FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2020 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

ZX7R

Wine Goddess wrote: »

How snowy is it with you in Poland?

Every 4 to 5 days we are getting some snow not huge amounts depending on the position of the Russian high.
Temperatures are also jumping up and down due to the same reason.
Temperatures at ground level under the Russian high are average or just below despite the higher than average uppers .
There is cold there just need to open the doors

Slashermcguirk

Continental Europe has become so much warmer, the last couple of winters a write off. Last winter was the worst with no snow whatsoever in the likes of Helsinki, Stockholm and Germany and Poland had next to nothing. Even Moscow struggled to get snow, it’s so bizarre.

Stockholm has hardly had a day time temp below zero this winter. It’s scary stuff. I do think this winter might deliver better as even Ireland has been colder than usual but in terms of continental Europe temps, we get so much less snow than North America. Ireland and UK will always struggle to get snow at the best of times but you normally expect it in northern and Eastern Europe

compsys wrote: »

It's almost frightening seeing how warm the continent is in that set-up right in the middle of winter.

Is it just a mix of bad luck and very specific synoptics right now or is this what the 'new' winter will look like with global warming?

These past two or three winters it's even struggled to snow in many southern parts of Sweden and Denmark. It's crazy.

bazlers

Slashermcguirk wrote: »

Continental Europe has become so much warmer, the last couple of winters a write off. Last winter was the worst with no snow whatsoever in the likes of Helsinki, Stockholm and Germany and Poland had next to nothing. Even Moscow struggled to get snow, it’s so bizarre.

Stockholm has hardly had a day time temp below zero this winter. It’s scary stuff. I do think this winter might deliver better as even Ireland has been colder than usual but in terms of continental Europe temps, we get so much less snow than North America. Ireland and UK will always struggle to get snow at the best of times but you normally expect it in northern and Eastern Europe

It depends. It might be a long shot, but if we get a sutained north east there is significant cold pool in Finland. If we could tap into that....Its in the -40s there at present that would lead to some fun i would imagine

Slashermcguirk

Oh absolutely, I am just saying that parts of Europe that traditionally get very cold Winters are much milder in recent years. That can change quickly though

bazlers wrote: »

It depends. It might be a long shot, but if we get a sutained north east there is significant cold pool in Finland. If we could tap into that....Its in the -40s there at present that would lead to some fun i would imagine

Say my name

White Clover wrote: »

I would say if we get through the next 2 weeks without anything drastic, we're in the clear then and looking down the barrell at spring.
There is nearly always a bit of unsettled weather around these days every year.

Not near that I'm afraid.

Forecasts have the Atlantic firmly shut off for the foreseeable. Cold weather, a bit drier with the prospect of an easterly beasterly in January.

It's a bit different than our "normal" sw Atlantic weather.

bazlers

Slashermcguirk wrote: »

Oh absolutely, I am just saying that parts of Europe that traditionally get very cold Winters are much milder in recent years. That can change quickly though

Its true nearly every winter we would be envious of the coldin the continent. You dont feel as bad when no one else is in the freezer ; )

White Clover

Say my name wrote: »

Not near that I'm afraid.

Forecasts have the Atlantic firmly shut off for the foreseeable. Cold weather, a bit drier with the prospect of an easterly beasterly in January.

It's a bit different than our "normal" sw Atlantic weather.

Ah it probably won't be that bad. Once we don't get a bad fall of snow or very cold temperatures, it'll be ok. Spring is only around the corner.

Say my name

White Clover wrote: »

Ah it probably won't be that bad. Once we don't get a bad fall of snow or very cold temperatures, it'll be ok. Spring is only around the corner.

March is a long ways away still.

I'm looking for mild temperatures myself for a bit of work and I don't see it out to the FI.

endainoz

White Clover wrote: »

Ah it probably won't be that bad. Once we don't get a bad fall of snow or very cold temperatures, it'll be ok. Spring is only around the corner.

Way too early to make assumptions like that, it's nice to be optimistic all the same. Plenty of twists and turns to come yet I reckon.

blackwave

ZX7R wrote: »

Russian high is expected to move further east and south in the new year according polish forecasters opening the doors to the cold.

Living in Poland (Krakow) as well, is there any specific websites you use for the weather? Hopefully we will see a bit more snow soon than the small bit earlier in the month.

BLIZZARD7

GFS and ECM showing deep cold arriving to our near East/North East in the first week of Jan, meanwhile we have a building Griceland high steering winds in from the North east over Ireland, on current evidence I think we will get the ellusive deep cold arriving here eventually... charts over next few days should make for interesting viewing.

Gonzo

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

GFS and ECM showing deep cold arriving to our near East/North East in the first week of Jan, meanwhile we have a building Griceland high steering winds in from the North east over Ireland, on current evidence I think we will get the ellusive deep cold arriving here eventually... charts over next few days should make for interesting viewing.

this mornings GFS operational run was fairly poor showing a brief low level cold easterly and finishes on blowtorch south-westerlies trying to move up across the country and much of central to northern Europe. Very unlikely to play out like this. Several of the lower resolution GFS runs are showing deep cold getting very close to us but there are also several very mild runs also so I think we'll need another few days of model watching to see if we're going to tap into anything decent in the first half of January.

nacho libre

The thing is initially we could get a milder blip before any potential impacts from SSW show up. We need to be wary of the GFS spotting a trend, then dropping it, only to start showing it again. I don't think any milder pattern will last long, but I'm not going to purchase my ticket for the Siberian express just yet.

sryanbruen

GFS 06z is the kind of evolution I would like to see as the blocking retrogresses west and Russian high weakens allowing a northerly feed into Scandinavia. We almost get proper cold Arctic maritime air into Ireland but is just stopped by a low attacking from the south as heights rise over Iberia. Too far out to worry about details like that.

