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Turning Colder Thursday - Wintry Showers/Snow to High Ground

  • 30-11-2020 1:24am
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 21,794 ✭✭✭✭ Kermit.de.frog


    Thursday 3rd --> Sunday 6th

    Turning colder from the northwest. Source of the cold air is the east coast of Greenland so it will be carrying a bite. As well the weather becoming ever more anti cyclonic from Thursday morning.

    Increasingly unsettled with snow on high ground but to lower levels at times as well. Night time frosts and icy patches.

    Wintry showers heaviest and most persistent in the north and west but there will be several frontal troughs around effecting other parts as well.

    Remaining cold in to the early days of next week as well.

    Daytime temperatures between 2 and 9c - coldest in the east and midlands.

    Night time temperatures 0 - -3c, coldest again in the east and midlands.

    There is a risk of significant snowfall for the end of the week and weekend on high ground above circa 350 metres particularly further east. Minor desposits at lower levels occasionally (1 - 2 cm) particularly through early Friday.


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    There is also a risk of local flooding through the weekend with persistent heavy showers/rain.

    On the up side it won't be particularly windy at any stage.


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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 31,665 ✭✭✭✭ Mars Bar


    I've been stranded in the middle East due to the virus and made attempts to get home twice, unsuccessfully. I'm due to land in Dublin at about 10.30pm on Thursday night. If it could just pace itself until I land and then it can bucket it down all it likes!

    I'm going to die a death in those temps though. I put on a jacket at 20 degrees :o


  • Registered Users Posts: 30,406 ✭✭✭✭ Graces7


    Hastily mentally checking to see if there is anything I absolutely need this week from over the water.... the ferry will be fine but the roads may not be...

    Already stocked, and everything by the dwelling.... Let it rip! Maybe that last snowman I have been hankering for for years will get built..

    I took this either last year or the one before... Hoping we do better than this

    And there will be great delight here....


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,847 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    December has gotta bring a blizzard. After all its 2020.

    All Ireland Semis might be in snow this year.


  • Registered Users Posts: 23,306 ✭✭✭✭ lawred2


    This sounds like a forecast for some bitterly cold muck


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,847 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    Yes inland will prob do best.

    Coastal locations will be 7c by day and prob 3 or 4c by night due to wind


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  • Registered Users Posts: 30,406 ✭✭✭✭ Graces7


    pauldry wrote: »
    Yes inland will prob do best.

    Coastal locations will be 7c by day and prob 3 or 4c by night due to wind

    Yes we tend to lose out. Although not in Orkney! Further north of course. And it was windier there than here by far.


  • Registered Users Posts: 353 ✭✭ YanSno


    Dew point and temp profiles are too marginal, sleet and wet snow at best on high grounds above 300m


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,539 ✭✭✭✭ Supercell


    lawred2 wrote: »
    This sounds like a forecast for some bitterly cold muck

    That's all I'm expecting here to be honest, not looking forward to it.

    Have a weather station?, why not join the Ireland Weather Network - http://irelandweather.eu/



  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,254 ✭✭✭ Nqp15hhu


    YanSno wrote: »
    Dew point and temp profiles are too marginal, sleet and wet snow at best on high grounds above 300m

    With freezing levels of under 500 metres it should surely snow below 300 metres, especially at night.

    The forecasts actually predict subzero mins on Thursday night anyway, so that shouldn’t be a factor.


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,368 ✭✭✭ Danno


    Supercell wrote: »
    That's all I'm expecting here to be honest, not looking forward to it.

    https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?p=105514334

    The December 10th 2017 is an interesting comparison/benchmark for this event.


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  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,254 ✭✭✭ Nqp15hhu


    Soundings from tropical tidbits. The wet bulb zero level is at sea level in the NW of the island by 6am. With it being around 400m at midnight.

    Thursday evening is subzero across the island.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,254 ✭✭✭ Nqp15hhu


    Soundings from south to north on Thursday. So not productive for snow during the day on Thursday. But yes by afternoon (except south).


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,549 ✭✭✭ Cluedo Monopoly


    High ground?? Excellent!


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 15,171 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Gonzo


    High ground?? Excellent!

    yep high ground only, Thursday will be a wet and cold day for most us, temperatures 2 to 5C and cold rain.

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    81-580UK.GIF?30-6

    Mostly dry after Thursday and some wintry showers near western and northern coasts over the weekend, maybe a few flirting with eastern coastal areas.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,254 ✭✭✭ Nqp15hhu


    High ground?? Excellent!

    There may be some snow in the evening showers as temperatures drop.

    But you can always drive to higher elevations to get your snow fix!


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,297 ✭✭✭ Hooter23


    Just cold enough for the rain to feel like ice but not cold enough to turn it to snow...Great


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,720 ✭✭✭ White Clover


    Is this event moreso for the Northern part of the Country?


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,254 ✭✭✭ Nqp15hhu


    The lying snow line will be around 400m, not 750.


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,549 ✭✭✭ Cluedo Monopoly


    Nqp15hhu wrote: »
    There may be some snow in the evening showers as temperatures drop.

    But you can always drive to higher elevations to get your snow fix!

    I love winter hill walking so I will head up as soon as I see white peaks.


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,368 ✭✭✭ Danno


    The timing for the bands of precipitation will play a part. Nocturnal cooling can be a factor. It is a marginal event looking at the model outputs, but still time for this to upgrade/downgrade.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 30,406 ✭✭✭✭ Graces7


    OK; anyone want to join in a Snow Dance?


  • Registered Users Posts: 118 ✭✭ KingJeremy


    Graces7 wrote: »
    OK; anyone want to join in a Snow Dance?

    I will!!!


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,254 ✭✭✭ Nqp15hhu


    ECMWF has similar 850hPa’s as the ICON on Thursday. So unless a milder low pops up this is the synoptic situation for Thursday.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,384 ✭✭✭ JanuarySnowstor


    Thursday has upgraded all the way through today and now looks like we could see disruptive snowfall for higher ground in the West and South.
    All the parameters are met and considering its quite early in the season is indeed remarkable.
    Leaving 2010 aside seeing snow falling before Christmas is as rare as hens teeth!!


  • Registered Users Posts: 19,020 ✭✭✭✭ Water John


    Just saw Joanne Donnelly mention the 528 Line today. Can any of the experts explain what that is? I know it's the demarcation of the possibility of snow, but what does the number stand for?


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,384 ✭✭✭ JanuarySnowstor


    18z is a cracker with the cold spell going on and on
    Daytime maxes around 4 or 5 with very frosty nights early next week
    Best start to Winter since 2010!!


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,254 ✭✭✭ Nqp15hhu


    On the ICON 18z Thursday has been upgraded. The warmish uppers for Thursday have been replaced by -6c 850pHa. Dew points are now subzero during the day and Ulster appears to be productive for snow throughout the day.

    “Limite Pluie Neige” refers to the snow line for precipitation type by elevation.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,254 ✭✭✭ Nqp15hhu


    Thursday is a cold day.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,254 ✭✭✭ Nqp15hhu


    Water John wrote: »
    Just saw Joanne Donnelly mention the 528 Line today. Can any of the experts explain what that is? I know it's the demarcation of the possibility of snow, but what does the number stand for?

    It refers to the depth of the air column between 500mb and 1000mb.

    At 528dcm this refers to a “thinner” air column meaning that the colder air is closer to the surface.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,915 ✭✭✭ Slashermcguirk


    I always had a feeling about this December that something might materialise with snow. It’s been such a strange year including the weather being so up and down. I wouldn’t be at all shocked to see a decent bit of snow this winter


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