FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2020 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

Captain Snow

18zz turning into a unbelievable run.

sryanbruen

Stunner of an 18z, managed to jaw drop me even more than the 12z with proper cold entrenching Ireland from the northeast.

munsterlegend

sryanbruen wrote: »

Stunner of an 18z, managed to jaw drop me even more than the 12z with proper cold entrenching Ireland from the northeast.

Is this including SSW events in its predictions?

Gonzo

fantastic 18z tonight, looks very promising for things to turn quite a deal colder into the second week of January. The other runs are still updating and most of them have bitterly cold air getting close to us.

John O.Groats

Gonzo wrote: »

fantastic 18z tonight, looks very promising for things to turn quite a deal colder into the second week of January. The other runs are still updating and most of them have bitterly cold air getting close to us.

Close to but not over us?

Nabber

John O.Groats wrote: »

Close to but not over us?

Over us with -8 uppers



As it's been said by many before tho, there just isn't much cold in Central or Eastern Europe. Otherwise this thread would be hopping.
ECMF looking good to. Certainly al lot better than the usual Atlantic muck. Snow is not certain but the set ups are closer (better) to what we need.

icesnowfrost

Gonzo wrote: »

fantastic 18z tonight, looks very promising for things to turn quite a deal colder into the second week of January. The other runs are still updating and most of them have bitterly cold air getting close to us.

Agreed, just hope we have the precipitation about then it’s a marriage made in heaven

Gonzo

icesnowfrost wrote: »

Agreed, just hope we have the precipitation about then it’s a marriage made in heaven

yeah getting in the real cold is one thing but matching it with instability is another, and when those two match the next hurdle is trying to not fall into the shadows.

Billcarson

I always think - get the cold in first then chase the snow.
Always been my mantra.

Gonzo

many of tonights GFS runs are cold for the next 2 weeks with the possibility of a very cold spell in early to mid January, around the 12th or 13th. Not much precipitation either over the next 10 days with only patches of light rain/sleet or showers. The real cold is almost 2 weeks away and this looks to be when we start to turn more unsettled, however at the same time there are also a few mild runs towards the end of the ensemble.



So much can happen for better or for worse between now and then, let's hope we start seeing more upgrades soon.

hatrickpatrick

It's quite incredible to see synoptics as beautiful as these with a long-term blocked Atlantic and yet so much uncertainty with regard to cold to tap into! Hopefully the rest of the puzzle pieces align for us

Kermit.de.frog

...

Humberto Salazar

ECM continues this morning with an OK but not spectacular set of charts. I think MT has summed it up properly saying we're one turn of the dial away from either winter wonderland stuff or ordinary cold but uninspiring stuff. Definitely Rollercoaster territory. Maybe we will have to wait a bit longer. I'm half empty glass guy this morning.

lostweekend3

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

...

What’s that supposed to mean???

munsterlegend

lostweekend3 wrote: »

What’s that supposed to mean???

It means the charts this morning didn’t go down the cold route as much as one would like! but that’s the Irish climate for you always a rollercoaster unless it’s rain you want.

lostweekend3

munsterlegend wrote: »

It means the charts this morning didn’t go down the cold route as much as one would like! but that’s the Irish climate for you always a rollercoaster unless it’s rain you want.

There’ll always be wobbles in fairness with sea surrounding us

Little snowy old me

lostweekend3 wrote: »

There’ll always be wobbles in fairness with sea surrounding us

Broken clock and all that......

Reversal

06z GFS has undone the trend for the high pressure to settle closer to us. A shift north for the high, bringing in an easterly airflow that on the face of it is unstable. Cold enough for low level snow with -8 at the 850mb level. More runs needed but I wouldn't rule out being surprised over the next 10 days.

Snowbiee21

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

...

Not sure what is poor exactly. All singing from the same hymn sheet, Atlantic is dead. Pattern is developing, slowly like ECM has been showing or fast like GFS was showing.

People expecting big freeze for Ireland next week, they will be disappointed.

Gonzo

GFS Operational updated, ends with blowtorch south westerlies and +11 Uppers crossing the country from the Canarys and North Africa. This is a full 2 weeks away so very unreliable. This very mild air at the end of the operational will most likley be a very mild outlier. The rest of the runs still have to complete.

nacho libre

Well, some of the runs are a timely reminder that while we can have fantastic background signals, the devil is in the detail when trying to forecast for a small island- from shortwaves to a west based nao setting up things can easily go awry
Even M.T. Cranium can get sucked in as his forecast a few days ago was very promising, but he now is less certain about an even colder outbreak in the new year.
However, we are still very much in the game, future Runs could reflect that.
Also, the longer cooler air remains entrenched will lead to more surface cooling, so even if uppers don't go below -8, we can still get snow with less than ideal uppers in the days ahead.

Artane2002

Gonzo wrote: »

GFS Operational updated, ends with blowtorch south westerlies and +11 Uppers crossing the country from the Canarys and North Africa. This is a full 2 weeks away so very unreliable. This very mild air at the end of the operational will most likley be a very mild outlier. The rest of the runs still have to complete.

it is indeed a mild outlier while the control is the coldest of the bunch, it shows the high uncertainty at the moment.

Gonzo

Artane2002 wrote: »

it is indeed a mild outlier while the control is the coldest of the bunch, it shows the high uncertainty at the moment.

that very mild GFS is completely on it's own at the end, uppers of +10C at the start of January are not unheard of but very rare and unlikely to happen.

Still all to play for but very uncertain once we get towards the end of the first week of January. Looking at the extra extended range it appears we could have 2 colder interludes in January, one being the second week of January and then there are signs of possibly another cooling at the end of January.

Likely to be alot more ups and downs with this as it's all so far out, fingers crossed we finally hit the jackpot at some stage in January. it would be a real shame to get an average, mostly dry and bland 2 week cold spell only for it to slowly revert back to normality.

Slashermcguirk

At least this is proving a more interesting winter than the last couple. Many counties have seen snow already, others not but at least the outlook is cold and we have had very little by way of mild muck. There appears to be some very good potential for January, far better than looking at one Atlantic weather system after another.

Could be a very good winter yet

Hooter23

Well now that you said it will definately not be good...have we not learnt our lesson by now

BLIZZARD7

-16c 850hpa temps casually dropping down over us from the north... some seriously cold ensembles popping up

Artane2002

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

-16c 850hpa temps casually dropping down over us from the north... some seriously cold ensembles popping up

that perturbation had the -10c isotherm down to Portugal a day later, insanity! btw I just saw 2 other ensembles that had a similar depth of cold coming down from the north.

Reckless Abandonment

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

-16c 850hpa temps casually dropping down over us from the north... some seriously cold ensembles popping up

That would be to cold for snow then

Gonzo

GFS fully rolled out, increasing support for milder weather towards the middle of the month, looks chilly up to the 10th of January and a milder trend after that. A few bitterly cold runs too but they are very much outliers.

Snowbiee21

Gonzo wrote: »

GFS fully rolled out, increasing support for milder weather towards the middle of the month, looks chilly up to the 10th of January and a milder trend after that. A few bitterly cold runs too but they are very much outliers.