FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2020 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST

nacho libre · 31-12-2020 1:44pm

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

Can confirm it was mostly a slush fest when I lived in east Anglia. It actually snowed about 5 times a winter (didn’t lie) but was mostly around 8-12c. Contrast that to here where we pretty much have periodic cold spells each winter month and are guaranteed at least a few days of snow cover.

They always say it’s colder there than Northern Ireland but we get far more snow.

I remember being at a ice sculpture competition near the Thames during an easterly back in 2012, it felt colder than most easterlies i've experienced here. As you say though, it's definitely not the place to be if you like to see snow regularly. In my time there I saw sod all snow.

Oneiric 3 · 31-12-2020 2:52pm

nacho libre wrote: »

I remember being at a ice sculpture competition near the Thames during an easterly back in 2012, it felt colder than most easterlies i've experienced here. As you say though, it's definitely not the place to be if you like to see snow regularly. In my time there I saw sod all snow.

I have lived in both Manchester (born there) and S. Yorks, and there is world of difference between both climates. Yorkshire much better for snow than here, but Manchester is even worse.

circadian · 31-12-2020 2:56pm

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

I have lived in both Manchester (born there) and S. Yorks, and there is world of difference between both climates. Yorkshire much better for snow than here, but Manchester is even worse.

Yeah I've lived around those areas too, Huddersfield/Halifax in particular always yielded great snow being in the Pennines and all that.

Manchester despite being a great city, the weather was more often than not muck of the highest order.

Gonzo · 31-12-2020 2:59pm

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

I have lived in both Manchester (born there) and S. Yorks, and there is world of difference between both climates. Yorkshire much better for snow than here, but Manchester is even worse.

Manchester still does better than most of Ireland tho, certainly Dublin for snow in winter and warmth in the summer.

Slashermcguirk · 31-12-2020 3:01pm

The weather in Manchester is very grim, certainly the times I was there. Glasgow is utterly horrendous. Never stops raining. While the Scottish highlands get a lot of snow I was surprised how little proper snow Glasgow and Edinburgh get.

quote="circadian;115757886"]Yeah I've lived around those areas too, Huddersfield/Halifax in particular always yielded great snow being in the Pennines and all that.

Manchester despite being a great city, the weather was more often than not muck of the highest order.[/quote]

Slashermcguirk · 31-12-2020 3:04pm

Not sure about that, Manchester gets little snow and their summers are definitely not good by any stretch. During a heat wave maybe but that’s more the south east east of England. Manchester has a miserable climate. They average over 900 mm of rain annually, Dublin closer to 700mm average.

That’s not to say Dublin has a good climate! It’s better than many parts of UK though. Scotland and northern half of England have abysmal weather,

Gonzo wrote: »

Manchester still does better than most of Ireland tho, certainly Dublin for snow in winter and warmth in the summer.

Oneiric 3 · 31-12-2020 3:17pm

Slashermcguirk wrote: »

they average over 900 mm of rain annually, Dublin closer to 700mm average.

,

Most of Ireland averages over 1000mm.

Gonzo is partly right. Manchester can occasionally get a skim of those SE England heatwaves, but all in all, it's climate is very similar to ours on a day by day basis (it's practically an Irish city anyway!)

Donegal Storm · 31-12-2020 3:22pm

I've never really been but I would have thought Dublin gets better summers than Manchester, looking at wikipedia they seem broadly comparable though, Manchester slightly warmer but Dublin drier so I'd probably take Dublin as the better.

I lived in SE England for a few years as well and saw next to no snow, winters aren't as miserable as we get in Ireland but they're deathly boring, just endless cloud and the odd day of light rain

TheMilkyPirate · 31-12-2020 3:25pm

This is a technical discussion thread for FI models. I and am sure a lot more have no interest in whether the Manchester or South Yorkshire climate is more conductive to snow.

Gonzo · 31-12-2020 3:28pm

ok back to the discussion of charts, the GFS 12z has just begun rolling, so let's see what this brings over the next 90 minutes.

Donegal Storm · 31-12-2020 3:31pm

TheMilkyPirate wrote: »

This is a technical discussion thread for FI models. I and am sure a lot more have no interest in whether Manchester or South Yorkshires climate is more conductive to snow.

