Turning Colder Thursday - Wintry Showers/Snow to High Ground

Kutebride · 02-12-2020 4:03pm

Overcast and freezing cold and a shower of rain. Meath.

Graces7 · 02-12-2020 4:08pm

That last almost horizontal deluge was nearly solid. ie almost icy hail. I stood in the kitchen watching it batter the window trying to work out was it rain or hail.

It will get very interesting later..:eek:;):D

Graces7 · 02-12-2020 4:09pm

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

If the showers we’re having right now are an indication of anything, tonight might be quite exciting!

Very heavy and prolonged.

We think alike! I did not read this before I posted... I have a feeling about this ..

igCorcaigh · 02-12-2020 4:10pm

Graces7 wrote: »

We think alike! I did not read this before I posted... I have a feeling about this ..

Cork will probably get a bit of sleet. If we're lucky

US2 · 02-12-2020 4:11pm

Average December week this is looking like. Suprised with all the hype

Kermit.de.frog · 02-12-2020 4:20pm

In relation to Donegal and Sligo the showers turning to sleet and snow this evening but probably a wet mix to the lowest levels until around midnight.

Meteorite58 · 02-12-2020 4:21pm

The Hi Res models now coming into focus. I would probably go with the AROME ahead of the others.

A few local showers today, not much here outside Tralee, 7.9C down from 9.1C , Dp 4.5C , windchill 4.8C

joeysoap · 02-12-2020 4:22pm

Cold in Dundalk but dry so far.overcast now after a very bright and sunny morning.

Meteorite58 · 02-12-2020 4:33pm

AROME not one to overdo it, more conservative then other models like the EURO 4 still showing some very low DP's going into Thurs evening.

CAPE levels not bad over water, will probably send in big Cb's loaded with hail along the coasts and maybe a bit inland, will see if any become electrified.

The Sat simulation showing up well the nature of the cloud structure coming in from the NW tomorrow.

The SW tomorrow evening hmmm....

Nqp15hhu · 02-12-2020 4:53pm

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

In relation to Donegal and Sligo the showers turning to sleet and snow this evening but probably a wet mix to the lowest levels until around midnight.

Yes this smacks of a typical northwesterly with the snow level dropping gradually with each hour, turning to snow about 11-12am.

I would think the snow level is about 500-600m right now.

Nqp15hhu · 02-12-2020 4:55pm

highdef wrote: »

You would be surprised. I have some video on youtube
that is a quick timelapse drive around my home turf in January 2013. The beginning of the video is the lowest altitude where there is virtually no sticking snow. About 40 to 60 seconds in the video is the highest altitude, less than 60m higher up, but snow is sticking readily to all surfaces and is beginning to accumulate.

So in short, a mere difference in altitude of less than 60m was the difference between wet ground and accumulating snow. This is approximately the height of Liberty Hall (59m) in Dublin, which means it's the equivalent of accumulating snow on the roof of the building whilst at the same time it's wet ground and puddles at street level.

I am talking about falling snow. The general rule is 300m below the freezing level for the snow to melt to rain or sleet.

SeaBreezes · 02-12-2020 5:07pm

igCorcaigh wrote: »

Cork will probably get a bit of sleet. If we're lucky

Dont be daft. Sleet counts as snow. Shield wont allow it :-(

nacho libre · 02-12-2020 5:11pm

US2 wrote: »

Average December week this is looking like. Suprised with all the hype

No one is expecting a foot of snow on the ground, if we are lucky some places may see a slight dusting overnight, but accumulations will probably be confined to higher ground. I think some of us are just happy to see some snow falling. It might also be a welcome distraction for some people...

Meteorite58 · 02-12-2020 5:15pm

Approaching weather from the WNW, becoming increasingly cold and veering more to the NW and N.

Some sleet showing up on radar in the N .

Graces7 · 02-12-2020 5:20pm

nacho libre wrote: »

No one is expecting a foot of snow on the ground, if we are lucky some places may see a slight dusting overnight, but accumulations will probably be confined to higher ground. I think some of us are just happy to see some snow falling. It might also be a welcome distraction for some people...

Well said. Thank you . Dark here already and I know that coasts come off poorly for snow, but happy to share in others' pleasure.

Still poised for that snowman and wish I had bought carrots! A snowman is not right without a carrot for a nose.. Will a banana work? lol

Gaoth Laidir · 02-12-2020 5:23pm

Latest wet-bulb temperatures. Need them to come down to <0.5 °C for snow, except in the heavier showers.

Nqp15hhu · 02-12-2020 7:03pm

The temp has sat at 4.9c for 2 hours. Why do these oceanic air masses always cool down in steps? From memory the Continental air masses usually drop down to minimum temps within an hour or two?

We will probably have to wait until after midnight before it snows.

Billcarson · 02-12-2020 7:11pm

Wonder how much cold rain I will get over the coming days, beats warmer rain anyway. At least it wont be mild

pad199207 · 02-12-2020 7:16pm

Billcarson wrote: »

Wonder how much cold rain I will get over the coming days, beats warmer rain anyway. At least it wont be mild

Cold rain and bitter cold? Can’t think of anything worse tbh.

Clonmel1000 · 02-12-2020 7:52pm

Billcarson wrote: »

Wonder how much cold rain I will get over the coming days, beats warmer rain anyway. At least it wont be mild

Seriously?

Monkeynut · 02-12-2020 7:58pm

pad199207 wrote: »

Cold rain and bitter cold? Can’t think of anything worse tbh.

cold rain and bitter cold. you run to the pub for shelter and heat up and its closed? :pac::pac::pac:

Nqp15hhu · 02-12-2020 7:59pm

There was large clumps of icy rain in that last shower which bodes well for later considering how high the dew point is.

SouthWesterly · 02-12-2020 8:00pm

Sleet at about 4 pm in Tralee. Temp approx 6C.

It's cold outside. Glad I got my heating upgraded last week

Billcarson · 02-12-2020 8:05pm

Clonmel1000 wrote: »

Seriously?

I was kinda taking the piss. Dont like rain at anytime. Though I do like seasonal temps or temps being on the chilly side.

My preferred weather at this time of yr in particular would be a cold frosty high pressure.

A bit of wintryness in precipitation is a bit of a waste of time unless perhaps one lives a few hundred metres asl.

Nqp15hhu · 02-12-2020 8:37pm

Temp gradually dropping, 3.5c now. I am not sure what the snow line would be? So not sure if it’s worth driving out to see.

Kermit.de.frog · 02-12-2020 8:49pm

So two things to watch - the snowline falling steadily from now on across the north and northwest. The frontal zones coming in to the west/southwest could also bring some falls of snow inland and particularly higher ground (but not exclusively) after initial rain later on in the night and toward morning. Not certain on that but one to watch.

JanuarySnowstor · 02-12-2020 9:13pm

Yes also watching the stuff in the southwest could well cause some high ground snow....particularly mountain tops

Nqp15hhu · 02-12-2020 9:22pm

I fear this is going to be a disappointing one. I just drove up to 350 metres in a shower, surprisingly only sleety rain was falling!

Terrible lapse rates too, from 3.5c at sea level to 1.5c at 350m. So the snow line must be at least 450m!

It is going to take a long time for THAT snow line to drop to low ground!

Gaoth Laidir · 02-12-2020 9:31pm

Since Met Éireann won't allow posting of their aviation charts, I've made up my own version. Valid at 00Z.

The black dashed lines show the freezing level, in feet. A showery trough lies across Ulster and the northwest, moving eastwards at 20 knots. An occlusion further north moves southeastwards at 20 knots.

The weather shows the coverage of showers and the visibility on the first line, with the types of showers in the second line.

OCNL=Occasional
ISOL=Isolated

+SHRA=heavy rain showers
-SHRA=light rain showers
SHRASN=moderate sleet showers
SHRAGS=moderate rain/small hail showers
TSRA=thunderstorms with rain, etc...

Gaoth Laidir · 02-12-2020 9:36pm

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

I fear this is going to be a disappointing one. I just drove up to 350 metres in a shower, surprisingly only sleety rain was falling!

Terrible lapse rates too, from 3.5c at sea level to 1.5c at 350m. So the snow line must be at least 450m!

It is going to take a long time for THAT snow line to drop to low ground!

The coldest air is not here yet. It will move down after midnight.

Now

Tomorrow morning

Nqp15hhu · 02-12-2020 9:40pm

Based on what I have just seen I would say we need a freezing level of 1000 feet minimum for sea level snow.

The air is just too saturated.

RobbingBandit · 02-12-2020 9:43pm

Has The Isle of Man shadow been spotted yet, I repeat has The Isle of Man shadow been spotted...

Meteorite58 · 02-12-2020 9:44pm

https://twitter.com/martinastro2005/status/1334217980708843524?s=20

highdef · 02-12-2020 9:44pm

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

I fear this is going to be a disappointing one. I just drove up to 350 metres in a shower, surprisingly only sleety rain was falling!

Terrible lapse rates too, from 3.5c at sea level to 1.5c at 350m. So the snow line must be at least 450m!

It is going to take a long time for THAT snow line to drop to low ground!

