FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2020 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

nacho libre

Humberto Salazar wrote: »

Not liking the ECM as much this morning. Are we cold lovers going to be heartbroken again?

Yes, it looks like a west- based nao could be setting up on some models. I remember Elmer Booker complaining about this back in February 2018, but it was the west based nao that facilitated storm Emma to happen, but it also hastened the end of our cold spell. The bad news this time is that there is no entrenched cold as a starting base. I think what may end up happening is a halfway house solution between the three main models. Which could mean we end up with mixed wintry precipitation rather than powdery snow from the east or northeast. Anyway most of us have been here long enough to know not to get emotionally invested in eye candy charts till they are down to 48 hours.

Gonzo

Mod Note: far too much general chat going on in here and I've deleted several off topic comments that are not really related to current FI Charts. This thread is for technical discussion of charts beyond 120 hours only and any more off topic/general chat posts will be deleted unless they are referring to the latest charts.

Humberto Salazar

GFS latest rolling out. Evolution after Christmas is really interesting, complex low drifting over us, and could bring a wintry mix. I don't think its the winter wonderland scenario we all (mostly) want but it will be interesting I hope. Last few Christmases haven't really been. Need to see ECM later.

bnt

The GFS for 27-28 Dec shows some snow but rain too, and temperatures dropping below freezing overnights only. Not a repeat of March 2018 this time, I suspect.

icesnowfrost

26- 29 looks interesting as does most of the model runs from the 23rd. Looks like a prolonged cold spell is trying to set up. I’d say some may get snow and some won’t but i think the models are going to chop and change with different cold set ups for the next few days and keep us guessing.

Gonzo

It's clear to see there is a cool to cold pattern setting up just after Christmas but as of now there isn't enough support for real cold or a proper easterly. Latest GFS has some cold conditions but none of it is bitter cold suitable for powder snow and too much Atlantic influences.

I would like to see more runs like yesterday evenings ECM with several runs in a row building on that scene before gaining any confidence in this post Christmas cold spell. As of now we have the odd good run but they are isolated and still plenty of mild and high pressure runs contained within.

GEM has dropped the cold run from yesterday evening as well sending the cold into central Europe instead leaving us on the mild side with high pressure influences.

The models are going to keep us guessing for days to come but right now looks like we are along way from certain about decent cold weather just after Christmas.

ninebeanrows

Another EC run reluctant to rise heights around labrador and Greenland at t168hr

Kermit.de.frog

Sleety_Rain wrote: »

Another EC run reluctant to rise heights around labrador and Greenland at t168hr

It's close but for that spoiler cut off low coming out of Newfoundland. Narrow margins.

Humberto Salazar

ECM FI not able to bring deep cold in, because it simply isn't there. People have a go at me being negative, but looking at the FI charts we cannot seriously be happy with them. Things can change, but I'm concerned about real cold pools, and the lack of then to tap into. Feel free to disagree based on what we see as of tonight.

nacho libre

The lack of a cold pool isn't a major problem. If you had a high in the right position/orientation the cold pool would come our way in time.
The problem is 9 times out of 10 a trough or area of lower pressure off Newfoundland will scupper things for us. This is why I was doubtful of the eye candy charts from the GFS where by a mid atlantic high managed to make it towards the tip of Greenland.

Villain

Humberto Salazar wrote: »

ECM FI not able to bring deep cold in, because it simply isn't there. People have a go at me being negative, but looking at the FI charts we cannot seriously be happy with them. Things can change, but I'm concerned about real cold pools, and the lack of then to tap into. Feel free to disagree based on what we see as of tonight.

I think it was more the ignoring 2010 and 2018

It’s a bit messy but certainly not usual Westerly muck and plenty of potential and then SSW coming too could give us more chances next year.

rooney30

Sounds like we are done ?

Rebelbrowser

rooney30 wrote: »

Sounds like we are done ?

Not at all. The 18z gfs looks very interesting with snow on 27 and 30 Dec. Its still really up in the air. We are always up against it looking for snow, but by Irish standards the prospects for the next fortnight are considerably better than average.

US2

rooney30 wrote: »

Sounds like we are done ?

Correct. Look at the last few pages of this thread , everyday it's pushed out another day or 2. A dangling carrot. Funny how it's the most knowledgeable posters that fall for it the most

Humberto Salazar

rooney30 wrote: »

Sounds like we are done ?

For severe wintry weather? Yes, probably. But certainly there is interest in the synoptics and how it pans out between the 26th and 30th.

sryanbruen

Have made no comments on any of this so far in here because the stratosphere has been of far more interest in my opinion. I wanted to see trends before making a comment too.

There has been consistency for a seasonable spell at the very least with colder than average temperatures but if you're looking for bitter cold or crippling snow with deep drifts, then prepare to be disappointed. Looks to me like a series of polar maritime NW'lies, sometimes tilting more N, with heavily modified cold air. Some GFS runs have had more amplification courtesy of the Newfoundland low driving WAA northward allowing the mid-Atlantic ridge to build and become a blocking feature to the south of Greenland. This in turn would send a more significant residue of cold southward and more energy into Europe. ECM has never been interested in this with a more negatively tilted Atlantic ridge and less warm air being advected northwards.

Latest ECM and its ensembles show a less flat Atlantic ridge but still not showing the amplification that the GFS has been trending on and it looks like a northerly toppler affair although also looks like the kind of pattern that would be on a rewind with numerous attempts. There's also the outside risk of Arctic blocking sending a ridge southward into Scandinavia and link with the Russian high turning the winds into the east but there's little cold air to our east. Usually the ECM is the one with an over-amplification bias so it's a bit unusual to see the GFS like this - ECM usually loves its phantom easterlies.

