FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2020 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

Zogabomb

Daz_ wrote: »

And I thought this was supposed to be the technical model discussion forum ...

It's a Fantasy Island Model Discussion, AuntySnow has given his opinion on what he thinks in a few weeks time based on model runs!

Jizique

AuntySnow wrote: »

Right I've made my mind up on this
The solution has more tweaks to come in the same direction in my opinion
The trend seems to be forwards and backwards but momentum along the same road to the country eventually covered in minus 10s and 11's about mid fdbruaryish I'd expect maybe sooner
Less marginality with each brush with cold as they come,from here on , I would think before the main event(s)

Rising temperatures this week according to Siobhan

JanuarySnowstor

Always a good sign to see Met Eireann oblivious to the upcoming cold spell!! Watch them come kicking and screaming to our train of thought as the week goes on.
Almost more fun than seeing snow on the ground lol☺

Oneiric 3

EC at day 10. Quite the spectacle to see almost the entire north American continent, along with the good part of the European continent, under cooler than average conditions at the same time.

Gaoth Laidir

Daz_ wrote: »

And I thought this was supposed to be the technical model discussion forum ...

Forecasting is not just looking at models. In fact, models are actually well down the order when it comes to forecasting and should only be used as a last check to refine what you think will happen based on knowledge, experience, etc.

munsterlegend

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Forecasting is not just looking at models. In fact, models are actually well down the order when it comes to forecasting and should only be used as a last check to refine what you think will happen based on knowledge, experience, etc.

Now you tell us..

TheMilkyPirate

18z has the low further west and weakening much faster

bazlers

A nation holds its breath!

munsterlegend

bazlers wrote: »

A nation holds its breath!

Gfs O’Leary against ECM Lung (I think) ...

Holy Duck

Are we there yet
Are we there yet
Are we there yet

ninebeanrows

Turning chilly by Saturday on latest GFS

TheMilkyPirate

GFS holds firm and is an upgrade on the 12z

TheMilkyPirate

Run of the week coming up from the pub run

Artane2002

-12c uppers into eastern Northern Ireland, I don't think they'll make it further south though.

ninebeanrows

The 18z has been down the pub all day, probably a Leeds fan.

Artane2002

surely it's going to be an outlier? it feels too good to be true and might be close to my personal definition of a beasterly! here it is at T192.



Edit: It actually brings widespread -12c uppers on Sunday, I somehow missed that! I want to wish for slightly lower thicknesses but maybe that's a bit cheeky!

TheMilkyPirate

T2Pauly

If these come to fruition will the Irish Sea snow machine be in full flow from Saturday ? Hoping we get buried ❄️ ❄️

bazlers

Artane2002 wrote: »

-12c uppers into eastern Northern Ireland, I don't think they'll make it further south though.

munsterlegend wrote: »

Gfs O’Leary against ECM Lung (I think) ...

Yes its there! ; ) exceeded expectations. Need it to hold steady now and ECM to be a good boy and do as we tell it..

munsterlegend

All go to bed happy to find that when we wake up the 00z runs have done a complete u-turn. We never learn!

bazlers

munsterlegend wrote: »

All go to bed happy to find that when we wake up the 00z runs have done a complete u-turn. We never learn!

Correct and we dry our tears and start all over again. Nice to see though.

JanuarySnowstor

Artane2002 wrote: »

-12c uppers into eastern Northern Ireland, I don't think they'll make it further south though.

Your spot on!! Remains -11 everywhere else!

Artane2002

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Your spot on!! Remains -11 everywhere else!

the -11s around most of the country could be rounded down to -12c so I'd be happy to be wrong this one time

JanuarySnowstor

Still not convinced.
Burnt too many times and heights remain flimsy.
It could easily end up just dry and cold or Atlantic winning out.
The trend is our friend for now!!

Kunta Kinte

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Your spot on!! Remains -11 everywhere else!

Artane2002 wrote: »

the -11s around most of the country could be rounded down to -12c so I'd be happy to be wrong this one time

Where are you seeing the -11 uppers figure on that chart? Or is this an in joke?

Artane2002

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Still not convinced.
Burnt too many times and heights remain flimsy.
It could easily end up just dry and cold or Atlantic winning out.
The trend is our friend for now!!

I'm also unconvinced but surprisingly it's not a cold outlier! There are nine runs that go colder than the op, with perturbation 11 bringing -14.5c uppers and the mean is -8.4c at its lowest. it'll probably be back down to earth on the 0z though?

Kunta Kinte wrote: »

Where are you seeing the -11 uppers figure on that chart? Or is this an in joke?

I posted a chart from theweatheroutlook showing the -11/-12c uppers. it's at the top of the page if you're on the desktop website.

Kermit.de.frog

Setting up fairly nicely on ICON

TheMilkyPirate

TheMilkyPirate wrote: »

Beautiful chart
A low heading SE for where the pesky iberian high used be
I suppose I don't have to tell anyone what a northeasterly in -10 to -12 uppers would do from Louth to waterford
Probably give them only few hour's to call friends in the next county inland warning them of what's coming before communications go down

Kermit.de.frog

oohhh I have the OP for the build up thread ready and a full explanation of how this will compare to Tom Crean's Antarctic expedition for the average Joe

Just need the ECM on board

Davaeo09

The Irish sea would be balmy compared to those temps!
Snow machine on switch at the ready!