I was actually going to reply to your previous post and estimate a snowline of at least 400m but probably nearer 500m. Depending on where you are in the country (???), by dawn it should be down to about 250/300m if you're in the southwest and about 200m if you are further towards the northwest, perhaps less during heavier precipitation in all areas and less again if you are further inland from western coasts.

GL also beat me to it about the colder air proper not having arrived here yet. I'd take another 100m off those figures regarding the snowline by late tonight/early tomorrow.

Nqp15hhu · 02-12-2020 9:49pm

Meteorite58 wrote: »

https://twitter.com/martinastro2005/status/1334217980708843524?s=20

That’s a strange one.

Nqp15hhu · 02-12-2020 9:52pm

highdef wrote: »

I was actually going to reply to your previous post and estimate a snowline of at least 400m but probably nearer 500m. Depending on where you are in the country (???), by dawn it should be down to about 250/300m if you're in the southwest and about 200m if you are further towards the northwest, perhaps less during heavier precipitation in all areas and less again if you are further inland from western coasts.

GL also beat me to it about the colder air proper not having arrived here yet. I'd take another 100m off those figures regarding the snowline by late tonight/early tomorrow.

I just thought it might be snowing as the temp is 3.5c close to sea level but no. I think the air is saturated meaning the snow level will literally be at the freezing level.

highdef · 02-12-2020 9:52pm

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

That’s a strange one.

Snow on the Glenshane Pass is strange? It's often one of the first parts of the island of Ireland to see snow.

Meteorite58 · 02-12-2020 9:55pm

Netweather

Dew points

Sleet getting heavier it would seem

Nqp15hhu · 02-12-2020 9:57pm

This is the sounding for midnight in the north. So I can see why it’s sleeting at 350m. That is a very saturated airmass.

One where the snow level and freezing level are almost equal.

The situation does not change at 6am. So I am thinking no snow below 200metres.

As always the temps are not the issue but the dew point and wet bulb temperature.

Gaoth Laidir · 02-12-2020 10:02pm

Lough Fea station is just south of the Glenshane Pass and more or less at the same altitude. WBT has been hovering around 3 degrees this evening. I definitely would not take radar precip type as gospel. It does not show exactly what's falling right at the surface and is more or less useless. All stations have been reporting rain showers.

Nqp15hhu · 02-12-2020 10:04pm

I am thinking the precipitation is falling as snow about 400-450m.

Gaoth Laidir · 02-12-2020 10:24pm

WBT slowly coming down. Lough Fea now 2.1 C at 9 pm. Still rain reported at all stations.

Belfast Aldergrove's TAF has no mention of snow at all up to 6 pm tomorrow.

circadian · 02-12-2020 11:17pm

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

That’s a strange one.

The Glenshane often has snow/sleet considering it's elevation.

Meteorite58 · 02-12-2020 11:36pm

Charts continue to show very windy from Friday afternoon.

Winchill making it feel very cold

Nqp15hhu · 02-12-2020 11:44pm

The temperature is steady at 3.8c, WB is 2.8c.

I am not very hopeful, I don’t think it is going to happen tonight. It is a very “weak” cold spell for this time of the year, normally we would see snow fall by December.

I need to build a house at 2,000 feet.

Nqp15hhu · 02-12-2020 11:49pm

Tomorrow, it looks as though the freezing level is 200-400metres in the morning but the showers have mostly disappeared.

So it looks to be a case of the air taking time to dry out. We may see some snow showers in the morning but I don’t think anyone will see anything tonight.

So if you want to see snow go hiking. That’s what I’ll be doing tomorrow.

US2 · 02-12-2020 11:54pm

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

The temperature is steady at 3.8c, WB is 2.8c.

I am not very hopeful, I don’t think it is going to happen tonight. It is a very “weak” cold spell for this time of the year, normally we would see snow fall by December.

I need to build a house at 2,000 feet.

It's the second day of December. We don't normally get snow this early.

highdef · 03-12-2020 12:09am

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

The temperature is steady at 3.8c, WB is 2.8c.

I am not very hopeful, I don’t think it is going to happen tonight. It is a very “weak” cold spell for this time of the year, normally we would see snow fall by December.

I think almost all posters on this thread have been expecting very little to nothing to occur regarding snowfall for tonight. Also, snow this early into the winter is quite rare away from high ground.

Nqp15hhu · 03-12-2020 12:38am

Temps down slightly, wB is 2.1c.

Nqp15hhu · 03-12-2020 12:40am

highdef wrote: »

I think almost all posters on this thread have been expecting very little to nothing to occur regarding snowfall for tonight. Also, snow this early into the winter is quite rare away from high ground.

I expected to see some snow in the early hours tonight as the models pointed that way. It looks touch and go now though.

We need the temps to drop 2c.

Turning Colder Thursday - Wintry Showers/Snow to High Ground

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