Below average temperatures is the headline but from northwesterly or northerly winds and stay far away from anything suggestive of snowstorms or severe cold.

Villain

US2 wrote: »

Correct. Look at the last few pages of this thread , everyday it's pushed out another day or 2. A dangling carrot. Funny how it's the most knowledgeable posters that fall for it the most

It’s an Fi thread, it’s never over or done or certain in FI.

The fun is in the chase and with SSW on the chase is on.

Nabber

384hrs nice area of cold weather heading south.





Just some eye candy

lostweekend3

Nabber wrote: »

384hrs nice area of cold weather heading south.
]

Nice to look at and I know it’s the FI thread but it would be nice to see these charts appear in the nearer timeframe. If it was for the 27th -29th Dec I’d start getting very excited!

Snowbiee21

Nabber wrote: »

384hrs nice area of cold weather heading south.





Just some eye candy

All well and good, but the “eye candy” gets pushed out a day or two every day after a poor viewing of charts it seems.

John.Icy

It's not really being pushed out? The GFS is as you were with an initial attempt at height rises towards Greenland from the 26th. It flattens out then attempt 2 +300 hours.

Artane2002

I'm not sure why people are saying it's being pushed out, the 26th/27th have always been the days to watch.

also, does anybody have any verification stats for the models? from observation, I've noticed that the GFS has been performing better than the ECM and even the UKMO. I'm not saying this because it's showing what we want! the ECM ensembles have constantly been showing cold charts that haven't verified this winter. and now, the ECM is all over the shop while the GFS/GEFS have maintained remarkable consistency over the last few days. the EPS keep flipping from flatter to more amplified and back again. it's just an observation, it would be interesting to see if it's scientifically accurate.

ZX7R

Artane2002 wrote: »

I'm not sure why people are saying it's being pushed out, the 26th/27th have always been the days to watch.

also, does anybody have any verification stats for the models? from observation, I've noticed that the GFS has been performing better than the ECM and even the UKMO. I'm not saying this because it's showing what we want! the ECM ensembles have constantly been showing cold charts that haven't verified this winter. and now, the ECM is all over the shop while the GFS/GEFS have maintained remarkable consistency over the last few days. the EPS keep flipping from flatter to more amplified and back again. it's just an observation, it would be interesting to see if it's scientifically accurate.

Not scientifically accurate,
For the last 6 weeks the gfs has out performed the ecm
For where I live now in Poland.
The ECM outperformed the gsf on the type of perspiration forecast though.

Nabber

Snowbiee21 wrote: »

All well and good, but the “eye candy” gets pushed out a day or two every day after a poor viewing of charts it seems.

That's why it's an FI thread though. No need for deeper analysis other than blue good green bad.

Rebelbrowser

Decent looking GFS and GEM this afternoon. Anyone saying there is no chance of snow in the next two weeks is being very premature. Of course guessing it won't snow will be right 95% of the time, but the odds of snow in the next fortnight must be at least 25 to 30% (which of course still makes it an outside shot)

PukkaStukka

ZX7R wrote: »

Not scientifically accurate,
For the last 6 weeks the gfs has out performed the ecm
For where I live now in Poland.
The ECM outperformed the gsf on the type of perspiration forecast though.

Is that a new product they are offering?

Comhrá

PukkaStukka wrote: »

Is that a new product they are offering?

It is to be Sure.

Gonzo

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

Decent looking GFS and GEM this afternoon. Anyone saying there is no chance of snow in the next two weeks is being very premature. Of course guessing it won't snow will be right 95% of the time, but the odds of snow in the next fortnight must be at least 25 to 30% (which of course still makes it an outside shot)

So far there isn't any great signs of snow over the next 2 weeks, nothing substantial anyway. I do think most of us will see wintry falls of cold rain/sleet/wet snow at times with lying snow mostly reserved for high ground locations. As most of the cold is northerly based between now and New Year's Day, much of this would be rather dry too so I don't think we will be seeing much in the way of heavy rainfall/wintry mix in the run up to the New year.

We appear to be still at the evolving stage into a new weather pattern which contains alot of blocking and the possibilities of a multi stage warming and a major SSW forming in January is still very much open. Compare this to the past two winters and it's a world of difference. I am hoping that the charts we see in FI will develop further and maybe we might be in with a chance for some proper cold in January rather than the low level cold that will in place up to New Year's Day. So much to play for yet.

nacho libre

Gonzo wrote: »

So far there isn't any great signs of snow over the next 2 weeks, nothing substantial anyway. I do think most of us will see wintry falls of cold rain/sleet/wet snow at times with lying snow mostly reserved for high ground locations. As most of the cold is northerly based between now and New Year's Day, much of this would be rather dry too so I don't think we will be seeing much in the way of heavy rainfall/wintry mix in the run up to the New year.

We appear to be still at the evolving stage into a new weather pattern which contains alot of blocking and the possibilities of a multi stage warming and a major SSW forming in January is still very much open. Compare this to the past two winters and it's a world of difference. I am hoping that the charts we see in FI will develop further and maybe we might be in with a chance for some proper cold in January rather than the low level cold that will in place up to New Year's Day. So much to play for yet.

Yes, there is much to play for in terms of getting a more noteworthy cold spell courtesy of a SSW in early January.
The one caveat is that an SSW, assuming there even is one, may not work in our favour. Also, given that there is a disconnect between the stratosphere and tropopshere vortex could this have an adverse effect?

In the more immediate term, while there won't be substantial snow anywhere within the next 11 days, as we saw at the start of December there can be surprises, so low levels areas in the north and north west could get a covering of snow between now and the new year.

Villain

I do like an auld split