Indeed it is! Nothing too interesting on the models though, great synoptics in a normal winter with a blocked Atlantic and persistent northerlies & easterlies but there's just no cold air to draw from anywhere within a thousand miles

And looking at the bigger picture, the PV lobe currently over Canada looks set to migrate towards Siberia so it looks like we'll be fighting over scraps rather than seeing any deep cold spell in the next while

Slashermcguirk · 31-12-2020 3:31pm

Yes but Dublin has a better and drier climate than Manchester. I was referring to Dublin specifically but west / south west of Ireland certainly wetter

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Most of Ireland averages over 1000mm.

Gonzo is partly right. Manchester can occasionally get a skim of those SE England heatwaves, but all in all, it's climate is very similar to ours on a day by day basis (it's practically an Irish city anyway!)

ninebeanrows · 31-12-2020 3:33pm

Gonzo wrote: »

ok back to the discussion of charts, the GFS 12z has just begun rolling, so let's see what this brings over the next 90 minutes.

If those uppers with the east, northeast flow can drop a few degrees will be crucial,

-6,-7 just aint enough, -8,-9 is a different ball game.

Slashermcguirk · 31-12-2020 3:34pm

I think looking towards mid January, it looks very promising

Donegal Storm wrote: »

Indeed it is! Nothing too interesting on the models though, great synoptics in a normal winter with a blocked Atlantic and persistent northerlies & easterlies but there's just no cold air to draw from anywhere within a thousand miles

And looking at the bigger picture, the PV lobe currently over Canada looks set to migrate towards Siberia so it looks like we'll be fighting over scraps rather than seeing any deep cold spell in the next while

Gonzo · 31-12-2020 3:49pm

Sleety_Rain wrote: »

If those uppers with the east, northeast flow can drop a few degrees will be crucial,

-6,-7 just aint enough, -8,-9 is a different ball game.

I don't feel totally comfortable with an easterly until we start to see the -10 uppers appearing very close to us or over us. Anything below -8C is usually marginal with rain near the coasts.

Kermit.de.frog · 31-12-2020 4:40pm

All the models have the "trigger" low here in common to our northwest around 144 hrs.

Seems to all hinge on how that is going to drop. I guess having it drop right down over us is probably the best path. We absolutely don't want it too far west. We could do with a lowering of pressure over western Russia as well.

gfs-0-144.png?12

UKMO probably best for us so far.

Kermit.de.frog · 31-12-2020 4:52pm

This is how we want that to evolve...the low pressure slipping south smartly and an easterly flow in it's wake much more potent

gem-0-240.png?12

Actually GEM above (never too far away from ECM) is carrying a lot of cold air and snow with that system.

Afterward the beast is on track...

gem-1-240.png?12

Gonzo · 31-12-2020 5:07pm

GEM goes with a dusting in most places by the 10th of January. Hopefully this will upgrade more closer to the time.

GFS goes for a low to moderate covering across the eastern half of Ireland by the same day.

240-780PUK.GIF?31-12

Artane2002 · 31-12-2020 5:52pm

this is just a single perturbation and almost certainly an outlier so not to be taken seriously at all but WOW

Gonzo · 31-12-2020 5:54pm

Artane2002 wrote: »

this is just a single perturbation and almost certainly an outlier so not to be taken seriously at all but WOW

yeah it's absolutely on it's own, -18 uppers across the country, about as likely as +20 uppers in August. Majority of the models are between 0C and -8C.

Kermit.de.frog · 31-12-2020 6:30pm

Good ECM so far. Increasing risk of snow showers in the east next week particularly around Tuesday.

Snowbiee21 · 31-12-2020 6:32pm

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Good ECM so far. Increasing risk of snow showers in the east next week particularly around Tuesday.

Into the freezerðŸ˜‰

Humberto Salazar · 31-12-2020 6:40pm

Snowbiee21 wrote: »

Into the freezerðŸ˜‰

It's good around Tuesday but less cold Wednesday. And the old problem of no deep cold continues. It's locked up there way up in Greenland, not much over Scandi and E Europe. SSW remains the hope. Still out of range of ECM so far.

