FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2020 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

TheMilkyPirate

squarecircles wrote: »

Its all gone down the ****ter again...am done.

I wouldn't go that far now. Low is slower to clear on the 6z but it's such fine margins I wouldn't worry too much. Models are starting to come to a consensus of sorts and finer details will be ironed out today.

Artane2002

squarecircles wrote: »

Its all gone down the ****ter again...am done.

no it hasn't, it's a variation on a theme but not a variation that we'd like to see. at least the easterly is still there! there's still plenty of time for improvements.

Rebelbrowser

squarecircles wrote: »

Its all gone down the ****ter again...am done.

While clearly there are plenty grounds for optimism, I agree this isn't good. You would have thought by today you would have a model consensus if we really were 5 or 6 days away from a serious cold spell.

Villain

Await the GEFS, a single 6z run doesn't change much. We are still in FI so expect the roller coaster to continue.

When we move into the up to 120hrs thread then we can worry more about one run changes

sicknotexi

Not every run is going to be like last nights pub run. UKMO was good this morning. I'm happy enough.

TheMilkyPirate

6z mean at +120. Hard not to be happy with that.

lucernarian

It's a small detail as models go but that low circling around to the south looks rather ominous. It's a bit of a trainwreck run but I have to wonder if it's an outlier for this part of the world. I'd wait till the 12z before reading too much into it.

typhoony

it's a feeble attempt at Cross Polar flow, even at that temps are borderline with best chance of snow is Monday night and Tuesday night, with lying snow in the morning in the East. I'd prefer if it was a proper raging easterly but we are going to get a few days of cold and with no atlantic air mixing apart from the very fringe of the west coast its' better than nothing.

KingdomRushed

It's not game over by any means, but we have been here before, once a counter trend to the cold begins to emerge it often slowly but surely eats away at it until suddenly we are looking at something completely different. Personally, I do not like to see it only 5 days out, it reduces the chance of it being a mere blip. The ensemble mean still shows cold easterly for next weekend, but it is now much more fragile.

John.Icy

Didn't get a chance to post earlier but I was surprised at the delight this morning in a way.

GFS was the ideal scenario (albeit a less unstable easterly maybe) but we saw a converging of the other big models (ECM, GEM, UKMO) rather than everyone joining the GFS. That had me a little worried. I don't like delays. Delays = more time for things to go wrong (or better too, but how many times do we get to say that). The 6z GFS is largely similar to the ECM 0z for Sunday.





A wise man would have always put his money on a middle ground rather than either the GFS or ECM to be right. ECM got colder but is the GFS going to start backing off it's much quicker evolution to cold? More runs needed.

Feel like Tony Holohan but the next set of runs is CRUCIAL (more like the next few days, lots of twists to come you feel).

Humberto Salazar

We'll see cold next weekend, but not an extended spell. ECM may win this standoff, it never went the GFS solution. We will know mid week with much more certainty.

John.Icy

TheMilkyPirate wrote: »

6z mean at +120. Hard not to be happy with that.

Looks OK visually but a definite shift in terms of cold to my eyes (though not a major one as of yet).

EDIT: Should say in terms of arrival (period around the 5th). Still plenty of cold members beyond that.

0z


6z

Rebelbrowser

Looking at those ensembles, the 6z does have more of the -13 and -14 uppers perturbations we like to see!

Villain

Full 6z GEFS and the 6z OP was on the milder side of the mean but within the possible outcomes, however look at many colder possible outcomes too. The roller coaster is winding up, will it crash or delivery?

Kermit.de.frog

We are well on the right track for something potentially memorable. Don't focus too much on run to run volatility. The margins are very fine and you will literally drive yourself insane doing that.

Best to focus on the over all trend which is really good for us.

sicknotexi

Para was much better than the gfs op fwiw.

Slashermcguirk

There is a lot of good potential there as of this morning.

Stevieluvsye wrote: »

You'll have a breakdown if you don't check your hopes.

The signs are there this morning that more than likely this will be a non event. In the sense there will be nothing memorable

pauldry

sicknotexi wrote: »

Para was much better than the gfs op fwiw.

Im not quite understanding this message.

Yeah I take Kermits point

We are absolutely sure to get Easterlies in February. At least I will be able to thermometer watch if nothing else.

Stevieluvsye

Slashermcguirk wrote: »

There is a lot of good potential there as of this morning.

Potential indeed. I'm reckoning something memorable at about 10% probability. It will be cold for a couple of days for sure, likely east coast will get some heavy snow showers on Monday at what i'm looking at, maybe in to monday night

Not much hope as the same depths as Emma delivered

sicknotexi

pauldry wrote: »

Im not quite understanding this message.

Yeah I take Kermits point

We are absolutely sure to get Easterlies in February. At least I will be able to thermometer watch if nothing else.

GFS para(v16) was a better/colder run than the original GFS. The para is due to take over from the GFS in the near future.

Quick synopsis of it:

"......the next GFS (v16) upgrade, which will include doubled vertical resolution (64 to 127 layers), more advanced physics, data assimilation system upgrades, and coupling to a NCEP's Global Wave Model using the Unified Forecast System (UFS) community model. Implementation of GFSv16 is targeted for the early winter of 2021."

Stevieluvsye

mcburns07 wrote: »

What are your credentials? Kermit is the snow god around here pal. :pac:

Credentials same as most on here. I'm saying what i see on the charts. I'm all for the eternal optimism but unless i'm missing something here i can't see anything of significance.

Unless i'm reading it wrong feel free to correct me. Not saying there won't be changes

sryanbruen

Stevieluvsye wrote: »

Potential indeed. I'm reckoning something memorable at about 10% probability. It will be cold for a couple of days for sure, likely east coast will get some heavy snow showers on Monday at what i'm looking at, maybe in to monday night

Not much hope as the same depths as Emma delivered

That was exceptional with the biggest snowfalls the east of the country had seen since 1982 or even longer ago like 1963/1947. If you have your benchmark against Emma, be prepared to be disappointed... Emma should not even be mentioned.

Such a mess anyway and we're relying heavily on a wedge to deliver decent height rises to the north later this week.

Stevieluvsye

Stevieluvsye wrote: »

You'll have a breakdown if you don't check your hopes.

The signs are there this morning that more than likely this will be a non event. In the sense there will be nothing memorable

Mark my words Kermie remembers all snow events:D

On the bigger point, we know the frigid air is more or less likely to come now
Let's see how long it takes to leave because that's far from settled

nacho libre

Stevieluvsye wrote: »

You'll have a breakdown if you don't check your hopes.

The signs are there this morning that more than likely this will be a non event. In the sense there will be nothing memorable

Memorable is subjective anyway. If by memorable you mean a beast from the east scenario that's a bit like pinning your hopes on a 100- 1 shot to win the Grand National. As it stands we may get at least a 2 to 3 day snowy spell for the usual suspects. That will not be a non event for them if it happens.

Gaoth Laidir

This is the best way of seeing the overall picture, in 3D. Chose Temp 2m/Vent and Temp 850 hPa and zoom in and out, move to more of a polar view and click animate to see what's likely to happen.

We're really only on the outer fringes of any cold outbreak, like waves lapping a shore.

http://www.meteociel.com/modeles/gfse_3d.php?lat=62.83&lon=-0.69&ech=25.28&zoom=4.77

Humberto Salazar

Stevieluvsye wrote: »

Credentials same as most on here. I'm saying what i see on the charts. I'm all for the eternal optimism but unless i'm missing something here i can't see anything of significance.

Unless i'm reading it wrong feel free to correct me. Not saying there won't be changes

We all want the white gold, but sometimes we can get blinded by Fantasy Island gravy. Let's hope it comes true. When you give an opinion contrary to what the masses want, you'll get slated here. It's weather, its a bit of fun. Ive been sceptical of this next outbreak in terms of longevity and deep cold. Nothing I've seen from ECM changes that. GFS is evolving a bit back to what ECM is showing. We may end with a blend of both. As for GEM ICON etc, I haven't looked at them so no comment. It's always a Rollercoaster ride.

sicknotexi

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

This is the best way of seeing the overall picture, in 3D. Chose Temp 2m/Vent and Temp 850 hPa and zoom in and out, move to more of a polar view and click animate to see what's likely to happen.

We're really only on the outer fringes of any cold outbreak, like waves lapping a shore.

http://www.meteociel.com/modeles/gfse_3d.php?lat=62.83&lon=-0.69&ech=25.28&zoom=4.77

True but that's the latest GFS run. We could still do a lot better(or worse). If it was a half way house between last nights pub run and this run we would be well in the game for a decent cold spell.

sicknotexi

Humberto Salazar wrote: »

We all want the white gold, but sometimes we can get blinded by Fantasy Island gravy. Let's hope it comes true. When you give an opinion contrary to what the masses want, you'll get slated here. It's weather, its a bit of fun. Ive been sceptical of this next outbreak in terms of longevity and deep cold. Nothing I've seen from ECM changes that. GFS is evolving a bit back to what ECM is showing. We may end with a blend of both. As for GEM ICON etc, I haven't looked at them so no comment. It's always a Rollercoaster ride.

The GEM was a fine run this morning. ICON wasn't great.

Gaoth Laidir

sicknotexi wrote: »

True but that's the latest GFS run. We could still do a lot better(or worse). If it was a half way house between last nights pub run and this run we would be well in the game for a decent cold spell.

Don't take frame by frame literally. Look that the polar view animation, speed it up and get a general flavour of the largescale shifts. That cross-polar high that comes in from the Chukchi and East Siberian Seas, for example, splitting the 500-hPa vortex to two poles over Siberia and North America. Will it bridge with the high that builds in the Greenland Sea? Probably unlikely. Switch also to the ICON and ARPEGE to get a flavour of their take on it.

For me it's unlikely that the Greenland Sea high will connect with the polar high, with the vortex reforming down into mid-month and most likely a period of westerlies with that. It could, of course, not go that way, which is why this type of forecasting is fairly pointless, except for the entertainment value. But like all entertainment/sport, be prepared for your team to lose too.

Danno

almostthere12 wrote: »

Curious as to where you are viewing the upgraded version? thanks

Wetterzentrale version: https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=gfs&var=1&time=0&run=6&lid=PARA&h=0&tr=3&mv=0#mapref