ireland?

No. The average summer highs is around 22-23c which is similar to southern England.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_Falls-Windsor

Nqp15hhu · 05-02-2021 9:02pm

Tyrone212 wrote: »

Well without the gulf stream winters in this part of the world are estimated to be 5c or more cooler.

I seriously doubt it. We would possibly be in between Reykjavik and Torshavn. Cold spells wouldn’t be moderated as much.

But the ocean would still be relatively mild at 5c.

Nqp15hhu · 05-02-2021 9:04pm

Tyrone212 wrote: »

I completely agree.

St. John's newfoundland

The average water temperature in St. John's in winter reaches 1°C/33.8°F, in spring 1°C/33.8°F, in summer the average temperature rises to 11°C/51.8°F, and in autumn it is 9°C/48.2°F.

Average sea temperature in galway in winter is 8c. 10c in spring. 15c in summer.

So a 7c difference in winter. Which has massive impacts. How often does cold air get modified travelling over the relatively mild ocean and we end with cold rain or sleet. 7c cooler you wouldn't have to worry about that. So the ocean currents make a massive difference.

The air in Newfoundland doesn’t travel over ocean. It moves east from the Plains or SE from Baffin Island.

Tyrone212 · 05-02-2021 9:16pm

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

I seriously doubt it. We would possibly be in between Reykjavik and Torshavn. Cold spells wouldn’t be moderated as much.

But the ocean would still be relatively mild at 5c.

Where are you getting your figure the ocean temperature would be 5c. Just a guess?

BBC climate
"The Gulf Stream brings warmth to the UK and north-west Europe and is the reason we have mild winters. Without this steady stream of warmth the British Isles winters are estimated to be more than 5C cooler, bringing the average December temperature in London to about 2C."

Tyrone212 · 05-02-2021 9:22pm

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

The air in Newfoundland doesn’t travel over ocean. It moves east from the Plains or SE from Baffin Island.

You completed ignored what was said.

The sea temperature is 1c at St johns New foundland in winter due to the cold labrador current. Its 8c in Galway due to the gulf stream.

If we didn't have the gulf stream and a cold current instead like newfoundland our climate would be a lot colder due to much less modification of air masses.

Nqp15hhu · 05-02-2021 9:26pm

Tyrone212 wrote: »

You completed ignored what was said.

The sea temperature is 1c at St johns New foundland in winter due to the cold labrador current. Its 8c in Galway due to the gulf stream.

If we didn't have the gulf stream and a cold current instead like newfoundland our climate would be a lot colder due to much less modification of air masses.

It wouldn’t be a lot colder, it would be marginally colder as the ocean surface temperatures would still be in the “cool” category.

Nqp15hhu · 05-02-2021 9:27pm

Tyrone212 wrote: »

You completed ignored what was said.

The sea temperature is 1c at St johns New foundland in winter due to the cold labrador current. Its 8c in Galway due to the gulf stream.

If we didn't have the gulf stream and a cold current instead like newfoundland our climate would be a lot colder due to much less modification of air masses.

The mid Atlantic Ocean is not affected by an extensive ocean currents. The average sea temperature there is 4-5c.

Danno · 05-02-2021 9:29pm

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

It wouldn’t be a lot colder, it would be marginally colder as the ocean surface temperatures would still be in the “cool” category.

If the sea temperatures were 1c in Galway bay and all the way west across the Atlantic at Galway's latitude then any system coming over from Canada would make it here as wet snow right onto the coast too.

Tyrone212 · 05-02-2021 9:31pm

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

It wouldn’t be a lot colder, it would be marginally colder as the ocean surface temperatures would still be in the “cool” category.

So by your own made up figure, a 3 to 4c reduction in sea temperatures around Ireland would only have a marginal impact on the climate. That's ridiculous. Anyway there's no hope or point.

Nqp15hhu · 05-02-2021 9:37pm

I just said that the mid Atlantic averages 4-5c

Arduach · 05-02-2021 9:42pm

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

No. The average summer highs is around 22-23c which is similar to southern England.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_Falls-Windsor

An average night and day temperature of 16c in summer, same as Ireland. With air off the American continent it should be higher. Not because of the labrador current.

https://www.newfoundlandlabrador.com/about-this-place/climate-and-weather

Nqp15hhu · 05-02-2021 9:59pm

Continental Climates have a greater diurnal range.

eskimocat · 05-02-2021 10:26pm

"Evening all!".... wanders in, looks about, yup..."Long time no see!"....well things seem to be the same old, same old,...the charts just don't seem to oconfidently bring the promise of a nationwide blanket of snow, and thus leaves us all with the 'who is gonna get what, when ?' ..... It feels like an old classic of a song that comes on the radio and before you know it you are humming along.... Beast from the East, When the North Wind doth blow, then we shall have snow...and fond memories of previous forecasts and events tumble around your head. Then you show up in the Weather forum of boards.ie

Hope all the gang that I recognise on here are doing well, thanks for continuing to bring the interesting discussions and forecasting experience. To the newier crew, looking forward to seeing your insights and predictions. As for me, I'm just here for the F1 views, so i'll go back to lurking now.

noobsnow95 · 05-02-2021 11:00pm

Would anyone be able to tell me what sort of scenario is best for Limerick in terms of snow? We never seem to benefit greatly from either easterlies or northerly fronts apart from a few flurries. Is a battleground scenario the most favourable?

Danno · 05-02-2021 11:01pm

eskimocat wrote: »

"Evening all!".... wanders in, looks about, yup..."Long time no see!"...

Lockdown cans bring out the bravery in all of us!

:pac:

Welcome back, nice time for an "Eskimo" to turn up, hopefully you'll feel well at home this coming week!

Danno · 05-02-2021 11:04pm

noobsnow95 wrote: »

Would anyone be able to tell me what sort of scenario is best for Limerick in terms of snow? We never seem to benefit greatly from either easterlies or northerly fronts apart from a few flurries. Is a battleground scenario the most favourable?

For Limerick, the city I presume - you'd need a stalling Atlantic occluded front over Ireland positioned west of the Shannon.

Limerick City, along with west coastal Waterford and East coastal Cork is one of the geographically unlucky areas for snow on this fair isle.

Clonmel1000 · 05-02-2021 11:11pm

Had what I think was about 10 mins sun today. God it was lovely and you could feel the rays. Some talk of icy cold weather again next week however unfortunately for those of us who don’t like cold rain and icy roads. February is still very much a winter month in fairness. For me Patrick’s Day is spring although how many parades have you been at where it’s been cold and wet! Syrah might have a rundown on Paddy’s Day for us closer to the time.

noobsnow95 · 05-02-2021 11:13pm

Danno wrote: »

For Limerick, the city I presume - you'd need a stalling Atlantic occluded front over Ireland positioned west of the Shannon.

Limerick City, along with west coastal Waterford and East coastal Cork is one of the geographically unlucky areas for snow on this fair isle.

Cheers Danno! Here's hoping for something around these parts during the cold snap.

Dickie10 · 05-02-2021 11:16pm

I am teaching climate to my second years at the minute. i love the topic but i think some are getting lost , theres simply so much science involved hard for some 14 year old to take in dosent help if they have neighbours or snapchat banging away in background i guess.

But i noticed sea currents seem to have a huge amount to do with climate. Only this week while researching the class i noticed that a lot of cold water curents that flow past continents inmid latitudes result in desert/dry climate. every day a school day !

Have a few other locations i would love to find out more on thier climate, one such is Kamatchka Russia

Arduach · 05-02-2021 11:47pm

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

Continental Climates have a greater diurnal range.

You said daily max average was around 22C. Again only a degree or so higher than us. Note my article about a short summer, 16c daily average. Despite wind from the very warm continent. It's obvious the labrador current cools down summers aswell as winters.

Nqp15hhu · 06-02-2021 12:20am

Is it just my area? I can hear transatlantic flights at 30,000 feet + very clearly. Almost as if they are 5,000 feet above. Very odd.

Danno · 06-02-2021 12:20am

Dickie10 wrote: »

I am teaching climate to my second years at the minute. i love the topic but i think some are getting lost , theres simply so much science involved hard for some 14 year old to take in dosent help if they have neighbours or snapchat banging away in background i guess.

But i noticed sea currents seem to have a huge amount to do with climate. Only this week while researching the class i noticed that a lot of cold water curents that flow past continents inmid latitudes result in desert/dry climate. every day a school day !

Have a few other locations i would love to find out more on thier climate, one such is Kamatchka Russia

Fantastic to read this - keep up the good work.

Nothing beats a teacher who will inquisitively seek out a broader picture of what is a complex science and relay this to their students.

Your students are lucky to have you.

Danno · 06-02-2021 12:26am

Clonmel1000 wrote: »

Had what I think was about 10 mins sun today. God it was lovely and you could feel the rays. Some talk of icy cold weather again next week however unfortunately for those of us who don’t like cold rain and icy roads. February is still very much a winter month in fairness. For me Patrick’s Day is spring although how many parades have you been at where it’s been cold and wet! Syrah might have a rundown on Paddy’s Day for us closer to the time.

Interesting you point this out, one of two take away points of the Feb 2018 event for me was spending two hours out in the garden during a break between the streamers. Was with the kiddies building a snowman. I got sunburnt. That and the drifts from the big finale were the two memories.

Getting sunburnt on Feb 27th/28th (can't remember which afternoon) is certainly a novelty!

St. Patrick's day is probably a marker to the end of winter through a pagan calendar somewhere, but I'd never turn my back on snow till March is out.

Clonmel1000 · 06-02-2021 8:40am

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

Is it just my area? I can hear transatlantic flights at 30,000 feet + very clearly. Almost as if they are 5,000 feet above. Very odd.

Same here I’ve been scrambling to flight radar a lot the last few days staring longingly at the screen wishing it was me up there.

appledrop · 06-02-2021 10:39am

Clonmel St. Patricks Day is always a strange one.

We always went to parade in City Centre as a child + yes I can remember freezing cold ones but also remember plenty when you would be lovely and warm in sunshine.

However I can 100% confirm that last few years have definitely been freezing cold/wet as I continue the tradition with my own child, apart from last year.

Winter 20/21 - General Discussion

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