AO/NAO trends are very negative, the most negative I've seen them combined in winter time since 2017-18. So blocking for the foreseeable future will be aplenty.

ZX7R

blackwave wrote: »

Living in Poland (Krakow) as well, is there any specific websites you use for the weather? Hopefully we will see a bit more snow soon than the small bit earlier in the month.

I mainly use weather and radar polish version download trough play store as you get the articles from the polish met ect.
If you download the English version you will only receive the articles for England.
Couple of groups on Facebook are good also

Kermit.de.frog

sryanbruen wrote: »

GFS 06z is the kind of evolution I would like to see as the blocking retrogresses west and Russian high weakens allowing a northerly feed into Scandinavia. We almost get proper cold Arctic maritime air into Ireland but is just stopped by a low attacking from the south as heights rise over Iberia. Too far out to worry about details like that.

AO/NAO trends are very negative, the most negative I've seen them combined in winter time since 2017-18. So blocking for the foreseeable future will be aplenty.

It's almost perfect synoptically.

Disappointing there is no deep cold pool to tap...yet

Slashermcguirk

It’s actually warmer in krakow than it is in a Dublin. True sign that climate is going bananas

Nqp15hhu

Dunno about anyone else but here I have noticed winters are now colder on the back end rather than December. We seem to now get our snow in February and March.

Nqp15hhu

compsys wrote: »

I’m not sure if this is passive trolling or you trying to be wildly optimistic lol.

But February is often the coldest month in Ireland and in some years the coldest spell is during the first 10 days or so of March.

So I’m not sure what your rationale is for saying the above in December.

In fact, cold frosty weather can sometimes continue well into April.

The evenings are getting fractionally brighter. I’ll give you that...

It used to be that we got the snow in December but it seems to come in the back end now.

nacho libre

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

Dunno about anyone else but here I have noticed winters are now colder on the back end rather than December. We seem to now get our snow in February and March.

When I was younger, February was always the most likely month for snow. We used to get days off school sometimes, but i can't recall ever getting time off in December. The only time I really remember snow in December was 2000, 2004 and 2018.

Regarding the heights in Iberia in FI, hopefully that does not happen, because it makes it hard to get a proper cold outbreak in that scenario. We ideally want to see lower heights around that region for a sustained colder outbreak.

BLIZZARD7

nacho libre wrote: »

When I was younger, February was always the most likely month for snow. We used to get days off school sometimes, but i can't recall ever getting time off in December. The only time I really remember snow in December was 2000, 2004 and 2018.

2010

Kermit.de.frog

Starting to see signs of change in the models today and a bit more momentum.

A timely reminder if that high pressure builds close to us next weekend some very cold nights to be had. I suppose more importantly sets up a retrogression opportunity in to GL and the floodgates may open from the north.

John O.Groats

nacho libre wrote: »

When I was younger, February was always the most likely month for snow. We used to get days off school sometimes, but i can't recall ever getting time off in December. The only time I really remember snow in December was 2000, 2004 and 2018.

Regarding the heights in Iberia in FI, hopefully that does not happen, because it makes it hard to get a proper cold outbreak in that scenario. We ideally want to see lower heights around that region for a sustained colder outbreak.

Eh.... Decembers 2009 and 2010 both say hello do you remember me.

nacho libre

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

2010

Feck. How did i forget that one. I have talked about it often enough:D

Humberto Salazar

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

It's almost perfect synoptically.

Disappointing there is no deep cold pool to tap...yet

Signs in the FI ECM of very cold air seeping into Eastern Europe and Finland. Whether it will reach us in any form remains to be seen, it will be after the 6/7th Jan if so. And whether SSW comes into play, or not. Trend worth watching. And it is still going to be cold regardless next few days at least.

sryanbruen

GFS 12z is just bonkers. There is no other word for it. The zonal flow is completely reversed and is not even an outlier in its ensembles towards the lower end of FI albeit it seems a bit odd evolution to me. I wouldn't expect such a pattern to happen so quickly. This is without any major SSW event effects...

The cold air is teasing to the northeast and is all a matter of pulling that in via a direct NE'ly.

What a weird run.

nacho libre

The extent of the airflow from east to west on some FI charts is truly impressive. It's a rare sight to see the Atlantic shut off like this. Low heights completely gone from the New Foundland area it looks like. I wonder what the ECM will show tonight.

nacho libre

sryanbruen wrote: »

GFS 12z is just bonkers. There is no other word for it. The zonal flow is completely reversed and is not even an outlier in its ensembles towards the lower end of FI albeit it seems a bit odd evolution to me. I wouldn't expect such a pattern to happen so quickly. This is without any major SSW event effects...

.

Could be a stupid question, but is it possible that the GFS charts we are now seeing in FI, are actually the effects of prior warmings becoming established in the Troposphere before a technical SSW even occurs?

sryanbruen

nacho libre wrote: »

Could be a stupid question, but is it possible that the GFS charts we are now seeing in FI, are actually the effects of prior warmings becoming established in the Troposphere before a technical SSW even occurs?

Looks to be a case of tropospheric pattern driving the SSW. The 1987 major SSW event happened a few days after the beast was unleashed just as an example.

Vast majority of GEFS 12z show a prolonged cold spell with support for the operational and in fact the OP tended to be on the milder end which is mad.

Danno

Not often, the west coast of Norway sticks out as a drought spot!

The above chart is accumulated rainfall/snowfall over the coming 384hrs!

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_384_18.png