FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2020 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

lostweekend3

No expert but the ECM to my eye looks to be an improvement on this mornings run. Atlantic ridge extending up to Greenland on 27th.

John.Icy

With low pressure dropping down from the north and coming very close to us, there will be frontal snow opportunities. In those cases, you can get away with slightly less cold uppers so it's not all doom in those regards.

Rebelbrowser

John.Icy wrote: »

With low pressure dropping down from the north and coming very close to us, there will be frontal snow opportunities. In those cases, you can get away with slightly less cold uppers so it's not all doom in those regards.

Thats my hope too.

arctictree

GFS 06z T+144 Getting closer....

RobertKK

Looking at the BBC weather, they had plenty of charts for next week.
We are in a very cold period, the forecaster said it would be unsettled with rain, but then said with it being cold, it could become very interesting next week.
So it seems all point the same way for next week, cold and possibility of snow.

Kermit.de.frog

RobertKK wrote: »

Looking at the BBC weather, they had plenty of charts for next week.
We are in a very cold period, the forecaster said it would be unsettled with rain, but then said with it being cold, it could become very interesting next week.
So it seems all point the same way for next week, cold and possibility of snow.

It's a complex situation. On the one hand by day not a particularly cold elevated air mass given our proximity to the center of the circulation. However, this is countered somewhat by the fact the freezing level will be lower than usual for this situation which means snow can come down to lower levels more easily particularly in heavier precipitation.

It will be very cold at night though with temperatures widely below freezing. People will notice that.

I'd caution that this is still at a distance so we could yet see upgrades in the depth of cold.

I'm willing to give it a few more days to see what goodies are on offer.

Meteorite58

Yes complex is the word, quite unsettled, potential there for wet and windy weather at times, possibly wintry and could see snow falls, loads of different scenarios depending on position of LP's timing of frontal activity, position of cold airmass but it is certainly trending cold.

pauldry

Cold and Icy and some whiteness at times especially in mornings but complex low has all sorts of air circulating in it even though its cold sourced so its not all cold enough for snow just sectors of it.

Because of where the low is coming from though it wont be as messy as a cold Northwesterly maybe black ice will be a problem and therefore even wet snow will lie on cold surface.

typhoony

typhoony

1065hpa over Greenland

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=/charts/gfs/12_228_mslp500.png

nacho libre

Hopefully the yellows can make it to Greenland to make it a proper Greenland High

Villain

You got to love the pub run

Birdnuts

BBC tv forecast just now being surprisingly bullish on next week being "cold and wintery"

BLIZZARD7

Villain wrote: »

You got to love the pub run

East coast and beyond would be buried ala 2010 under this setup, East to North easterlies for about 5+ days straight with nice low pressure and a Greenland/Iceland high in situ...

Kermit.de.frog

Things looking ever more interesting this morning within 7 - 14 days. We are seeing ever colder projections atm. Plenty of entertainment to be had if we continue on this track.

Still cold for the rest of the week and snow for some of us from time to time. Bitterly cold nights.

Great to have optimistic outlooks

pauldry

Maybe they know we are in lockdown so a chart with High Pressure and Southwesterlies would mean no hits for their webpage!

typhoony

even though there doesn't appear to be any extreme cold to tap into you'd expect with an extended period of Northerly airflow that the charts will trend colder as we get into the weekend so that by mid next week the country is hovering around freezing during the day

Gonzo

looks wintry indeed on the latest charts, cold stretched out to the ends of FI and fairly unsettled from December 27th with temperatures lowering. It almost seems we are not that far from possibly tapping into some properly bitter air if this setup maintains itself well into January.

nacho libre

Yes, even if the coldest air does not get to us, the air in situ should start to cool down so long as there is no mixing from Atlantic sourced air. Some places should see snow over the next seven days!

pauldry

I think the period from Stephens night to Dec 28th is a period of potential snowfall in places. After that I would reckon the dreaded Atlantic will mix in bringing rain and sleet mostly.

Gonzo

pauldry wrote: »

I think the period from Stephens night to Dec 28th is a period of potential snowfall in places. After that I would reckon the dreaded Atlantic will mix in bringing rain and sleet mostly.

December 30th of January 5th is still cool but Atlantic air is thrown into the mix, hopefully the trend will become colder before then. The GFS turns quite snowy for Leinster from January 6th to 8th but that's a long way out.

nacho libre

If the lows are flabby and filling over us, perhaps any mixing of air would be lessened. No doubt we will see cold rain and sleet at times, but at least some part of the country would be very unlucky not to get some snow before the New Year.

Villain

I found the image of the Rollercoaster



Interesting setup for sure but I’m not convinced we’ll see snow in short term for many.

Reckless Abandonment

Fantastic model watching at the moment. Low drops down in the 27th/28th hangs around for a few days the another one (a bit colder) drops down in the 5th and all the time it cold from start to finish of the gfs 6z . There is so much going on with moisture available and cold someone has to strike white gold. The big question is will it he cold enough.

Gonzo

Reckless Abandonment wrote: »

There is so much going on with moisture available and cold someone has to strike white gold. The big question is will it he cold enough.

that is a downside to this possibly prolonged cold spell, while it does look cold, the uppers aren't bitterly cold because there is too much Atlantic modification and long sea fetch, there also isn't any real cold air around Europe yet, it's still up above Iceland and just north of Scandinavia so the uppers are ranging -3 to -6 for the most part.
This will be marginal I feel with many places getting cold rain with a mixture of sleet and possibly wet snow with lying snow more reserved for high ground.

There is the possibility that as this cold spell goes on our own cold pool will start to evolve and maybe then any precipitation that does fall becomes more snow rather than a wet mixture. We have time on our hands with this one as we are heading into the coldest part of mid winter and we have yet to see how this SSW plays out and it's effects over the next month. I will be amazed if most of us don't see at least one decent snow day at some stage between now and March because this is the best mid winter set up we have had in many, many years.

Roots 2020

Villain wrote: »

I found the image of the Rollercoaster



Interesting setup for sure but I’m not convinced we’ll see snow in short term for many.

Looks like wave 3 on a Covid chart!

BLIZZARD7

It's rare to see an op run with a black hole anomaly of high pressure over Greenland, especially at day 10, yet that is exactly what we have on tonight's ECM Ensemble MEAN chart -



The op run was a warm outlier in its latter frames but FI is only about +120hrs at the moment. Tis unusual to see such agreement about this at day 10 though. There should be lots more great model viewing over the festive period, with these synoptics we will start to see model runs showing deep cold visiting our shores soon, whether or not we get there in reality is a different question... Things are looking very promising though, more so than I have ever seen before at this time of year... :cool:

GFS leading the way in recent weeks.

Merry Christmas to all !

Artane2002

the GFS 18z lost its sanity... it's showing a 1050mb HP over Greenland on New Year's Eve (19:00) and lots of troughing/shortwaves over Europe, very very strange looking chart, lots of shortwaves all over the place. I'd love to upload the picture but it's such a pain doing it on this laptop.

JanuarySnowstor

Time for a thread on next week Kermit??
The 18z continues the trend of build towards new year!!
Ironic how global warming is delivering for our shores last 10 years!
Synoptically I've never seen the likes of it before!!

Snowbiee21

Artane2002 wrote: »

the GFS 18z lost its sanity... it's showing a 1050mb HP over Greenland on New Year's Eve (19:00) and lots of troughing/shortwaves over Europe, very very strange looking chart, lots of shortwaves all over the place. I'd love to upload the picture but it's such a pain doing it on this laptop.

Someone care to share the chart?