Villain · 31-12-2020 6:41pm

ECM is trying to open the freezer door! Will it succeed?

ninebeanrows · 31-12-2020 6:50pm

Villain wrote: »

ECM is trying to open the freezer door! Will it succeed?

Did you just jinx it?:P

Humberto Salazar · 31-12-2020 6:51pm

Villain wrote: »

ECM is trying to open the freezer door! Will it succeed?

I think we'd better bin this run.... Big low to the NW at 216. Can't be right surely?

Villain · 31-12-2020 6:59pm

Sleety_Rain wrote: »

Did you just jinx it?:P

Haha! Looks like it, very odd end to that run but just goes to show how FI can go.

ninebeanrows · 31-12-2020 7:07pm

Villain wrote: »

Haha! Looks like it, very odd end to that run but just goes to show how FI can go.

Ironically the 240hr chart would give a dump of snow to Carlow

froog · 31-12-2020 7:13pm

so am i right in saying "uppers" or the higher elevation weather is the key to all weather? i.e. it's where forecasting begins?

Gonzo · 31-12-2020 7:17pm

uppers not great on that ECM, mostly holding between -3 and -6C, gets to -7C briefly and a mild end.

Slashermcguirk · 31-12-2020 7:18pm

Scandinavia is cooling down. Oslo and inland from there heading towards day time temps around -5 to -10. Middle and upper Sweden really cooling down too between -10 to -15 by day. Those figures were closer to 0 and even above 0 some days last week. Would like to see Eastern Europe colder though.

Humberto Salazar wrote: »

It's good around Tuesday but less cold Wednesday. And the old problem of no deep cold continues. It's locked up there way up in Greenland, not much over Scandi and E Europe. SSW remains the hope. Still out of range of ECM so far.

Nqp15hhu · 31-12-2020 7:30pm

froog wrote: »

so am i right in saying "uppers" or the higher elevation weather is the key to all weather? i.e. it's where forecasting begins?

It’s a guide. You need to look at soundings to see if there is a warm layer.

sicknotexi · 31-12-2020 7:40pm

I'm encouraged that both the Met Office and ECM give colder uppers for a few days next week. Wouldnt worry as much with the ECM going off on one at the end of the run. Better to have decent cold synoptic nearer the time and a breakdown in FI than constantly chasing day 10 charts.

31-12-2020 7:45pm

Gonzo wrote: »

uppers not great on that ECM, mostly holding between -3 and -6C, gets to -7C briefly and a mild end.

Actually - 8 uppers visit us in about 5 days time on tonight's ECM, just tipping any precipitation to the right side of marginal at that time
YOU can take a couple of things out of tonight's ECM
First is that it's showing beyond 144 for the first time in this period of model watching a route back to Atlantic dominated weather
Or that beyond 144 is FI, so like the other big two Especially with the giant curve ball of strat warming, pv displacement/splits entering the mix, its wrong

For the past week, I've not been expecting the Atlantic to unblock for a few weeks
So we'll have to see how things unfold or what's made of the low from the northwest
If it kills off our atlantic high and any hope of a Greenland high or northern blocking, there's no point looking northeast or east anymore
By my reckoning, give or take Modeling up to 120hrs has been good lately
Beyond that it's been iffy
We'll know more by this time tomorrow or at least if there's a spanner in the works
I'm not expecting there will be

Meteorite58 · 31-12-2020 7:45pm

Liking the lack of rain for the western side of the country out until next weekend, not completely dry of course but a break from all the Atlantic LP's . Lots of cold weather for sure and plenty of frosty nights. Will be interesting to see how the NE'lys , Ely's play out during next week, looks like weather from the NW close to or over next weekend at some stage, will have to see how cold it is and what track the system and fronts take, a long way off yet.

nacho libre · 31-12-2020 7:52pm

Well the good news is some places could see snow next week.
The bad news is some of the models seem to be converging on the idea of a west- based NAO further on. We just have to hope this is just another example of variability before they get a handle on the ssw, but the one worry i have is we've seen a west based nao suggested a few times in the last 8 -9 days by the GFS. Let's hope if it does in fact turn out that way, it's a temporary thing.
Hopefully the next GFS pub run shows -12 uppers over us!

