FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2020 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

nacho libre

About as good as it gets. Heavy snow showers widely . The only way is down from here

Villain

UKMO looks good too, the GFS has a serious snow event for Eastern England which will surely crash Netweather soon




All eyes on the ECM later, a further step in the right direction and we can start building confidence but do remember the fun is still in FI!

Let's get the cold in and then look for the snow.

KingdomRushed

The rot has stopped. And actually reversed in style.

Laaaaahvley

bazlers

nacho libre wrote: »

About as good as it gets. Heavy snow showers widely . The only way is down from here

What are you calling Relianle time frame NL so i know when yo go buy the bread:)

Reckless Abandonment

Yeah nacho.. easterly starts early Saturday and continues till Tuesday. If the Gfs is even half right some parts of the country will be in snow heaven..

nacho libre

TheMilkyPirate wrote: »

UKMO +144..



Would be nice to see the ECM go this way now. Not getting carried away but the rollercoaster is firmly stuck to the rails for now

We could be in slidergate territory a bit further on from 144 going by that chart.

Gonzo

latest models are looking very good particularly the UKMO and GFS. Looking at the 00z, 6z and now the 12z that's some difference and I don't think we are done with the upgrades and downgrades. If we can finally get that ECM on board this evening that would be the biggest single upgrade of confidence. We really need it to jump onboard.

lucernarian

Villain wrote: »

UKMO looks good too, the GFS has a serious snow event for Eastern England which will surely crash Netweather soon




All eyes on the ECM later, a further step in the right direction and we can start building confidence but do remember the fun is still in FI!

Let's get the cold in and then look for the snow.

Indeed, that evolution reminds me of Storm Emma for the east coast of England, especially the southeast. But again, it's just one run so they needn't get carried away yet it does look like widespread cold and snow showers in much of northwest Europe is on the way.

Reversal

The clearing of the low to open the flood gates happens beore T96, surely we can get certainty at that point soon.

nacho libre

bazlers wrote: »

What are you calling Relianle time frame NL so i know when yo go buy the bread:)

We've seen it all go pear shaped at just three or fours days out before. I would say believe it if we see this kind of scenario countdown to 48 hours.

KingdomRushed

We don't call it the Rollercoaster for nothing!

Worth bearing in mind to get an upgrade like this at <120 hrs before the progged easterly is worth double the weight it would have been yesterday at the longer time frame. We are moving into THE ZONE where variation will soon start to decline at least on the macro level very rapidly.

This is one of the nicest little upgrades I can recall, given the wobbles in the morning.

Very tasty, and that 12Z GFS if it comes off like that would have huge snow potential from Sunday onwards, no marginality, baltic stuff.

Little snowy old me

KingdomRushed wrote: »

We don't call it the Rollercoaster for nothing!

Worth bearing in mind to get an upgrade like this at <120 hrs before the progged easterly is worth double the weight it would have been yesterday at the longer time frame. We are moving into THE ZONE where variation will soon start to decline at least on the macro level very rapidly.

This is one of the nicest little upgrades I can recall, given the wobbles in the morning.

Very tasty, and that 12Z GFS if it comes off like that would have huge snow potential from Sunday onwards, no marginality, baltic stuff.

Stop it! You're teasing us! Could this actually be happening??

Rebelbrowser

GEM still rolling out but looking pretty good - cold takes a little longer to get here but by Monday looking good. In fact it has a (further) low sliding across the south coast this weekend as the cold sets in from the north which could drop a fair bit of snow in these parts. Always nice to get the first 10cm at the start of the cold spell, takes the edge of the nerves!

Edit - that low doesn't slide, it gets lodged, so we end up with cold but not the deep cold of other models...

Kermit.de.frog

I'm guessing it will be the weekend either way in terms of timing of deeper cold arrival so a big enough spread. Some time between Friday and Sunday possibly.

Kermit.de.frog

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

Edit - that low doesn't slide, it gets lodged, so we end up with cold but not the deep cold of other models...

This is what you're looking for :pac:

Gonzo

GEM still no great shakes, needs further enhancements, but there is some snow potential there for Leinster and Munster.

Gonzo

GFS extends the cold spell by about 2 days, so potentially cold from Saturday to next Thursday. Snow depth possibilities of between 5cm and 20cm to parts of Leinster.

lucernarian

Gonzo wrote: »

GEM still no great shakes, needs further enhancements, but there is some snow potential there for Leinster and Munster.

The way it evolves in FI is a bit "generic" to me, if a block like what's forecast is lingering around between Greenland and Scandinavia I don't see an Atlantic LP just barging towards Europe without it tracking further south. But that's like 8-10 days out even so.

nacho libre

The GEM if it verified would give snow more widely across Ireland. As would the GFS around the 10th.

Actually in such an unstable flow, troughs could pop up which move from east to west before then, but the east will of course see the most snow

Nqp15hhu

Reckless Abandonment wrote: »

Yeah nacho.. easterly starts early Saturday and continues till Tuesday. If the Gfs is even half right some parts of the country will be in snow heaven..

And large swathes will be dry.

nacho libre

Gonzo wrote: »

GFS extends the cold spell by about 2 days, so potentially cold from Saturday to next Thursday. Snow depth possibilities of between 5cm and 20cm to parts of Leinster.

If we get the depth of cold suggested by the this run, Atlantic systems could well slide under the block. Even if they don't a lot of people will have got their wish for a few days of snow that stayed around. No point being too focused on when it ends.

gerrybhoy

Right,am I dusting down the kids sleds or what

Nqp15hhu

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

And large swathes will be dry.

Parts of coastal Wicklow 11cms 4 inches
Naas co kildare nearly 2 feet
Basically a mirror image of the last week of Feb 2018
A population area of up to 2 million people would be blanketed deeply, so rather significant, should it happen
Its happened as recently as 3 years ago so quite possible

munsterlegend

nacho libre wrote: »

If we get the depth of cold suggested by the this run, Atlantic systems could well slide under the block. Even if they don't a lot of people will have got their wish for a few days of snow that stayed around. No point being too focused on when it ends.

3 or 4 days of lying snow would do me just fine. I actually get sick of being curtailed on day 3.oh wait I can’t go anywhere anyway..

TheMilkyPirate

I think the GFS is a pretty extreme outcome and unlikely to verify but it's looking more and more likely that it will turn very cold this weekend and a lot of the East coast at least will see snow at some stage.

Larbre34

gerrybhoy wrote: »

Right,am I dusting down the kids sleds or what

I wouldn't.

Cold air yes, lot of energy, no. Some sea effect streamers would be expected later in the period but generally cold and very dry with low humidity.

sicknotexi

Further Outlook: Turning cooler as a northerly airflow moves in over the country. Scattered showers persisting through Friday, although sunny spells will occur also. Current indications suggest it will be drier on Saturday.

Latest Met Eireann update. Hopefully by Wednesday the wording will have changed to 'much colder in an easterly airflow'.

Gonzo

latest GFS run is quite snowy indeed, but as always this will change from run to run. Pinch of salt with this.Will know soon if this GFS 12z is an outlier.

mcburns07

Those are some serious snow depths for the UK :O

Oneiric 3

UKMO 12z 850s. -10s into the NE: