FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2020 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

Gonzo

mcburns07 wrote: »

Those are some serious snow depths for the UK :O

I think those snow depths in the UK are fairly unlikely, these are bordering on extreme and will most likely be downgraded on the next run.

sicknotexi

For a change the GFS and GFS para are both decent. Usually it's one or the other.

Stevieluvsye

It is getting very close now to being locked in. If say the charts this time tomorrow start to produce some deep cold you can pretty much lock it in. Just then depends on the stability and how long it lasts

I'd be a lot more optimistic about it now and i expect the ECM to follow suit

esposito

Stevieluvsye wrote: »

It is getting very close now to being locked in. If say the charts this time tomorrow start to produce some deep cold you can pretty much lock it in. Just then depends on the stability and how long it lasts

I'd be a lot more optimistic about it now and i expect the ECM to follow suit

Hope you’re right but just remember 2012... was looking nailed on at 72 hours out and then the easterly vanished. Caution required. Hopefully ECM delivers this evening.

Nqp15hhu

esposito wrote: »

Hope you’re right but just remember 2012... was looking nailed on at 72 hours out and then the easterly vanished. Caution required. Hopefully ECM delivers this evening.

This is coming from the north east though which usually has more of a chance of occurring, as the cold air has less of a distance to travel.

Oneiric 3

Gonzo wrote: »

I think those snow depths in the UK are fairly unlikely, these are bordering on extreme and will most likely be downgraded on the next run.

Unlikely but entirely possible. The east of England can do big snow on occasion.

Villain

The GFS OP was on the coldest side of the spread but so also was the Control! Both well below the MEAN so caution required here.

Reckless Abandonment

mcburns07 wrote: »

Those are some serious snow depths for the UK :O

If the Irish Sea gets going parts of the east could get similar. Didnt skynews come to kildare during storm Emma as it was buried

Slashermcguirk

Parts of the east got well over a metre, I remember the likes of Kildare village, sallins got enormous amounts. Some of the pics were phenomenal

Reckless Abandonment wrote: »

If the Irish Sea gets going parts of the east could get similar. Didnt skynews come to kildare during storm Emma as it was buried

Gonzo

GFS 12z is almost a cold outlier but there are a few other members going colder again. Worth noting too that there are less in the way of mild outliers over the weekend and early next week. Majority of the runs are colder than the mean, at least for a time. I've a feeling the pub run will be a downgrade but hopefully not too much of a downgrade.

Right now all focus is on the ECM, that is going to be critical to end today on a high note.

Slashermcguirk

Nothing gets this forum lit up like the prospect of a great easterly / north easterly. The ultimate for snow. Come on the ECM

leeash10

I hope its not a repeat of Storm Emma, it was three weeks before we got out, snow plough cant get down our lane as it would take out the granite walls.

Gonzo

leeash10 wrote: »

I hope its not a repeat of Storm Emma, it was three weeks before we got out, snow plough cant get down our lane as it would take out the granite walls.

Highly unlikely it will be anything like that.

If current 12z GFS was to verify many areas would see 5 to 10cm of snow, far below Storm Emma levels. The IOM and Ulster Shadows would be a cause for concern over much of Meath and Louth. Right now these snow charts are almost meaningless as they will constantly change from run to run.

munsterlegend

Impossible to predict snow anounts at this range I would have thought. Get the easterly/north easterly flow in and who knows what feature will appear.

Oneiric 3

Gonzo wrote: »

Highly unlikely it will be anything like that.

If current 12z GFS was to verify many areas would see 5 to 10cm of snow, far below Storm Emma levels. The IOM and Ulster Shadows would be a cause for concern over much of Meath and Louth. Right now these snow charts are almost meaningless as they will constantly change from run to run.

Just going by that map, when you say 'many areas', do you really mean areas that are in and around the Wicklow mountains?

Villain

The ECM and UMO at 96hrs

ECM:


UKMO:


Not much in it!

Tyrone212

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Just going by that map, when you say 'many areas', do you really mean areas that are in and around the Wicklow mountains?

Looks like a dusting for some areas outside of Dublin/Wicklow mountains and to a lesser extent Antrim hills.

Kermit.de.frog

Villain wrote: »

The ECM and UMO at 96hrs

ECM:


UKMO:


Not much in it!

Yeah they are pretty much at one by 96 hrs. The practical effect is a day or two delay getting deeper cold air here.

Kermit.de.frog

That'll do

TheMilkyPirate

A bit slower clearing the low but we get there

Stevieluvsye

https://max.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20210201/12/132/h850t850eu.png

nacho libre

Nice.

TheMilkyPirate

ECM +168 is a beauty

nacho libre

Are the uppers ok? Could be a bit marginal if this verifies;)

Reckless Abandonment

It just keeps giving

Villain

That ECM is a beauty! If this rollercoaster crashes there will be a lot of tears!

Still in FI, have to remember that, risk increasing but nothing certain.

TheMilkyPirate

Wow what a run!

Rebelbrowser

Thread! Thread! Thread!

ninebeanrows

It is a very beautiful EC that would bring lots of snow

munsterlegend

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

Thread! Thread! Thread!

We’ve had them for a lot less Atlantic muck! Probably best to wait until Wednesday/Thursday.