Snowbiee21 · 31-12-2020 8:03pm

nacho libre wrote: »

Well the good news is some places could see snow next week.
The bad news is some of the models seem to be converging on the idea of a west- based NAO further on. We just have to hope this is just another example of variability before they get a handle on the ssw, but the one worry i have is we've seen a west based nao suggested a few times in the last 8 -9 days by the GFS. Let's hope if it does in fact turn out that way, it's a temporary thing.
Hopefully the next GFS pub run shows -12 uppers over us!

Agree, West based Nao gaining some consistency on the models the last few days.

Nqp15hhu · 31-12-2020 8:04pm

Met office gives me highs of 3/4c for the next few days beyond tomorrow. That’s crisp enough and should mean close to freezing on the hill tops.

I will take that.

Jin luk · 31-12-2020 9:26pm

What time will the next charts be out?

This is getting orgasmic looking at these ðŸ˜…

JanuarySnowstor · 31-12-2020 9:33pm

Amazing how Met Eireann make the outlook sound so boring. Surely we are on the cusp yet all they can say is cold and dry. Cold and dry is slap bang under a hp

Rougies · 31-12-2020 9:40pm

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Amazing how Met Eireann make the outlook sound so boring. Surely we are on the cusp yet all they can say is cold and dry. Cold and dry is slap bang under a hp

Their outlook looks pretty accurate to me, cold and mostly dry apart from wintry showers. There may be more significant Irish Sea streamers next week, but they are difficult to forecast, and anything beyond that is lala land at the moment.

Snowbiee21 · 31-12-2020 11:00pm

...

BLIZZARD7 · 31-12-2020 11:01pm

On the 18z GFS the 850hpa temps look cold enough (sub -7c) to me for likely mainly all snow Irish sea streamers next week, particularly later on as the pressure drops.

Great run overall so far...

Snowbiee21 · 31-12-2020 11:03pm

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

On the 18z GFS the 850hpa temps look cold enough (sub -7c) to me for likely mainly all snow Irish sea streamers next week, particularly later on as the pressure drops.

Great run overall so far...

Yes looking okay, I’d say you’d need a few k away from coasts. Increased chances the more inland you are.

Roots 2020 · 31-12-2020 11:10pm

Good snowfall for many today.

I'm confident it won't be just higher ground but all will see snow in January, February 2021.

Hope all who want snow have some.

Happy New Year everyone!

Artane2002 · 31-12-2020 11:16pm

Snowbiee21 wrote: »

Yes looking okay, I’d say you’d need a few k away from coasts. Increased chances the more inland you are.

coastal Dublin/north Wicklow could get some snow showers according to that run, dewpoints are at or under 0c in those areas, dewpoints must be zero or under if it is going to snow. I'd guess southwest Dublin/Kildare are the sweet spots on that run.

this may be my last post of the year so happy new year to everyone!

bazlers · 31-12-2020 11:23pm

Happy New Year all. Wont be long until 3" of snow will be yawned upon : )

pad199207 · 31-12-2020 11:28pm

Artane2002 wrote: »

coastal Dublin/north Wicklow could get some snow showers according to that run, dewpoints are at or under 0c in those areas, dewpoints must be zero or under if it is going to snow. I'd guess southwest Dublin/Kildare are the sweet spots on that run.

this may be my last post of the year so happy new year to everyone!

The good old N7 Corridor

Meteorite58 · 31-12-2020 11:45pm

GFS 18Z as complex as you can get. Showing a lot of wintry precipitation from around next Thurs into the weekend for a wide part of the country. The last couple of runs showing some weather from the NW with plenty of cold air about. ECM also showing weather from the N to the NW and plenty cold and showing wintry conditions/ snow potential for a wider part of the country next weekend. Just to be taken as hints of something at this stage I suppose.

Oh and Happy New Year !!

Kermit.de.frog · 01-01-2021 12:32am

Happy new year everyone! It will happen (next week)! :cool:

Goodbye 2020

FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2020 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

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FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2020 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST