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FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2020 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST

Gonzo · 2020-12-01 20:33:36

Mod Note This thread is for posting/discussing/analyzing FI CHARTS ONLY i.e. Charts in the unreliable time frame, generally +T120 onward. If your post does not specifically relate to an FI chart then it doesn't belong here - Off topic posts will be moved Thanks The golden gates of winter have finally swung open with hopes…

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#2102 01-02-2021 3:10pm
Gonzo

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Mod Note: Far too much general discussion going on in here. Any post that isn't commenting directly about the models get deleted here as they are not on topic. Nobody wants to wade through pages of general comments to get to the details they are looking for. This thread is purely for discussing the current model output.

General chat about all winter related topics are more than welcome on the winter thread. https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2058101347&page=206

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#2103 01-02-2021 3:11pm
almostthere12

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Cheers lads, very interesting thread but it's an emotional rollercoaster!! :-)

Unfortunately no charts seem to be showing a prolonged cold at this stage but looking more consistent for the weekend and on to around Wednesday next week.

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#2104 01-02-2021 3:27pm
Neddyusa

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Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

This is the best way of seeing the overall picture, in 3D. Chose Temp 2m/Vent and Temp 850 hPa and zoom in and out, move to more of a polar view and click animate to see what's likely to happen.

We're really only on the outer fringes of any cold outbreak, like waves lapping a shore.

http://www.meteociel.com/modeles/gfse_3d.php?lat=62.83&lon=-0.69&ech=25.28&zoom=4.77

Yes and this is due to the ever present Azores High on the charts quoted here.
I'm not passing any remarks on "snowy" forecasts while that is hanging around like a red sore thumb.

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#2105 01-02-2021 3:38pm
nacho libre

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Neddyusa wrote: »

Yes and this is due to the ever present Azores High on the charts quoted here.
I'm not passing any remarks on "snowy" forecasts while that is hanging around like a red sore thumb.

It looks good in the short term, the ECM verifying could mean more area seeing snow than just the usual places. Long term does not look great going by the Strat forecast. If the EC46 reflects it, we may see the Met Eireann monthly referring to a more westerly influence later in the month

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#2106 01-02-2021 3:40pm
Gonzo

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having looked at the latest model output i'm neither excited or annoyed. Still too much uncertainty. I think we will get a few fairly cold days from Saturday to perhaps Tuesday but nothing on the level of a beast and many areas could escape fairly dry. I was really hoping we would be locked in by this stage but we are nowhere near that. Let's see how the rest of today's output goes but for me this is very much on a knife edge and that includes the UK as well.

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#2107 01-02-2021 3:57pm
Slashermcguirk

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I think it would be near impossible to be locked in a week out regardless of the weather event. Was BFTE even certain a week out? Here is hoping anyway that this materialises, would be happy enough with a few days of great snow and then for a lovely spring. As for the UK I couldn’t give a flute what weather they get

Gonzo wrote: »

having looked at the latest model output i'm neither excited or annoyed. Still too much uncertainty. I think we will get a few fairly cold days from Saturday to perhaps Tuesday but nothing on the level of a beast and many areas could escape fairly dry. I was really hoping we would be locked in by this stage but we are nowhere near that. Let's see how the rest of today's output goes but for me this is very much on a knife edge and that includes the UK as well.

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#2108 01-02-2021 4:10pm
nacho libre

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Slashermcguirk wrote: »

I think it would be near impossible to be locked in a week out regardless of the weather event. Was BFTE even certain a week out?

The models firmed up on that well in advance with no real wavering in the countdown, so naturally there was far more confidence about what was depicted would happen.

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#2109 01-02-2021 4:28pm
TheMilkyPirate

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ICON slow to get the cold in but it does come eventually early Monday. It's delayed but better than its 6z to me

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#2110 01-02-2021 4:31pm
PukkaStukka

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From Netweather, highlighting"model chaos agreeing on it"

https://www.netweather.tv/weather-forecasts/news/10693-potential-for-a-cold-easterly-to-develop-this-weekend-but-model-chaos-agreeing-on-it

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#2111 01-02-2021 4:34pm
Oneiric 3

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nacho libre wrote: »

The models firmed up on that well in advance with no real wavering in the countdown, so naturally there was far more confidence about what was depicted would happen.

Yes, I do remember that the 2018 event was more or less 'nailed on' many days in advance. It has been a funny set up this year. A big cold pool stuck to our NE for weeks, yet it can't seem to go anywhere.

New Moon

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#2112 01-02-2021 4:34pm
munsterlegend

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The U.K. Met office thinking which see cold conditions prevailing from the weekend on.

https://youtu.be/56IWx1I4odg

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#2113 01-02-2021 4:35pm
sicknotexi

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Back on the rollercoaster. Can we see a better 12z than 06z?

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#2114 01-02-2021 4:40pm
pad199207

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munsterlegend wrote: »

The U.K. Met office thinking which see cold conditions prevailing from the weekend on.

https://youtu.be/56IWx1I4odg

Looks at the Met Office Video...

Reality :rolleyes:

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#2115 01-02-2021 4:44pm
lucernarian

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sicknotexi wrote: »

Back on the rollercoaster. Can we see a better 12z than 06z?

At t+36, all I'm seeing is that the complex low system west of Ireland, is slightly weaker than in 06z.

Edit: at t+72 the low pressure around Ireland seems to be tapping into cold air a little bit better than in the 06z run. Time for popcorn as we head towards FI

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#2116 01-02-2021 4:58pm
TheMilkyPirate

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12z is a much cleaner evolution and a vast improvement on the 6z so far anyway

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#2117 01-02-2021 5:03pm
ninebeanrows

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This looks delightful!

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#2118 01-02-2021 5:05pm
Reckless Abandonment

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Nice to see these charts at the 120 range . Gfs 12zlooks a big improvement from the 6z

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#2119 01-02-2021 5:05pm
Gonzo

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Slashermcguirk wrote: »

I think it would be near impossible to be locked in a week out regardless of the weather event. Was BFTE even certain a week out? Here is hoping anyway that this materialises, would be happy enough with a few days of great snow and then for a lovely spring. As for the UK I couldn’t give a flute what weather they get

What weather the UK gets is important for us for potential cold spells. If they don't get decent cold in then we don't have a chance either. When it comes to easterlies/north-easterlies what happens there is fairly important to us.

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#2120 01-02-2021 5:05pm
Artane2002

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the GFS 12z looks a lot better than the 6z, it just proves that there is zero point in getting hung up on one operational run. with that being said, we could easily see the 18z revert back to something less favourable but fingers crossed.

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#2121 01-02-2021 5:06pm
Rebelbrowser

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I wouldn't mind spending my locked down Saturday night with drink in hand, in front of the fire, staring out the streamers that would set off....

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#2122 01-02-2021 5:06pm
pad199207

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The madness continues with this GFS run. Looks a belter compared to this morning.

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#2123 01-02-2021 5:07pm
Villain

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Did I hear a boom?

Better than 6z for sure but it is only one run, if ECMWF can move that way we'll be getting some extra firewood in

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#2124 01-02-2021 5:09pm
ninebeanrows

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The beauty is how close it is

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#2125 01-02-2021 5:10pm
ninebeanrows

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The beauty is how close it is

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#2126 01-02-2021 5:10pm
Captain Snow

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Rebelbrowser wrote: »

I wouldn't mind spending my locked down Saturday night with drink in hand, in front of the fire, staring out the streamers that would set off....

BOOM

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#2127 01-02-2021 5:10pm
lucernarian

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Smallish changes looking at isobars alone, but this 12z run drags in much colder air than what was seen on the main 6z run. Very snowy chart for e.g. Saturday night.

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#2128 01-02-2021 5:11pm
TheMilkyPirate

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Yes we will take that thanks

UKMO decent at +120 also which is a semi reliable time frame. In saying that it's probably more like +72 in this instance.

+144 even better. Like to see the 850s but it looks good.

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#2129 01-02-2021 5:13pm
Reckless Abandonment

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can i google a picture

Looks nippy

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#2130 01-02-2021 5:15pm
Artane2002

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I know this is an Irish thread but the GFS brings -14c uppers over Scotland, which is crazy! And back to our island, I see -12c over eastern NI. Also boards crashed, so you know something special is showing on the models

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#2131 01-02-2021 5:15pm
TheMilkyPirate

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UKMO +144..

Would be nice to see the ECM go this way now. Not getting carried away but the rollercoaster is firmly stuck to the rails for now

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FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2020 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

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FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2020 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST